Iraq
As Iraqi election officials tally the votes from Sunday’s parliamentary elections, the Obama administration faces some difficult choices in the weeks and months ahead. Despite the apparent success of the election and the limited violence associated with it, there is the potential for uncertainty in the coming months as Iraqi parties wrangle for control of a new governing coalition.
The Obama administration appears tempted to claim political credit and move on. Last month, Vice President Biden said that Iraq “could be one of the great achievements of this administration.” President Obama, in his Rose Garden remarks after voting ended on Sunday, said that “the future of Iraq belongs to the people of Iraq,” and repeated previous promises that by the end of next year, all U.S. troops would be out of Iraq.
This comes as some question whether the United States should renegotiate, or at a minimum extend, the 2008 Status of Forces Agreement that mandated this U.S. withdrawal from the country and instead allow for a continued U.S. presence in Iraq beyond 2011. There has been a marked improvement in the security situation in Iraq, but Iraq’s future remains uncertain, especially if the U.S. moves out of Iraq too quickly. It will be interesting to see whether the administration is willing to take such action if conditions on the ground deteriorate and if so, how it will reconcile this real world need with the desires of a Democratic base that was promised an end to the war in Iraq by a candidate who ran touting his opposition to the war.
In Sunday’s Washington Post, there was a hint that even if Iraq does not progress as quickly as many hope, the administration may not display the political courage it showed last year when President Obama decided to send additional troops to Afghanistan, contravening the wishes of his base. Karen DeYoung, quoting an unidentified senior administration official, wrote:
"If Iraq were to fall backward into some kind of chaos," the administration official said, "in the first instance it would be bad for the Iraqis." "Given the huge investment that was made in troops and treasure over the years, I imagine some would say we need to do something to prevent it," he said, adding that there are contingency plans for slowing or reconfiguring the U.S. withdrawal. "But I don't think there'd be any great appetite for going back in."
This is a troubling sign that “one of the great achievements of this administration” might be squandered if the going gets tough in Iraq. This seems shortsighted given the thousands of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars the United States has sacrificed in setting Iraq on the path to a secure democratic future. Even setting aside the scale of the U.S. commitment thus far, the United States has a strategic interest in ensuring Iraq’s success and in continuing to remain involved in Iraq’s security.
If President Obama and Vice President Biden are serious about preserving their supposed accomplishment, the Obama administration should begin to lay the groundwork for an extended U.S. presence in Iraq, rather than continuing to focus on a withdrawal timeline driven solely by politics.
After initially playing down the scope of the violence during Sunday's parliamentary elections in Iraq, the U.S. military has concluded in an internal assessment that at least 37 people were killed in 136 attacks. U.S. officials have hailed the vote as a milestone event that proceeded with little disruption, and they disputed election-day media reports of widespread violence. But the military has since concluded that at least 30 of Sunday's attacks, which included bomb blasts, rocket attacks and small-arms fire, killed or wounded people. A U.S. official provided the data to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity because it is at odds with the public statements of senior military officials. – Washington Post
Iraq’s electoral commission is expected to announce partial results of parliamentary elections by Thursday, a United Nations official said, offering an incomplete picture of the vote that will nevertheless provide the broad outlines of the country’s political landscape. The results were initially expected Wednesday evening, but Ad Melkert, the United Nations special representative in Iraq, said he hoped the results would be released by Thursday. Iraqi officials did not immediately confirm the delay. “We hope that as soon as possible preliminary results can be made public because Iraqis have the right to know as soon as possible the outcome of their choice of election day,” Mr. Melkert told a news conference on Wednesday. Party officials have acknowledged that after Sunday’s voting, a relatively small number of seats may separate Iraq’s leading coalitions, a sign that negotiations to form a new government could be protracted. Although the slates of candidates led by Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki and Ayad Allawi, a former interim prime minister, appear to be doing best, officials with a predominantly Shiite Muslim coalition predicted they would come in third and perhaps second. – New York Times
As troops massed on his border near the start of the Persian Gulf War, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein weighed the purchase of a $150 million nuclear "package" deal that included not only weapons designs but also production plants and foreign experts to supervise the building of a nuclear bomb, according to documents uncovered by a former U.N. weapons inspector. The offer, made in 1990 by an agent linked to disgraced Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, guaranteed Iraq a weapons-assembly line capable of producing nuclear warheads in as little as three years. But Iraq lost the chance to capitalize when, months later, a multinational force crushed the Iraqi army and forced Hussein to abandon his nuclear ambitions, according to nuclear weapons expert David Albright, who describes the proposed deal in a new book. Iraqi officials at the time appear to have taken the offer seriously and asked the Pakistanis for sample drawings as proof of their ability to deliver, the documents show. "With the assurance of [Iraqi intelligence agency] Mukhabarat . . . the offer is not a sting operation," an Iraqi official scrawls in ink in the margin of one of the papers. – Washington Post
With vote counting under way but incomplete, Iraq’s political parties have begun to jockey for position, with the three major blocs all claiming a strong showing in Sunday’s election. The State of Law coalition, headed by the prime minister, Nouri al Maliki, won in key provinces, according to early indicators collected from polling centres. Ayad Allawi, the leader of the Iraqiyya list, appeared to be his main challenger. A senior Iraqi official with access to privileged election information, said initial indications put Mr Allawi ahead in Mosul, Anbar, Diyala and Salahadin. Mr al Maliki was in front in Baghdad, Basra, Karbala and Babil. The official, who is not affiliated to any party and who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Mr al Maliki appeared strongest nationwide. If accurate, these results would be a blow to the Iraq National Alliance, a largely Shiite coalition made up of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and the Sadrists, followers of the cleric Muqtada al Sadr. They had been tipped as strong contenders. – The National
Iraq’s electoral commission said Tuesday that it would announce partial results of parliamentary elections on Wednesday, providing an incomplete picture of the vote that will nevertheless provide the broad outlines of the country’s political landscape. Party officials have acknowledged that after Sunday’s voting, a relatively small number of seats may separate Iraq’s leading coalitions, a sign that negotiations to form a new government could be protracted. Although the slates of candidates led by Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki and Ayad Allawi, a former interim prime minister, appear to be doing best, officials with a predominantly Shiite Muslim coalition predicted they would come in third and perhaps second. The Kurds were expected to fare well, too. Turnout in the three provinces of the autonomous region they control in northern Iraq was among the highest in the country. “I think all the major four alliances have won between 60 to 90 seats each,” said Hadi al-Ameri, a lawmaker and candidate with the Iraqi National Alliance, the largely Shiite Muslim coalition. “The other major lists won between 5 to 10 seats each.” – New York Times
Michael Rubin writes: If President Obama wishes Iraq to succeed, it is crucial that he gear U.S. policy toward strengthening the system of governance in Iraq, rather than base U.S. relations on personalities. Indeed, if Talabani steps down, he can pave the way for a new generation of leader—perhaps one less tainted by corruption—to take the helm. Talabani can play a crucial role as an elder statesman and, indeed, cap off a career by ensuring a smooth transition while he still can. – The Enterprise
Christian Whiton writes: Iraq took another major stride Sunday in the elections it held. But the potential benefits to the U.S. from progress there is being squandered by the Obama administration, which remains wedded to a policy of forced estrangement. Rather than engage in vigorous diplomacy to create a partnership with Iraq that could alter the region dramatically for the better, team Obama seems focused instead on having as little to do with Iraq as possible. It still sees Iraq only through the lens of domestic politics, as it did in the 2008 presidential election. Even some Democrats on Capitol Hill are beginning to worry. – Fox Forum
Editorial: President Obama deserves credit for resisting his own calls in 2008 for a quick American withdrawal. U.S. forces are considered by all sides to be honest brokers and guarantors of stability. So it was unfortunate to hear Mr. Obama, with the polls barely closed and no votes counted, promptly declare the election makes it possible that "by the end of next year, all U.S. troops will be out of Iraq. Too much blood and treasure have been spent there to make the mission hostage to a political calendar. The nature of America's engagement will change in Iraq, but it needs to be sustained and robust. Imagine if the GIs had left Germany eight years after World War II or abandoned the DMZ in Korea prematurely….Free Iraq also represents a great U.S. strategic opportunity. As Turkey turns away from Europe (in part after having been turned away) and Iran pushes for regional hegemony, Iraq can now become a strong U.S. ally in the region if we don't abandon the field. A strong presence in Iraq gives the U.S. important leverage against a rogue regime in Tehran bent on acquiring a nuclear weapon. We heard for years that toppling Saddam Hussein was a mistake because it empowered Iran. Now that Iraq is emerging as a unified democracy, the government in Baghdad can be a counterweight to Iran without the brutality and threat to the region that Saddam represented. Even as the number of U.S. troops declines, a sustained U.S. commitment will serve Iraq, the larger Middle East and American strategic interests. – Wall Street Journal
Early estimates from a range of Iraqi parties on Monday predicted a coalition led by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki would take the lead in the parliamentary election, though official results were not expected for a few days. A win by Mr. al-Maliki could signal Iraqis' rejection of the religious parties that have dominated the country since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. The prime minister has been trying to distance himself from his party's religious roots and portray himself as more of a nationalist…Turnout for Iraq's second election for a full parliamentary term was 62 percent of about 19 million eligible voters, the election commission said. That is lower than the last full parliamentary election in December 2005, in which roughly 76 percent of eligible voters turned out…Abbas al-Bayati from Mr. al-Maliki's State of Law coalition said early information from the coalition's representatives showed the coalition's list did well in Baghdad and in the Shi'ite south. Baghdad accounts for 70 seats in parliament. But one seat is mandated as Christian and another for minorities, meaning 68 are up for grabs. The results are likely to produce three other main blocs. Following Mr. al-Maliki's coalition are expected to be the former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's Iraqiya alliance and the religious Shi'ite Iraqi National Alliance. It is not clear which of those two will come out ahead. – Associated Press
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