Russia
The White House cautioned March 9 it would not "rush" a long-awaited new arms reduction treaty with Moscow, after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the deal could be ready within three weeks. Russian and U.S. negotiators have been holding intensive talks to agree a new treaty to replace the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) that expired in December without a successor agreement in place. The talks have been complicated by disagreements over a range of issues, including U.S. plans for a missile defense system in eastern Europe. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said both sides were working through the last remaining sticking points in the way of agreeing a new treaty and that the U.S. side hoped for a successful conclusion "in short order." But Gibbs also appeared to hint that the Americans would not fast-track the process just to get a new deal signed before President Barack Obama's nuclear nonproliferation summit in Washington in April. "If it takes, quite frankly, many more weeks past April to get something that we believe is in our best interest, then we're not looking to rush the negotiations," to allow time for a pre-summit signing ceremony, Gibbs said. – AFP
When President Obama got on the telephone with President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia last month, he was under the impression that they were finally close to wrapping up a long-delayed arms control treaty that he had originally expected to sign in December. But to Mr. Obama’s surprise, Mr. Medvedev was not ready to sign off on a deal and raised issues that required more discussion, American officials said. As he hung up, the officials said, a frustrated Mr. Obama realized that the two sides were not as close as he had thought and sent negotiators back to the table. The fitful effort to fashion a treaty that would be a signature achievement of his presidency has demonstrated the hurdles Mr. Obama faces in his drive to reset relations with Russia after years of tension. After months of delay and discord, administration officials said, they have learned that when it comes to deal-making with Moscow, nothing is done until it is done, and rarely will it go as smoothly as anticipated. Negotiators are making a fresh effort this week to break the logjam and finish by the end of the month, so they can showcase the new treaty at an international summit meeting on nuclear nonproliferation that Mr. Obama will host in Washington in April. Underscoring his determination to seal the deal, he sent Ellen Tauscher, the under secretary of state for arms control, to Geneva to help resolve remaining differences, and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton plans to travel to Moscow next week. – New York Times
The outlook for imposing tough new U.N. sanctions on Iran is increasingly grim, as Russia and China work to slow down a U.S. and European drive for swift action, Israel's U.N. envoy said on Tuesday. The United States, Britain, France and Germany have agreed on a watered-down proposal for a fourth round of U.N. sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program and given it to Russia and China for comments. Russia's initial reaction has been negative and China has not reacted, Western diplomats say. "It now seems that Russia and China are still dragging their legs and they are still looking to the diplomatic track," Israel's U.N. Ambassador Gabriela Shalev told reporters at U.N. headquarters. "We are more than suspicious because these diplomatic overtures took over the last years and the Iranians are mocking them," she said. Western diplomats say they had hoped to get a sanctions resolution through the Security Council next month but that timeframe is now looking increasingly unrealistic. - Reuters
Jackson Diehl writes: I recently asked several senior administration officials, separately, to name a foreign leader with whom Barack Obama has forged a strong personal relationship during his first year in office. A lot of hemming and hawing ensued…Finally, I was offered a name I didn't expect: Dmitry Medvedev. Obama, I was assured, has built a solid relationship with the Russian president during their several bilateral meetings, which have focused in part on a new nuclear arms control agreement that both could count as a distinctive achievement. But the deal hasn't been clinched -- maybe because Vladimir Putin, whom Obama has held at arm's length, doesn't like it. And could it really be that an American president has found his closest foreign partner in the Kremlin? The paradox here is that Obama remains hugely popular abroad -- from Germany and France to countries where anti-Americanism has recently been a problem, such as Turkey and Indonesia. His following means that, in democratic countries at least, leaders have a strong incentive to befriend him. And yet this president appears, so far, to have no genuine foreign friends. In this he is the opposite of George W. Bush, who was reviled among the foreign masses but who forged close ties with a host of leaders -- Aznar of Spain, Uribe of Colombia, Sharon and Olmert of Israel, Koizumi of Japan. – Washington Post
Boris Nemetsov says: I believe that the [International Olympic Committee] is under very strong pressure from Putin and there is an informal relationship between him and the committee. Eventually, there will be an international investigation to bring to light why this decision [to let Sochi host the games] was made. Whether it happens before or after the Olympics will depend on the level of interest of the international community. But the truth will come out and the IOC will have to answer for it. – Foreign Policy
Vladimir Kara-Murza writes: The “good cop, bad cop” trick must be one of the oldest in the book. Yet, unfailingly, this unsophisticated tactic continues to yield results, as illustrated by Russia’s ruling tandem of Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev…The “democratic reformer” has been in the Kremlin for two years. Yet political prisoners remain behind bars, television remains under government control and opposition rallies are still dispersed by police. In fact, Mr. Medvedev effected only two noticeable political changes, raising the presidential term from four years to six, and establishing the Interior Ministry’s “Center Eh” tasked with monitoring political dissent—the equivalent of the infamous Fifth Main Directorate of the Soviet KGB. Dmitry Medvedev has a different style from Vladimir Putin. He speaks in a soft and intelligent manner. Unlike his mentor, he never talks of “wiping terrorists in the s---house” or “cutting it off so that it never grows again.” But it is Mr. Medvedev’s record, not his words, which should serve as the only true measure of his presidency. – World Affairs Journal
Daniel Goure writes: The Obama Administration and the Medvedev-Putin government of Russia approach the issue of strategic arms control from diametrically opposed positions. For the U.S. administration the threats of concern are those posed by the nuclear weapons themselves in the event of crises, their potential for being proliferated or falling into the hands of terrorists, and the problem that the maintenance of a secure deterrent can create for the attainment of a positive relationship between Moscow and Washington. This reflects the views held by many U.S. strategists that the challenge to an improved political relationship is the maintenance of a security strategy based on deterrence. The U.S. approach to nuclear arms control is based on a fallacy: that both sides would be better off if the role of nuclear weapons in their respective security strategies were minimized. Many U.S. observers mistakenly believe that Russia’s political and security interests are largely parallel to those of the United States. They assume that the threats the West sees from so-called rogue states and terrorist groups acquiring weapons of mass destruction are those that also concern Russia. This is not the case. Today, Russia is in greater need of maintaining the mutual hostage relationship created by strategic deterrence than perhaps at any time since the end of World War Two. – Early Warning
The Kremlin on Thursday said Ukraine should stick to existing gas deals with Russia, drawing a line on a divisive issue expected to be in focus during Viktor Yanukovich's first visit to Moscow as Ukraine's president. While it marks a fresh start in political ties that soured under Yanukovich's pro-Western predecessor, the visit may be dominated by economic issues such as cash-strapped Ukraine's bills for Russian natural gas. Yanukovich, inaugurated last week, comes to Russia days after his first foreign trip as head of state, to Brussels, where he pledged to keep Ukraine on the reform path and ensure it remains a reliable gas transit route. Europe, which gets a fifth of its gas needs from Russia via Ukraine, is hoping Yanukovich's more pro-Russian stance can guarantee he will avoid repeating the price disputes which led to supply cuts to Europe in recent years. But many analysts believe Kiev's desperate public finances mean Yanukovich must change a long-term gas deal signed in 2009 by his election rival, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, which made Russian gas more expensive for Ukraine than for most European countries. – Reuters
Russian communists paid homage on Friday to Soviet leader Josef Stalin, while liberals accused the Kremlin of conniving to whitewash the dictator. Communist Party chiefs led a procession of largely elderly people across Red Square on the 57th anniversary of Stalin's death, laying flowers at his grave by the Kremlin wall. The solemn visit is an annual tradition for communists steeped in nostalgia for the Soviet era. But this year, it comes as Russia's bitter debate over Stalin's legacy sharpens ahead of May 9 celebrations marking 65 years since the Nazi defeat. For the first time in decades, Stalin's image may appear among the banners and posters that Moscow authorities put up for Victory Day, which will draw foreign leaders to Moscow as guests of the government. – Reuters
Russia and China have urged Iran to accept a UN nuclear fuel proposal aimed at easing concerns about its atomic program, while U.S., British, and French envoys have said it is time for new sanctions. The statements by the five permanent, veto-wielding UN Security Council members highlighted the different views dividing the United States, Britain and France from Russia and China as they struggle to agree on what should be done to persuade Iran to halt its nuclear-enrichment program. Russia and China, which have reluctantly supported three rounds of UN sanctions against the Islamic Republic, renewed their calls for diplomacy and dialogue. - Reuters
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