FPI Overnight Brief: December 6, 2010

Runoffs in Egypt’s parliamentary elections were held on Sunday amid a general mood of public disinterest and quiet resignation after it became clear from the first round that the ruling party was determined to eliminate any meaningful opposition. – New York Times

Editorial:  The Obama administration appears to be thoroughly intimidated by Hosni Mubarak - when what it ought to be worried about is who or what will succeed him. – Washington Post

Jackson Diehl writes: In the end Turkey depends on European trade and investment; it wants a democratic Iraq, a non-nuclear Iran and NATO's success in Afghanistan. It still recognizes Israel. It is, in essence, a genuine Muslim democracy - which means that it is both more difficult and, in a way, more of an ally than it used to be. – Washington Post

Diplomatic cables obtained by WikiLeaks and made available to several news organizations offer the most intimate view to date of the wily, irreverent and sometimes erratic Yemeni autocrat, who over the past year has become steadily more aggressive against Al Qaeda. But he appears determined to join the fight on his own terms, sometimes accommodating and other times rebuffing American requests on counterterrrorism. – New York Times

The portrait of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh that emerges from a series of leaked U.S. diplomatic cables is that of a skillful operator - sometimes erratic, often exasperating and always looking for a handout - who knows that he has considerable leverage over his American interlocutors. – Washington Post

Yemen is seeking greater international assistance to fund and train more of its law-enforcement organizations to help it battle al Qaeda and other security problems, Yemeni Foreign Minister Abubakr al-Qirbi said. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Dozens of Yemeni legislators [Saturday] summoned a senior defence official to testify about allegations, contained in a secret US cable disclosed by WikiLeaks, that he lied to parliament about air strikes last year that reportedly killed dozens of civilians. – The National

Syria's fresh interference in Lebanon and its increasingly sophisticated weapons shipments to Hezbollah have alarmed American officials and prompted Israel's military to consider a strike against a Syrian weapons depot that supplies the Lebanese militia group, U.S. and Israeli officials say. – Washington Post

Graham Allison and Olli Heinonen write: According to Syria's contract with the IAEA, the agency must be provided access to locations that have benefited from its technical support. More specifically, the safeguards agreement allows the IAEA to conduct a "special inspection" of the Dair Alzour site and other suspected sites. On Dec. 3, a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers called upon President Obama to press the IAEA to conduct such an inspection. Otherwise, the world risks awakening to a Syria that has become the next North Korea. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Ayad Allawi had hoped his political coalition's strong showing in Iraq's parliamentary election would propel him to the job of prime minister. But after more than eight months of acrimonious negotiations, the secular Shiite lost his fight - and is now the greatest uncertainty as Shiite incumbent Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki moves forward with forming a new government. – Washington Post

Diplomatic cables leaked to a Lebanese newspaper show that Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki pumped dozens of loyalists to his Shiite party into the security and intelligence services in the lead-up to Iraq's March 7 elections. – Washington Post

Saddam Hussein’s Iraq was a regional menace that sent shudders through its neighbors. Today’s Iraqi leaders are struggling to restrain the ambitions of the countries that share Iraq’s porous borders, eye the country’s rich resources and vie for influence – New York Times

While the political and security consequences of the American withdrawal have yet to be fully resolved, its economic effects have already taken a sharp toll on the tens of thousands of Iraqis who earned their livelihoods, sometimes at great risk, working for the military and the legions of American civilian and defense contractors. – New York Times

A string of bomb attacks, two of them aimed at Iranian pilgrims, rippled through Iraq’s capital on Saturday morning, breaking a stretch of relative calm as the country’s new government slowly takes shape. – New York Times

Intelligence officials say foreign fighters have been slipping back into Iraq in larger numbers recently and may have been behind some of the most devastating attacks this year, reviving a threat the U.S. military believed had been almost entirely eradicated – Associated Press

Report:  Iraq still hangs in the balance. The dramatic improvements in Iraqi security between 2007 and 2009 have produced important, but incomplete changes in Iraq’s politics. These changes make it possible to imagine Iraq slowly muddling upward, building gradually toward a better future. However, Americans must be constantly on guard against the considerable potential for Iraq to slip into all-out civil war. There are dozens of scenarios— from military coups, to official misconduct, to the assassination of one or two key leaders—that could spark such violence. – Brookings Institution Saban Center

Six world powers began two days of talks with Iran on Monday to seek reassurances that Tehran’s nuclear ambitions are peaceful. – New York Times

Iran on Sunday claimed for the first time to have used domestically mined uranium ore to make the material needed for uranium enrichment. It called the step a major advance in its atomic program, sending a defiant message before a new round of talks on Iran’s suspect nuclear activities. – New York Times

Mr. Mottaki—speaking at a regional security conference here a day after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington remained committed to negotiations with Tehran—said that his government wouldn't back down from its policy of enriching nuclear fuel on its own territory. – Wall Street Journal

Arab angst about Iran's nuclear ambitions has been exposed, perhaps giving the United States greater leverage in international talks scheduled for [this] week. – Washington Post

Even after three days with all government offices closed, the Iranian capital continues to be cloaked in a cloud of noxious, dangerous gas that some are describing as hopeless. – Babylon and Beyond

Iran told Arab states in the Persian Gulf on Saturday that it was not a threat and wanted cooperation, in what seemed to be an attempt to lower tensions after revelations that Gulf states were worried about its nuclear program. - Reuters

Ray Takeyh writes: The Islamic Republic's diplomacy is a delicate balancing act between competing and contradictory objectives. The regime's regional ambitions require nuclear weapons, and yet its predicament necessitates nuclear negotiations. To manage this paradox, Iran will seek a protracted diplomatic process that may involve some modest concessions but avoids a larger nuclear settlement – Los Angeles Times

Steve Hayes and Tom Joscelyn write: Nearly a decade after the 9/11 attacks, not only do we have abundant evidence that Iran, the world’s foremost state sponsor of terror, supports al Qaeda. We also have evidence that Iran actively assists terrorists and insurgents targeting our soldiers and diplomats in two war zones. Why are our leaders so afraid to talk about it? – The Weekly Standard

Reuel Marc Gerecht writes: If the Obama administration and the Europeans actually understood the opposing side, they would realize the sanctions now on the books are not nearly enough to make Khamenei blink. Islamic history is littered with defeated religious militants. But they were defeated. They didn’t arrive at a new understanding of their faith through diplomacy and negotiations.  – The Weekly Standard

Leaked U.S. diplomatic cables are shedding new light on the atmosphere of suspicion and tension between the U.S. and China surrounding a massive rupture between Google Inc. and the Chinese government. – Wall Street Journal

That cable from American diplomats was one of many made public by WikiLeaks that portray China’s leadership as nearly obsessed with the threat posed by the Internet to their grip on power — and, the reverse, by the opportunities it offered them, through hacking, to obtain secrets stored in computers of its rivals, especially the United States. – New York Times

After decades of importing and reverse-engineering Russian arms, China has reached a tipping point: It now can produce many of its own advanced weapons—including high-tech fighter jets like the Su-27—and is on the verge of building an aircraft carrier...In the past two years, Beijing hasn't placed a major order from Moscow. Now, China is starting to export much of this weaponry, undercutting Russia in the developing world, and potentially altering the military balance in several of the world's flash points – Wall Street Journal

China will tighten monetary policy next year, the country's Communist Party leadership said Friday, signaling the world's second-largest economy will likely slow down in the coming months to combat inflation and settle into a more sustainable pace of growth. – Los Angeles Times

Now that Susan Schwab, who was U.S. Trade Representative under President George W. Bush, has left public life, she’s free to say what she really thinks about the state of trade relations with China.  “Foreign firms are in fact discriminated against in this market,” Ambassador Schwab, now a professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, declared at a panel discussion Saturday hosted by the Italian Embassy in Beijing. – China Real Time Report

Yang Jianli writes: Liu Xiaobo has said, "I have no enemies." We are all interested in improving the quality of life in China. By allowing Liu Xia to take her seat in Oslo, you would show the world that your government embraces those who want to improve China. You would show the world that the Chinese government is strong and that it does not fear criticism but embraces it as necessary for improving society. – Washington Post

President Obama and President Hu Jintao of China talked by telephone on Monday about North Korea, culminating 13 days of effort by the White House to persuade China’s leaders to discuss a crisis that many experts fear could escalate into military action. – New York Times

Brushing aside North Korean warnings of war, South Korea began live-fire artillery drills on Monday, less than two weeks after the North’s shelling of a South Korean island sharply escalated tensions between them. – New York Times

The United States has stepped up diplomatic pressure on China by accusing its leaders of "enabling" North Korea to start a uranium enrichment program and to launch attacks on South Korea, a senior U.S. administration official said this weekend. – Washington Post

The U.S. and South Korea struck a deal to revive a broad pact that could drop barriers on a wide array of goods and services, setting the stage for what would be the biggest nation-to-nation trade deal since the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. and South Korea,in finalizing a sweeping free-trade agreement that had been stuck in legislative limbo since 2007, made compromises that drew some political criticism here over fairness—but likely not enough to prevent ratification. – Wall Street Journal

North Korea's state media maintained its barrage of criticism at South Korea and the U.S. on Sunday, saying Seoul was "far from drawing a lesson from the deserved punishment" of the North's attack on the South's Yeonpyeong Island nearly two weeks ago. – Wall Street Journal

With prospects of war in Korea escalating in recent weeks, the Pentagon is scrambling with contingency plans for how to respond to all scenarios there while still engaged in Afghanistan and Iraq, analysts said. – Washington Examiner

As Yeonpyeong Island’s few remaining civilian residents start to pick up the pieces from the sudden bombardment, which killed two South Korean marines and two civilian construction workers, many wonder whether it will ever fully recover. Many, like Mr. Chang, are giving second thought to living on the island, which is also host to a garrison of 1,000 marines and is just eight miles from heavily armed North Korea. – New York Times

A majority of Muslims around the world welcome a significant role for Islam in their countries' political life, according to a new poll from the Pew Research Center, but have mixed feelings toward militant religious groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. – Los Angeles Times

Providing fuel for GOP arguments against repealing the 1993 law prohibiting openly gay individuals from serving in the military, two of its most-senior officers [Friday] told senators that overturning the gay ban this year would be disruptive to the combat force. – National Journal

The commission, whose full report was to be released Dec. 1, called for cancellation of the troubled V-22 Osprey program, capping it at 288 aircraft, while substituting MH-60 helicopters to meet some of the Osprey’s planned missions. The commission also called for cancellation of the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV) and the F-35B version of the Joint Strike Fighter, all of which would add up to almost $43 billion in savings, but at severe emotional cost to the Corps, which has long held the Osprey and EFV as centerpieces of its modernization strategy. – Aviation Week

FPI Policy Advisor John Noonan writes: In the end, the real enemy is further dallying. The Air Force needed this jet a decade ago; the longer we wait, the more the overall buy will cost. Crafting a strong, annual competition between Boeing and EADS, replacing both the KC-135 and the KC-10, and swiftly standing up squadrons of new tankers should be a top priority of the new Congress. – The Weekly Standard

ICYMI, Rep. Buck McKeon writes: Cutting defense amid two wars to pay down the deficit is a non-starter for me as we must honor our commitment to our war fighters. However, Congress should not fund the Defense Department unless we mandate a culture of fiscal responsibility within the Pentagon and cut out excess and waste – USA Today

The battle lines between supporters of the whistle-blowing Web site WikiLeaks and its detractors began to form on Sunday, as supporters erected numerous copies of the site on the Internet and the United States put pressure on Switzerland not to offer a haven to the site’s founder, Julian Assange. – New York Times

Speculation was growing Friday that WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is hiding somewhere in Britain after British police requested additional information from Swedish authorities seeking his arrest. – Washington Post

WikiLeaks, which has sought to leverage the anonymity and ubiquity of the Internet in its efforts to make public secret information, is struggling to keep its Web site online without interruption. – Washington Post

In the world of diplomacy, known for its ambiguity and opacity, the WikiLeaks organization says its function is to “keep government open.” But with the release of some 250,000 American diplomatic cables, the outcome may be more ambiguous, closing doors to United States diplomats, turning candor to reticence and leaving many people leery of baring their souls and secrets to American officials. – New York Times

In a classic case of shutting the barn door after the horse has left, the Obama administration and the Department of Defense have ordered the hundreds of thousands of federal employees and contractors not to view the secret cables and other classified documents published by Wikileaks and news organizations around the world unless the workers have the required security clearance or authorization. – New York Times

As the political storm over their release of 250,000 secret American diplomatic cables continues, the WikiLeaks Web site and its founder, Julian Assange, are facing new legal and operational challenges from Swedish prosecutors and from one of the online payment services that have been used to channel donations to the whistle-blowing organization. – New York Times

Mort Zuckerman writes: We should think of cyberattacks as guided missiles and respond similarly—intercept them and retaliate. This means we need a federal agency dedicated to defending our various networks. You cannot expect the private sector to know how—or to have the money—to defend against a nation-state attack in a cyberwar. One suggestion recommended by Mr. Clarke is that the our government create a Cyber Defense Administration. He's right. Clearly, defending the U.S. from cyberattacks should be one of our prime strategic objectives. – Wall Street Journal

Nine years after the United States vowed to shut down the money pipeline that finances terrorism, senior Obama administration officials say they believe that many millions of dollars are flowing largely unimpeded to extremist groups worldwide, and they have grown frustrated by frequent resistance from allies in the Middle East, according to secret diplomatic dispatches. – New York Times

When the European Parliament ordered a halt in February to an American government program to monitor international banking transactions for terrorist activity, the Obama administration was blindsided by the rebuke. – New York Times

The latest disclosures by the WikiLeaks website have struck a blow against what many experts say was one of the key reforms to emerge from the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks: the push to widely share sensitive information among the massive intelligence bureaucracy. – Los Angeles Times

Nearly a decade after the 9/11 attacks, a succession of less spectacular but nonetheless traumatic subsequent outrages, and a bloody and expensive "war on terror" that has extracted a fearful price in life and treasure in Iraq and Afghanistan, it seems hard to accept that there could be any misunderstanding or underestimation of the threat posed.  Yet Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, who headed the Central Intelligence Agency's counterterrorism weapons of mass destruction (WMD) department during President George W. Bush's administration, thinks that may be happening. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

The United States has identified hundreds of sites around the world that it fears could be targeted in terrorist attacks. - Telegraph

The relationship is part of Iran's effort to gain a foothold in the region by courting Bolivia, Venezuela and other left-leaning countries in Latin America with aid and business partnerships. The new ties help give both Iran and Bolivia greater international recognition as Iran seeks to challenge U.S. influence, experts say. – Washington Post

After an illness nearly killed Mr. Castro in 2006, Cuba's bearded revolutionary general vanished from public view, handing the island's reins to his brother Raul. No one knew what Mr. Castro would do when he returned from the sickbed, or even whether he ever would.  But Mr. Castro resurfaced this summer, and those who have spoken with him say he carries a surprising new obsession: Convincing the world nuclear weapons may soon destroy the planet. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. government is turning to elite units of Mexican marines to go after drug cartel bosses in aggressive "capture or kill" missions, providing intelligence and training to bolster what officials say is Mexico's most trustworthy and nimble force. – Washington Post

The diplomatic cables also show just how entwined the United States has become in Mexico’s drug war. The United States government provides Mexico with intelligence to pinpoint where top drug lords are hiding out, trains elite troops, and American officials discuss strategy to try to quell the violence in Ciudad Juárez, which has become ground zero in the drug war. But the cables suggest frustration that the military, the police and prosecutors are not up to the task – New York Times

A 14-year-old boy who says he's been killing or working for drug cartels since he was 11 has been captured by the Mexican army after a monthlong hunt, authorities said Friday. – Los Angeles Times

In a cable from the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City, dated October 2009, President Calderon is described as telling the former U.S. director of national intelligence, Dennis Blair, that he believed Chavez had "funded" his top opponent and nemesis in the race three years earlier, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. – La Plaza

President Obama told U.S. troops in Afghanistan that success is within reach during a brief, unexpected visit Friday night that came amid a series of embarrassing setbacks in the effort to turn around the faltering war – Washington Post

The Afghan president and the Pakistani prime minister on Saturday disputed the accuracy of derogatory information contained in leaked U.S. diplomatic cables, calling some of the allegations in the dispatches absurd. – Washington Post

Afghans are more pessimistic about the direction of their country, less confident in the ability of the United States and its allies to provide security and more willing to negotiate with the Taliban than they were a year ago, according to a new poll conducted in all of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. – Washington Post

Four officials of an Afghan election commission were arrested on Sunday by President Hamid Karzai’s government, which has been deeply critical of the panel’s handling of disputed parliamentary elections. – New York Times

A suicide bombing Sunday that the Taliban claims was carried out by an Afghan army recruit killed two members of the United States-led international force in eastern Afghanistan, military officials said. – Los Angeles Times

Coalition and Afghan security forces have captured a "key" financier for a little-known, radical wing of the Taliban known as the Mullah Dadullah Front, which is led by a former Guantanamo Bay detainee – Long War Journal

The International Security Assistance Force has confirmed that a second Taliban commander was killed in a mid-November airstrike on a Taliban command and control center in Kajaki, a district in northern Helmand province that has seen an increase in ISAF activity over the past several weeks. – Long War Journal

As in Iraq, the eventual U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan depends on an ambitious American-led effort to train hundreds of thousands of Afghan security forces to beat back the resurgent Taliban and hold areas that have been cleared of militants. But as NATO trainers race to convey the basics of modern warfare before U.S. forces start to withdraw in July, Afghan troops don’t yet appear capable of stepping into the breach the Americans will vacate – National Journal

Now we know, from the granular picture of engagement-in-action that emerges from that trove of 250,000 WikiLeaks cables, many from the first 13 months of the Obama presidency. Mr. Obama’s style seems to be: Engage, yes, but wield a club as well — and try to counter the global doubts that he is willing to use it. – New York Times

As it dismantled its nuclear weapons program, Libya sparked a tense diplomatic standoff with the United States last year when it refused to hand over its last batch of highly enriched uranium to protest the slowness of improving ties with Washington, leaked U.S. diplomatic memos reveal. – Associated Press

Key U.S. allies, such as Britain, Germany, Italy and France, say they must slash billions of dollars from defense spending if they are to rein in runaway budget deficits that have spooked investors and put a question mark over the continent's economic recovery. But some officials and observers fret that it's not just personnel and materiel being scaled back, but Europe's reach and ambition. They warn that the cuts will further widen the European-American gap in firepower, even as other nations such as China and Iran continue to beef up their military capabilities. – Los Angeles Times

President Dmitry Medvedev will make more strides to build a “reset” in the country’s relationship with Poland when he begins a two-day official visit to Warsaw on Monday. – Moscow Times

A Russian aide to a House of Commons member of the Defense Select Committee has been detained by the security services on suspicion of espionage and faces deportation, the lawmaker said Sunday. – New York Times

Greek police officials said Sunday that they had averted an imminent terrorist attack by arresting six people believed to be linked to domestic terrorist activities, including two suspected members of a group that had claimed responsibility for letter bombs sent to embassies in Athens and foreign leaders last month. – New York Times

The authorities have dismissed software piracy charges against one of Russia’s most well-known environmental groups after Microsoft indicated that it would no longer support the case. – New York Times

Three Russian satellites were believed to have crashed into the Pacific on Dec. 5 after the rocket carrying them failed to reach orbit following their launch, the defense ministry said. - AFP

Editorial: The Obama administration has offered no public indication that this lawlessness will have any effect on its "reset" of relations with Moscow. U.S. officials may believe that quiet diplomacy will be more effective, and they understandably wish to preserve the benefits of their outreach to the regime, such as greater Russian cooperation on Iran. But as previous U.S. presidents have demonstrated, it is possible to challenge and even to penalize Kremlin rulers for their human rights violations while still pursuing initiatives such as arms control. – Washington Post

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Saturday that nuclear energy will now be the focus of Indo-French cooperation as the south Asian country aims to increase its power generation capacity to sustain brisk economic growth. – Wall Street Journal

David Headley, the Pakistani-American who pleaded guilty in U.S. federal court to aiding the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks, identified voices of some key conspirators in the gruesome shooting spree, a top Indian official said. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Months before the Obama administration this year urged Congress to provide $2 billion in military aid to Pakistan as part of an ongoing strategy to win over a reluctant ally in the war on terror, Washington's top diplomat in Islamabad had flatly warned that a cash-for-cooperation approach would never work. – Los Angeles Times

At least 50 people died in massive blasts believed to have been triggered by two suicide bombers in northwestern Pakistan on Monday, government officials said. The pair of deadly bombings left more than 100 people wounded, many in a critical condition, the officials said. – New York Times

The State Department has stated in a cable from Peshawar, Pakistan, that it is skeptical about eventually winning the military struggle in Pakistan's badlands, saying peace talks go nowhere and murderous militants control key towns. – Washington Times

A Pakistani court has ordered the arrest of two senior police officers in connection with Benazir Bhutto's assassination, reviving hopes for a breakthrough in Pakistan's most pressing political mystery. - Guardian

Amid charges of voter intimidation and other pre-election problems, the leader of the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission, which is organizing the vote, was reported to have requested a three-week delay, although this weekend the vote appeared to be following its planned schedule. Nonetheless, those who turned out to register on Sunday were optimistic about the vote and its outcome – Washington Post

In recent months, a considerable number of Americans have joined or tried to join Somalia's radical al-Shabab militia, raising concerns among U.S. officials that they could one day pose a threat to the United States.  But Americans of Somali descent have also returned to their motherland to help prevent al-Shabab from gaining power. They are part of a large community of Somali expatriates who have arrived here from all over the world to join Somalia's fragile transitional government despite immense risks. – Washington Post