FPI Overnight Brief: July 24, 2012

Middle East/North Africa

Iran
 
Several thousand Iranians protested rising prices of food—and chicken in particular—in the northeastern city of Neishabour, in what appeared to be the first incident in which the country's beleaguered economy sparked street unrest. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Despite an Iranian assertion on Monday that its athletes would compete against Israeli ones at the 2012 Games, just hours earlier the Iranian team departed for London, leaving behind the lone athlete who had the possibility of facing an Israeli opponent. – Washington Post
 
Talks on the Iranian nuclear program continue at a low level, even as prospects for a peaceful outcome grow increasingly grim. – AOL Defense
 
Stepped up economic measures against Iran "could yet deal a knock-out blow to the country's development of long-range ballistic missiles," a British think tank said in a report this month – Global Security Newswire
 
Analysis: Banished from Iran's political mainstream after disputing the results of the 2009 presidential election, reformists are seizing on economic crisis and the threat of war as opportunities to mount a fresh bid for power. - Reuters
 
Emanuele Ottolenghi writes: The West should finally abandon its hesitation and more openly and aggressively support efforts by Iran's opposition to bring about change inside their country. The sooner Iran's regime collapses, the better. The better-prepared Western powers are when that happens, the less likely a transition is to result in chaos and create a breeding ground for extremism. – Wall Street Journal Europe
 
Bennett Ramberg writes: If the decision to apply force were made, the international community can prevent an Iranian nuclear rebirth through inspectors who have the authority to destroy remaining nuclear contraband. - Politico
 
Syria
 
Sixteen months into the uprising in Syria, the United States is struggling to develop a clear understanding of opposition forces inside the country, according to U.S. officials who said that intelligence gaps have impeded efforts to support the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. - Washington Post
 
 Syria's government acknowledged for the first time Monday that it had weapons of mass destruction, saying it has the capability to use its chemical and biological weapons in case of a foreign attack. – Wall Street Journal
 
Five days later, however, it is becoming clear that the eruption of violence in Damascus may have been just another battle in what still could be a protracted war. – Washington Post
 
Senior level Obama administration officials are now holding regular high-level meetings to discuss the ongoing situation in Syria and begin thinking about U.S. priorities in a post-Assad era, a senior U.S. official told CNN Monday. – CNN’s Security Clearance
 
Iran is in an "open war" with Israel, President Shimon Peres said Monday, as he pointed the finger at Iran and Hezbollah for last week's bombing in Bulgaria that killed five Israelis. – CNN’s Security Clearance
 
One striking message from [yesterday]’s meeting of European Union foreign ministers was,  that while officials are depressed by Syria’s escalating violence and disintegrating diplomacy, following last week’s vetos from Russia and China on a resolution from the United Nations Security Council, they increasingly believe that Bashar al-Assad’s days are numbered. – WSJ’s Real Time Brussels
 
The latest wave of Syrians fleeing to neighboring Lebanon doesn’t always fit the image of bedraggled refugees escaping with only the clothes on their backs. Some arrive in style to this Lebanese border post, barely an hour’s drive from Damascus, pulling up in air-conditioned SUVs, accompanied by entourages of domestic workers. – LA Times’ World Now
 
Residents of the central Damascus battlezone of Midan hit out at armed rebels as well as the government on Monday, as they picked through the wreckage of a conflict that holds a mirror to the unfolding war for the capital. – Financial Times
 
Explosions and gunfire rocked one Damascus neighborhood on Tuesday and residents elsewhere buried their dead after days of fighting between Syrian rebels and forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad. - Reuters
 
Syrian authorities have arrested a person said to have carried out a bomb attack last week that killed four senior security officials, an Iranian news agency reported on Tuesday. - Reuters
 
The number of Syrian refugees fleeing fighting in their country has reached 115,000 and aid agencies must develop a plan to deal with the growing humanitarian emergency, EU officials said on Monday. - Reuters
 
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that Syria's crisis must be resolved through negotiations not force, and warned that if President Bashar al-Assad's government was toppled a civil war could continue. - Reuters
 
Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said the uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is "closer than ever to victory" and warned that Turkey will respond firmly to any hostility from Syria. - Reuters
 
The head of the Arab League has said the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad cannot last for long, saying its days were numbered in an interview published in the pan-Arab newspaper al-Hayat on Tuesday. - Reuters
 
FPI Executive Director Jamie Fly writes: Amidst all of this uncertainty, one thing is clear. The Obama administration is completely unprepared and possibly unwilling to shape Syria's future. What is also clear is that in recent months and even this week, the United States has sent a horrible message to tyrants elsewhere about the (non-existent) costs of mass killings of innocents. – Shadow Government
 
Bret Stephens writes: Now we know what the George Costanza-esque "do the opposite" approach to Syria has yielded: A secretary of state inclined to give Assad a pass when the Syrian revolt began; an administration that took months to call for the dictator's ouster; a U.S. that has helped Assad buy time by insisting that only the U.N.—where he is defended by Russia and China—could sanction any kind of action. It's true that the administration has gradually changed its tune. But did 10,000-plus Syrians have to die in order to bury the myth that Assad's apologists had constructed for him? – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
North Africa
 
What’s this? Egypt’s new Islamist leaders want to raze the Great Pyramids, scratch away the images on the death masks of the pharaohs, maybe even wipe the grin off what is left of the face of the Sphinx? Someone who reads a lot of right-wing blogs in the United States these days might be forgiven for thinking so, though there is no sign here that any such Islamist clamor to destroy the monuments of ancient Egypt has actually arisen. – New York Times
 
The White Nile plant eventually opened in July, months later than planned, after a sanctions waiver licence was granted to the software company. The delay highlighted how difficult it has become for Sudan to find a way out of economic crisis in light of the continuing US sanctions regime – Financial Times
 
Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi has asked Hisham Kandil, the water minister little known outside Egypt, to form a new government, state media reported on Tuesday. - Reuters
 
Egypt is allowing freer temporary entry for Palestinians into the country in an unprecedented move that eases long-imposed travel restrictions, particularly on Gazans, Egyptian and Palestinian officials said Monday. – Associated Press
 
Iraq
 
The question facing U.S. officials is whether the mass killings, which have accelerated throughout the summer, represent a return to sectarian war or a resurgence of al-Qaeda. – Washington Post
 
As the death toll from Monday's string of terrorist attacks in Iraq climbed over 100, Defense Department officials say the country's military and police forces will be able to hold off a newly resurrected al Qaeda in the country. – DEFCON Hill
 
The White House defended President Obama's decision not to leave U.S. troops in Iraq after the worst violence in two decades thrust the troubled country back in the headlines Monday. – The Hill’s Global Affairs
 
Two bombs killed nine people in Iraq late on Monday, police and hospital sources said, taking to 116 the death toll in a string of coordinated bomb and gun attacks against mostly Shi'ite Muslim targets - Reuters
 
Israel
 
The Israeli government has asked its Supreme Court to allow the demolition of eight Palestinian hamlets in the South Hebron Hills so the area can be used for military training. – New York Times
 
A Palestinian prisoner who had refused to eat for more than 100 days, demanding release from detention, is ending his hunger strike, according to an attorney and prison officials. – LA Times’ World Now
 
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's former top political partner put him on notice on Monday he would not back Israeli military "adventures", comments that appeared to caution against possible action against Iran. - Reuters
 
Turkey
 
With Turkey mulling further curbs on already limited press freedom, Akinan’s story illustrates how Twitter is emerging as a powerful tool to bypass – and discredit – the country’s muzzled news outlets. – Christian Science Monitor

Asia

Afghanistan
 
[T]he new [mining] laws are now in limbo after a group of Afghan cabinet ministers and senior officials last week objected to the draft legislation as kowtowing to foreign mining interests eager to hijack Afghanistan’s natural resources. – New York Times
 
Scores of fresh artillery rounds fired from Pakistan hit parts of eastern Afghanistan on Sunday night and Monday, a local official said, a day after Kabul warned Islamabad that any further cross-border shelling could significantly damage ties between the two historically uneasy neighbors. – Washington Post
 
A Republican congressman is accusing the Army of altering a positive review of a new intelligence-gathering software program that helps troops in Afghanistan track roadside bombs and enemy targets to favor its own more costly program. - Politico
 
The Pentagon has asked members of Congress to cut down on the number of oversight trips to Afghanistan, an aide to House Armed Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon confirmed on Monday. - Politico
 
Afghan security forces have foiled a plan by insurgents to attack a major international hotel in Kabul, intelligence officials said on Tuesday, blocking what would have been the second such attack in the capital in as many months. - Reuters
 
A top U.S. general in Afghanistan sought to stall an investigation into waste, abuse and mismanagement at a U.S.-funded hospital in Kabul for political reasons, a former U.S. military official will tell Congress on Tuesday. - Reuters
 
An Afghan cleric has been arrested after allegedly raping a young schoolgirl in the country's north on the second day of the Ramadan, the holiest month in Islam, Afghan security officials said on Monday. - Reuters
 
South Asia
 
The United States will sell six additional C-130J Hercules airlifters to the Indian Air Force on a government-to-government basis, Indian Defence Minister A.K. Antony was informed during a July 23 visit by U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Ashton Carter. – Defense News
 
U.S. drones fired eight missiles at a compound owned by a powerful militant commander in northwest Pakistan on Monday, killing nine suspected insurgents, Pakistani intelligence officials said. – Associated Press
 
China
 
Chinese dairy company Hunan Ava Dairy Industry Co. is recalling some of its infant formula after officials in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou found a carcinogenic toxin in some of the company's products, underscoring China's challenges as it attempts to overhaul its scandal-ridden dairy industry. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
This week, Tony Abbott — the leader of Australia’s opposition, and given the unpopularity of the current government potentially Australia’s next prime minister — is visiting Beijing as part of an effort to give the Australian voting public a taste of what foreign policy might look like under his government. It follows his visit to the U.S. last week, where he spoke at the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington D.C. – WSJ’s China Real Time Report
 
China showed off an elite helicopter unit to foreign media on Tuesday in its latest bid to address concerns about its growing military might amid increasingly aggressive moves to assert its sovereignty over the South China Sea. - Reuters
 
President Barack Obama's new trade enforcement unit is initially focusing on obstacles to U.S. exports in at least six countries, including Chinese industrial policies believed to violate world trade rules, a top U.S. trade official said on Monday. - Reuters
 
Josh Rogin reports: China's oppression of Tibetans and their culture is preventing China from becoming a modern, pluralistic, free, and democratic nation, according to Lobsang Sangay, the prime minister of Tibet's government in exile, who added that the current Chinese system is destined to fail. – The Cable
 
East Asia
 
President Lee Myung-bak apologized on Tuesday for a string of corruption scandals implicating his relatives and allies that have undermined his political leverage in his last year in office. – New York Times
 
For many observers, rising friction between China and Japan over a group of remote and uninhabited islands in the East China Sea is worrying enough. But if some influential Chinese nationalist commentators have their way, the spat over the Japanese-controlled Senkaku islands — which Beijing calls the Diaoyu — could widen into a dispute over a much more important archipelago. – Washington Post
 
The U.S. military’s Osprey aircraft arrived in Japan on July 23 as residents rallied against their deployment after recent crashes raised safety concerns. - AFP
 
U.S. and South Korean troops will stage an annual joint exercise next month to improve their combat-readiness, military authorities said July 23 amid high cross-border tensions. - AFP
 
Taiwan is considering purchasing tanks used by the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan to update its aging fleet, the defense ministry and media said July 23. - AFP
 
Ethan Epstein writes: Earlier this year, Tokyo governor Shintaro Ishihara took time out from presiding over the world’s largest city to initiate a fundraising drive. It wasn’t his own campaign coffers that Ishihara was seeking to fill—campaign spending is severely limited in Japan, anyway. Rather, the famously nationalistic (some say jingoistic) governor began a drive to purchase three of the five islands that make up the Senkakus, which are claimed by China, Taiwan, and Japan. – The Weekly Standard
 
Southeast Asia
 
The Central Military Commission, China’s most powerful military body, has approved the deployment of a garrison of soldiers from the People’s Liberation Army to guard disputed islands claimed by China and Vietnam in the South China Sea, the state-run Xinhua news agency said Sunday. – New York Times

Security

Defense
 
President Obama went after his Republican critics attacking him for cuts to the military through sequestration, accusing them of trying to “wriggle out” of a deal they made last year. – DEFCON Hill
 
U.S. law bars foreign shipyard workers from doing such tasks as preventative and corrective maintenance, deep cleaning and corrosion control — crucial work for a ship manned by only 50 or so sailors, meaning it will rely more on shore-based support than other U.S. Navy ships. – Defense News
 
The Pentagon wants to fill a number of top U.S. Air Force leadership positions, particularly in the area of acquisition. But with a presidential election in November looming, finding people to serve in those roles might be a pipe dream. – Defense News
 
Arthur Herman writes: The original father of our World War II "arsenal of democracy" was General Motors president Bill Knudsen, who used to say that "the better a thing is, the cheaper it is to make." That's a far cry from our current Pentagon business model. But it's one that will help it overcome procurement problems in the future, and a benchmark for a new arsenal of democracy for the 21st century. It will also preserve America's military leadership before it's too late. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Cybersecurity
 
As Congress enters its final few weeks before its August recess, Senate Armed Services Committee ranking member John McCain, R-Ariz., on Monday castigated Senate leaders for planning to debate a "controversial and flawed" cybersecurity bill later this week. – National Journal
 
Tom Mahnken writes: The growth, spread, and effectiveness of cyber weapons is an important subject. Although cyber-hysteria may grab headlines and sell books, it is a topic important enough to deserved focused, reasoned, and thoughtful discussion – Shadow Government

Russia/Europe

Russia
 
Russia's ambassador to the United States slammed Congress in a sharply worded op-ed Monday, warning lawmakers that their plan to link pending trade legislation with a controversial human rights bill “is not acceptable, and it is not going to be accepted.” – The Hill’s Global Affairs
 
Read Amb. Sergey Kislyak’s op-ed – The Hill’s Global Affairs
 
The news that Wall Street megabank Goldman Sachs may have tried to torpedo a human rights bill pertaining to Russia provoked a reaction from the financial giant, which maintains it never paid a prominent D.C. lobbying firm $100,000 to rally opposition to the legislation. – Washington Free Beacon
 
Moscow officially told the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Monday said it has ratified the accession package and is set to become the 156th member of the trade group on Aug. 22. – The Hill’s On the Money
 
A court on Monday rejected a request to call President Vladimir Putin and the head of the Russian Orthodox Church to testify in the trial of three female punk rockers who derided Putin in a protest in the country's main cathedral, their lawyer said. - Reuters
 
Julia Ioffe writes: On the whole, though, Russians—both the press, and their audience—just don’t seem to have much appetite for the story. Unless Assad falls, it’s unlikely to make it onto any front pages or to lead the nightly news. It is just one more shadowy battle between the world powers and their competing interests, and, much like in the United States, there is plenty to worry about at home: political instability, corruption, flash floods and official incompetence, and, perhaps, a looming economic crisis. – The New Republic
 
Europe
 
The suicide bombing that killed six people, including five Israelis, in a Bulgarian seaside resort will not stop Israelis from traveling wherever they wish, a government minister from the Jewish state said Monday during a visit to the eastern European nation. – Associated Press
 
If a group of Ukrainian lawmakers succeeds in its mission, television shows and movies like “Brokeback Mountain” that sympathetically portray gay men and lesbians will be banned. So will gay pride parades. – Associated Press

Americas

United States of America
 
President Obama launched a sharp assault on Mitt Romney’s foreign policy credentials on Monday, as the weekend political truce that followed the shooting rampage in Colorado dissolved into the more familiar political punch and counterpunch. – New York Times
 
Read the text of the President’s remarks before the Veterans of Foreign Wars – White House
 
A senior Senate Democrat lightly-yet-pointedly criticized the Obama White House Monday, saying bluntly that some recent national security leaks appear to have originated at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. - DOTMIL
 
President Obama will travel to Israel if he's elected to a second term, a campaign aide said Monday. – The Hill’s Blog Briefing Room
 
Giving African countries another three years of duty-free access to the U.S. apparel market would save the government $5 million over 10 years, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said Monday, upping the odds that Congress will quickly pass legislation that's vital to many poor nations' economies. – The Hill’s Global Affairs
 
Kori Schake writes: This will not be a campaign about foreign policy, given the president's mismanagement of the economy. But conservatives should not allow the president's advocates to pretend their "new pragmatism" means there are no differences between liberals and conservatives on foreign policy, or shy away from advocating the principles that appeal to American voters. – Shadow Government
 
Latin America
 
Where remittances from El Norte were once mostly used to help hungry families back home simply survive, surveys now reveal that the longer a migrant stays up north, the more likely the cash transfers will be used to start new businesses or to pay for homes, farm equipment and school tuitions – Washington Post
 
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney said Monday that the death of a prominent Cuban dissident in an apparent automobile accident raises “questions” about the Castro regime's potential involvement. – The Hill’s Global Affairs

Africa

East Africa
 
South Sudan offered concessions to Sudan that would waive billions of dollars in debt and increase the amount it is willing to pay to use Sudan's oil pipelines. But Sudan said Monday it wants to tackle security issues first. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Eli Lake reports: The United States is breaking a 20-year arms embargo on Somalia by providing unauthorized intelligence training to regional governments and special-forces missions, according to a forthcoming United Nations report that discloses new details of the U.S. war against al Qaeda in the war-torn African nation. – The Daily Beast
 
Zimbabwe
 
Before Zimbabwe’s government began the violent and chaotic seizure of white-owned farms in 2000, fewer than 2,000 farmers were growing tobacco, the country’s most lucrative crop, and most were white. Today, 60,000 farmers grow tobacco here, the vast majority of them black and many of them working small plots that were allotted to them in the land upheavals. Most had no tobacco farming experience yet managed to produce a hefty crop, rebounding from a low of 105 million pounds in 2008 to more than 330 million pounds this year. – New York Times
 
The EU has promised to suspend sanctions against scores of Zimbabwean officials – but not Robert Mugabe, the veteran president – if the country presses ahead with democratic reforms. – Financial Times

Ideas

William Martel writes: Ultimately, the West’s grand strategy is to restrain the actions and manage the decline of the authoritarian axis. We did this before, and we can do so again. The playbook has already been written – it just depends on the West re-reading it. – The Diplomat