FPI Overnight Brief: July 9, 2012

Middle East/North Africa

Iran
 
After years of being in public denial over the amount of illegal drinking in the country, officials in Iran are for the first time publicly addressing the issue of alcoholism and the health problems drinking can cause, exacerbated by sometimes dangerous homemade brews. – Los Angeles Times
 
As negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program closed in a stalemate last Wednesday, the Persian regime began flexing its military might and threatening Israel, leading former U.S. officials and observers on Capitol Hill to warn that Iran does not deem the Obama administration’s threat of a military strike as credible. – Washington Free Beacon
 
Iran has added Germany and France to the list of countries it claims are behind the assassination of several of its nuclear scientists. – DEFCON Hill
 
John Bolton writes: In the race between the West’s sanctions/negotiations track and Tehran’s nuclear weapons track, the nuclear effort is much closer to the finish line. Since all other options have failed repeatedly, we must at some very near point face a basic question: Are we prepared to use force at a time of our choosing and through means optimal for us rather than for Iran’s air defenses, or will we simply allow Iran to have nuclear weapons under the delusion it can be contained and deterred? The clock is ticking, and the centrifuges are spinning. – The Weekly Standard
 
Michael Singh writes: Western policymakers’ assertions that there is time for sanctions to work are a bit like a marathon runner saying he has plenty of time to finish the race. There may be time, but the latest round of talks’ failure to make progress despite mounting pressure on Iran suggests we also have a long way to go – Washington Post
 
Michael Makovsky and Blaise Misztal write: The Obama administration has rightfully sought to curtail Iran's dangerous enrichment work. Now the administration should work with international partners to prevent Iranian grandstanding from weakening their stance or skewing public opinion. It's time to unequivocally refute Iran's fallacious claim of a right to enrich uranium. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Syria
 
President Bashar al-Assad of Syria said in an interview on German television that public support for his rule meant he would remain in office, and maintained that victims among government supporters including the military outnumbered those among civilians. – New York Times
 
Western diplomats in Paris said a top general's flight from Syria is a sign of how regime elites are abandoning President Bashar al-Assad, heralding the defection during an international summit on Syria that otherwise highlighted the international deadlock over the conflict. – Wall Street Journal
 
The United Nations cease-fire monitoring mission in Syria, suspended three weeks ago because of unprecedented violence and the physical danger to its members, should not be disbanded but instead should shift to other activities inside the country to encourage a political solution to the conflict, Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said in a report to the Security Council on Friday. – New York Times
 
In a show of force, Syria began large-scale military exercises Sunday to simulate defending the country against outside “aggression.” Damascus’ staunch ally Iran warned of a “catastrophe” in the region if no political solution to the 16-month-old Syrian conflict is found. – Associated Press
 
Josh Rogin reports: The lobbying firm that brought you a Vogue story featuring the Syrian first lady was still trying to help the Syrian regime improve its image abroad two months after the notoriously ill-timed article was published and then scrubbed, as the country descended into violence, according to a document revealed by Wikileaks. – The Cable
 
Editorial: The administration does have reason to pretend that Russia is cooperating or can be induced to do so. Were it to acknowledge that that cause is hopeless — and that action at the United Nations is therefore impossible — it might come under pressure to consider other measures...So which government is preventing effective action on Syria, and which will pay the price? Ms. Clinton’s attempt to pin the blame on Russia looks like a diversion. – Washington Post
 
Elliott Abrams writes: On April 23 of this year, ten weeks ago, the president went to the Holocaust Museum to announce his formation of an “Atrocities Prevention Board.” It is supposed to be forward-looking, thinking about how to stop the next mass killing. Bad timing. The next mass killing is happening now, and the Obama administration is AWOL. – National Review Online’s The Corner
 
Tony Badran writes: The prospect that Bashar al-Assad might eventually have no other choice than retrenchment in the coastal mountains is not without irony. His father Hafez always cited the “facts of history and geography” whenever he sought to justify his domination of Lebanon and Syria’s supposed claims in the wider Levant. How fitting that the realities of strategic geography would now spell the end of his family’s domination of Syria. – The Weekly Standard Blog
 
Libya
 
A coalition led by a Western-educated political scientist appeared on Sunday to be beating Islamist parties in Libya’s first election of the post-Qaddafi era, standing apart from an overwhelming Islamist wave sweeping across neighboring Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco in the aftermath of the Arab Spring uprisings. – New York Times
 
Libyans streamed to the polls amid a celebratory atmosphere for their first chance to steer their country's political future since Moammar Gadhafi seized power in 1969—and since the popular uprising that ousted the dictator nearly nine months ago – Wall Street Journal
 
Libyans vote for a national assembly Saturday amid sharpening ethnic and tribal tension threatening the nation's transition from Moammar Kadafi's repressive rule to the newest democracy to emerge from the Arab Spring. – Los Angeles Times
 
An International Criminal Court defense lawyer held in Libya for more than three weeks said Friday that her detention showed that Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s son Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi cannot get a fair trial in his home country. – Associated Press
 
Editorial: Libya's transition from tyranny has a long way to go, but the progress so far would not have been possible without the West's worthy intervention. The task now is to help Libyans finish the job. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Ali Suleiman Aujali writes: Regardless of who wins Saturday, these elections will be a resounding victory for a free and democratic Libya. Our people paid a high price to be able to make their voices heard at the ballot box. From the early days of the revolution to the preparations for these elections, Libyans’ commitment to freedom and democracy has only strengthened. While many challenges lie ahead, I am confident that Libya will serve as the model for a stable, economically vibrant democracy in North Africa. – Washington Post
 
Egypt
 
Egypt’s president on Sunday ordered the return of the dissolved Islamist-led Parliament until a new one could be elected, challenging a decision by generals who had dismissed the assembly based on a court ruling. – New York Times
 
President Mohamed Morsi of Egypt has appointed a committee to investigate the killing of protesters during and after the uprising early last year, in what appeared to be a strong challenge to the authority of Egypt’s powerful security services. – New York Times
 
After their dramatic rise to power — and it’s hard to imagine one more operatic than the clash of revolution, democracy and religion that swept the formerly outlawed Muslim Brotherhood into Egypt’s presidential palace — the country’s untested new leaders now face a more prosaic first priority: Egypt needs jobs. – Washington Post
 
[D]espite the unprecedented ire centered on military chiefs who had never faced public scrutiny, there are very few signs of a dent in the vaunted reputation of the Egyptian armed forces at large. – Washington Post
 
Jackson Diehl writes: Washington has no choice but to rebuild its connection with Egypt — the most populous and historically most important Arab nation, the owner of the Suez Canal and a prime U.S. ally for more than 40 years. It is a daunting, even scary prospect for the State Department and Obama White House. But it is also offers a chance to correct some of the mistakes America has made for decades in its dealings with Arab leaders – Washington Post
 
Saudi Arabia
 
Saudi security forces shot and killed at least two demonstrators in the kingdom's heavily Shiite Muslim Eastern Province, as the largest protests in months erupted there following the shooting and arrest of an outspoken antiregime Shiite cleric, Saudi activists said Monday. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Iraq
 
The Obama administration on Friday stepped up pressure on a dissident Iranian group to complete a move from its longtime base in Iraq, suggesting that the group’s conduct will influence a decision on whether to continue its official designation as a terrorist organization. – New York Times
 
A dramatic uptick in violence and political instability in Iraq have raised fears that Baghdad once again is tilting toward civil war. – Military Times
 
Sudan
 
Antigovernment protesters in greater Khartoum and other Sudanese cities clashed with riot police officers on Friday after prayers in a third week of protest. – New York Times
 
Israel
 
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Sunday to increase significantly the number of ultra-Orthodox Jews and Arab citizens who serve in Israel’s military or civilian volunteer corps, an effort that he hoped would quiet an outraged public and also save his broad unity coalition government. – New York Times
 
Israel has stepped up its efforts to round up and repatriate South Sudanese migrants and is building a tent-city detention center in the desert, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government struggles to stem the monthly tide of thousands of Africans crossing illegally from Egypt. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Return to Top

Asia

Afghanistan
 
An international donor’s conference on Sunday pledged $16 billion for the economic development of Afghanistan in the next four years, but for the first time made it a condition that the Afghan government reduce corruption before receiving all of the money. – New York Times
 
The United States declared Afghanistan a major, non-NATO ally on Saturday, with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton personally delivering the news of Afghanistan’s entry into a club that includes Israel, Japan, Pakistan and other close Asian and Middle Eastern allies. – New York Times
 
When international donors meet in Tokyo on Sunday to chart Afghanistan’s economic future, they will be asked to pledge another decade of support in exchange for the Afghan government’s promises to clean up rampant corruption. – Washington Post
 
At this weekend’s donor conference in Tokyo, nations weighing how much money to commit to Afghanistan are looking to the handling of the Kabul Bank scandal as an important signal that Karzai is taking steps to resolve the most egregious examples of graft and bribery. – Washington Post
 
The killing of Mr. Qayum and his driver, confirmed by the Taliban and reviewed by The New York Times as part of an examination of operations in Afghanistan by 44 F/A-18s from the aircraft carrier John C. Stennis, was a demonstration of the extraordinary technical and tactical abilities of American air power. For both better and worse, that power has become a defining facet of the Afghan conflict and the American way of waging war. – New York Times
 
At least 18 civilians were killed by a series of bomb blasts in Afghanistan on Sunday, an official said, in the latest spate of rising casualties among non-combatants in recent months. – Washington Post
 
The scene that Afghan officials say was caught on video last month near Kabul was as horrific as it was once common in Afghanistan: a Taliban fighter executing a woman with repeated shots to the back of her head as his compatriots and scores of villagers watch, and then cheer. – New York Times
 
News agencies have been forced to make cuts, cancel programming, and reduce coverage as the tide of international funding recedes. The agencies that remain unaffected are predominately those backed by political groups, often ethnically based, which predictably produce news with an agenda and protect party elites from scrutiny. – Christian Science Monitor
 
The Defense Department has decided to siphon off $1 billion from Pentagon accounts dedicated to building up Afghanistan's national security forces and shift those dollars to other military priorities. – DEFCON Hill
 
The Obama administration will ask Congress to sustain U.S. assistance for Afghanistan near the average amount it has been over the last decade through 2017 as part of the international effort to stabilize the country even as most international forces pull out over the next two years. – Associated Press
 
Almost afraid to say it out loud, lest they jinx their record, U.S. troops in Afghanistan achieved one small but important victory over the past year: They found and avoided more homemade bombs meant to kill and maim them than a year ago, thanks to a surge in training, equipment and intelligence. – Associated Press
 
Jeffrey Dressler writes: It is nonsensical that the State Department has yet to designate the Haqqanis as a foreign terrorist organization for fear that it might make a group waging terrorist operations against U.S. and Afghan troops less likely to sit for peace talks. The concern that listing the Haqqani network might upset the government of Pakistan is also absurd. As then-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen told the Senate Armed Services Committee, the September 2011 attacks were conducted with support from Pakistan’s intelligence service. – The Weekly Standard
 
Pakistan
 
At least 15 people suspected of being Taliban militants were killed by an American drone strike late Friday in northwestern Pakistan, according to a Pakistani intelligence official and local residents. – New York Times
 
Unidentified gunmen killed six Pakistani soldiers and a police officer in an unusual attack on a riverside military camp in Punjab Province on Monday, a Pakistani military spokesman said. – New York Times
 
Thousands of hardline Islamists streamed toward Pakistan’s capital in a massive convoy of vehicles Sunday to protest the government’s decision to allow the U.S. and other NATO countries to resume shipping troop supplies through the country to Afghanistan. – Associated Press
 
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton expressed hope Sunday that Pakistan’s recent reopening of NATO supply lines into Afghanistan might lead to a broader rapprochement in U.S.-Pakistani relations after a difficult period for the reluctant allies. – Associated Press
 
Josh Rogin reports: The Obama administration is planning to release more than $1 billion of held-up funds to the Pakistani government this month, following Pakistan's opening of the supply lines to Afghanistan. But Congress can thwart that plan and at least one senator is going to try. – The Cable
 
South Asia
 
For years, India watched helplessly as many of its most-wanted terrorism suspects traveled freely to Saudi Arabia from Pakistan with new identities and passports and without fear of arrest. But things appear to have changed – Washington Post
 
Three years have passed since the end of the war. But for members of the Tamil minority of northern Sri Lanka — who suffered a heavy civilian death toll during the three-decade conflict, and years of fear and oppression when the Tigers controlled the area — the peace has been a painful disappointment. – Washington Post

Uzbekistan
 
The bloodiest massacre of protesters since Tiananmen Square turned Uzbekistan into a pariah state. Now, the United States needs its help over Afghanistan — and has launched a flurry of overtures while putting aside concerns over human rights. – Associated Press

China
 
Central investigators have detained at least two senior police officials with close ties to Wang Lijun, the former police chief of Chongqing who set off a national political scandal by confiding suspicions of a murder plot to American officials, according to people with police contacts there. A third police official also close to Mr. Wang has been dismissed. The moves are a sign that the inquiry into Mr. Wang could be reaching a critical phase. – New York Times
 
Reformers say China needs more entrepreneurs like Liu Peijian. His chain of six furniture stores employs 60 people. But Beijing’s response to the deepest economic slump since the 2008 crisis is to pump money into state industry, leaving businesspeople like Liu who create jobs to fend for themselves. – Associated Press
 
Hu Jia writes: Turning China into a democratic and lawful society in the next 10 years is the only peaceful option. Conciliation will never arrive without truth or confession. The sooner the Communist Party wakes up, the smaller the cost will be. – Washington Post
 
Bill French and Daniel Katz write: The rise of China and the modernization of its armed forces are too important for U.S. national security not to ensure a well-informed public. By taking the steps outlined above, Congress can help the Pentagon better inform policymakers and the electorate as they navigate a prudent course for engaging China. – Defense News
 
East Asia
 
Japan's prime minister said the national government is considering purchasing a set of islets at the center of a territorial dispute between Tokyo and Beijing, a move that could further strain ties between Asia's two largest economies. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
The top United States military commander in South Korea apologized Sunday for an episode last week during which American military police officers handcuffed three South Koreans in a dispute over a parking violation, inciting protests from civic groups. – New York Times
 
Taiwan’s military prosecutors were investigating the disappearance of two maps containing secret information on the island’s naval deployments, according to reports on July 7. - AFP
 
Mickey Mouse and Winnie the Pooh took the stage in North Korea during a concert for new leader Kim Jong Un, in an unusual performance featuring Disney characters. – Associated Press
 
Southeast Asia
 
At a gathering of business executives in Cambodia this week, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton plans to urge the expansion of American trade and investment across Asia, particularly in Southeast Asian nations on the periphery of China. – New York Times
 
Construction [of Burma’s Myitsone dam] was halted last year after a public backlash over the dam’s social and environmental impact. But activists now worry that Chinese leverage with state officials will succeed in restarting the project, threatening a fragile ecosystem and fledging chances for a peace settlement with an ethnic rebel group that says the dam violates native rights on territory that historically belonged to them. – Washington Post
 
The Philippines, which is now embroiled in a territorial dispute with China, is set to acquire new warplanes in two years to upgrade its poorly-equipped air force, its defense minister said July 6. - AFP
 
The authorities in Myanmar briefly detained more than 20 political activists ahead of a planned commemoration on Saturday of the 50th anniversary of a brutal military crackdown on students. – Associated Press

Security
 
Defense
 
Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) writes: All Americans, as well as our adversaries and allies abroad, will watch carefully in coming months to see whether Washington can muster a consensus to address our fiscal crisis while maintaining essential national priorities. – Defense News
 
Law of the Sea Treaty
 
John Norton Moore writes: Mr. Rumsfeld's mission for President Reagan was a service to the nation. His time-warp testimony, however, does a disservice to a remarkable treaty that expands U.S. sovereign rights, powerfully serves U.S. needs for the Navy and the Coast Guard, and provides American industry with the security necessary to generate jobs and growth. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 

Russia/Europe

Russia
 
An international body devoted to security and democracy Sunday chided Russia—one of its 56 members—on its human rights record and urged governments to impose sanctions by banning visas and freezing the assets of Russians connected to the death of a crusading lawyer named Sergei Magnitsky. – Washington Post
 
Russia's parliament approved strict new rules on nongovernmental organizations that receive foreign funding, in what opposition activists and political analysts said was the latest in a string of Kremlin steps to increase pressure on critics. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Two Russian strategic nuclear bombers entered the U.S. air defense zone near the Pacific coast on Wednesday and were met by U.S. interceptor jets, defense officials told the Free Beacon. – Washington Free Beacon
 
The Russian parliament is expected to vote to join the World Trade Organization (WTP) on Tuesday, giving Congress a short window to either adopt trade legislation or risk seeing U.S. companies trail competitors in the world's ninth-largest economy. – The Hill’s Global Affairs
 
Editorial: It is strange to respond to the Magnitsky bill by punishing groups that would protect human rights. But that is entirely in keeping with the Soviet mind-set of Mr. Putin, who has shown he can tolerate neither protest on the street nor the principle that civil society is essential to a healthy democracy. – Washington Post
 
Europe
 
The Ukrainian Parliament refused on Friday to accept the resignation of its leader and instead adjourned for the summer, leaving uncertain the fate of a contentious bill that would allow local and regional governments to grant official status to Russian and other languages, in addition to Ukrainian. – New York Times
 
A day after a security scare closed a major highway for hours but turned out to be a false alarm, British police officials reported on Friday that they had seized seven men under counterterrorism laws, bringing the total number of arrests announced in the past 24 hours to 13. – New York Times
 
Trade
 
Paula Dobriansky and Paul Saunders write: An immediate and vocal commitment to free trade with Europe—followed by prompt action to make it happen—would send a powerful signal of America's enduring confidence in its closest and deepest economic relationship. While not a panacea, reducing the costs of trans-Atlantic trade can contribute importantly over the longer term to creating new jobs and fueling sustained economic growth on both sides of the ocean. This is sure to strengthen American and European leadership for decades to come. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Americas

Latin America
 
Opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles charged the Venezuela government with using its police forces to obstruct a campaign rally Saturday in the latest clash between his camp and supporters of President Hugo Chávez ahead of hotly contested Oct. 7 election. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Two American agents with the United States Drug Enforcement Administration shot and killed a man suspected of drug smuggling in Honduras last week, an official disclosed on Sunday. – New York Times
 

Africa

West Africa
 
At the very least, the April 20 accident exposed a team of Special Operations forces that had been working for months in Mali, a Saharan country wracked by civil war and a rising Islamist insurgency. More broadly, the crash has provided a rare glimpse of elite U.S. commando units in North Africa, where they have been secretly engaged in counterterrorism actions against al-Qaeda affiliates. – Washington Post
 
Every day, several thousand people flee northern Mali to makeshift refugee camps that have sprung up in remote regions of Niger, Burkina Faso, Mauritania and Guinea, according to the United Nations. – Washington Post
 
As West African leaders seek a green light to send forces into northern Mali, the United Nations child protection organization said at least 175 boys had been recruited as child soldiers in the region, prodded into fighting in the chaotic aftermath of a Tuareg rebellion. – LA Times’ World Now
 
East Africa
 
Rebels loyal to renegade Congolese Gen. Bosco Ntaganda have captured a second town in the Democratic Republic of Congo's tin-mining province of North Kivu, forcing hundreds of United Nations-backed government troops to flee, as the security situation in the restive region continues to worsen, officials said Saturday. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Nine children are dying every day from preventable illnesses like diarrhea in an overcrowded, swampy refugee camp in South Sudan, and United Nations officials said Friday that they were stepping up efforts to evacuate people as fast as they could. – New York Times

Obama Administration

Peter Feaver writes: When the pundits return to national security issues -- as surely they must at some point in the coming months -- perhaps they will return with a bit more realistic awareness of the process problems that have plagued this administration, just as they plagued previous ones. – Shadow Government
 
James Mann writes: The two former Democratic rivals have worked together surprisingly smoothly. And yet for all that, her assertive views on foreign policy, which Obama and grass-roots Democrats once criticized, have remained relatively constant, while her public standing has soared. Quite a neat trick for someone who, in 2008, was accused of having mediocre political skills. – Los Angeles Times