FPI Overnight Brief: June 20, 2012

Middle East/North Africa

Iran
 
Talks on Iran’s disputed nuclear program descended into mistrust and frustration in Moscow on Tuesday, casting doubt on whether the two sides can negotiate a way out of the escalating crisis. – New York Times
 
The United States and Israel jointly developed a sophisticated computer virus nicknamed Flame that collected critical intelligence in preparation for cyber-sabotage attacks aimed at slowing Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon, according to Western officials with knowledge of the effort. – Washington Post
 
India is finally moving ahead with a much-delayed payments mechanism which essentially bypasses international sanctions against Tehran, with a senior industry executive saying Wednesday that the government is likely to start putting money into a rupee account over the next two days to pay for Iranian oil. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Iran, Syria, Russia and China are planning a joint war games exercise involving 90,000 troops from the four countries, according to Iranian media reports, but Russian and Syrian officials are denying that the report is accurate. – DEFCON Hill
 
Negotiations over Iran's nuclear program will not last indefinitely and Tehran should expect more sanctions if it fails to address international suspicions over the nature of its work, a senior U.S. administration official said on Tuesday. - Reuters
 
Japan's parliament approved government guarantees on insurance for crude oil cargoes from Iran on Wednesday, paving the way for it to become the first of Iran's big Asian oil buyers to get round new European Union sanctions. - Reuters
 
Allison Good reports: As a third round of nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers ended conclusively Tuesday, Israeli vice prime minister and Kadima party leader Shaul Mofaz called on the so-called P5+1 to focus on stopping Iran's uranium enrichment during a speech at the Washington Institute for Near East Peace. – The Cable
 
Maseh Zarif writes: Iran’s intransigence suggests that the regime will not compromise on its pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability, despite the impact of recent economic sanctions. – AEI’s Iran Tracker
 
Syria
 
The commander of the 300 unarmed United Nations observers assigned to monitor Syria, in his first direct report to the Security Council, cast doubts on Tuesday on the survival of their mission, telling diplomats that he had decided to suspend their work this past weekend because of repeated exposure to close-range gunfire and hostility, some aimed directly at them, by the antagonists there. – New York Times
 
Syrian activists issued a fresh appeal Tuesday to help evacuate thousands of Syrian civilians trapped between warring government forces and the armed opposition, amid signs President Bashar al-Assad is renewing attempts to snuff out resistance to his regime. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said Tuesday that the fate of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria should be left to the hands of the Syrians, saying that no one country has the right to tell another people whom their leader should be. – New York Times
 
President Obama said Tuesday he failed to persuade the presidents of Russia and China to support the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and laid part of the blame with them for the Syrian regime’s ongoing slayings of pro-democracy civilian protesters. – Washington Times
 
[A] rare look inside rebel operations in Syria reveals a force that has been undeterred by the crushing tactics of President Bashar al-Assad’s army. Heavy losses in the rebel ranks and among civilians have only emboldened the fighters in their quest to topple Assad, whose government has killed thousands of Syrians while trying to suppress what began last year as a peaceful uprising but is rapidly turning into a civil war. – Washington Post
 
British Foreign Secretary William Hague told Parliament on Tuesday that a Russian ship believed to be carrying helicopters and weapons had aborted its journey to Syria after losing insurance coverage. – Washington Post
 
In its 2012 report on human trafficking, the department added Syria to the list of nations that could face American sanctions for not doing enough to combat forced labor and commercial sexual exploitation. The report said the violence in Syria had weakened security and made it difficult to monitor anti-trafficking efforts. – New York Times
 
As the conflict in Syria lurches toward all-out civil war, diplomats voice grave concern about "spillover" to neighboring nations, notably Lebanon, where memories of a long, traumatic civil war and the Syrian army's occupation of the country remain fresh. But here in Tripoli — more specifically in the volatile districts of Jabal Mohsen and Bab Tabbaneh, divided by the aptly named Syria Street — the "contagion" from Syria has already arrived, and it's toxic. – Los Angeles Times
 
Senate Democrats are standing behind the White House's diplomatic approach to the crisis in Syria despite a major setback for the U.S.-Arab League peace plan. – DEFCON Hill
 
Any involvement by Iran in a potential Syrian peace plan is a "non-starter" for Congress, despite calls for Tehran's input into the process, according to Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.). – DEFCON Hill
 
Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) said he would introduce legislation this week that would block what he said are the Obama administration's unilateral plans to involve itself militarily with Syria. – The Hill’s Floor Action Blog
 
The Pentagon said on Tuesday the Russian military was preparing to dispatch three ships to Syria but noted that Moscow's stated intent was to send supplies and personnel to its naval facility in the Mediterranean port of Tartus. - Reuters
 
Russian President Vladimir Putin made clear during talks this week that he does not want President Bashar al-Assad to remain in power in Syria any longer, British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Tuesday. - Reuters
 
Syria‘s government said Tuesday it was ready to act on a U.N. call to evacuate civilians trapped in the rebellious central city of Homs for more than a week, but it blamed rebels for obstructing efforts to get them out. – Associated Press
 
Fouad Ajami writes: The wider forces at play in the Greater Middle East do not detain this president. His political advisers have not walked into the Oval Office reporting that he'll win re-election if only he takes a more assertive stance toward the dictators in Damascus or Tehran. The world can wait—Syria has twisted for 15 months, and it is only five months until the election. And the amazing thing of it all is that Mr. Obama's Republican rival, Mitt Romney, cedes him the foreign policy domain, allowing him to pose as though all is well in the world beyond our shores. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Egypt
 
Former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was moved out of prison to a military hospital late Tuesday after suffering a stroke, the country's state news agency reported, capping a day of rumors and uncertainty as the country awaits official results of the historic presidential contest. – Wall Street Journal
 
Egypt's Islamist and liberal forces, wary about the results of the weekend's presidential election, cast aside their ideological differences to protest the ruling military's moves to extend its grip on power. – Wall Street Journal
 
The hundreds who gathered on Monday cheered for Mohamed Morsi, a candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood who had held off a challenge from Hosni Mubarak’s former prime minister and is set to become Egypt’s first freely elected president. A milestone had passed and victory had been declared. But even among the revelers, doubts remained. – New York Times
 
Egypt's constituent assembly held its first meeting on Monday in the debating chamber of the dissolved parliament in a show of defiance against the army's assumption of legislative powers. - Reuters
 
The Muslim Brotherhood is counting the political cost of taking part in a high-stakes game for Egypt's future against a powerful opponent who can change the rules at will. - Reuters
 
Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood declared on Tuesday it did not want a confrontation with the ruling generals but said the army did not have the right to curb presidential powers after a vote the group says its candidate won. - Reuters
 
An Egyptian court has adjourned to September cases challenging the legality of the Muslim Brotherhood, as the Islamist group battles to hold on to political gains secured since Hosni Mubarak was overthrown in an uprising last year. - Reuters
 
A U.S. election monitoring group said on Tuesday it was unable to say if Egypt's presidential election was free and fair as it had not been given sufficient access, accusing the military leadership of hampering a transition to democracy. - Reuters
 
Editorial: A better way is to negotiate a pact that safeguards everyone's interests and offers the generals a graceful exit from politics. Though diminished, the military can still oversee the move toward pluralistic democracy with protections for political and religious minorities. The prospect of the Arab spring—a liberalizing Egyptian democracy—looks increasingly remote. But its chances are nil in a war between the Brotherhood and military. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
North Africa
 
A breakdown of security in Libya has allowed a significant flow of militants and weapons into other troubled areas in North Africa, according to the top Pentagon official on Africa policy. – Washington Times
 
Scores of protesters scuffled with police in the Sudanese capital for a third day on Tuesday, a witness said, extending demonstrations against government austerity plans to cope with an economic crisis. - Reuters
 
Millions of dollars of assets in Swiss bank accounts linked to a prominent Tunisian politician and businessman have been frozen, a Geneva prosecutor said, after allegations of embezzlement. - Reuters
 
Yemen
 
Yemen's government says it has killed a militant Islamist who directed suicide bombers for an al Qaeda-linked group that has carried out a string of deadly attacks in the country. - Reuters
 
Yemen has foiled a plot to attack foreign embassies in the capital Sanaa, a police source said on Tuesday, days after the army drove al Qaeda-linked militants from their strongholds in the south of the country. - Reuters
 
Iraq
 
Iran has played many political roles in Baghdad since the fall of Saddam Hussein: spoiler to American-crafted administrations, haven for Iraqi political outcasts and big brother to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Shiite-led government. Now add another description: emergency repairman trying to keep Mr. al-Maliki’s coalition from splitting at the seams. – Associated Press
 
Gulf States
 
The United States should establish “red lines” linking military agreements with Persian Gulf allies to respect for human rights, the Senate's top lawmaker on foreign affairs argues in a new report. – The Hill’s Global Affairs
 
The United States is planning a significant military presence of 13,500 troops in Kuwait to give it the flexibility to respond to sudden conflicts in the region as Iraq adjusts to the withdrawal of American combat forces and the world nervously eyes Iran, according to a congressional report. – Associated Press
 
By appointing Prince Ahmed as Saudi Arabia's new interior minister, 89-year-old King Abdullah has indicated the likely path of succession in the world's top oil exporter after Crown Prince Salman, his new heir. - Reuters
 
A group of Saudi activists are calling on women to get behind the wheel next week in defiance of a ban on female drivers, reviving a campaign that petered out last year. - Reuters
 
Israel
 
The armed wing of Hamas, the Islamic militant group that governs here, fired barrages of rockets into southern Israel on Tuesday after a break of more than a year during which the group largely adhered to an informal cease-fire. – New York Times
 
Ulpana, founded a dozen years ago in memory of a woman and boy fatally shot by Palestinians, has become the center of a fierce debate here, with right-wing lawmakers threatening to leave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition if he follows through on the evacuation, and hard-core settlers vowing to die rather than allow the ouster. – New York Times
 
A two-year-old Palestinian court charged with combating corruption handed down its first major conviction this month, ruling that a man widely considered a pretty big fish — the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat’s former economic adviser — had embezzled millions of dollars. – Washington Post
 
The office of the Director of National Intelligence and Senate Democrats tried and failed on Tuesday to limit U.S. satellite imagery-sharing with Israel in a bill passed out of committee that would boost security cooperation with the Jewish state. – Washington Free Beacon
 
A shadowy group claiming ties to al Qaeda said Tuesday that it carried out a deadly cross-border attack in Israel, the strongest evidence to date to back Israeli claims that the global terror network is operating on its doorstep. – Associated Press
 
A cluster of Jewish settlers slated for eviction under an Israeli court order said on Wednesday they would go quietly, sparing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a showdown with a core constituency. - Reuters

Asia

Pakistan
 
Pakistan’s combative top judge made his most audacious foray into judicial activism yet on Tuesday, firing Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, emptying the cabinet and forcing President Asif Ali Zardari to reset his fragile governing coalition. – New York Times
 
Balochistan borders Afghanistan and is widely seen as the base for the Afghan Taliban leadership. [Monday]'s attacks were carried out by another set of jihadis in the region, a reminder that the large Pakistani security presence here has focused more on pinning down an ethnic uprising than cleaning up Islamic militancy. – Christian Science Monitor
 
Pakistan has captured an "important" al Qaeda leader in an operation near the Pakistan-Iran border, officials said on Wednesday, amid criticism from the United States the country was not doing enough to fight militancy. - Reuters
 
Editorial: [T]he self-anointed defenders of Pakistan's interests have again succeeded in crippling Pakistan's democracy. Mr. Zardari and Mr. Gilani may fairly be accused of bungled leadership and inept policy making. But Pakistan will never reach political maturity until democratic governments are allowed to serve out their terms at the pleasure of the people, not unelected elites. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Afghanistan
 
Events this week that raised questions on women’s rights and ethnic tensions have added to long-term concerns about Afghanistan after American-led forces withdraw in 2014 and new elections are held. – New York Times
 
A suicide bomber on foot attacked an American and Afghan military convoy in this provincial capital Wednesday, killing at least seven people, including some children, Afghan officials said. – New York Times
 
In a determined show of force in their traditional heartland, Taliban insurgents in Kandahar province staged a rare frontal attack on a U.S. base on Tuesday and hours later struck a major police checkpoint, Afghan and Western officials said. – LA Times’ World Now
 
The Afghan government will need between $11 billion to $12 billion a year in financial support from the United States and its allies over the next decade, once American and coalition forces pull out of the country in 2014. – DEFCON Hill
 
The upcoming withdrawal of U.S.-led NATO forces from Afghanistan may lead to an increase in the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the country as well as in neighboring Pakistan. – Aviation Week
 
A U.S. military investigation is recommending that as many as seven U.S. troops face administrative punishments, but not criminal charges, in the burning of Korans at a U.S. base in Afghanistan in February, The Associated Press has learned. – Associated Press
 
The Afghan government on Tuesday accused neighboring Pakistan of involvement in a bloody attack last year on minority Shi'ite Muslims, one of the worst sectarian killings in Afghanistan for years. - Reuters
 
China
 
A French architect who worked closely with a disgraced Chinese official and his wife has been arrested in Cambodia, the French government said late Tuesday, in a development that could trigger further diplomatic friction in a domestic Chinese political dispute that has already embroiled the United States and Britain. – New York Times
 
Taiwan’s second-ranking diplomat said Tuesday he does not believe China will become democratic in coming decades, arguing that the Chinese Communist Party is unlikely to allow a true opposition anytime soon. – Washington Times
 
Chen Guangcheng writes: As the proverb says, when princes violate the law, their crimes are equal to those of commoners. If, instead of being investigated for their misdeeds, local authorities are allowed to prosecute Kegui, this will send a message to the world that Chinese officials are above the law: that no matter how great their crimes, they will not be held accountable, and that if ordinary people refuse to be illegally beaten and cry out for help, they will be considered criminals. – Washington Post
 
Burma
 
Myanmar's opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi announced in Britain on Tuesday that she was prepared to take the helm as the leader of her people, the strongest signal yet she saw herself as someone who could lead her country one day. - Reuters
 
Myanmar was upgraded in the annual U.S. global slavery report released on Tuesday, boosted by the Southeast Asian country's pledge to outlaw state-sponsored forced labor as it pursues rapid democratic reforms. - Reuters
 
The United States on Tuesday praised Myanmar's response to recent deadly sectarian fighting, despite criticism by rights group Amnesty International that Muslim Rohingyas are still fleeing arbitrary arrest by border forces. - Reuters
 
Trans-Pacific Partnership
 
Canada on Tuesday became the second nation in two days to receive the go-ahead to join talks on an Asia-Pacific trade deal. – The Hill’s On the Money

Security

Defense
 
Senators from both parties are operating on multiple tracks to try to pry information from the Obama administration about the impact of $1 trillion in automatic spending cuts through sequestration that are set to take effect in January 2013. – DEFCON Hill
 
In a stemwinder for reporters at the defense titan’s annual media day, [Lockheed CEO Robert] Stevens gave many now-familiar arguments for why Congress must step in and prevent the sequester — then a twist. – DOD Buzz
 
How much will it really cost to shut down the Army's ill-fated Future Combat Systems program? Up to $1.5 billion, potentially three times the "special termination cost" reported by Inside Defense on Friday. – AOL Defense
 
Renewable fuels for U.S. military ships and jets are likely to remain “far more expensive” than petroleum products absent a technological breakthrough, a study for the U.S. Air Force found on Tuesday, questioning a Pentagon push for alternative energy. - Reuters
 
The War
 
The House Judiciary Committee on Tuesday voted to reauthorize a law that gives officials broad leeway to conduct surveillance overseas when the target isn’t a U.S. citizen. – DEFCON Hill
 
Missile Defense
 
Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Moscow's strong opposition to the U.S. missile defense system on Tuesday, saying that President Barack Obama's re-election would not end the dispute and insisting on joint development of the shield. - Reuters

Russia/Europe

Russia
 
Faced with steep fines for protests that don’t follow strict rules set by the government, Russian activists have devised new and creative ways to oppose President Vladimir Putin, redefining protest to test the rules. – LA Times’ World Now
 
A Senate panel postponed a vote on a Russian human-rights bill until next Tuesday after a panel member asked for a delay. – The Hill’s Global Affairs
 
A half-dozen former U.S. trade representatives are urging Congress to grant Russia permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) before the August recess. – The Hill’s On the Money
 
The U.S. ambassador to Russia took to Twitter on Tuesday to downplay reports of friction between President Obama and Russian leader Vladimir Putin at their meeting Monday on the margins of the G-20 summit in Mexico. – The Hill’s Global Affairs
 
No necessity exists for Russia to pursue a new extended-distance bomber to supplant its current aircraft, RIA Novosti quoted Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin as saying on Tuesday – Global Security Newswire
 
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton writes: Russia's membership in the WTO will soon be a fact of life. Failing to extend permanent normal trading relations will not penalize Russia, nor will it provide a lever with which to change Moscow's behavior. It will only hurt American workers and American companies. By extending those trading relations, we can create new markets for our people and support the political and economic changes that Russia's people are demanding. These reforms will ultimately make Russia a more just and open society as well as a better partner over the long term for the U.S. – Wall Street Journal
 
France
 
A man claiming to be a member of al Qaeda has taken several hostages in a bank in the southwestern French city of Toulouse, a police union source said on Wednesday. - Reuters

Americas

United States of America
 
Should Mitt Romney become president, he likely would use the same kind of nonconfrontational approach to China that occupants of the Oval Office have used for over four decades, says one foreign policy analyst. - DOTMIL
 
President Barack Obama says Mitt Romney’s campaign advisers should quit criticizing him on foreign policy — especially since they don’t know what they’re talking about. - Politico
 
President Obama’s not-so-secret counterterrorism fight against al-Qaida in Yemen and Somalia, the killing of Osama bin Laden and strong hints of a cyber war against Iran give Republicans few openings to challenge the commander in chief. – Associated Press
 
Latin America
 
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez forecast he would win October's election with more than 60 percent of the vote after a new poll showed on Tuesday he held a large lead over his opposition rival. - Reuters
 
Haitian President Michel Joseph Martelly published an amended version of the constitution on Tuesday that created new institutions and granted voting rights to Haitians with dual citizenship. - Reuters
 
A new, briefer Fidel Castro has emerged in Cuba, where for the past 10 days he has been dispensing varied bits of wisdom in Twitteresque pieces that have people wondering what he is up to - Reuters
 
Falklands
 
U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron sought out Argentine President Cristina Kirchner at the summit of Group of 20 leaders Tuesday and told her she should respect the results of a planned Falkland Islands referendum on sovereignty, U.K. officials said. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Africa

Nigeria
 
Nigerian Muslims took to the streets in the northern city of Kaduna on Tuesday, firing AK-47s, burning tires and destroying at least one church, two days after rioting by Christian youths killed 52 people, witnesses said. - Reuters
 
East Africa
 
Water will run out in just nine days for tens of thousands of refugees who have fled from Sudan into South Sudan, overwhelming the few camps in a parched stretch of Upper Nile state, the aid agency Doctors Without Borders said Tuesday. – LA Times’ World Now
 
Zimbabwe
 
Robert Mugabe has said that no new licences will be issued to foreign companies to exploit Zimbabwe’s ­mineral wealth. – Financial Times