FPI Overnight Brief: June 18, 2012

Middle East/North Africa

Iran
 
A new round of talks on Iran’s nuclear ambitions began in Moscow on Monday, with a significant gap looming between the two sides’ positions as painful new sanctions are set to come into effect to further isolate Tehran from world oil and banking markets. – New York Times
 
As Iran prepares for a fresh round of nuclear talks Monday, the country is facing an unprecedented tide of bad economic news, led by sharply falling petroleum exports that are expected to plummet further when new international sanctions kick in two weeks from now, diplomats and financial analysts say. – Washington Post
 
Whether choking off Iran’s main source of revenue will persuade Tehran to accept a deal that curbs its nuclear ambitions is the critical question at these talks, which follow inconclusive meetings in Baghdad and Istanbul. – New York Times
 
Josh Rogin reports: Nearly half the Senate told President Barack Obama [Friday] that unless Iran gives three specific concessions at this weekend's talks with world powers in Moscow, he should abandon the ongoing negotiations over the country's nuclear program. – The Cable
 
FPI Director William Kristol and Executive Director Jamie Fly write: President Obama says a nuclear Iran is unacceptable. The real and credible threat of force is probably the last hope of persuading the Iranian regime to back down. So: Isn’t it time for the president to ask Congress for an Authorization for Use of Military Force against Iran’s nuclear program? – The Weekly Standard
 
Ray Takeyh writes: Given that he seems disinclined to adjust his objective of nuclear empowerment, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is confident of his strategy: In the past decade he has managed to cross successive Western “red lines.” Through similar persistence and patience, he perceives that he can once more obtain the deal that he wants — a deal that is a prelude to the bomb. – Washington Post
 
Dennis Ross writes: The current incrementalism is a trap that could either force us to walk away from talks prematurely, or continue them in a way that will leave the Israelis believing the 5+1 is dragging out talks to pre-empt the Israeli use of force—a perception that will make it more likely Israel will feel compelled to act, not less. A process geared to clarifying whether a real deal is possible with Iran will require putting a credible proposal on the table. – The New Republic
 
Egypt
 
Egyptian news organizations declared Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood the winner of the country’s first competitive presidential race on Monday just hours after the ruling military council issued an interim constitution granting itself broad power over the future government, all but eliminating the president’s authority in an apparent effort to guard against just such a victory. – New York Times
 
Egypt lurched toward a divisive presidential runoff with the young protesters that sparked the revolution more than a year ago largely dispirited, and the biggest opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, reeling from a high court ruling to dissolve the newly elected Parliament they dominated. – Wall Street Journal
 
Egypt’s military leaders issued a constitutional decree Sunday that gave the armed forces sweeping powers and degraded the presidency to a subservient role, as the Muslim Brotherhood declared that its candidate had won the country’s presidential runoff election. – Washington Post
 
Egypt’s military rulers moved to consolidate power Friday on the eve of the presidential runoff election, shutting down the Islamist-led Parliament, locking out lawmakers and seizing the sole right to issue laws even after a new head of state takes office. – New York Times
 
Egypt's Arab Spring revolution, which toppled Mr. Mubarak in 18 days, has stalled in a quagmire of divide-and-conquer politics, leaving the country's revolutionaries splintered and disillusioned. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
The Brotherhood’s aim today appears to be to gradually instill law on public policy. But its more immediate concern is to implement Islamic banking and finance to fix Egypt’s economy, which has been battered by years of corruption and more recently by unrest and big losses in tourism and foreign investment. – LA Times’ World Now
 
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta reached out to the head of Egypt's ruling military council days after the group dissolved the country's Parliament, casting further doubt on the stability of Egypt's burgeoning democracy. – DEFCON Hill
 
Editorial: The generals may have been encouraged to believe that the United States would accept further backward steps, such as the dissolution of the parliament. For that reason, the administration must now be clear in its public and private communications to Cairo: If the democratic process is not restored, U.S. relations with the Egyptian military will be ruptured. – Washington Post
 
Matthew Kaminski writes: Without a real parliament and elections that matter, Egyptian politics could return to a standoff between the Islamists and the old guard, with liberals and the young squeezed out. Democracy and true stability lay down a road that Egypt's establishment didn't take. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Syria
 
The United Nations mission in Syria on Saturday suspended the activities of observers in the country, citing a surge in violence over the past ten days that was impeding the unarmed monitors' work and putting them in significant danger. – Wall Street Journal
 
Russia’s chief arms exporter said Friday that his company was shipping advanced defensive missile systems to Syria that could be used to shoot down airplanes or sink ships if the United States or other nations try to intervene to halt the country’s spiral of violence. – New York Times
 
The head of the United Nations observer mission in Syria on Sunday urged both sides in the conflict to take "immediate action" to facilitate the evacuation of civilians trapped amid escalating violence. – Los Angeles Times
 
Syria's government stepped up attacks across the country that trapped thousands of Syrians in besieged towns, activists said, a day after United Nations monitors stopped their work there due to a surge in violence. The attacks raised fears that the suspension of the U.N. mission would lead to even greater violence and chaos, as the only peace plan for Syria unraveled. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Russia would lose a source of revenue and a Middle East power base if Syrian President Bashar Assad falls - two reasons why Moscow has armed the regime and blocked votes to let the United Nations punish Damascus. – Washington Times
 
Today, as Assad’s government responds with unrelenting force to a popular uprising of the sort that has brought down regimes across the Middle East over the past 18 months, Syria’s ruler has embraced his image as a global pariah. – Washington Post
 
Russia is deploying another batch of troops to Syria as Moscow and Washington continue to spar over the best way to resolve the worsening crisis in the country. – DEFCON Hill
 
Thomas Donnelly writes: Until now. Obama has insisted that the “tide of war” across the Middle East is “receding.”…This is an unrealistic belief, one that ignores balance-of-power politics. The survival of the Assad regime, saved by its Russian, Chinese, and Iranian sponsors, would upset the international order far beyond the troubles created by the regime’s demise. – The Weekly Standard
 
Saudi Arabia
 
The death of Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz al Saud, announced by state media on Saturday, launched oil-rich Saudi Arabia into what analysts said may be one of the last readily forecast successions among the aging sons of the kingdom's founder. – Wall Street Journal
 
After Prince Nayef was buried in Mecca on Sunday, the ruling family faced the task of filling not just the role of crown prince, but also, if Prince Salman is chosen for that, possibly two other crucial positions — defense minister and minister of the interior, a post that Prince Nayef also held. – New York Times
 
Saudi Arabia wants to buy 600-800 Leopard battle tanks from Germany, more than twice as many as originally envisaged, the Sunday newspaper Bild am Sonntag reported, quoting government sources. - AFP
 
Karen House writes: Clearly, a growing number of frustrated Saudis no longer either respect or fear their leaders. Saudis are not demanding democracy; only transparent, efficient, honest government. They want a leader who can make the sclerotic system function better. Yet, much like the Soviet Union in its final years when power passed from one old man to another—Brezhnev to Andropov to Chernenko—in quick succession, the Saudi royal family continues to pass the crown from one aged son of the founder to the next. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Yemen
 
An important military commander in Yemen was assassinated on Monday in the southern port city Aden just days after the Yemeni government announced a major military victory over Al Qaeda militants. – New York Times
 
Iraq
 
A security clampdown aimed at protecting Shiite pilgrims failed to prevent a new round of carnage on Saturday as two car bombings in Baghdad killed more than 30 at the end of a weeklong celebration. – New York Times
 
Israel
 
Gunmen in Egypt’s Sinai peninsula fired across the border with Israel early Monday, killing a worker on a frontier fence being built to block illegal migrants and armed infiltrators, the Israeli army said. – Washington Post
 
In his most expansive public comments since he was released eight months ago, Gilad Shalit revealed how his love for sports had kept him going through five years of captivity in Gaza, while providing some personal connection with his captors from the Islamic militant group Hamas. – New York Times
 
[T]he "Arab Spring" has turned the equation on its head, with longtime hard-liners who had resided in relative comfort in Syria adopting a more conciliatory tone as they scramble for safe haven — and leaders in Gaza emboldened by the rise in neighboring Egypt of the Muslim Brotherhood, which helped create the Palestinian militant group in the late 1980s – New York Times
 
Many residents here in the Neve Shaanan area of south Tel Aviv complain of rampant crime by migrants and say that it has become “Soweto,” a reference to the site of a 1976 uprising in South Africa…But the government clampdown is also ripping at Israel’s soul – New York Times
 
Israel’s government watchdog has slammed the sloppy security decisions that led to the killing of nine Turkish activists in May 2010, and warns of severe consequences if the country’s top decision-makers don’t fix their communications problems ahead of a major campaign, such as a prospective attack on Iran. – Defense News
 
Interview: President Obama presented the Medal of Freedom to Israeli President Shimon Peres at a dinner at the White House on Wednesday…The morning after the White House dinner, Peres sat down with The Washington Post’s Lally Weymouth at Blair House to discuss Syria, Iran and U.S. presidents from Kennedy to Obama. – Washington Post

Asia

South Asia
 
Not long ago, judges and journalists were clearly on the same team in Pakistan, reveling in a shared crusade to expose the corrupt, hold the powerful to account and reshape the dynamics of a fragile democracy. Now, following a cascade of explosive scandals, they are at each other’s throats. – New York Times
 
Two bombings killed at least 32 people on Saturday in the Khyber tribal region, according to a senior regional administration official and The Associated Press. – New York Times
 
The United Nations Development Program on Sunday placed its assistant Afghanistan country director and the head of its $1.4 billion Afghan police trust fund on administrative leave amid an investigation into suspected fraud, according to Western and U.N. officials in Kabul. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
A June 1 attack on a U.S. outpost near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border was much worse than originally disclosed by the military as insurgents pounded the base with a truck bomb, killing two Americans and seriously wounding about three dozen troops, officials acknowledged Saturday. – Washington Post
 
Gary Schmitt writes: Americans have engaged in prolonged wars, cold and hot, in the past. What’s key is a sense that success is possible and, in turn, a president willing to make the case that success is not only possible but necessary. Unfortunately, this is not the president we have. – The Weekly Standard
 
China
 
As they prepare for a once-in-a-generation turnover of power, China’s leaders appear to be seeking a quick and quiet resolution in the case of Bo Xilai, a top official ousted from his Communist Party posts, Western diplomats and Chinese analysts say. – Washington Post
 
Chinese officials, bending to public pressure, have announced an investigation into the death of a veteran labor activist whose body was found hanging from a hospital window this month, days after he gave a series of interviews in which he vowed to continue fighting to end the Communist Party’s monopoly on power. – New York Times
 
Chinese authorities suspended family-planning officials who forced a woman to have a late-term abortion after news of the case sparked a torrent of outrage online and refocused attention on abuses carried out under the country's one-child policy. – Wall Street Journal
 
Forced abortions and sterilizations are the bane of villagers in this gentle farmland along the easternmost stretch of the Yellow River, about 200 miles southeast of Beijing. Across the country, overzealous enforcement of family planning rules, along with land confiscations, is one of the biggest sources of anger toward the Chinese Communist Party. – Los Angeles Times
 
A Tibetan herder in China’s northwest Qinghai Province died on Friday after setting himself on fire to protest government policies in the region, according to exile groups and Radio Free Asia. – New York Times
 
After nearly a decade of President Hu Jintao’s focus on strengthening the state, a broad consensus of Chinese economists says the country is overdue for another big push to encourage private enterprise and to foster a shift toward a more consumer-driven economy. The challenge, they say, is turning back China’s domineering state sector. – New York Times
 
A World Trade Organization panel has ruled that China violated some global trade rules by imposing duties on U.S. electrical steel, a key victory the Obama administration said would be used as a precedent for challenging other retaliatory measures from Beijing. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
East Asia
 
North Korea on Sunday accused Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton of being “reckless” for advising its new leader to give priority to improving the lives of his people instead of spending money on weapons. – New York Times
 
As the US commander in Korea requests reinforcements against the Northern threat and the Chinese stage one of their regular river-crossing exercises along the Yalu, conservatives in South Korea are campaigning to keep the joint US-Korean military headquarters that is currently slated to be dissolved in 2015. – AOL Defense
 
Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has raised concerns over scheduled negotiations in July for a new United Nations Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) that could cripple U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. – Defense News
 
Central Asia
 
The U.S. military is in talks with several Central Asian countries to transfer some of their military hardware to them after they pull out of Afghanistan, a Russian newspaper reported June 15. - AFP
 
Southeast Asia
 
When the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded [Aung San Suu Kyi] the prize, she said in her Nobel lecture here on Saturday, 21 years later, it was recognition that “the oppressed and the isolated in Burma were also a part of the world, they were recognizing the oneness of humanity.” But “it did not seem quite real, because in a sense I did not feel myself to be quite real at that time,” she said. “The Nobel Peace Prize opened up a door in my heart.” – New York Times
 
[As Burma] makes a delicate transition to democracy, hateful comments are also flourishing online about a Muslim ethnic group, the Rohingya, that is embroiled in sectarian clashes in western Myanmar that have left more than two dozen people dead. – New York Times
 
Those accustomed to thinking of [Singapore] as a bastion of apolitical strivers and shopaholics might be stunned by the burst of civic activism sweeping this crowded flyspeck of an island. – New York Times
 
Before Aung SanSuu Kyi was a prisoner of conscience and a political icon, she inhabited a world of children’s birthday parties, university libraries and bicycle-filled English suburbs. – Associated Press

Security

Defense
 
The White House is challenging Congress to “do its job” and prevent the automatic spending cuts that are looming for the Pentagon. – DEFCON Hill
 
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney promises to increase defense spending by close to $2 trillion over the next 10 years. But his plans have people asking: where would the money come from? – Defense News
 
The Defense Department will limit the number of new U.S. bases in the Pacific and lean upon on bilateral security agreements to help execute the Pentagon's security strategy in the region. – DEFCON Hill
 
Proliferating anti-access weapons and non-state actors bristling with advanced armaments will complicate U.S. military intervention overseas, according to the results of a major U.S. Army war game. – Defense News
 
The War
 
Opening the window just a little further into his secret war on terrorists, President Obama publicly acknowledged for the first time on Friday that United States military forces had taken “direct action” against groups affiliated with Al Qaeda in Somalia and Yemen. – New York Times
 
After a decade of costly conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan, the American way of war is evolving toward less brawn, more guile. Drone aircraft spy on and attack terrorists with no pilot in harm’s way. Small teams of special operations troops quietly train and advise foreign forces. Viruses sent from computers to foreign networks strike silently, with no American fingerprint. – Associated Press
 
Celeste Ward Gventer writes: The debate over COIN is at an important turning point, and is in many ways just getting started. Scholars and strategic thinkers are increasingly engaging the ideas of counterinsurgency in new and sophisticated ways. This development should hearten supporters of the intellectual enterprise generally, as well as those who embrace the notion that better thinking can lead to better policy. – Shadow Government
 
Terry McDermott writes: Radical Islam is a cult within the larger body of the religion. It is not going to be defeated with bombs or bullets. It must be attacked and rooted out from within Islam, at the village and mosque level. Our main role in this fight is to embolden the Muslim majority to rally against the radicals. Right now, we're harming that goal more than helping. – Los Angeles Times
 
CTBT
 
Owen Graham writes: Should the U.S. finally ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)? Disarmament advocates say yes. They’re pointing to a new report from the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) as evidence that the technical issues surrounding the treaty have been resolved. They’re wrong. Contrary to these accounts, technical and policy disagreements related to CTBT remain. – Defense News
 
Cybersecurity
 
Editorial: An open debate would go a long way toward preparing the American people for what is certain to be decades of commitment and uncertainty in this new domain. – Washington Post

Russia/Europe

Russia
 
President Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin will use their meeting Monday, the first since Putin returned to Russia's top job, to claim leverage in a mutually dependent but volatile relationship. – Associated Press
 
Eli Lake reports: At this moment, when a unified opposition were taking to the streets, Kasparov said he expected more from the Obama administration. He was particularly furious at Secretary of State Hillary Clinton – The Daily Beast
 
Editorial: Aware that the Magnitsky bill is needed to pass the trade legislation, the administration has been seeking to gut the former by introducing language that would allow the State Department to waive sanctions or the publication of names on national security grounds…What’s most important is that Congress send Mr. Putin and his cadres the message that their lawless behavior will have consequences. – Washington Post
 
Europe
 
President Viktor Yanukovich, ousted from power in the Orange Revolution of 2004 but given a second chance by voters in 2010, has spent two years trying to re-create the “vertical of power” that has sustained his neighbor in Russia, Vladimir Putin. The chief hallmarks — corruption, cronyism, vindictive use of the courts — are in place. But Ukraine is missing the wealth from oil and gas that has bolstered Putin’s government, and the cracks are not hard to find. – Washington Post
 
Ukraine’s president, Viktor F. Yanukovich, said in an interview published [last] week that he wanted to pardon Yulia V. Tymoshenko, the country’s jailed former prime minister and his main political rival, but did not have the legal authority to do so, a claim Ms. Tymoshenko’s lawyer scoffed at on Friday. – New York Times
 
Britain will announce this week a £1 billion ($1.57 billion, 1.24 billion euro) contract to build reactors for its next generation of nuclear submarines, the defence minister said June 17. - AFP

Americas

United States of America
 
Federal authorities have interviewed more than 100 people in two separate investigations into the public disclosure of classified national security information, the start of a process that could take months or even years, according to officials familiar with the probes. – Washington Post
 
Josh Rogin reports: Senator and Romney presidential campaign surrogate John McCain (R-AZ) said Thursday that casino magnate Sheldon Adelson is indirectly injecting millions of dollars in Chinese "foreign money" into Mitt Romney's presidential election effort. – The Cable
 
Graham Allison writes: Five decades later, the Cuban missile crisis stands not just as a pivotal moment in the history of the Cold War but also as a guide for how to make sound decisions about foreign policy. – International Herald Tribune
 
Venezuela
 
As President Hugo Chavez battles a cancer that has sidelined him for much of the past year, a group of loyal associates has stepped into the spotlight, sparking speculation across a polarized political landscape over who could replace the fiery leader should his condition force him from office. – Washington Post

Africa

Nigeria
 
Suicide car bombers attacked three churches in a northern Nigerian state on Sunday, killing at least 19 people and wounding dozens, and setting off retaliatory attacks by Christian youths who dragged Muslims from cars and killed them, officials and witnesses said. - Reuters
 
South Africa
 
The tension between those two sometimes-contradictory [legal] worlds has reached a breaking point in the past year as South Africa’s government pushes a measure to give traditional courts the force of law, compelling people in many rural areas to appear before them to answer charges that they have violated community traditions. – New York Times

Obama Administration

For Barack Obama, a president who set out to restore good relations with the world in his first term, the world does not seem to be cooperating all that much with his bid to win a second. – New York Times
 
Peter Feaver writes: [I]t is ironic that elections have proven so difficult for the administration -- indeed, pretty much every election (domestic and foreign) has produced a setback for Obama. The domestic electoral setbacks are obvious, but the foreign electoral setbacks have been consequential as well. – Shadow Government