FPI Overnight Brief: June 15, 2012

Middle East/North Africa

Iran
 
The foreign ministers of Britain and Iran conferred on the sidelines of a security conference in Afghanistan on Thursday, the highest-level contact between the two nations since relations were nearly severed after protesters in Tehran overran and pillaged the British Embassy and a diplomatic residence in November. – New York Times
 
Heading into Iran nuclear talks next week, Tehran's top demand is that Western powers acknowledge its right to uranium enrichment, reports the Tehran Times. – Christian Science Monitor
 
At only 47 years of age, Iran's top nuclear negotiator Said Jalili has already held several key posts in the Iranian government…Observers believe that Khamenei's deep trust in Jalili could soon push him further up the country's political ladder. There are already signs that the scene is being set for Jalili's progress. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
 
Iran has arrested the killers of two of its nuclear scientists, state media reported on Thursday, as the Islamic state continues to hunt down those it says are responsible for attempting to sabotage its nuclear program. - Reuters
 
Japan's lower house passed a bill on Friday to provide government guarantees on insurance for Iranian crude cargoes, a key step towards it becoming the first of Iran's big Asian oil buyers to get round new European Union sanctions. - Reuters
 
Syria
 
United Nations monitors in Syria reported fiery devastation, the smell of death, vacated homes, looted stores and vestiges of heavy weapons on Thursday during a visit to what had been a Sunni-populated village besieged for days by Syrian forces and pro-government militiamen who said they had cleansed it of rebel fighters. – New York Times
 
If deception has always been part of war, it has not often been as bungled as in the video announcement by Syrian opposition fighters of the formation of a special forces brigade joining the battle against President Bashar al-Assad. – New York Times
 
Ordinary life has slipped away in this mostly Sunni Muslim town of more than 30,000. But in its place has emerged at least a semblance of daily routine, a sort of new normal as Syrians are accepting the fact that the conflict that has roiled the country for 15 months is likely to continue indefinitely, despite international diplomatic efforts to restore peace and an armed rebellion's attempt to oust Assad. – Los Angeles Times
 
The U.S. military has completed its own planning for how American troops would conduct a variety of operations against Syria, or to assist neighboring countries in the event action was ordered, officials tell CNN. – CNN’s Security Clearance
 
Russia said on Friday it had not made any new deliveries of military helicopters to Syria but had sent repaired aircraft to the violence-torn country "many years ago". - Reuters
 
Britain's U.N. envoy said on Thursday time was running out for international mediator Kofi Annan's plan to bring peace to Syria and that the U.N. Security Council needs to take "much tougher action" to enforce the six-point strategy. - Reuters
 
World powers are working towards holding a crisis meeting on Syria in Geneva on June 30 to try to get a tattered peace plan back on track, diplomats said on Thursday, although Britain said the idea of Iran being in the meeting was "probably unworkable". - Reuters
 
The Islamic Republic appears to be running out of options if it is to maintain its influence in Syria and by extension its ability to manipulate events across the Middle East. - Reuters
 
Syrian rebels resting and recovering from wounds in Turkey say that far from receiving a host of heavy weapons to take the fight to government forces, they feel forgotten by their Western and Arab backers. - Reuters
 
The West is using Russia's opposition to tougher action against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as a pretext not to come up with its own solution to the crisis there, the head of the Russian parliament's foreign affairs committee said on Thursday. - Reuters
 
Daniel Nisman writes: While few in Jerusalem expect a peace agreement to follow Mr. Assad's downfall, Israeli leaders have made their position clear to the region and world: When it comes to Syria, they'll take anyone but Mr. Assad. – Wall Street Journal Europe (subscription required)
 
Thomas Stackpole writes: Ultimately, the most important impact of classifying Syria’s conflict as a “civil war” would be political, by ratcheting up the pressure on the international community to do something. If the rhetoric of civil war gains currency, look for demands for stricter sanctions and more determined resolutions from the U.N. Security Council. In that way, the consistent application of one small phrase could end up leading to one big step in the direction of military intervention. – The New Republic
 
Egypt
 
Egypt's 16-month transition toward democracy was thrust into turmoil just two days before the country's historic presidential election, as the country's highest court dissolved the Islamist-dominated parliament and its top generals took over legislative powers. – Wall Street Journal
 
They toppled a pharaoh, but now the small circle of liberals, leftists and Islamists who orchestrated Egypt’s revolution say they realize they failed to uproot the networks of power that Hosni Mubarak nurtured for nearly three decades. – New York Times
 
The 60-year-old presidential candidate speaks of inclusion even as ultraconservative clerics herald him as the leader a new Islamic caliphate. He has reached out to Egyptians with a kaleidoscope of unpolished sound bites — while calling Israelis "killers" and "vampires" — but the Brotherhood's opaque nature has masked Morsi's deeper political intentions if he and his fellow Islamists end up controlling the government. – Los Angeles Times
 
The United States expects Egypt's military authorities to fully transfer power to a democratically elected civilian government as planned, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Thursday. - Reuters
 
Activists called for a protest on Friday and Islamists warned that the gains of the revolt that toppled Hosni Mubarak could be wiped out after Egypt's supreme court dissolved parliament and ruled to keep his last premier in this weekend's presidential race. - Reuters
 
Egyptian rights groups and members of the opposition filed appeals on Thursday to overturn a government decree that would give military police and intelligence the ability to detain civilians. - Reuters
 
Editorial: The court decision is stunningly cynical, yet not unexpected. It isn't a death knell for Egyptian democracy, but it's a setback. The establishment has again chosen short-term tactical calculation over an orderly and consensus-based transition to democracy. The ruling signals a return to backroom deal-making and the bad old days of Egyptian politics. - Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Mara Revkin and Yussef Auf write: Egypt's political forces should take the necessary time -- a matter of months, not days -- to choose a Constituent Assembly that is sufficiently diverse and neutral to rewrite Egypt's legal framework on a clean slate. The new constitution will provide the blueprint for a democratic system and new social contract built on rule of law, accountability, and justice. If it this document is to stand the test of time, it cannot be written at breakneck speed. – Foreign Policy’s Democracy Lab
 
Jane Harman writes: While the Burmese may have been impressed with events in Tahrir Square last year, Egypt should be looking to Myanmar’s example now. Egyptians are due to head to the polls this weekend but democratic change seems increasingly elusive. Myanmar, meanwhile, has moved further and faster toward real political reform. - Politico
 
North Africa
 
A recent string of attacks on Western diplomats and international organizations has sparked fears that extremists are trying to destabilize Libya’s first post-revolution national elections. – Washington Post
 
Despite pressure from international courts, NATO and rights groups, the Libyan authorities who are detaining a lawyer from the International Criminal Court and three members of the court’s staff say they will not be released until the lawyer answers questions about her dealings with Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, a son of the former dictator, a Libyan official in Tripoli said. – New York Times
 
Morocco may have avoided the upheaval of an Arab Spring revolution, but it faces other challenges due to its economic closeness to crisis-riddled Europe and heavy reliance on remittances. – Washington Times
 
Like other countries emerging from dictatorship, Tunisia now faces the delicate process of transitional justice: holding accountable those responsible for crimes while uncovering the truth about how – and why – they occurred. That could offer lessons for Arab Spring countries such as Egypt and Libya, where the fall of dictators offers a chance to lay history bare. – Christian Science Monitor
 
Libya's Supreme Court scrapped a new law that criminalized the glorification of ousted leader Muammar Gaddafi or his supporters on Thursday after opponents argued it violated freedom of expression. - Reuters
 
Gulf States
 
The United States said on Thursday it was "deeply disappointed" by a Bahrain court verdict which failed to strike down sentences against medics over their role in last year's pro-democracy uprising. - Reuters
 
U.S. President Barack Obama spoke with Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah on Thursday amid concerns about escalating violence in Syria and plans to widen sanctions on Iran. - Reuters
 
Yemen
 
Yemen's army recaptured the third al Qaeda stronghold in Abyan province on Friday, officials and residents said, in the latest major success for a U.S.-backed offensive to drive Islamist militants from towns they seized more than a year ago. - Reuters
 
Iraq
 
The nomination of the president's pick to be ambassador to Iraq appeared to be in jeopardy Thursday as Senate Democrats raised concerns about recent revelations of questionable conduct. - CNN
 
Israel
 
The clock is ticking for 30 Jewish settler families in the occupied West Bank. Israel's Supreme Court has said their homes sit on privately-owned Palestinian land and as an eviction deadline draws near, they say they will not go quietly. - Reuters
 
Elliott Abrams writes: [T]he failure of Israel to establish a strong NSC cannot be attributed to Netanyahu, or certainly not to him alone. So the bottom line for me is that this Comptroller’s report seems unfair. Blaming Bibi is not good enough. – Pressure Points

Asia

South Asia
 
Years of mutual mistrust and tactical mistakes, now complicated by upcoming elections in both countries, have brought the strategic relationship between the United States and Pakistan closer than ever to a dead end that neither appears able or willing to avoid. – Washington Post
 
U.S. negotiators have resolved critical cost issues with their Pakistani counterparts regarding vital supply routes running through the country into Afghanistan, according to one senior defense lawmaker. – DEFCON Hill
 
A contract unveiled on Wednesday is set to enable an Indian firm and a U.S. company to collaborate in initial preparations for assembling atomic energy facilities in the South Asian nation's western territory, the Associated Press reported – Global Security Newswire
 
India's Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee will step down on June 24 to contest the presidential election, television channels reported on Friday, clearing the way for a cabinet shakeup at a time when the government is struggling with a faltering economy. - Reuters
 
China
 
When party members are caught breaking the rules — or even when they merely displease a superior — they can be dragged into the maw of an opaque Soviet-style disciplinary machine, known as “shuanggui,” that features physical torture and brutal, sleep-deprived interrogations. And that is exactly what appears to have happened to Bo Xilai, once one of China’s most charismatic and ambitious politicians. – New York Times
 
A Chinese state-security official arrested this year on allegations of spying for Washington is suspected to have compromised some of China's U.S. agents in a major setback that angered President Hu Jintao, sources said. - Reuters
 
Chinese authorities have vowed to punish officials who forced a woman who was seven-months pregnant to have an abortion in a case that has sparked outrage over methods used to impose strict family planning rules. - Reuters
 
China's biggest milk producer by revenue, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co, has recalled baby formula tainted with "unusual" levels of mercury in the latest safety scare for the country's dairy sector. - Reuters
 
China has rejected U.S. criticisms during a review of its trade policies at the World Trade Organization and used the occasion to suggest many U.S. accusations were not only groundless but in some areas hypocritical. - Reuters
 
East Asia
 
The man thought to be the final suspect from the doomsday cult behind the 1995 nerve-gas poisoning in a crowded subway station here that killed 13 people and sickened thousands of others was arrested on Friday, the police said. – New York Times
 
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Thursday urged North Korea's new leader to chart a different course than his father, saying he could become a transformative figure who steers his nation away from a dark history of starvation and oppression. - Reuters
 
Burma
 
Decades-old ethnic divisions that have spawned the bloodiest clashes in years in remote areas of Myanmar are threatening to take the shine off the country's new image as Asia's next big frontier market. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, recovering from a brief illness, attended a session of the Swiss parliament on Friday hours before she was due to fly to Oslo to finally collect her 1991 Nobel Peace Prize. - Reuters
 
Armed troops patrolled the northwest Myanmar city of Sittwe on Friday after days of sectarian violence that has stoked nationalist fervor and displaced 30,000 people, with many feared dead. - Reuters
 
Editorial: Burma's opening is encouraging, but the country's long-term prospects will be damaged if foreign investors are burned and conclude it's not worth the trouble. The smart money will come in gradually as the government makes progress on reform. – Wall Street Journal Asia (subscription required)
 
Editorial: The Burmese government ought to be put on notice that if it does not counter the forces on both sides that want to indulge the desire for revenge, it will be held responsible for the consequences. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Security

Defense
 
The U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee chairman predicted June 14 that Congress will find a way to avoid automatic budget cuts in January that could hurt national security, but he added that any ultimate budget agreement won’t leave the U.S. Defense Department unscathed. – Defense News
 
Congress must act by fall -- before the election -- and pass some sort of answer to sequestration, says the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. – AOL Defense
 
Senate Republicans are accusing Democrats of increasing their demands in a potential deal to stave off automatic defense cuts as lawmakers continue to work behind closed doors to reach a bipartisan solution. – DEFCON Hill
 
The United States is still the world's indispensable nation and we'll probably avoid sequestration, albeit by the skin of our teeth. That's the modestly reassuring message from the unlikely duo of Michèle Flournoy, who recently left her job as under secretary of defense for policy, and Dov Zakheim, Pentagon comptroller under George W. Bush. – AOL Defense
 
The Air Force needs to “come to grips” with the unacceptably high number of hypoxia-like incidents affecting F-22 pilots, congressional leaders said Thursday, while announcing a new theory that could explain the breathing problems: life-protecting vests worn in flight. – Military Times
 
The latest crash of a V-22 tiltrotor may be a black mark on the aircraft's safety record, but it won't bring down the program. Despite literally decades of criticism -- which is now certain to flare up again -- there's simply too much budgetary momentum, political support, and, yes, operational value to the V-22. – AOL Defense
 
The unmanned aircraft most likely to become the first to takeoff and land on aircraft carriers is moving to the next phase of testing, moving from Edwards Air Force Base to the Navy's main operational test site at Patuxent River, Md. – AOL Defense
 
The United States is headed for a record-breaking year for foreign military sales, thanks to a $29.4 billion sale of Boeing-made F-15 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, according to Andrew Shapiro, assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs. – Defense News
 
Patrick Stadt writes: The Patrol Frigate is an optimum balance of affordability, capability, and proven performance for low-conflict, high-endurance missions and would be a cost effective addition to combatant fleets around the world. – DoD Buzz
 
The War
 
[The U.S. military] has largely outsourced the spying operation to private contractors. The contractors supply the aircraft as well as the pilots, mechanics and other personnel to help process electronic intelligence collected from the airspace over Uganda, Congo, South Sudan and the Central African Republic. – Washington Post
 
U.S. surveillance operations in Africa are dependent on permission from countries willing to host bases for the spy planes. In exchange, those countries usually insist that the Americans share intelligence gleaned from the skies. – Washington Post
 
Nuclear Weapons
 
The chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee called on the Obama administration on Thursday to seek cuts in nuclear warheads far beyond the requirements of current treaties. – New York Times
 
Law of the Sea Treaty
 
Top George W. Bush administration officials clashed Thursday over whether the United States should join a maritime treaty at the United Nations. – The Hill’s Global Affairs
 
Proponents of a treaty governing the high seas rolled out military star power Thursday to try to lift the prospects for a long-spurned pact that faces strong conservative Republican opposition. – Associated Press
 
Missile Defense
 
A House-proposed plan for a new missile defense system along the Eastern seaboard will be a major sticking point when House and Senate negotiators meet to hammer out a final version of the Pentagon's fiscal 2013 spending plan. – DEFCON Hill

Russia/Europe

Russia
 
Russia’s chief federal investigator apologized on Thursday for an “emotional breakdown,” a day after he was publicly accused of threatening the life of a journalist. – New York Times
 
Russian Gen. Nikolai Makarov has created a political stir and generated a backlash from Finland and Sweden after he warned the neutral Nordic states that any moves to join or develop closer ties with NATO would be construed as hostile actions toward Moscow. – Defense News
 
Europe
 
The British government could maintain control of a ballistic missile submarine installation in Scotland in the event the territory votes to secede from the United Kingdom, Armed Forces Minister Nick Harvey said on Wednesday – Global Security Newswire
 
Germany and France agreed on Thursday to deepen military cooperation in areas ranging from satellites and missile defense to arms procurement, aiming to extract maximum value from shrinking defense budgets. - Reuters
 
The husband of jailed Ukrainian opposition politician Yulia Tymoshenko accused President Viktor Yanukovich on Thursday of destroying justice in the former Soviet republic after Yanukovich linked his foe to a 16-year-old murder case. - Reuters
 
Kosovar President Atifete Jahjaga said: [B]uilding true friendship between all our people will take time. But guided by democracy, development, security and inclusion, we are on the right path. It’s one we would urge people in strife-torn areas around the world to join us on. – The Hill’s Global Affairs

Americas

Latin America
 
Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) visited a jailed American in Bolivia this week and accompanied him to a court hearing Smith said was “beset by irregularities.” – The Hill’s Global Affairs
 
The Senate on Thursday approved President Obama's envoy to El Salvador despite Republican efforts to derail Mari Carmen Aponte's nomination over her public support for gay rights and allegations that she was romantically involved with a Cuban spy two decades ago. – The Hill’s Global Affairs
 
[Venezuela] suffers from one of the highest homicide rates in the world, and a rising wave of violent crime is voters’ biggest concern ahead of presidential elections on October 7. The issue could turn the tables on the cancer-suffering Mr Chávez, who leads the polls and who registered as a candidate on Monday. – Financial Times
 
Venezuela has developed its own unarmed aerial drone with help from Iran, China and Russia, according to President Hugo Chavez, who said the drones had military and civilian uses. - AFP
 
The number of Cubans linked to the country's state-controlled intranet jumped more than 40 percent in 2011 compared to the previous year and mobile phone use rose 30 percent, the government reported, even as Cuba's population remained largely cut off from unfettered access to the Internet. - Reuters
 
Assailants kidnapped and killed a reporter who covered the crime beat in Mexico's Veracruz state, officials said on Thursday, the latest in a series of attacks on journalists amid a relentless drug war across the country. - Reuters
 
Falklands
 
Prime Minister David Cameron warned Argentina on Thursday that London stood "ready and willing" to defend the Falkland Islands, 30 years after Britain recaptured the South Atlantic archipelago whose sovereignty remains a hotly contested issue. - Reuters
 
Argentina's President Cristina Fernandez made a highly unusual appearance at a U.N. decolonization committee on Thursday where she argued that the Falklands Islands are Argentine territory and should not be under British rule. - Reuters

Africa

East Africa
 
Sudan said it had agreed to resume talks next week with South Sudan to end hostilities between the arch-foes, state news agency SUNA said on Thursday. - Reuters
 
Central Africa
 
U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon has warned that an African Union and U.S.-backed military force hunting fugitive warlord Joseph Kony and his Lord's Resistance Army lacks resources needed to be effective. - Reuters
 
Zimbabwe
 
Zimbabwe's army is suffering food shortages after recruiting thousands of new soldiers without authority from the cash-strapped treasury, Finance Minister Tendai Biti said on Thursday. - Reuters

Return to Top

Democracy and Human Rights

Companies that want to operate in countries with repressive regimes need to minimize the way their technologies can be abused by the government, according to a new report commissioned by an Internet-freedom coalition. – National Journal

Sunday Shows

As of publication, the following shows had announced that they will host foreign policy-related guests on their programming, Sunday:
 
Face the Nation: Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
 
Fox News Sunday: Sen. Joe Lieberman (ID-CT) and former CIA Director Michael Hayden