FPI Overnight Brief: May 22, 2012

Middle East/North Africa

Iran
 
In an apparent breakthrough, the leader of the United Nations nuclear monitoring arm said on Tuesday that despite unspecified differences, he expects to sign a deal with Iran “quite soon” on the arrangements for an investigation into potential military applications of Tehran’s disputed nuclear program. – New York Times
 
China's imports of Iranian crude oil recovered in April after sharp drops earlier this year, suggesting Beijing remains a steady customer despite U.S. efforts to tighten sanctions on Tehran. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
A South Korean official said Tuesday that media reports this week that suggested South Korea would stop importing crude oil from Iran in the next couple of months regardless of whether cutting off such imports are requested by the U.S. and the European Union "aren't factual." – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
After a public spat last week, Senate Democrats and Republicans reached a deal Monday and unanimously passed tougher economic sanctions aimed at deterring Iran from developing nuclear weapons. - Politico
 
Iran is taking advantage of this year's U.S. presidential election to buy time to develop its nuclear weapons program, confident that the Obama administration wants to avoid provoking a foreign policy crisis ahead of the November vote, senior policy analysts and officials say. – Washington Examiner
 
Amitai Etzioni writes: With the next round of nuclear negotiations with Iran set to begin on Wednesday, commentators are increasingly suggesting that the prospects for their success are high. There has, however, been an alarming lack of discussion about the fact that Washington has been in the habit of constantly shifting its definition of what a “successful” outcome would consist of. – The New Republic
 
Syria
 
Lebanon’s capital was badly shaken Monday after a night of fighting between factions for and against the embattled president of neighboring Syria, stoking fears that the unrest across the border could spark serious violence here. – Washington Post
 
The brother-in-law of Syrian President Bashir al-Assad, who also is the troubled nation's former intelligence chief, is dead after an apparent assassination attack Sunday in Damascus, Syrian opposition leaders tell U.S. News & World Report. - DOTMIL
 
Syria's president is quickly spending through his cash reserves as sanctions choke off many sources of funding, but the regime is getting help from Iran in bolstering finances, CNN has learned. – CNN’s Security Clearance
 
U.S. and NATO officials say there is no planning going on to intervene in Syria despite continued fighting there as an international peace plan has failed to quell the violence. – DEFCON Hill
 
The United States and partner nations close to Syria are picking up the pace of strategizing for preventing the diversion of the Assad regime's chemical stockpile and other potential crises – Global Security Newswire
 
Analysis: A power struggle within Syria's main opposition group is pitting Islamists against secular politicians and exiled leaders against activists at home, further undermining its claim to be an alternative to President Bashar al-Assad. - Reuters
 
Editorial: NATO leaders might feel that if they don’t talk about Syria, these outcomes won’t be blamed on them. They are, after all, preoccupied in their search for the exit from Afghanistan. But President Obama and his allies cannot shirk this issue indefinitely. As Syria burns, the Libya “victory” rings increasingly hollow. – Washington Post
 
Egypt
 
The race for Egypt's president is tightening as a surge by a former prime minister has raised fresh conspiracy theories that remnants of deposed leader Hosni Mubarak's regime are angling for power. – Los Angeles Times
 
An Islamist who believes that the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States were an American conspiracy is the front-runner in Egypt’s presidential race, a new poll shows. – Washington Times
 
After Egyptian women stood shoulder to shoulder with men in the protests that toppled Hosni Mubarak, many looked forward to a role in the revolution’s next steps. But 15 months later, as Egyptians prepare to vote for a new president this week, rights activists complain that women are being excluded from key decisions. – Washington Post
 
Human Rights Watch has accused the Egyptian military of beating and torturing protesters detained during violent demonstrations earlier this month outside the Defense Ministry here. – LA Times’ World Now
 
Egypt's military rulers plan to spend close to $1 billion on diesel this summer, a spike in imports as they brace for a first free presidential election triggered by last year's uprising with a wary eye on renewed civil unrest. - Reuters
 
Shibley Telhami writes: As Egyptians vote to select a president later this week, it is heartening that no one really knows how it will turn out — not even the pollsters. Egyptian public opinion has been fluid, seemingly changing daily. Since the whole process is new, no one has a model for voter turnout. But with a poll I conducted among a sample of 772 Egyptians May 4-10 with JZ Analytics, we have a better picture of what Egyptians are looking for. - Politico
 
Yasser M. el-Shimy writes: This may be the generals’ last chance to peacefully produce a balanced and democratic political system reflecting the Muslim Brotherhood’s electoral prowess and the protest movement’s democratic aspirations, while protecting the interests so critical to the military. Ultimately, the SCAF should step aside, clearing the way to democratically elected civilian institutions; the trick is to make sure that happens in a safe, orderly and dignified manner. – International Herald Tribune
 
Bahrain
 
“No one goes to the hospital,” one protester said. Instead, the men traveled to one of dozens of houses that are scattered throughout this island nation, where a secret and growing network of caregivers — doctors, first-aid medics or people with no medical experience at all — wait daily for the casualties from the protests. The houses are not really field hospitals, but rather sitting rooms, often equipped with nothing more than bandages and gauze. – New York Times
 
A court in Bahrain on Monday fined Zainab al-Khawaja, the daughter of a prominent opposition activist, for insulting a government employee and her lawyer said she was still detained pending trial in a different case. - Reuters
 
The Arab League called on Tehran on Monday to halt what it described as a media campaign against Bahrain over a proposal for political and military union between Gulf Arab states. - Reuters
 
North Africa
 
Tunisia's Islamist-led government said on Monday it would punish conservative Salafi Muslims who attacked alcohol shops in a central town over the weekend, raising religious tensions in the home of the Arab Spring. - Reuters
 
Muammar Gaddafi's former spy chief Abdullah al-Senussi will stand trial in Mauritania for illegally entering the country, judicial sources said on Monday. - Reuters
 
Arab Spring
 
Industrialized nations have stepped up plans to help countries swept up in the Arab Spring rebuild their economies through more access to international credit markets, investment and trade, a senior State Department official said on Monday. - Reuters
 
Yemen
 
With its suicide attack that killed at least 90 people and injured scores Monday, al-Qaeda’s Yemen branch has expanded far outside its sphere of influence in the south, proving it can penetrate even the most sensitive military targets in the capital. – Washington Post
 
Yemeni soldiers marched in a National Day parade on Tuesday, watched from behind a bullet-proof glass shield by the president, in a show of defiance one day after a bomber killed more than 90 troops in an attack on the ceremony's rehearsal. - Reuters
 
Iraq
 
American military drones are returning to the skies above Iraq more than five months after U.S. troops withdrew from the country. – DEFCON Hill
 
Israel
 
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday it would be a "fatal mistake" ever to give up control over Jerusalem's holy sites. His remarks, in a parliamentary speech, went a little further than Israel's longtime policy of viewing Jerusalem, a city at the heart of Middle East conflict, as its "indivisible capital". - Reuters

Asia

Afghanistan
 
President Obama and the leaders of America’s NATO allies on Monday agreed to end their guiding role in the decade-long war in Afghanistan next summer, saying it is time for the Afghan people to take responsibility for their own security and for the United States-led international troops to go home. – New York Times
 
President Obama secured agreements from Washington's NATO allies about missile defense and keeping western forces in Afghanistan through 2014. But, in a blow to the president's hopes of calling the just-concluded Chicago summit a success, it became clear on Monday that NATO leaders had balked at spelling out how much each nation would spend on Afghanistan's security forces. - DOTMIL
 
Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, is expected to step down this summer after a year in the job, two U.S. officials familiar with the matter told CNN early Tuesday. - CNN
 
A House Republican who has been an outspoken critic of Afghanistan's central government has been banned from entering the country, Afghan president Hamid Karzai said Monday. – DEFCON Hill
 
The top U.S. military commander in Afghanistan says American troops will still be involved combat next year even as the U.S. officially shifts to a support role. – Associated Press
 
President Obama and leaders around the globe locked in place an Afghanistan exit path Monday that will still keep their troops fighting and dying there for two more years, acknowledging there never will be point at which they can say, “This is all done. This is perfect.” – Associated Press
 
Josh Rogin reports: As the war in Afghanistan winds down, Afghan women and those who support them are clamoring to make sure that years of progress in women's rights are not reversed as the international community leaves. – The Cable
 
Paul Miller writes: [A]s a whole, the new U.S.-Afghan strategic partnership is a strong signal of enduring American commitment to help one of the world's most failed states, and secure American interests in South Asia.  After more than ten years of effort with halting progress and fragile, reversible gains, such commitment is welcome. – AfPak Channel
 
South Asia
 
Zardari's refusal to reopen the supply routes left a diplomatic blot on a summit that NATO sought to cast as the beginning of the end of the conflict in Afghanistan. – Los Angeles Times
 
NATO leaders on May 21 called on Pakistan to reopen a key supply route into Afghanistan “as soon as possible” after talks with Islamabad on the border crossing faltered. - AFP
 
China
 
The legacy of Bo Xilai, the ousted regional Communist Party chief, endures in this southwestern Chinese megacity with its four-lane highways, expanding factories and hundreds of thousands of new apartment units. – Washington Post
 
GOP Rep. Chris Smith (N.J.) on Monday warned that dissident Chen Guangcheng, who arrived in the United States on Saturday, was still in danger from Chinese officials and that his family members back home faced continued harassment. – The Hill
 
More than a million Chinese counterfeit electronic parts are estimated to be in use in U.S. military aircraft, according to a U.S. Senate report released May 21 saying the discovery jeopardizes safety and national security. - AFP
 
Taiwan’s intelligence chief said May 21 that China plans to build two aircraft carriers, in addition to the first in its fleet, a refitted former Soviet carrier currently undergoing sea trials. - AFP
 
China on May 21 criticized a vote by the U.S. House of Representatives last week requiring the United States to sell 66 new fighter jets to Taiwan, describing the measure as interference by Washington. - AFP
 
Analysis: One of China's most conspicuously reform-minded leaders has stepped back into the spotlight after the nation's biggest political convulsion in a generation, positioning himself to gain from the fall of populist politician Bo Xilai. - Reuters
 
Editorial: Beijing is right that it is losing the soft-culture battle with the West over societal values. Chinese are unhappy that the products they buy are often fake, the air they breathe is incredibly polluted, and too many party officials look the other way and are on the take. Blaming the foreign media for reporting these problems won't make them go away, and it will only further undermine China's international image. – Wall Street Journal Asia (subscription required)
 
North Korea
 
China's state media said that North Korea's government was behind the detention of a group of 28 Chinese fishermen released on Sunday, in a rare case of publicly strained diplomatic relations between the neighbors and allies. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Activity is ramping up at North Korea's nuclear test site, a sign that the country is preparing for a test, according to analysis of new satellite images by the defense publication IHS Janes. – CNN’s Security Clearance
           
Southeast Asia
 
One of Myanmar’s biggest businesses — heroin and methamphetamine manufacturing — is thriving in the area along the Thai border known as the Golden Triangle, led by members of well-armed minority ethnic groups – New York Times
 
Myanmar citizens are beginning to invoke their newfound right to hold public protests, a new phase in the country's recent political opening that could substantially ramp up pressure on leaders. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
The former Sri Lankan army chief, Sarath Fonseka, who had spent nearly two years in prison after running a failed campaign for president, was freed on Monday. His release came as the Sri Lankan government has been increasingly criticized for trampling on civil liberties and human rights. – New York Times
 
Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysia’s opposition leader, has been thrust back into the political spotlight after being charged with defying a ban on protests to take part in a demonstration that turned violent in Kuala Lumpur last month. – Financial Times
 
Hundreds rallied for a second day in one of Myanmar's biggest cities on Monday to protest against chronic power outages, in the largest demonstrations since the army crushed a monk-led uprising nearly five years ago. - Reuters
 
Andreas Harsono writes: Instead of praising Indonesia, nations that support tolerance and free speech should publicly demand that Indonesia respect religious freedom, release political prisoners and lift restrictions on media and human rights groups in Papua.  – New York Times

Security

Defense
 
With the House wrapping up work on its version of the Pentagon's budget bill for fiscal 2013, it's now the Senate's turn to take a crack at the multibillion-dollar defense spending package. – DEFCON Hill
 
The U.S. Navy could eventually have a force of eight ships operating from Bahrain if plans to base littoral combat ships (LCS) in the Arabian Gulf continue as envisioned, the service’s No. 2 official said May 21. – Defense News
 
Coping with China and Iran at the same time is stretching the Navy thin, and it will soon have to choose which theater to prioritize, warned Peter Daly, the recently retired admiral who now heads the prestigious US Naval Institute. – AOL Defense
 
While the Littoral Combat Ship is not suited for the front lines of a war with China, it would provide vital protection to US supply lines in such conflict, said Under Secretary of the Navy Robert Work, and against Iran, LCS would be in the battle from "day one," with eight LCSs ultimately operating out of Bahrain. – AOL Defense
 
The Obama administration is opposing House legislation that would loosen restrictions on exports of U.S. satellites that were imposed after two U.S. companies illegally improved China’s strategic missiles through satellite launch deals in the 1990s. – Washington Free Beacon
 
Work is underway to develop technologies that conceal, cloak or otherwise make objects appear to vanish. In many cases, the value of these technologies is in their ability to dupe an enemy into thinking he sees something besides a threat or potential target—background vegetation, for example, or an innocent vehicle – DoD Buzz
 
The War
 
CIA secret interrogation methods -- including detention and harsh questioning of suspected terrorists -- remain off limits to public release, a federal appeals court ruled Monday. – CNN
 
The Supreme Court said Monday that it will tackle a major national security and privacy dispute involving the government's little-known foreign surveillance program. – CNN’s Security Clearance
 
White House counterterror chief John Brennan has seized the lead in guiding the debate on which terror leaders will be targeted for drone attacks or raids, establishing a new procedure to vet both military and CIA targets. – Associated Press

Russia/Europe

Russia
 
President Vladimir V. Putin revealed on Tuesday that his top aides in the Kremlin will be the same political heavyweights who have accompanied him for more than a decade. – New York Times
 
President Vladimir V. Putin replaced all but a handful of Russia’s cabinet of ministers on Monday, in a long-awaited step that nonetheless held out little chance that the new government would push through major political or economic change. – New York Times
 
Having proved himself with his response to political protests that erupted here in December, Moscow’s police chief, Vladimir Kolokoltsev, was named minister of the interior in the new Russian cabinet announced Monday. – Washington Post
 
The founder of a Kremlin youth group notorious for harassing Western diplomats and opposition figures announced Monday he is forming a "Party of Power" to shore up support for President Vladimir Putin, whose own political party dominates parliament but is deeply unpopular. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
RFE/RL Moscow correspondent Tom Balmforth takes a closer look at the roster of ministers. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
 
Anders Aslund writes: In short, this is a highly competent, technocratic council of ministers seemingly chosen by Medvedev rather than Putin. If it is only allowed to do so, this government could carry out the social and economic reforms that Russia so badly needs. This cabinet suggests a much greater and more positive political change than one could have hoped for. – Foreign Policy
 
Ukraine
 
A court in Ukraine on Monday adjourned a trial of jailed former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko on a new charge of tax evasion until June 25, when the European soccer championship will be under way in the country, for medical reasons. - Reuters
 
Serbia
 
Within moments of his victory in elections on Sunday against Boris Tadic, a pro-Western reformist, Mr. Nikolic, a former ally of the Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic, exclaimed that “Serbia would not stray from its E.U. path.” – New York Times
 
NATO
 
Speaking at the NATO Summit here May 21, British Prime Minister David Cameron argued for an ambitious future role for NATO, but said that would require the alliance to develop a new mindset for doing business. – Defense News
 
Leaders from 28 European and North American nations on Sunday signed off on a high-profile review of NATO’s overall deterrence posture that maintains nuclear weapons as a key means of deterrence against enemy threats – Global Security Newswire
 
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has said that NATO should enlarge at the alliance's next summit. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
 
Josh Rogin reports: This weekend's NATO summit in Chicago is the first in decades to make little to no progress on the enlargement of the organization, leaving several countries to wait another two years to move toward membership in the world's premier military alliance. – The Cable

Americas

United States of America
 
Uncle Sam certainly talks a lot, just not in enough languages. A Senate panel examined the language deficit during a hearing Monday on “A National Security Crisis: Foreign Language Capabilities in the Federal Government.” – Washington Post
 
Caribbean
 
Ruling party candidate Danilo Medina claimed victory on Monday in the Dominican Republic's hotly disputed presidential election, avenging his defeat 12 years ago by opposition candidate Hipolito Mejia. - Reuters
 
Haitian authorities on Sunday announced the arrest of 59 uniformed former soldiers and several alleged supporters who staged a series of protests on Friday and Saturday calling for the return of the nation's disbanded army. - Reuters
 

Africa

West Africa
 
The interim president of Mali was set upon by angry protesters who stormed the presidential palace on Monday, grabbed him by the collar and beat him on the head into unconsciousness, officials said. – New York Times
 
The 15-state ECOWAS West African bloc warned on Tuesday it would punish those responsible for orchestrating violence after hundreds of protesters stormed Mali's presidential palace and beat up interim leader Dioncounda Traore. - Reuters
 
Congress is stepping up pressure on the Obama administration to formally designate the Nigerian militant group Boko Haram, which has alleged al Qaeda links, as a "foreign terrorist organization." - Reuters
 
A man armed with grenades and several rounds of ammunition was stopped as he tried to enter a government building in the capital Abuja where two ministers were giving a news conference on Monday, a government security officer said. - Reuters
 
Tanzania
 
Tanzania’s president is waging a war on hunger - and while he’s at it, he wants to modernize his East African nation’s agricultural sector to lift millions of his countrymen out of poverty. – Washington Times
 
Congo
 
Twenty five mutineers loyal to a renegade general have been killed in clashes with the army in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, the government said on Monday. - Reuters
 
South Africa
 
President Jacob Zuma is seeking to block a local art gallery from displaying a painting that depicts him in a state of overexposure, adding fuel to a debate over whether South Africa's ruling party is trying to curb political freedoms. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Obama Administration

Jeffrey Feltman, the top U.S. diplomat for the Middle East, is expected to leave the Obama administration to take a senior post at the United Nations, sources familiar with the matter said on Monday. - Reuters
 
Will Inboden writes: Obama campaigned claiming he would improve America's global image, but his treatment of allies has undermined our nation's credibility. In a way, Obama's international reputation seems to mirror his domestic reputation. At both home and abroad, personal affection for him far exceeds approval for his policies. He has been successful at cultivating his personal image in the world, but in the process America's standing has been diminished. – Shadow Government