FPI Overnight Brief: July 30, 2009

Afghanistan

The New York Times reports that “Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero said Wednesday that Spain was willing to increase its troops on long-term assignment in Afghanistan, in what appeared to be a gesture of support to the Obama administration. Spain’s Socialist government has long resisted calls from the United States and other NATO allies to increase its Afghan force. Mr. Zapatero said the move could be achieved by prolonging a temporary deployment of forces that had been sent to help with security in Afghanistan ahead of the Aug. 20 presidential election.”

The London Telegraph reports that “Taliban leaders have issued a ‘Code of Conduct’ booklet laying out detailed rules on how to be a good holy warrior. The 13-chapter guide tells militants to avoid unnecessary suicide bombings and civilian casualties while waging war against the oppressors. The booklet issued by Taliban supreme leader Mullah Omar was seized by Nato forces in raids in Afghanistan earlier this summer. It reveals concern about how its attacks are regarded by the civilian population, including minority groups, and its need to be seen as a disciplined force motivated by Islamic principle rather than personal greed or malice.”

The AP reports that “The two top U.S. officials in Afghanistan have repeatedly visited Pakistan in recent weeks to ensure that the Pakistani army is prepared for any Taliban insurgents retreating from a new coalition military offensive, the Obama administration special envoy to the region said Wednesday. Richard Holbrooke, the administration's chief coordinator for Afghanistan and Pakistan, said that Karl Eikenberry, the U.S. ambassador in Kabul, and his military counterpart, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, have consulted ‘fairly regularly’ with Pakistani officials. Their purpose was to keep in touch with Pakistan's government and army so that ‘this time around, as the (NATO) offensive picks up steam, the Pakistanis are ready for it, so the Pakistanis know where the military operations are happening — and they can prepare for any spillover effects,’ Holbrooke said at a State Department news conference.”

The AP reports that “Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Wednesday praised Britain's call to reconcile with moderate Taliban guerrillas. In a joint appearance with British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, Clinton said the allies agreed about how to handle the Taliban. On Monday, Miliband said in a speech at NATO headquarters that while hard-line fundamentalist commanders committed to a global jihad must be pursued relentlessly, ordinary rank-and-file Taliban should be given the opportunity reconcile with the Afghan government. The speech raised questions about whether Britain was advocating a more conciliatory approach with the Taliban.”

Iraq

CNN reports that “A ‘modest acceleration’ of U.S. troop withdrawal plans in Iraq could occur, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Wednesday. Gates said the original plan was to go from 14 to 12 brigade combat teams by January 1, but he said it is possible that maybe one more of the teams could be withdrawn. There are generally 2,500 to 3,000 troops in a brigade combat team. He said such a move depends on how the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, Gen. Raymond Odierno, assesses the environment for such a move. And it could possibly come before Iraq's parliamentary elections on January 16.”

The New York Times reports that “The Iraqi Army’s 42nd Brigade has arrested seven Awakening leaders in Adhamiya, a neighborhood in north Baghdad. The second in command, Riyadh Abdul Hadi, was arrested on July 21, along with four of his followers, and last Sunday, the group’s security chief, Ghassan Muttar, and a local neighborhood leader, Abdul Khadir, were also arrested, three Awakening leaders in Adhamiya said. The Iraqi government, which has been deeply suspicious of the Awakening movement for arming former insurgents, made no announcement of the Adhamiya arrests. They may well be another telltale sign of the dwindling influence the United States has over the Iraqi government now that American troops no longer dominate Baghdad.”

Indonesia

The Wall Street Journal reports that “The two Jakarta hotels hit by suicide bombers on July 17 reopened Wednesday amid tightened security as new evidence indicates terrorists avoided capture for years by relying on the shelter of sympathetic Islamists. The twin bombings at the JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels killed six foreigners, an Indonesian waiter and the two suicide bombers. Police on Wednesday said they are taking seriously an online statement claiming responsibility for the bombings and bearing the name of the man suspected of planning the attack.… the militants who have eluded capture are still able to rely on numerous havens -- often Islamic schools -- while they gather the fresh recruits and small amounts of money needed to mount more attacks on Indonesian soil… Sidney Jones, an expert on Southeast Asian terrorist networks at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, a peace-advocacy body, says the school heads -- who want to see the establishment of an Islamic state and are highly distrustful of Indonesia's secular government and police -- often allow known terrorists to stay with them as long as they promise not to engage in acts of violence while there.”

Bloomberg reports that “U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Jim Steinberg said terrorists will continue to target Western interests in Indonesia following this month's bombings in Jakarta, the Sydney Morning Herald reported.”

Honduras

The New York Times reports that “The head of Honduras’s de facto government, Roberto Micheletti, has expressed support for a compromise that would allow the ousted president of his country to return to power, according to officials in the de facto government and diplomats from the region. But the nation is so polarized over the possible return that Mr. Micheletti is reaching out to other regional leaders for help in building support for such a deal, especially among the country’s elite, the officials said.”

The Wall Street Journal editorializes that “The State Department announced Tuesday that it revoked the diplomatic visas of four Honduran officials because the U.S. doesn’t recognize the interim government of Roberto Micheletti. Hondurans can be forgiven if they recall the bitter Vietnam-era joke that while it can be dangerous to be America’s enemy, it can be fatal to be its friend. The U.S. didn’t release the names of the banished, but the Honduran daily El Heraldo said they included the Supreme Court judge who signed the arrest warrant of former president Manuel Zelaya, as well as the president of the National Congress. Honduras is now in the fifth week of a constitutional crisis that was provoked when then-president Zelaya violated the Honduran constitution. He was warned by the attorney general but he persisted and, with support from Hondurans of all political parties, he was arrested and deported on June 28.”

Africa

AFP reports that “Four Dutch citizens have been arrested in Kenya for 'possible involvement in terrorism', the prosecution service in the Netherlands said on Wednesday. ‘According to Kenyan authorities, the four were arrested on the border of Kenya and Somalia,’ last Friday, it said in a statement. They are alleged to have been on their way to a jihadist training camp. ‘An investigation has been launched by national police (in the Netherlands) into their possible involvement in terrorism.’ An investigation has been launched by Dutch police into the activities of the four, who are expected to be sent back home, according to prosecution spokeswoman Marieke van der Molen.”

Pakistan

The New York Times reports that “Pakistan’s Air Force is improving its ability to pinpoint and attack militant targets with precision weapons, adding a new dimension to the country’s fight against violent extremism, according to Pakistani military officials and independent analysts. The Pakistani military has moved away from the scorched-earth artillery and air tactics used last year against insurgents in the Bajaur tribal agency. In recent months, the air force has shifted from using Google Earth to sophisticated images from spy planes and other surveillance aircraft, and has increased its use of laser-guided bombs.”

Ideas

The Wall Street Journal reports that “The Obama administration is supporting moves to implement a U.N. doctrine calling for collective military action to halt genocide. The next step is to see if the countries in favor of implementing the policy will act when a new genocide is brewing if all other diplomatic actions fail. The doctrine is political, not legal: Although these countries have expressed the political will to act, they aren't legally bound to… The U.S. joined a majority of U.N. countries, including Russia and China, in supporting implementation of the policy, called the Responsibility to Protect doctrine. It may be invoked in only four cases: genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, or crimes against humanity. Climate change, disease or natural disasters are excluded as causes for intervention.”

Iran

The New York Times reports that “The Iranian authorities sent a mixed message of clemency and firmness on Wednesday, saying that more detainees arrested in the post-election crackdown would soon be freed, but also that 20 protesters charged with serious crimes would be put on trial, starting this weekend. There were also new arrests, including those of two prominent reformists, Saeed Shariati and Shayesteh Amiri, opposition Web sites reported.”

Taiwan

AFP reports that “Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou on Wednesday called for a trade pact with China but said he was not likely to meet his Chinese counterpart soon despite warming ties between the former bitter rivals. In an interview with the Taipei-based United Evening News, Ma said the two sides had been building mutual trust since he came to power last year. ‘However, the icy ties are just beginning to thaw and the construction of a bridge (for dialogue) just starting,’ Ma said.”

North Korea

The BBC reports that “A South Korean fishing boat has been towed away by a North Korean patrol boat off the peninsula's east coast, South Korean officials say. The military says the ship may have strayed north of the maritime border due to a navigation system error. The four-man crew had been fishing for squid at the time. The incident comes as relations between the rival North and South states are tense over the North's nuclear and missile programs. An official, who spoke on customary condition of anonymity, told the Associated Press that South Korea had already asked the North to release the boat.”

Burma

The AP reports that Burma’s “detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi was bracing for the worst ahead of Friday's verdict in her high-profile trial, gathering medicine and books to prepare for a feared prison term, her lawyer said. The frail 64-year-old Nobel Peace Prize winner was "physically and mentally fine, and very alert," Nyan Win, one of her lawyers, said Thursday. ‘She is getting ready for any result,’ he said. ‘She is preparing for the worst.’ Suu Kyi is charged with violating the terms of her long house arrest when an American intruder swam across a lake and spent two nights at her home in early May. She faces a minimum of three years and maximum of five years in prison.”

Americas

AFP reports that “Cuba's financial and economic condition is ‘serious,’ the official Communist Party newspaper Granma said Wednesday, publicly acknowledging the dire straits Cubans face. Cubans earn an average of $17 a month, energy is rationed and Cubans with no access to hard currency face tough daily battles to make ends meet. The government is urging Cubans to boost domestic food production. First Deputy Economic Minister Adel Izquierdo ‘supported with unobjectionable facts and figures the serious nature of the economic and financial situation in the country due to the effects of the global crisis,’ the newspaper said, without elaborating.”

Balkans

The Washington Post reports that “Europe's most-wanted war crimes suspect has been on the run longer than Osama bin Laden. But after more than a decade of looking the other way, Serbian authorities say they are finally closing in on Gen. Ratko Mladic, the Bosnian Serb commander charged with genocide and other crimes in the Balkan wars of the 1990s.”

Russia

Dow Jones reports that “Vietnam and Russia have signed a memorandum of intent for cooperation in Vietnam's national nuclear energy development program, the state-run Vietnam Electricity Group, or EVN, said Thursday. Under the pact signed earlier this week in Hanoi between Vietnam Nuclear Energy Institute and the Russian Federal Agency for Atomic Energy, the two sides will cooperate in building a legal framework and training human resources for the domestic nuclear energy industry, EVN said in a statement. ‘This is another step Russia has made in an effort to join the project to build Vietnam's first nuclear power plant,’ it added.”

The AP reports that “A high-ranking Kremlin aide said Wednesday that Russia aims to establish a second military base in Kyrgyzstan, where the United State also has an important air base, Russian news agencies reported. The comments by Sergei Prikhodko underlined how Kyrgyzstan, although small, poor and little-known until recently, has become important geopolitically. The base would be used by a rapid-reaction force being formed by the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization, Prikhodko said.”

China

The New York Times reports that “In the weeks since ethnic bloodletting claimed nearly 200 lives in the northwest Chinese region of Xinjiang, the government has been waging a global propaganda war against Rebiya Kadeer, the exiled Uighur leader it accuses of instigating the violence. As a result, Ms. Kadeer, who spent more than four years in a Chinese prison and now lives in the United States, has emerged as the international face of the Uighur cause. On Wednesday, she ratcheted up the war of words during a visit to Japan, where she claimed that ‘nearly 10,000’ Uighurs had disappeared ‘overnight’ in Urumqi, the Xinjiang capital. ‘Where did they go?’ she asked during a news conference, according to The Associated Press. ‘Were they all killed or sent somewhere? The Chinese government should disclose what happened to them…’ But her comments infuriated China, which summoned Japan’s ambassador in Beijing to express ‘strong dissatisfaction’ with the decision to grant her a visa. China’s Foreign Ministry demanded that Japan ‘take effective action to stop her anti-China, splittist activities.’ The Japanese government declined to intervene, saying that Ms. Kadeer was visiting as a private citizen.”

Reuters reports that “China's leaders told U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon that Beijing wants to reach a new agreement on combating climate change in Copenhagen in December, Ban said on Wednesday. ‘I was pleased that President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao assured me that China wants to seal a deal in Copenhagen in December and that China will play an active and constructive role in the negotiations,’ Ban told a monthly news conference. The U.N. chief returned on Tuesday from official visits to China and Mongolia at which climate change topped the agenda. China recently passed the United States as the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and together the two countries account for 42 percent of the world's emissions.”