FPI Overnight Brief: July 29, 2009
Ideas
Der Spiegel reports that “A German man eager to win an informal cherry stone spitting contest made the mistake of taking an excessively long run-up and inadvertently hurled himself off his balcony, police said. ‘He appears to have developed too much momentum,’ police in the western town of Rodgau said in a statement. ‘He lost his balance on the balcony railing and plunged down.’”
Africa
Al Jazeera reports that “Nigerian troops are hunting for the remnants of Boko Haram, an Islamist group that went on a killing spree in the country's north. The continuing offensive on Wednesday came after the army shelled a mosque and the home of Mohammed Yusuf, said to be the group's leader, in Maiduguri, the capital of northern Borno state. ‘We are not sure whether he has been killed in the shelling or has managed to escape,’ a police officer said of Yusuf.”
Iran
The Washington Post reports that “In an apparent response Tuesday to allegations of abuses, Iran freed 140 opposition activists detained during election protests this summer and the country's supreme leader ordered a prison closed because of substandard conditions. The developments followed local news reports that four activists have died in custody in recent days. However, the Interior Ministry turned down a request by opposition leaders for permission to hold an event commemorating protesters killed in the crackdown after the disputed June 12 presidential election. The release of the 140 activists from Evin prison, one of Tehran's two main detention facilities, came after a visit by a special parliamentary committee, the semiofficial Fars News Agency reported. Those freed were not named, but the prominent women's rights activist Shadi Sadr was reported to have been among them, released on bail. Sadr was arrested July 17. The city's other main prison, Kahrizak, was closed after an order Monday by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to the semiofficial Mehr News Agency. It is unclear whether the detainees there have been transferred or freed.”
The Wall Street Journal reports that “Reports from Tehran families in recent days of receiving the bodies of relatives arrested at opposition rallies who later died from violent treatment in prison have fueled anger at the government. Among the dead is Mohsen Rouhalamini, the son of a prominent conservative and adviser to presidential candidate Mohsen Rezai. His family said he died of cardiac arrest and bleeding in his lungs, and that his face had been smashed. News of his death in prison last week spurred fury across political lines, prompting even some progovernment newspapers and lawmakers to charge the regime with excessive use of force and violence in crushing its opposition. Opposition leaders warned of a backlash and urged the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to reverse its actions.”
Afghanistan
Reuters reports that “The U.S. military in Afghanistan stopped releasing the number of insurgents it kills some time ago because it is often inaccurate or incomplete and distracts from the purpose of the overall mission, the military has said. Foreign forces have shifted their focus in Afghanistan away from conventional warfare tactics to a counterinsurgency strategy since the arrival in June of General Stanley McChrystal, the commander of the 101,000 U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan. McChrystal took over from sacked General David McKiernan and arrived in mid-June saying that the effectiveness of their mission would not be measured by the number of insurgents killed but rather by ‘the number of Afghans shielded from violence.’”
Bing West writes in the Wall Street Journal that “More coalition soldiers have died in July than in any previous month in the nine-year war in Afghanistan. Last week, the soldier who slept on the cot next to me was killed. A rocket-propelled grenade fired from a snow-capped mountain in remote Nuristan Province killed Staff Sgt. Eric Lindstrom, a father of twin baby girls and the best squad leader in the platoon. Strangely, our military leaders rarely talk about the battles here. They urge shooting less and drinking more cups of tea with village elders. This is the new face of war—counterinsurgency defined as nation-building, an idealistic blend of development aid and John Locke philosophy. Our generals say that the war is ‘80% non-kinetic.’”
The Times of London reports that “Taleban insurgents fighting German forces in northern Afghanistan have often lived to fight another day thanks to trilingual warnings that have to be shouted out before the men from the Bundeswehr can squeeze their triggers. The seven-page pocket guide to combat tucked into the breast pocket of every German soldier offers such instructions as: ‘Before opening fire you are expected to declare loudly, in English, ‘United Nations — stop, or I will fire,’ followed by a version in Pashtu — Melgaero Mellatuna- Dreesch, ka ne se dasee kawum!’ The alert must also be issued in Dari, and the booklet, devised by a committee in some faraway ministerial office, adds: ‘If the situation allows, the warning should be repeated.’ The joke going round Nato mess tents poses the question: ‘How can you identify a German soldier? He is the corpse clutching a pocket guide.’ So nothing better reflects that the Germans are now in a real war for the first time since 1945 than the release of new rules of engagement this week, giving their forces more freedom to shoot back and shout warnings later.”
CNN reports that “The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan is expected to ask the Obama administration for additional troops and equipment, according to a senior U.S. military official familiar with Gen. Stanley McChrystal's thinking. The request will be for troops and equipment for conducting intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, as well as more assets to deal with roadside bombs and explosives, said the official, who declined to be identified because McChrystal's request has not been formally transmitted to the Pentagon. The request could be made in coming weeks after McChrystal completes a "troop-to-task review" to calculate whether there are enough U.S. troops in Afghanistan -- and the right mix of troops -- to carry out the military's war plan at an acceptable level of risk, the official said.”
The Washington Times reports that “With less than a month to go before Afghan elections, it's unclear whether a security plan that relies heavily on Afghan forces will be sufficient to safeguard voters at the country's 7,000 polling stations. The security plan, recently released by Afghanistan's International Elections Commission, calls for Afghans to take the lead on Aug. 20, election day. Despite escalating violence in the southern and eastern parts of the country, U.S. and international forces are supposed to form only an outer perimeter around polling stations and to act only if called upon by Afghan forces. Afghanistan's national police and army are to be in charge, but it's unclear whether enough trained forces will be available to secure polling locations.”
Defense
The AP reports that “The White House threatened Tuesday to veto a $636 billion spending bill for the Pentagon, citing funding for F-22 fighters and a much-criticized replacement presidential helicopter. President Barack Obama wants to terminate both programs. The measure is slated to come to the House floor Wednesday. The White House also objected to plans by lawmakers to continue to fund an alternative engine for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, but didn't seem to explicitly threaten a veto over the $560 million provision.”
China
Bloomberg reports that “Secretary of State Hillary Clinton used two days of strategic talks in Washington to build personal ties with her Chinese counterparts and press for collaboration on reining in the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea. China and the U.S. agreed that 'further cooperation and action' is needed to get North Korea back to multinational talks to persuade the regime to dismantle its nuclear-weapons program and to pressure Iran to stop its enrichment of uranium, Clinton said late yesterday at the close of the discussions. The U.S. and Chinese governments also pledged to coordinate policies on issues including nuclear proliferation, climate change, and terrorism.”
Iraq
The New York Times reports that “Commanders of the Multi-National Force-Iraq, as the American-led coalition is formally called, have a looming nomenclature problem. Two days from now, there will no longer be any other nations with troops in Iraq — no ‘multi’ in the Multi-National Force. As Iraqi forces have increasingly taken the lead, the United States is the last of the ‘coalition of the willing’ that the Bush administration first brought together in 2003. That is partly because the Iraqi Parliament left suddenly for summer recess without voting to extend an agreement for the British military to keep a residual training force of 100 soldiers in Iraq. As a result, those troops must withdraw to Kuwait by Friday, according to a British diplomat, who declined to be identified in keeping with his government’s practice. As for the other two small remnants of the coalition, the Romanians and Australians, the Australians will be gone by July 31, too, and the Romanians left last Thursday, according to the Romanian chargé d’affaires, Cristian Voicu.”
The Wall Street Journal reports that “Iraqi forces stormed a camp of more than 3,000 members of an Iranian dissident group that until recently had been protected by the U.S. military, in the biggest unilateral operation since American forces withdrew from Iraq's cities a month ago. Iran has long demanded that Iraq take action against the group, the Mujahedin e-Khalq, or MEK, but the U.S. had stood in its way. The willingness to go ahead with the raid appears to point to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's balancing act between his two most important allies, as the U.S. gradually pulls out of the country and neighboring Iran seeks to expand its influence.”
Bloomberg reports that “Visiting Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the U.S. is prepared to help Iraq resolve disputes over oil resources and boundaries as American commanders place Arab-Kurdish tensions atop the list of biggest concerns. Gates, on a trip through the region that included stops in Israel and Jordan, yesterday reviewed military progress in Iraq since U.S. forces pulled back from cities and towns on June 30. In addition to Iranian support of insurgents and questions of how to assure Iraq’s capability to defend itself when the U.S. leaves, Gates and his commanders cited lingering ethnic and sectarian tensions.”
Middle East
John Bolton writes in the Wall Street Journal that “Legions of senior American officials have descended on Jerusalem recently, but the most important of them has been Defense Secretary Robert Gates. His central objective was to dissuade Israel from carrying out military strikes against Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities. Under the guise of counseling ‘patience,’ Mr. Gates again conveyed President Barack Obama’s emphatic thumbs down on military force. The public outcome of Mr. Gates’s visit appeared polite but inconclusive. Yet Iran’s progress with nuclear weapons and air defenses means Israel’s military option is declining over time. It will have to make a decision soon, and it will be no surprise if Israel strikes by year’s end. Israel’s choice could determine whether Iran obtains nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future… Striking Iran’s nuclear program will not be precipitous or poorly thought out. Israel’s attack, if it happens, will have followed enormously difficult deliberation over terrible imponderables, and years of patiently waiting on innumerable failed diplomatic efforts. Absent Israeli action, prepare for a nuclear Iran.”
AFP reports that “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday predicted the people of the Gaza Strip will one day overthrow the Islamist group Hamas, which controls the enclave of 1.5 million inhabitants. ‘By making the Palestinians of Gaza wear a veil, the Hamas regime is not doing much to make itself popular,’ Netanyahu said at the National Security Academy's graduation ceremony. ‘If the Palestinians could, they would overthrow Hamas and believe me one day they will,’ Netanyahu was quoted by YNetnews website as saying. He also predicted: ‘Eventually, radical Islam will be defeated by the global information revolution, the freedom to spread ideas and with the help of technology.’”
Pakistan
Bloomberg reports that “Former Pakistan president and army General Pervez Musharraf wasn’t represented in the Supreme Court today after being ordered last week to explain why he imposed emergency rule and dismissed senior judges in 2007. ‘No one represented him because he has not received the summons,’ Muhammad Ali Saif, the former president’s attorney said by telephone from Islamabad today. ‘Until he doesn’t get the court summons, he doesn’t legally need representation. When he gets it, we will defend.’ Pakistan’s army has governed the country for 32 of its 62 years. The case is the first in which a former military ruler has been summoned to account in court for his actions while in power.”
Americas
CNN reports that “Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez froze diplomatic relations with Colombia late Tuesday, citing verbal aggressions from the neighboring South American country. The televised announcement followed declarations from the Colombian government Monday that anti-tank weapons purchased by Venezuela ended up in the hands of the guerrilla Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known as the FARC. In addition, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe said the guerrillas were trying to buy anti-aircraft missiles. Venezuela received a shipment of Russian SA-24 Igla shoulder-fired missiles earlier this year and showed them off at military parade in April.”
Asia
Stephen Yates and Christian Whiton, a Foreign Policy Initiative Policy Advisor, are interviewed by the Diplomat on developments in Northeast Asia: “China, I think, has proven unwilling to do what is necessary on North Korea, and so I think it was a fool’s errand to continue to deal bilaterally with them and then expect that they are going to advance something that they seem to have told us by their actions they’re not interested in. So I think we have to look at a form of tailored containment, which is the policy that the Bush administration actually agreed to before the president changed his mind.”
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