FPI Overnight Brief: July 28, 2009
Iran
The Washington Post reports that “Top Iranian leaders on Monday called for greater protection for opposition demonstrators arrested during this summer's protests after at least three were reported in recent days to have died in custody.”
The Washington Times reports that “Targeting the repressive methods of what one senator called a ‘cruel regime,’ the U.S. Senate has authorized up to $50 million to help Iranians evade their government's attempts to censor the Internet and to pressure foreign corporations not to help Iran clamp down on communication. The Victim of Iranian Censorship, or VOICE, Act, was added to the Senate's defense-authorization bill Thursday evening as a response to mass protests following Iran's disputed June 12 presidential elections and amid concerns that Western companies have sold Iran technology used to monitor dissidents… Sen. Joe Lieberman, an independent Democrat of Connecticut and co-sponsor of the legislation, said the act ‘will help the Iranian people stay one step ahead of their regime, in getting access to information and safely exercising freedom of speech, assembly and expression online.’”
The Wall Street Journal reports that “A simmering dispute between the U.S. and Israel over Iran's nuclear program burst into the open on Monday, as U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, on a visit to Israel, called for continued diplomatic engagement with Tehran, while Israeli officials repeatedly warned of a possible military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran's apparent pursuit of a nuclear weapon is emerging as a major source of tension between the U.S. and Israel, which are already feuding over President Barack Obama 's call for a complete freeze on Israeli settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Several senior U.S. officials are visiting Israel this week to push Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government to halt Israeli settlement activity, a step the Israeli leader has so far refused to take. The Obama administration's Mideast envoy, George Mitchell, is already in the region, while National Security Adviser James Jones and White House Mideast adviser Dennis Ross are slated to arrive in coming days.”
Francis Fukuyama asks in the Wall Street Journal: “So what kind of future should we wish for Iran, in light of the massive demonstrations? My own preference would be for Iran to some day adopt a new, Western-style constitution guaranteeing religious freedom, a secular state, and sovereignty vested firmly in the people, rather than God. But a considerable amount of anecdotal evidence (we don’t have anything better) suggests this is not necessarily the agenda of the protesters. Many of them, including opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, say they want Iran to remain an Islamic Republic. They look at the radical regime change that occurred in next door Iraq and don’t want that for themselves. What they seem to wish for is that the democratic features of the constitution be better respected, and that the executive authorities, including the Guardian Council, and the military and paramilitary organizations, stop manipulating elections and respect the law. Iran could evolve towards a genuine rule-of-law democracy within the broad parameters of the 1979 constitution. It would be necessary to abolish Article 110, which gives the Guardian Council control over the armed forces and the media, and to shift its function to something more like a supreme court that could pass judgment on the consistency of legislation with Shariah. In time, the Council might be subject to some form of democratic control, like the U.S. Supreme Court, even if its members needed religious credentials.”
Al Jazeera reports that “Iran's industry minister has been found guilty of fraud, dealing a fresh blow to his close ally Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the president. Ali Akbar Mehrabian was convicted by an Iranian court over claims by a researcher that he had stolen his idea for an ‘earthquake saferoom' - a design for a fortified room in homes in case of disaster, local media reported on Monday. An appeals court upheld that the design belonged to researcher Farzan Salimi and convicted Mehrabian of fraud but did not prescribe any punishment, according to Iranian newspapers. The conviction is the latest embarrassment to Ahmadinejad, who has already been pressed to drop his choice of vice-president, had his intelligence minister fired on Sunday and had his culture minister quit on him on the same day.”
The AP reports that “Israel hardened its insistence Monday that it would do anything it felt necessary to stop Iran from getting a nuclear bomb, just the ultimatum the United States hoped not to hear as it tried to nudge Iran to the bargaining table. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates reassured Israel that the new Obama administration was not naive about Iran's intentions, and that Washington would press for new, tougher sanctions against the Iranians if they balk. He didn't say what those might include. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak used a brief news conference with Gates to insist three times that Israel would not rule out any response — an implied warning that it would consider a pre-emptive strike to thwart Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.”
Mexico
The Washington Post reports that “President Felipe Calderón is under growing pressure to overhaul a U.S.-backed anti-narcotics strategy that many political leaders and analysts said is failing amid spectacular drug cartel assaults against the government. There are now sustained calls in Mexico for a change in tactics, even from allies within Calderón's political party, who say the deployment of 45,000 soldiers to fight the cartels is a flawed plan that relies too heavily on the blunt force of the military to stem soaring violence and lawlessness.”
Japan
The Wall Street Journal reports that “The opposition Democratic Party of Japan, which is favored to win general elections next month and form a government, unveiled Monday a manifesto promising to stimulate consumer spending and shift policy-making power to lawmakers from bureaucrats. The DPJ's release of its campaign pledges comes as analysts watch to see how the party may govern if it wins key lower-house polls planned for Aug. 30… While many of the promises -- such as cash aid for families with children, free public high-school education and the abolishment of highway tolls -- may be popular with voters, their potential to heal the recession-stricken economy is uncertain.”
Indonesia
The AP reports that “Police say two employees of U.S. company Freeport are among a group of men facing criminal charges for a spate of deadly shootings at its gold mine in Papua, Indonesia. National police spokesman Col. Ketut Untung Yoga Ana says Monday the men are among seven suspects accused of premeditated murder and illegal weapons possession. Their positions with the company are unknown and Freeport declined to comment.”
The Wall Street Journal reports that “As Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono scrambles to combat terrorism after the latest Jakarta hotel bombings, he is also facing a big challenge from opponents who want to cripple his campaign to root out corruption. Mr. Yudhoyono was re-elected this month in large part because voters approved of his past success in containing two of Indonesia's biggest problems, terrorism and corruption. But the suicide attack that killed nine people, including two bombers, at the JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels on July 17 dented some of Mr. Yudhoyono's credibility on the terrorism front, and now critics of his anticorruption effort are trying to slow it down. At stake are the futures of Indonesia's Anti-Corruption Commission, a powerful independent body set up in 2003 to investigate and prosecute graft cases outside the normal slow-moving court system, and its sister body, the Corrupt Crimes Court.”
North Korea
Chosun Ilbo reports that “North Korea's ambassador to the UN on Friday said North Korea is interested in resuming bilateral talks with the U.S. Sin Son-ho told reporters his government was not opposed to dialogue, nor was it opposed to any ‘negotiations on issues of common concern.’ Sin said the North is not to blame for not negotiating with the U.S. and is ready for dialogue any time, he added. But he made it clear the regime wants to exclude South Korea and other countries from talks it is hoping to have with the U.S., saying that there is no chance of the North returning to the six-party talks. He said the six-party talks ‘are gone forever. We will never participate in the six-party talks, never again.’”
Ideas
Deutsche Welle reports that “Ulla Schmidt, Germany's heath minister, has had her official limousine stolen in Spain. Leading opposition politicians are now asking why she had the car with her on vacation in the first place. It began as a small news item: German health minister's limousine stolen in Alicante, Spain. But then people started asking questions like: Why does a German health minister need an armored limousine while on vacation in Spain? How did the limousine get there in the first place… The news comes just two months before a general election. This is not good news for Schmidt's Social Democratic Party (SPD), which is challenging Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the September 27 election. Schmidt said she paid her own way to fly to Alicante, but had her chauffeur drive the Mercedes S-class limo 2,387 kilometers from Berlin to Spain.”
Daniel Ikenson and Scott Lincicome write in the Los Angeles Times that “President Obama is neither a committed free-trader nor a hard-core protectionist. But his continuing failure to commit to a pro-trade agenda amounts to de facto protectionism and subverts his economic and foreign policy objectives. Reacting recently to a provision in the climate change bill that would impose trade penalties against nations that do not limit carbon emissions enough, the president said, ‘At a time when the economy worldwide is still deep in recession and we've seen a significant drop in global trade, I think we have to be very careful about sending any protectionist signals.’ In that mild rebuke of protectionism lingers the essence of the administration's nascent trade policy: conditional, ambiguous and not particularly reassuring."
Syria
The Wall Street Journal reports that “The Obama administration has told Syria that it will work to ease U.S. sanctions against Damascus, as Washington intensifies its pursuit of détente with a longtime Middle East rival. The U.S. decision targets spare aircraft parts, information-technology products and telecommunications equipment, sales of which have been restricted by U.S. sanctions on Syria enacted in 2004. The step was conveyed Sunday by Washington's special Mideast envoy, George Mitchell, to Syrian President Bashar Assad during an hour-long meeting in Damascus. The move represents the latest action in a rapidly accelerating rapprochement between Washington and Damascus initiated after President Barack Obama took office this year, said officials from both countries.”
Russia
The Wall Street Journal editorializes that “Ukraine and Georgia sure made an impression on Joe Biden. On his trip home late last week from those democracies, the Vice President played Lear’s jester by speaking the truth about their erstwhile master, Russia. Before the Obama Administration wipes away this supposed gaffe, we think he deserves support. In an interview with the Journal Saturday, Mr. Biden pointed out that the U.S. and Russia aren’t strategic equals. ‘I think we vastly underestimate the hand that we hold,’ he said, noting that Russia’s economy and population are ‘withering.’ ‘They’re in a situation where the world is changing before them and they’re clinging to something in the past that is not sustainable.’ As for the arsenal Russia inherited from the U.S.S.R., Mr. Biden said, ‘They can’t sustain it.’”
Afghanistan
Bloomberg reports that “New Zealand Prime Minister John Key said he is ‘sympathetic’ to calls for his country to deploy special forces in Afghanistan to help fight Taliban militants. The government will receive advice on whether to send troops and make a decision by mid-August, Key told reporters in Wellington today. The nation’s Special Air Service troops have been deployed to Afghanistan three times, most recently in 2006, and about 140 personnel are currently doing reconstruction work in central Bamyan province…‘I am somewhat sympathetic to the position on the basis that we are seeing New Zealanders all around the world in harm’s way,’ he said. ‘If the world doesn’t get on top of the position in Afghanistan, it becomes an even bigger hotbed for global terrorism.’”
AFP reports that “Defence Minister Ignazio La Russa insisted that Italy would not withdraw from Afghanistan after a key ally of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi called for a troop pullout, in an interview published Monday. Umberto Bossi, the reform minister and head of the anti-immigrant Northern League, said at the weekend that he "would bring them all home" after three Italian soldiers were slightly wounded in Afghanistan.”
Pakistan
The Washington Post reports that “Bombings and kidnappings by the Taliban and criminal gangs are strangling the economic life of this metropolis adjacent to the tribal territory along the Afghan border. Businessmen have fled south to safer provinces or left the country, slashed production, laid off employees, and closed down offices. Government statistics show that large-scale manufacturing has contracted 7.6 percent across Pakistan in the past year, while a survey by the Industrialists Association of Peshawar found a 37 percent plunge in the industrial sector here. Business associations estimate that the number of industrial jobs, the main economic lifeline, has already fallen from more than 100,000 to about 25,000. Factories that ran round-the-clock now scrape by with a single shift. The Obama administration has pledged to bring economic relief to these border regions dominated by Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters. In March, the president called on Congress to pass a bill that would create what are known as ‘reconstruction opportunity zones’ to ‘develop the economy and bring hope to places plagued with violence.’ That bill passed the House last month. It is intended to allow businesses in areas such as North-West Frontier Province, the tribal areas and a 100-mile border swath of Baluchistan in southern Pakistan to export textiles and apparel to the United States duty-free. But Pakistani businessmen said limits on what textiles are covered -- sought by U.S. business lobbyists -- render the bill, and its pending Senate version, largely worthless.”
Bloomberg reports that “Pakistan is aiming to open a ‘new chapter’ in its relations with India, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said, describing a recent meeting with his Indian counterpart as a ‘major breakthrough.’ Gilani said in Islamabad yesterday he held ‘a detailed discussion’ on terrorism with Manmohan Singh in Egypt earlier this month and told the Indian leader of progress made in the investigation of the Mumbai attacks, state media reported.”
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