FPI Overnight Brief: September 1, 2010

Iraq

The U.S. mission in Iraq is set to undergo a major rebranding Wednesday, when Vice President Joe Biden presides over a change-of-command ceremony in Baghdad marking the end of Operation Iraqi Freedom, the campaign that began in March 2003, and the beginning of a military assistance mission called Operation New Dawn. – Wall Street Journal

Read President Obama’s and House Minority Leader Boehner’s remarks from yesterday regarding the end of combat operations in Iraq.

With the U.S. officially having ended combat operations in Iraq Tuesday, U.S. spy officials see the country's inability to form a government as the greatest security threat it faces. Other major security concerns include continued Iranian efforts to stoke militant attacks in Iraq and al Qaeda's severely degraded, but not extinguished, affiliate in Iraq, according to a senior intelligence official. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Bloodshed has already increased as Iraq nears the end of its sixth month without a government since national parliamentary elections. Many Iraqis also say they worry that another country could fill the vacuum left behind by the United States and that the security gains of the past two years could erode – Washington Post

The Iraq that American officials portray today — safer, more peaceful, with more of the trappings of a state — relies on 2006 as a baseline, when the country was on the verge of a nihilistic descent into carnage. For many here, though, the starting point is the statement President George W. Bush made on March 10, 2003, 10 days before the invasion, when he promised that “the life of the Iraqi citizen is going to dramatically improve.” – New York Times

President George W. Bush deserves some credit for the transition away from a combat mission in Iraq, Rep. Brian Baird (D-Wash.) said Tuesday – The Hill

As Washington seeks today to open a new chapter in its involvement in Iraq, insurgents have dismissed announcements of a “new dawn” and say they will fight on until the last American soldier has left the country. – The National

[Recent] futile shuttle diplomacy has proved two things to a bemused group of western diplomats in Baghdad's Green Zone: firstly that the US now has nothing like the influence it had in Iraq while 170,000 American troops were still here. And secondly, Iran does not pull as many strings in Iraq as many had thought. - Guardian

AEI and ISW recently held conference calls on the withdrawal from Iraq.

Saying it is "time to turn the page" on one of the most divisive chapters in American history, President Obama declared the U.S. war in Iraq over Tuesday night, telling the nation that he was fulfilling his campaign pledge to stop a war he had opposed from the start – Washington Post

FPI Director William Kristol writes: President Obama opposed the war in Iraq. He still thinks it was a mistake. It's therefore unrealistic for supporters of the war to expect the president to give the speech John McCain would have given, or to expect President Obama to put the war in the context we would put it in. He simply doesn't believe the war in Iraq was a necessary part of a broader effort to fight terror, to change the Middle East, etc. Given that (erroneous) view of his, I thought his speech was on the whole commendable, and even at times impressive. – Weekly Standard Blog

FPI Executive Director Jamie Fly writes: It is important for President Obama to make clear that he is willing to make the necessary commitments to achieve [success in Iraq and Afghanistan]. More statements like those from the secretary of defense and the president are in order in the coming months if they are to reassure the American people, our allies, and our enemies that we are serious about our commitment to victory. – The Corner

Israel

President Obama plunges into Middle East peacemaking on Wednesday with a two-day summit he hopes will be the first step in brokering an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement within a year. – Washington Post

Hamas militants claimed responsibility for the killing of four Jewish settlers in the West Bank Tuesday, an attack that seemed aimed at torpedoing a new round of peace talks in Washington this week between Israel and the Palestinians. – Wall Street Journal

The Palestinian president, Mahmud Abbas, and the Israeli defence minister, Ehud Barak, have met secretly in Amman ahead of Middle East peace talks that start in Washington this week, Israeli media reported today. – The National

Israel's defense minister said on Wednesday the Jewish state would be willing to hand over parts of Jerusalem in peace talks with the Palestinians to be launched by President Barack Obama. - Reuters

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will tell U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that a deadly West Bank attack shows there should be "no compromise" on Israeli security demands in peace talks, a government spokesman said Tuesday - Reuters

The Palestinians will not accept a state of "left-overs" on land next to Israel and new peace talks must go straight to the substance of a deal, Prime Minister Salam Fayyad said on Tuesday - Reuters

The rival Palestinian governments in the West Bank and Gaza Strip have clamped down harder on opponents and critics in recent months — deepening a nasty split that could prevent Palestinian statehood even if peace talks with Israel kicking off this week succeed against long odds. – Associated Press

Palestinian security forces arrested more than 150 Hamas members early Wednesday in an overnight sweep throughout the West Bank after the Islamic militant group claimed responsibility for shooting dead four Israelis on the eve of new Mideast peace talks. – Associated Press

Josh Rogin reports: The first direct peace talks in 20 months between Israeli and Palestinian leaders kick off Wednesday in Washington, but in reality the discussions have already begun. Even so, there are no prearranged deals on settlements or any other issue before the leaders sit down, the Israeli Embassy said Tuesday. – The Cable

Rogin also reports: The head of the Palestine Liberation Organization's Washington office is accusing Yale University of supporting "anti-Arab extremism and hate mongering" at a recent academic conference -- a charge the conference's organizer flatly denies – The Cable

Hosni Mubarak writes: The biggest obstacle that now stands in the way of success is psychological: the cumulative effect of years of violence and the expansion of Israeli settlements have led to a collapse of trust on both sides. For the talks to succeed, we must rebuild trust and a sense of security. – New York Times

Pakistan

Gen. David Petraeus said Tuesday that the concerns recently voiced by Afghan leaders about threats from Pakistan are legitimate. He was quick, however, to credit Pakistani leaders for their "impressive counterinsurgency campaign" over the last 18 months. – The Hill

India offered US$20 million (Dh73m) more in humanitarian assistance to Pakistan yesterday, as peace activists in both countries lobbied their governments to allow Indian doctors to join flood relief efforts. – The National

Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, widely considered the father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb, has kept a low profile since his unprecedented 2004 television address accepting sole responsibility for providing nuclear know-how to Iran, Libya, and North Korea. President Pervez Musharraf pardoned Khan the following day, but after a period under house arrest, he remains closely watched by authorities. Newsweek Pakistan’s Fasih Ahmed recently conducted an e-mail interview with the nuclear scientist hailed as a hero inside his own country and a threat to global security outside of it. - Newsweek

Pakistan's ambassador to the United States is warning that militants will exploit the aftermath of devastating floods unless the international community moves quickly to alleviate the massive humanitarian crisis of 20 million dislocated people. – Washington Times

A delegation of senior Pakistani military officials visiting the United States for a major defense conference headed home in protest Tuesday night after they said they were interrogated and rudely treated by security officials at Dulles International Airport. – Washington Post

Iran

Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, the Iranian woman sentenced to death by stoning, was told on Saturday that she was to be hanged at dawn on Sunday, but the sentence was not carried out, it emerged tonight. - Guardian

Iranian paramilitaries surrounded the house of leading opposition figure Mehdi Karoubi Tuesday to prevent the cleric from participating in a religious ceremony, his website said. - Reuters

Amid the controversy and international outcry sparked by the stoning sentence handed down to a 43-year-old Iranian mother of two, Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, Iran's supreme court reportedly has sentenced two more people to stoning on charges of adultery – Babylon and Beyond

Cuba

Fidel Castro took the blame for a wave of homophobia launched by his revolutionary government in the 1960s, but said it happened because he was distracted by other problems, in an interview published on Tuesday in a Mexican newspaper. - Reuters

Australia

Tony Abbott, Australia’s opposition leader, said the ruling Labor party had been thrown a “lifeline” after it reached a deal with the Greens party, setting back his bid to become prime minister… With the Greens’ support, Ms Gillard has matched Mr Abbott’s conservative coalition’s count of 73 seats. Whichever side can line up support from at least three of four independent MPs in the lower chamber can form a government and avoid a return to the polls. – Financial Times

Australian independent lawmaker Bob Katter, one of the four nonparty lawmakers who will be critical to supporting a minority government, said Wednesday he is close to deciding which party to support and expects an agreement by early next week. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard forged an alliance with the Greens party on Wednesday to take her party closer to forming a government, but vowed not to allow the deal to change her plans for a tax on miners' profits. - Reuters

Japan

Japan's Ichiro Ozawa on Wednesday promised he would intervene in financial markets to prevent sharp yen rises if he were to become prime minister, causing the currency to fall in Asian trading. – Wall Street Journal

Ideas

Anwar Ibrahim, Reuel Marc Gerecht, Bernard Lewis, and others discuss what “Moderate Islam” is in a WSJ symposium.

Afghanistan

Twenty-two American troops have been killed in Afghanistan over the past five days, a spike that follows record-high death tolls for U.S. forces in June and July. – Washington Post

US and Afghan troops have killed 19 Taliban fighters and detained five more during an air assault on a known Taliban stronghold in a village in Kunar province. – Long War Journal

NATO forces in Afghanistan are set to intensify the campaign against Taliban strongholds in the coming weeks, the head of the military alliance said on Aug. 30. - AFP

Poland needs to stay committed in Afghanistan until the job there is done, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told Reuters on the eve of a meeting with the new Polish president. - Reuters

British Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg confirmed Tuesday that Britain's combat mission in Afghanistan would end by 2015 and pledged to protect frontline troops from sudden cuts in government spending. - Reuters

A bribery probe involving a top adviser to President Hamid Karzai has angered the Afghan leader and threatens to damage U.S. relations with Kabul just three months after a White House visit that seemed to smooth ties at a critical stage in the war. – Associated Press

Afghanistan's Central Bank has taken control of the country's biggest and most politically potent private bank and ordered its chairman to hand over $160 million worth of luxury villas and other real estate purchased in Dubai for well-connected insiders, according to Afghan bankers and officials.  – Washington Post

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates on Tuesday called on a war-weary American public for patience in Afghanistan, arguing that after years of neglect the United States had finally devoted the necessary resources to a conflict that has long been overshadowed by the Iraq war. – Washington Post

Blood tests have confirmed that a mysterious series of cases of mass sickness at girls’ schools across the country over the last two years were caused by a powerful poison gas, an Afghan official said Tuesday. – New York Times

After serving as Afghanistan's top diplomat in Washington for seven years, Ambassador Said T. Jawad said Tuesday that his government has ordered him to vacate his post in September – Washington Post

United Kingdom

The Russian links of Liberal Democrat MP Mike Hancock are under the spotlight after questions were raised about the extent to which he has in effect acted as a lobbyist for the Kremlin in the Strasbourg-based Council of Europe. - Guardian

[Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair]'s face will gaze out from bookstore windows everywhere with the release Wednesday of his much-anticipated memoir. Pundits, old colleagues, friends and foes are eagerly awaiting their chance to sift through 600-plus pages for revelations, recriminations and regrets of a decade at the pinnacle of British politics. – Los Angeles Times

Britain’s Conservative government, faced with enormous deficits, may launch its Queen Elizabeth class carriers without airplanes to put on them as it considers early retirement for its Harrier jump jets. – DoD Buzz

Historic rivals and modern day allies France and Britain are in talks on pooling their naval strength, officials said Aug. 31, after reports they might share a fleet of aircraft carriers. - AFP

Southeast Asia

[I]n the heart of red shirt country, the government appears to have made little headway in calming or winning over its opponents, and the arrests and detentions illustrate the continuing divisions in the country. – New York Times

France

Mafia kingpins from the former Soviet Union have moved into the French Riviera and are taking over with “quasi-military” precision. - Telegraph

Russia

A day after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin suggested that protesters who gather routinely in central Moscow should "have a club on the head," riot police on Tuesday broke up a crowd of about 2,000 opposition supporters and onlookers and arrested scores of people. – Los Angeles Times

Police sealed off a central Moscow square and skirmished with anti-Kremlin activists Tuesday evening, detaining at least three Russian opposition leaders and dozens of followers who were part of a defiant, surging crowd that included observers from the European Parliament. At least 160 protesters were hauled onto police buses in Moscow and St. Petersburg, police said, during the latest in a year-old series of rallies demanding freedom of assembly. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Russian police detained more than 150 people including prominent opponents of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at anti-Kremlin protests Tuesday, after Putin said demonstrators without permits could expect harsh treatment. - Reuters

Watch video of yesterday’s protests.

Dmitry Medvedev may be Russia's first Internet-savvy president, but he showed the limits of his Web tolerance Tuesday, publicly scolding a regional governor for posting on Twitter during a government session. – Wall Street Journal

The body of one of Russia’s top spies has washed up on the Turkish coast after he disappeared close to a sensitive Russian naval facility in neighbouring Syria. - Telegraph

Somalia

Foreign militants do not enjoy universal acceptance in Somalia's al-Shabaab but outside powers will find it hard to use their presence to divide and weaken the hardline Islamist insurgency, a U.S. military official said - Reuters

Korean Peninsula

According to officials in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo, China has emerged as the driving force - and perhaps the only force - pushing for the resumption of six-party talks, which Beijing sees as the best way to maintain security and status quo on the Korean peninsula. – Washington Post

South Korea’s Red Cross offered the North an estimated $8.3 million in aid to help cope with flooding, the Yonhap news agency reported on Tuesday. – New York Times

North Korea vowed to strengthen military ties with China on Wednesday, days after the North's leader Kim Jong-il finished a visit aimed at bolstering the bond with his isolated country's sole major supporter. - Reuters

Lebanon

The United Nations Security Council has unanimously voted to extend the peacekeeping mission along the restive Lebanese-Israeli border for another year. – The National

Libya

Col Muammar Gaddafi has warned that Europe runs the risk of turning "black" unless the EU pays Libya at least €5 billion (£4.1 billion) a year to block the arrival of illegal immigrants from Africa. - Telegraph

Libya freed 37 prisoners late on Tuesday, including at least one former detainee at the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, who had been jailed for links to radical Islamist groups but have since renounced violence. - Reuters

Defense

Pentagon officials have created five teams to lead the effort to improve efficiency across the Defense Department, according to the Army's acquisition executive. – Defense News

This year's "early deployment" of the littoral combat ship Freedom, praised by commanders as proof of the ships' potential, actually hurt the overall progress of the full LCS program, according to a congressional report issued Tuesday, which also found that LCS will not help the Navy hunt submarines as well as originally advertised. – Defense News

The Obama administration's overhaul of regulations aimed at loosening controls on the export of some military technology is drawing fire from groups that monitor arms proliferation but praise from trade groups. – Washington Times

Egypt

The Obama administration is facing pressure from Congress and human-rights groups to press Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak to open up his country's political system ahead of presidential elections there next year. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Egyptian political activists are furious at fellow democracy and human rights campaigner Saad Eddin Ibrahim after the sociologist signed a petition urging President Hosni Mubarak's son, Gamal, to run in the 2011 elections. – Babylon and Beyond

Rwanda

Rwanda stepped up its threats on Tuesday to withdraw thousands of peacekeepers from Sudan if the United Nations published a report that accused Rwandan forces of massacring civilians and possibly committing genocide in the Democratic Republic of Congo years ago.- New York Times

Kyrgyzstan

Beset by mounting casualties on the battlefield and deepening disquiet at home over America's longest war, President Obama's Afghan policy now faces another big headache: the unraveling of central authority in Kyrgyzstan, a Central Asian nation that hosts an American air base critical to the battle against the Taliban. – Washington Post

The new school year is supposed to bring anxiety and trepidation for young students. But with wounds still raw from ethnic violence in June that killed hundreds and displaced hundreds of thousands, whole families' emotions are running high. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Gregory Feifer writes: Despite Otunbayeva's optimism about her country's future, her government's stalwart silence is likely to work against it as the south continues to seethe…A new crisis would be proof too late that Kyrgyzstan’s democratic experiment is already failing. – The New Republic

The War

American law enforcement and aviation security officials said Tuesday they thought it highly unlikely that two United States residents of Yemeni descent detained in Amsterdam on Monday had any connection to terrorism, though they were continuing to review what initially appeared to be a suspicious chain of events. – New York Times

Dutch authorities Tuesday said they need more time to investigate the case of two men who were detained after setting off terrorism fears with their travel behavior and items found in at least one of the men's luggage. – Wall Street Journal

Muslim leaders are debating the wisdom of inviting FBI agents to mosques to provide protection at a time of rising anti-Muslim rhetoric and debate about the proposed Islamic community center near Ground Zero – Washington Post

In a nearly 15-minute audio tape released in early August, Said al Shihri, one of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s (AQAP) top leaders, tried to convince Saudi soldiers and security officers to serve al Qaeda. Al Shihri set forth a dozen reasons why Saudi citizens should betray the royals, and he offered a cursory plan for doing so – Long War Journal

Turkey

A book written by a prominent police official that alleges a clandestine power grab by Islamists has created controversy by reflecting the ongoing power struggle between secularists and conservatives in Turkey. – The National

India

India's highest court on Tuesday reopened the Bhopal gas-leak case in response to a government petition seeking harsher punishment for the former Union Carbide India Ltd. executives who were convicted in June of negligence in the 1984 accident. – Washington Times

Lisa Curtis writes: U.S. policymakers and industrial leaders were thus taken off guard when the legislation (titled the Civil Liability for the Nuclear Damages Bill, 2010) passed the Upper House of the Indian parliament yesterday despite retaining language inconsistent with international standards for engaging in nuclear commerce. – Heritage Foundation

Southern Africa

United Nations officials had been warned about rape occurring in a remote Congolese area much earlier than officials originally said, according to an internal United Nations e-mail and a humanitarian bulletin. – New York Times

Rebel commanders who allowed their fighters to rape almost 200 women in the Democratic Republic of Congo could face war crimes charges, the United Nations has warned. - Telegraph

Sub-Saharan Africa

A certain amount of chaos is an ordering principle in Nigeria…yet in this case the consequences could be significant: disordered election seasons have produced contested outcomes in previous votes that are later denounced as fraudulent…This year, however, a new and more hopeful element has been added: a calm academic, suspected of neither partisanship nor corruption, has been assigned to organize the election, whenever in the coming months it may occur. – New York Times

China

The Commerce Department on Tuesday found that the Chinese government unfairly subsidized $514 million of aluminum exports to the U.S. last year.  But the U.S. said it wouldn't investigate allegations that China's currency policies function as export subsidies for Chinese manufacturers of aluminum and coated paper – Wall Street Journal

Chinese mobile telephone users must register their personal details to buy phone numbers under a rule that comes into force from Wednesday, in what the government calls an attack on spam but some see as a blow to privacy. - Reuters

Mexico

Mexico paraded one of its most violent drug lords on Tuesday after a police raid that President Felipe Calderon's government hopes will mark a breakthrough in its campaign against powerful cartels. - Reuters