FPI Overnight Brief: August 31, 2010

Iraq

The withdrawing troops leave behind a country with only a tenuous hold on stability: Nearly six months after the national parliamentary election, no new government has formed, violence is on the rise and Iraq's security forces are being targeted. Despite assurances that the United States is not abandoning Iraq, people here are scrambling to prepare themselves.  – Washington Post

President Obama is promoting the decision to end the U.S. combat mission in Iraq on Tuesday as a fulfillment of his campaign promise to draw the war to a close. But some of the president's detractors are using the same moment to question the wisdom of doing so - noting that Iraq is still afflicted with violence and has yet to form a government. – Washington Post

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) intends to broadcast his differences with the Obama administration’s national security policy in his second major policy address in as many weeks. – The Hill

President Obama will likely phone his predecessor, President George W. Bush, before delivering his speech Tuesday on the Iraq war – The Hill

Vice President Joe Biden flew into Iraq on Monday to assure Iraqis the United States is not abandoning them as it stops combat operations, a milestone in the 7-1/2 year war the Obama administration is trying to end. - Reuters

FPI Director William Kristol writes in an open letter to President Obma: [M]y sincere hope—and it is sincere, with no political agenda (for what it's worth, I think following the advice I'm about to give would help you politically)—is that you don't begin your remarks tomorrow night, as you did your weekly address Saturday, by taking credit for fulfilling a campaign promise. Your oath as president was to "preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States," and it is in that capacity that you now make foreign policy judgments, not as a former candidate keeping well- or ill-considered campaign promises. – The Weekly Standard Blog

Ryan Crocker writes: How successfully Iraqis deal with [its] challenges has a great deal to do with the level of U.S. engagement going forward, including the process of government formation. For the time being, we remain the indispensable broker, mediator and catalyst. But we also face the persistent problem of a Washington clock that runs much faster than the Baghdad clock – Washington Post

Steve Hadley writes: The U.S. objective was also to leave behind an Iraq that would be able to govern itself, defend itself, sustain itself and be an ally in the war on terror. That objective has also been achieved.  A stubborn al Qaeda presence is still capable of spectacular terrorist attacks, but those attacks are neither a strategic threat nor a harbinger of renewed sectarian violence. The six-month stalemate in forming a new government is worrying, but virtually all Iraqi leaders accept the need for a broadly inclusive government. Once formed, that government must dramatically improve the delivery of services to its people and develop the extensive oil reserves that can fuel future economic growth and domestic prosperity. But the Iraqis have shown that they are ready, willing and able to run their own country. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Paul Wolfowitz writes: It is well worth celebrating the end of combat operations after seven years, and the homecoming of so many troops. But fully abandoning Iraq would damage the interests of the United States in the region and beyond. Maintaining a long-term commitment, albeit at greatly reduced cost and risk, is the best way to secure the gains that have been achieved with so much sacrifice. – New York Times

Rep. Buck McKeon (R-CA) writes: Gens. Petraeus and Ray T. Odierno successfully built a security architecture that allows U.S. forces to ensure security there through 2011. But the U.S. "advise and assist" force presence, which expires Dec. 31, 2011, is only one component of U.S. support to Iraq – Los Angeles Times

Kori Schake writes:  When President Obama speaks to the country about the end of combat operations, he needs to make clear why civilians will be performing inherently military tasks, why the State Department has reduced its presence throughout Iraq even as its numbers have increased five-fold, what steps are being taken to ensure State has the resources it needs and has adequate oversight of spending and contractors, and, most importantly, prepare Americans for the continued risks our diplomats and development professionals will be running. – Shadow Government

Iran

It is nothing new for the Iranian regime to lambast the West in robust terms. But [recent] various diatribes raised eyebrows at home and abroad because crudity rarely features in Iran’s political discourse. Analysts say that while Mr Ahmadinejad’s earthy rhetoric against the West upsets educated Iranians and reformists, it is a populist attempt to appeal to his working-class supporters as a man of the people possessing a common touch. – The National

A rare victory was won by Iranian moderates Monday. The legislature opted to shelve a controversial set of proposals that activists said would have further restricted women's rights – Babylon and Beyond

Iran’s radical and conservative fundamentalists have ignored the orders of the regime’s supreme leader and begun exchanging recriminations once again – Financial Times

Iran said it would produce in a year the nuclear fuel needed for a medical reactor in Tehran, a news agency reported on Monday, days after the Islamic state began loading fuel into its first atomic power plant. - Reuters

In a Spiegel interview, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, 57, discusses the stoning of adulterers, the consequences of Western sanctions against Iran and the risk of a military strike against his country. – Der Spiegel

Israel

As preparations intensify for a Palestinian-Israeli summit meeting in Washington on Thursday, the crude outlines of a Palestinian state are emerging in the West Bank, with increasingly reliable security forces, a more disciplined government and a growing sense among ordinary citizens that they can count on basic services. – New York Times

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak will visit Russia next week to discuss Israel's security concerns and Russian interest in purchasing Israeli arms, an Israeli official said Monday. - Reuters

The Palestinian prime minister, Salam Fayyad, warned today that a "moment of reckoning" was approaching as Israel and the Palestinian Authority prepare to embark this week on their first direct negotiations for 20 months. - Guardian

As Israeli and Palestinian negotiators prepare for the first direct negotiations since 2008, the Jewish state is braced for one of the most difficult diplomatic months in its history. – Washington Times

Palestinian and Israeli leaders, on the eve of direct peace talks in Washington, jockeyed for position Monday with last-minute messages that they were committed to peace. But both sides have also assured their domestic constituencies that they won't concede too much, and a disagreement over Israeli construction in the West Bank emerged as the first major test of the talks, which begin Wednesday. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

When President Barack Obama hosts the Israeli and Palestinian leaders in Washington this week at the launch of direct peace talks, it will mark not only months of exhaustive shuttle diplomacy, but also a reset in the Obama White House’s efforts to engage the pro-Israel community in the United States and reassure it of the administration’s pro-Israel credentials - Politico

When the leaders of Israel and the Palestinian Authority take their seats on Wednesday at a White House dinner marking the start of a new round of Middle East peace talks, the ghost at the table will be Hamas. The Islamist movement, uninvited yet impossible to ignore, remains implacably opposed to the new diplomatic effort… Yet its dissent highlights a crucial problem faced by the parties meeting in the US: how to make progress when the Palestinian national movement is divided between two rival factions in two increasingly estranged territories – Financial Times

Egypt

A leading rights activist noted for opposing the hereditary succession of power in Egypt denied yesterday that he had abandoned his principles and backed Gamal Mubarak for the presidency. – The National

Pro-democracy activist Saad Eddin Ibrahim has signed a petition supporting the political ambitions of the Egyptian president's son, riling the opposition who say the move undermines their call for political change. - Reuters

Egyptian security forces in Sinai seized 100 kg (220 lb) of high explosives smugglers were preparing to take into Gaza, a security source said on Monday. - Reuters

Asia

Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top commander in Afghanistan, has completed work on new guidelines for turning some security duties over to Afghan forces in the months ahead, calling for American and allied troops to step back gradually from areas as they are pacified rather than handing off the task all at once to local units, according to senior NATO and Pentagon officials. – New York Times

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) writes: The president needs to state unequivocally that the conduct of the war, including decisions about troop strength, will be based on conditions on the ground. Furthermore, U.S. withdrawals should follow from a definition of success in Afghanistan that is broadly analogous to the success now emerging in Iraq—a country that is increasingly able to defend and govern itself. We can succeed in Afghanistan, but we need to give this policy the necessary time to work. That's the best and fastest way for our troops to come home, as they are now from Iraq. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Chinese police "accidentally" shot dead an ethnic Tibetan during a protest in southwestern China two weeks ago, state news agency Xinhua said Monday. - Reuters

India’s Parliament approved a final, critical piece of a long-delayed landmark civil nuclear agreement on Monday, a pact regarded as a cornerstone of a Bush-era effort to transform the relationship between the United States and the world’s largest democracy. – New York Times

James Mann writes: Over the last few months, China has had several fairly nasty public rows with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of State Robert M. Gates, the two highest-ranking members of Barack Obama’s foreign policy team. And that raises an interesting question: Does China have any friends left at the top levels of the Obama administration? – TNR’s Entanglements Blog

The Obama administration on Monday singled out Office 39 as one of several North Korean entities that it says are engaged in illicit activity — fleshing out new sanctions that were first announced in July by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton during a visit to South Korea. – New York Times

Late on Sunday, the cricketer-turned-activist Imran Khan joined hundreds of volunteers and lorry drivers in Islamabad to pack their vehicles with supplies for those worst hit by Pakistan’s devastating floods. – The National

A North Korean arms chief and Pyongyang's former ambassador to the United Nation's nuclear agency have emerged as key figures in an intensifying international effort to curb North Korea's weapons-trading activities. – Wall Street Journal

Syed Saleem Shahzad reports: Natural disaster is paving the way for the manmade variety in Pakistan and Afghanistan. This summer’s floods in Northeast Pakistan have provided al Qaeda the opportunity to advance a new strategy in the Afghan war. – Boston Review

North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il met Chinese President Hu Jintao during his five-day visit to northeast China, the Chinese government confirmed Monday night as Mr. Kim left the country, in a surprise get-together that underscored their solidarity as they cope with pressure from the U.S. and other countries to act more responsibly. – Wall Street Journal

An armed forces shake-up in military-controlled Myanmar has surprised even the soldiers as the ruling junta gears up for a November election in which its civilian proxies are expecting a resounding victory. - Reuters

North Korea has given the clearest hint yet that Kim Jong-il, its ’Dear Leader’, will be succeeded by his third and youngest son. - Telegraph

The No. 1 procurement priority identified by U.S. officials to complete their mission to equip and train the Afghanistan security forces is the acquisition of dozens of additional Mi-17 helicopters – Aviation Week

China pressed regional powers on Tuesday to restart talks on ending North Korea's nuclear ambitions, and Seoul offered aid to its destitute neighbor despite a new round of U.S. sanctions against Pyongyang - Reuters

A Pakistan-based militant network is escalating its attacks against Nato and Afghan forces and has become the biggest insurgent threat in eastern Afghanistan, the US military believes - Telegraph

Japan's government offered a modest stimulus package Monday and the central bank took steps aimed at curbing the rising yen, but a tepid reaction from markets leaves policy makers under pressure to do more. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Graft is destroying Afghanistan and next month's parliamentary poll will be little more than a dark comedy run by political elites unless there is real change, one of President Hamid Karzai's fiercest critics has said - Reuters

To cynics among analysts and investors, the flurry of action by Japanese economic authorities on Monday was more about politics than substance, a somewhat desperate show intended to ensure they are not blamed for a badly faltering recovery. – Financial Times

The head of NATO said on Monday he hoped alliance states would agree at a Lisbon summit to start handing over security responsibility in Afghanistan to local authorities next year. - Reuters

Japanese powerbroker Ichiro Ozawa said on Tuesday he would stick to his plan to challenge Prime Minister Naoto Kan in a party election, setting up a showdown that threatens to create a policy vacuum as Japan struggles with a strong yen and a fragile economy. - Reuters

The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan from next July will begin with a general "thinning out" of forces rather than any large-scale drawdown, the commander of U.S. and NATO forces said on Tuesday - Reuters

Closer contacts between retired Taiwanese generals and the Chinese authorities have sparked concerns in Washington, the island's major arms supplier, media and an official said Aug. 30. - AFP

Europe/Russia

Vladimir Putin has said it will take decades to reform Russia and that he wants to keep shaping the fate of the world’s largest country, as he gave his strongest indication he will serve a third term as president from 2012. - Telegraph

German Chancellor Angela Merkel says she pressed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych on the issue of press freedom during a visit to Berlin today. Merkel said she "made clear that with regard to certain democratic areas, in particular in the area of press freedom and the freedom of opinion, we had certain questions." – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

As the world marks the International Day of the Disappeared on August 30, many in the Balkans continue to anguish over the fate of loved ones who vanished without a trace. Many have been discovered in mass graves and painstakingly identified. Others remain missing. But almost no one comes back alive. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

President Dmitry Medvedev has ordered the Federal Forestry Agency to be transferred to the direct control of the government as the authorities take steps to ensure that there will be no repeat to the wildfires that ravaged central Russia last month. – Moscow Times

Russia's paramount leader, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, hinted on Monday he would return to the presidency in 2012 for six more years and said democracy protesters marching without permission deserved to be beaten. - Reuters

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin disparaged Russian dissidents in crude street language in an interview Monday and said they would keep getting beaten if they continued to hold unauthorized rallies. – Associated Press

For the first time in more than half a century, Germany’s political leadership appears ready to end the draft, a post World War II mandate embedded in the Constitution to prevent this nation’s military from ever again developing into a state-within-a-state that could impede democracy and start war. – New York Times

Africa

Four Ugandan peacekeepers were killed in the Somali capital Mogadishu on Monday when al Shabaab Islamist rebels fired mortars at the presidential palace, an African Union spokesman said. - Reuters

A series of murders in the mountains east of Algiers this month is a demonstration of force by al Qaeda's north Africa arm to ensure danger money from local farmers keeps flowing into its coffers, residents say - Reuters

The Libyan government will release 38 more members of a radical Islamist group jailed for plotting to overthrow the government of Muammar Gaddafi, the country's attorney general Abderhmane al Abbar said Monday. - Reuters

A U.S. aid worker was released in Darfur on Monday after being held by her kidnappers for 105 days, the latest in a series of abductions of foreigners for ransom in Sudan's west. - Reuters

South Africa's government increased its wage raise offer to unions representing 1.3 million striking state workers, a source said on Monday, trying to end a strike that threatens Africa's largest economy. - Reuters

Americas

A high school football star from Texas who went on to become one of the most wanted drug traffickers in Mexico was arrested Monday by federal police. – Washington Post

Former Cuban leader Fidel Castro told an interviewer there were times during his long illness when he was at death's door but now he is mostly recovered and trying to avert nuclear war. - Reuters

About 3,200 Mexican federal police officers, nearly a tenth of the force, have been fired this year under new rules designed to weed out crooked cops and modernize law enforcement, officials said Monday. – Los Angeles Times

With growing boldness, drug gangs and smuggling organizations on both sides of the border are disguising their couriers and assassins in phony uniforms and vehicles, passing them off as mail handlers and oil field workers, or even Mexican soldiers and Texas sheriffs – Washington Post

This month, the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency announced that the Obama administration is planning to dismiss thousands of illegal alien deportation cases, possibly 17,000, if the immigrants have a potential path to legal residency or overstayed their visas. But critics say many illegal aliens with long criminal records composed of what some courts consider to be lesser charges will see their deportation cases dismissed as well – Washington Examiner

Australia

Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard on Tuesday rejected calls for an early return to the polls after the first inconclusive election result in 70 years.  Instead, she argued lawmakers need to explore new ways of achieving a consensus to avoid parliamentary gridlock after neither of Australia's two major political forces gained enough votes in the Aug. 21 election to control the lower house of parliament. The prime minister remains at the helm, but only in a caretaker role. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Discussions to form a minority government in Australia have grown tense after a key independent lawmaker Monday detailed allegations of intimidation tactics by members of the opposition coalition—including a phone call allegedly placed to a lawmaker's wife by someone claiming to be the devil—in what he said is a bid to derail talks and force fresh elections. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Julia Gillard has backed an independent speaker as part of parliamentary reforms designed to respond to voters' demands for "new politics".  A defiant Prime Minister also said no party had won the election, that the two-party preferred vote remained neck-and-neck, and declared she stands ready to govern. – The Australian

Australia's opposition leader entered late night talks with independent MPs on forming a minority government after seizing a critical advantage in both parliamentary seats and share of the vote. - Telegraph

Defense

U.S. lawmakers are scrambling to pass a stand-alone amendment to the 2010 Defense Authorization Act to keep the Navy's planned 124-plane Super Hornet deal alive after a pair of technicallities threatened to scuttle the buy. – Defense News

David Trachtenberg reports: The Active Denial System (ADS)—a novel millimeter-wave technology useful for deterring approaching individuals and protecting American forces without jeopardizing innocent lives—has been redeployed from Afghanistan because of concerns about how its use against Afghans might be perceived. – AEI’s Center for Defense Studies

When U.S. airmen go to work, they monitor grainy feeds from remotely piloted aircraft flying over Iraq and Afghanistan. But soon pictures of the war are going to get just as sharp as what they watch on their big screens at home. – Defense News

Pratt & Whitney is upping the ante in the ongoing F-35 Joint Strike Fighter engine war by revealing the F135 has achieved combat-rated thrust 20% higher than the specification. – Aviation Week

Israel is in talks to build the wings for about a quarter of the United States's new F-35 stealth fighter aircraft, an Israeli official said on Monday. - Reuters

The director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is in the early stages of engaging industry on a series of projects worth billions of dollars that will shape the nation’s defense architecture, but he continues to struggle with contractors building unreliable products. – Aviation Week

U.S. President Barack Obama plans to announce export control reforms Aug. 31 that would make it easier for U.S. companies to sell many military and dual-use technologies abroad. – Defense News

The War

Two United States residents of Yemeni descent who flew from Chicago to Amsterdam on Sunday night were detained by the Dutch police after landing on Monday in a bizarre episode that American officials feared might be a dry run for a terrorist plot. – New York Times

The American Civil Liberties Union and the Center for Constitutional Rights filed a federal lawsuit Monday challenging the U.S. government's authority to target and kill U.S. citizens outside of war zones when they are suspected of involvement in terrorism. – Washington Post

There may not be quite as many bombs falling from the sky. But don’t let that fool you. The United States has dramatically escalated its air war over Afghanistan. – Danger Room