FPI Overnight Brief: August 30, 2010

Middle East

The departing commander of American forces in Iraq, Gen. Ray Odierno, said Sunday that a new Iraqi government could still be two months away and warned that a stalemate beyond that could create demands for a new election to break the deadlock, which has lasted since March – New York Times

The leading Islamic scholar of the United Arab Emirates, Dubai's Grand Mufti Ahmad Bin Abdul Aziz Haddad, appears to be deeply concerned over the growing numbers of Emirati men that are marrying foreign women.  His solution: Curb mixed marriages and impose restrictions on Emirati men that are marrying foreign women. In Haddad's opinion, Emirati men should only think of marrying a foreign woman as a last resort. – Babylon and Beyond

President Obama will begin his one-year effort to achieve Middle East peace on Wednesday, joining a long list of his predecessors who have tried to achieve a comprehensive peace between Israelis and Palestinians – New York Times

Although the Awakening groups were once thought of as a new militia that could undermine any future Iraqi government at will, these fears appear to have been baseless. Instead, once powerful Awakening leaders are dejected, their power emasculated. – The National

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said he hoped the peace negotiations that begin next week would include meetings every two weeks between him and the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, an Israeli official said Friday. – New York Times

The mixed neighbourhoods in which Shiites once lived are a thing of the past and the population suffers from the violent sectarianism that shades the lives of all Iraqis today. – The National

As U.S. combat troops leave Iraq this month, one of the problems left behind is a shortage of electricity for ordinary Iraqis. The problem used to be blamed on the insurgency, but now -- with the insurgency largely quelled -- it is a measure of the future economic and political challenges the country faces instead – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Recent discoveries of large natural gas reserves off Israel's coast have set in motion a battle between investors and the government over how to divide up the profits. – Washington Post

Michael O’Hanlon and Ian Livingston write: The most important thing Obama can do with his speech Tuesday is to look forward, rather than backward, and explain his strategy for helping Iraqis put together a government that is accepted as legitimate by most citizens. Ultimately, Iraqis will make the key decisions, but the United States can and should play a constructive role in the Iraqi political process -- something it has not always succeeded at doing. Iraq has come a long way, and Obama deserves a good chunk of the recent credit -- but it will all matter very little if things fall apart in the coming months – Foreign Policy

Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, faces a crisis of credibility among his own people as he heads into direct talks with Israel in Washington this week. – The National

Even as doors have opened for a few people, they have shut with increasing frequency on activists demanding greater political rights, according to human rights lawyers here. While some rights advocates welcome any opening, no matter how small, others say it extends only to groups that pose no challenge to the established order. – New York Times

Noah Feldman writes: Iraq faces a raft of difficulties if it is to become an effective, self-governing nation, and all of them point to the need for a continuing U.S. role in security and beyond – Wall Street Journal

As U.S. military forces continue to stream out of Iraq, formally ending combat operations on Tuesday, one of the most effective elements of those forces missed the drawdown completely. There are as many special operations forces in the country now as there were when the exit began last year. – Washington Times

An Egyptian-American dissident and former advocate against heredity succession in Egypt has signed a petition backing the president's son to run in next year's elections. Sociologist Saad Eddin Ibrahim gained prominence for being one of the first to criticize a trend toward sons succeeding their fathers in the Middle East in 2000, which earned him the ire of the regime and a three year court battle to stay out of prison. – Associated Press

President Obama vowed Saturday that all U.S. troops will return home from Iraq by the end of next year, completing his 2008 campaign promise to end the war. – The Hill

Iran has submitted a proposal to Russia to jointly assemble the nuclear fuel for the country's new power reactor and any future facilities, state media reported Thursday. – Associated Press

Investigations into spying allegations against three American hikers detained in Iran will be completed soon, Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi said in a news report on Saturday. - Reuters

Keep it short and to the point. And above all, don't embarrass the boss. That's the message of a series of official Saudi directives restricting the activities of clerics who issue bizarre fatwas or deliver long-winded sermons, including some clergy accused of simply ripping off sermons from the Internet and reading them aloud.  – Babylon and Beyond

Insurgents affiliated with Al Qaeda in Iraq claimed responsibility on Saturday for a wave of car bombings, roadside mines and hit-and-run attacks this week in at least 13 Iraqi cities and towns, a deadly and relentless campaign whose breadth surprised American military officials and dealt a blow to Iraq’s fledgling security forces. – New York Times

Peace will not be achieved in northern Yemen until the government releases all the prisoners it captured during years of conflict, a Zaidi rebel group said after signing a deal to bolster a fragile truce – The National

A prominent Saudi human rights activist will remain in jail, more than three years after his arrest, as state prosecutors are preparing charges against him and other activists, his lawyers said on Saturday. - Reuters

Iran has transferred assets out of European banks in its latest effort to defend itself against the effects of sanctions that are part of what Iranian officials have called an “economic war” against the country by the United States and other Western countries. – New York Times

With a frightening reputation and friends in high places, Said Mortazavi for years appeared to have the untouchable status that bred impunity and led his enemies to label him the "torturer of Tehran."…But now, it seems, Tehran's fearsome former chief prosecutor may have met his nemesis -- brought low by violent events that have shocked Iran's political establishment into seeking a high-profile fall guy. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Kuwait’s ministry of health has announced a plan to deal with accidents involving radioactive pollution, one week after Kuwaiti officials expressed concern with the proximity of Iran’s new nuclear plant. – The National

The Iranian woman sentenced to death by stoning has been denied visits by her lawyer and family, her son told the Guardian today, as it emerged that her lawyer has been subjected to fresh harassment. - Guardian

Asia

Afghan President Hamid Karzai's chief of staff said Saturday that he is not sure the government is "on a path to success" in securing the country against the Taliban and that it could fail altogether if the United States does not significantly alter its strategy in fighting the nine-year-old war. – Washington Post

Hundreds of thousands more Pakistanis fled their homes as high floodwaters reached the southernmost region of the country and inundated several more districts, the United Nations said Friday. – New York Times

As the Chinese government has grown richer — and more worried about sustaining its high-octane growth — it has pumped public money into companies that it expects to upgrade the industrial base and employ more people. The beneficiaries are state-owned interests that many analysts had assumed would gradually wither away in the face of private-sector competition – New York Times

For generations, politics took place in the parlors of a handful of rich families, a Westernized elite that owned large tracts of land and sometimes even the people who worked it. But Pakistan is urbanizing fast, and powerful forces of change are chipping away at the landed aristocracy, known in Pakistan as the feudal class. – New York Times

The U.S. Commerce Department is expected Tuesday to find that $550 million in imported Chinese aluminum was illegally subsidized by the Chinese government, people familiar with the situation said, potentially leading to higher import duties as early as next week. – Wall Street Journal

One of the country’s most senior prosecutors said Saturday that President Hamid Karzai fired him last week after he repeatedly refused to block corruption investigations at the highest levels of Mr. Karzai’s government. – New York Times

Flood-stricken Pakistan urgently needs more international aid to combat potential instability and extremism, influential U.S. Senator John Kerry said, as hunger and disease threaten millions of victims. - Reuters

China on Aug. 28 denied reports that defense exchanges with India had been suspended by New Delhi in retaliation for Beijing refusing a visa to a top general from its neighbor. - AFP

Afghanistan's attorney general denied Sunday that a prosecutor investigating allegations of corruption in the upper reaches of the government had been fired, saying the official simply had reached the point when retirement was mandatory. – Los Angeles Times

[T]he United States has begun weighing a fresh effort at engagement with Mr. Kim’s government, officials and analysts briefed on the deliberations say.  Such an overture would come “several moves down the chessboard,” a senior official said, and would be preceded by additional pressure tactics. But it suggests that the administration has concluded that pressure alone will not be enough to move North Korea’s ailing, reclusive dictator. – New York Times

China said Sunday its navy will stage live-ammunition drills in the Yellow Sea this week, after it condemned U.S.-South Korean joint naval exercises in the region and vowed to respond in kind. – Associated Press

Renewed tension with Afghan President Hamid Karzai—this time over the ouster of a graft-fighting prosecutor—is adding to doubts within the Obama administration and the U.S. military about their ability to show progress fighting corruption and improving governance, ahead of a White House review of war strategy in December. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Prime Minister-designate Kim Tae-ho of South Korea resigned on Sunday amid allegations that he lied about his connections with a businessman convicted of bribery. – New York Times

Chrystia Freeland writes: America can respect China without imitating it. Dictators are easy to admire, especially at a distance. Free markets and free societies always look messy and inefficient, especially up close. But when it comes to inventing the modern world, and living at its edge, so far the best model the world has come up with is democratic capitalism. – Washington Post

A year since the U.S. troop buildup in Afghanistan began with battalions of Marines descending on the Helmand River Valley, optimism about a quick defeat of the insurgents after early small-scale routs has given way to more sober assessments.  As the death toll steadily climbs, the top Marine warns that it could take as long as five years to defeat the Taliban and help the Afghan government establish a credible presence – Los Angeles Times

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il appeared to be headed home Sunday from a secretive trip to Beijing that analysts believed was intended to pave the way for an imminent succession to power of Kim's youngest son. – Los Angeles Times

Burma has carried out its biggest military reshuffle in 22 years as the ageing junta moves to consolidate its rule through November elections that are set to be dominated by retired generals. - Telegraph

Seven American soldiers were killed in fighting in eastern and southern Afghanistan over the weekend, after several weeks of declining death tolls among NATO forces. – New York Times

Former president Jimmy Carter landed Friday in Boston with a U.S. citizen whose release he obtained from a North Korean prison, achieving the main goal of a trip to Pyongyang. – Washington Post

Nearly 70 percent of Japanese voters want Prime Minister Naoto Kan to win the party leadership against powerbroker Ichiro Ozawa, a survey showed on Saturday, a race that could create a policy vacuum and push the yen higher - Reuters

Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan president, is intent on using next month's parliamentary elections as a platform to change the constitution and extend his presidency beyond the current two term limit. - Telegraph

China is lobbying neighbors to sign up to a road map for renewed nuclear disarmament talks with North Korea, whose leader Kim Jong-il is visiting China amid conciliatory words and threats of "holy war." - Reuters

Sooronbai Jeenbekov was named governor of the southern region of Osh by interim President Roza Otunbaeva in April, almost two months before the clashes between ethnic Uzbeks and Kyrgyz in the Osh and Jalal-Abad regions that led to nearly 400 deaths and thousands of homes and businesses being destroyed…Jeenbekov tells RFE/RL about the Kyrgyz government's authority in the south, what he thinks caused the deadly ethnic clashes in Osh, and why people oppose the deployment of an international Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) police force to southern Kyrgyzstan. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

The Taliban have claimed they planned to launch an attack on a helicopter carrying David Cameron, during his first visit to Afghanistan as prime minister in June, from a base in Helmand province - Guardian

Kim Jong Il, suspected of suffering a stroke in 2008, is believed to have accelerated succession plans, but analysts say the meeting of the Workers' Party won't send its supreme leader into retirement just yet - Reuters

The bodies of five volunteers working for a female MP have been found riddled with bullets in western Afghanistan, amid a growing campaign of violent intimidation against women running in the country's elections - Guardian

North Korea's ambassador to Cuba said Aug. 28 that, if attacked, his country would respond with nuclear weapons and engage in a "sacred war," Cuban state media reported. - AFP

Insurgents wearing U.S. Army uniforms launched predawn attacks Saturday on a major NATO base in eastern Afghanistan and a nearby camp where seven CIA employees were killed last year in a suicide bombing. NATO said there were no coalition casualties and the attacks were repelled. – Associated Press

Michael Green writes: The Obama administration has to keep one simple rule in mind if they begin exploring bilateral and multilateral talks with the north in the weeks and months ahead: Do not pay for the talks by relaxing defensive measures such as financial sanctions and military exercises. The fact is that these defensive measures are no longer primarily about gaining leverage on North Korea to make concessions. They are now fundamentally about defending ourselves and our allies against the kind of inward proliferation we discovered with the North’s clandestine HEU program and outward proliferation we have discovered in Syria and now Burma. – Shadow Government

Europe/Russia

Early reports from Russia’s harvest indicate that yields of wheat and barley are down sharply, as predicted after a major drought here this summer that has helped send global wheat prices up sharply since June.  Despite the implications for Russian consumers and the global market, the crop failures may translate to a relatively minimal financial effect on the country’s agricultural companies, which before the drought were just catching their stride after an overhaul of Soviet-era collective farms. The higher prices, in fact, made one company profitable, according to an earnings report released Friday. – New York Times

President Dmitry Medvedev has forwarded to the Investigative Committee an appeal from an international alliance of lawyers for justice in the death of Hermitage Capital lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, the association said Thursday. – Moscow Times

A shootout between the Chechen president's personal protection detail and suspected separatist insurgents left 19 people dead early Sunday, including five civilians, officials and media reports said. – Associated Press

Editorial:  Q: In what sort of society might a 68-year-old man be sent to jail for peacefully carrying his nation's flag in a parade to celebrate Flag Day? A: In Vladimir Putin's Russia, if the man is someone that Mr. Putin -- former president, current prime minister and seemingly eternal ruling-party boss -- happens not to like – Washington Post

Charles Kupchan writes:  The European Union is dying -- not a dramatic or sudden death, but one so slow and steady that we may look across the Atlantic one day soon and realize that the project of European integration that we've taken for granted over the past half-century is no more – Washington Post

Tony Blair attempted to prolong his time as prime minister after he was warned that George W Bush’s US administration had “grave doubts” about Gordon Brown’s suitability to follow him into No10, well placed sources have revealed - Telegraph

The Italian government is preparing for a battle over planned justice reforms that would set time limits on trials but also effectively shield Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi from two pending cases - Reuters

Slovenian prosecutors have filed charges against former prime minister Janez Jansa over alleged bribery in the biggest defense deal signed by Slovenia yet, media reported Aug. 27. - AFP

Investigative Committee head Alexander Bastrykin on Thursday replaced the head of the agency's powerful Moscow branch, Anatoly Bagmet, with a little-known Kremlin administration official, marking a surprise twist in a battle between the agency and the Prosecutor General's Office… [Vadim] Yakovenko's position in the Kremlin for the past four years triggered speculation that President Dmitry Medvedev was sending an ally to one of the strongholds of the siloviki, a powerful group of former security service officials. – Moscow Times

Africa

Somali militants linked to al-Qaeda briefly asserted control over Mogadishu's most strategic road Saturday, escalating their efforts to overthrow the U.S.-backed transitional government in a region where Islamic radicalism is gaining strength. – Washington Post

The International Criminal Court (ICC) chief prosecutor has accused Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir of abusing African hospitality and threatening the West as he seeks to avoid arrest on genocide charges. - Reuters

President Mwai Kibaki signed Kenya's new constitution Friday, describing the occasion as the greatest day since independence in 1963. But the presence of Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir, wanted on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity, brought controversy to the event. – Los Angeles Times

A powerful South African labor leader threatened at the weekend to withdraw support for President Jacob Zuma's African National Congress, ending a long- standing alliance strained by a nearly three-week-old strike. - Reuters

A Somali man pleaded guilty Friday to piracy-related charges for attacking a U.S. Navy ship in what the defendant said was a case of mistaken identity. Jama Idle Ibrahim told authorities he intended to attack a merchant vessel to hold it for ransom and discovered that he was attacking a Navy ship instead. – Associated Press

Violence has long riven Somalia. But the carnage at this three-story hotel, painted in soft hues of green and yellow, has triggered a collective dread in the besieged capital that the conflict has entered a dangerous new phase. – Washington Post

A forthcoming United Nations report on 10 years of extraordinary violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo bluntly challenges the conventional history of events there after the 1994 Rwandan genocide, charging that invading troops from Rwanda and their rebel allies killed tens of thousands of members of the Hutu ethnic group, including many civilians. – New York Times

The Obama administration, which came to office promising stronger leadership on Sudan, is now scrambling to salvage a 2005 U.S.-backed peace accord and prevent Africa's largest nation from sliding back into civil war – Washington Post

Americas

Mexico's war on powerful drug cartels suffered a series of setbacks on Friday, including the disappearance of a prosecutor charged with investigating this week's massacre of 72 migrants, and twin explosions that suggested cartels are trying to become proficient in car bombs. – Wall Street Journal

The office of Mexican President Felipe Calderon says the mayor of a town in the violence-plagued border state of Tamaulipas has been assassinated, the second killing of a mayor in the area in two weeks – Associated Press

Police here are continuing to hold a man described by a federal prosecutor as a fourth suspect in a widening Canadian terrorism probe. – Wall Street Journal

Brazilian ruling party candidate Dilma Rousseff opened a 24-percentage point lead over her main presidential rival in an opinion poll on Saturday, staying on course win the October 3 election in the first round - Reuters

Australia

Australia's caretaker Prime Minister Julia Gillard and her opposition rival Tony Abbott on Friday reached a deal that will see his conservative coalition submit its election policies to the Treasury to be independently assessed. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

An Aboriginal Australian has been elected to the country’s parliament for the first time.  Ken Wyatt, 57, claimed the marginal West Australian seat of Hasluck for the Liberals on Sunday. - Telegraph

Australia's political gridlock inched nearer to a resolution that would provide market certainty on Monday after "kingmaker" independent lawmakers set new demands as the price for their support for a minority government - Reuters

Defense

Sen. Richard Lugar, the ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, predicted Friday that a "large majority" of members in his party will back a key nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia and that it will be ratified. – The Hill

Why did the U.S. Army delay its Ground Combat Vehicle (GCV) development effort? Because it didn't learn a key lesson of the failed Future Combat Systems (FCS) program: don't overreach.  That's the consensus from industry and congressional officials, as well as the DoD-Army red team whose review led the Army to cancel the request for proposals it issued in February – Defense News

President Obama on Tuesday will tout the steps his administration has taken to overhaul the nation’s export control system, which many view as an outdated relic of the Cold War. – The Hill

James Jones writes: Export controls constitute the regulations we have to restrict the export of certain products and technology for national security and other reasons. The changes that we are making—in what we control, how we control it, how we enforce those controls, and how we manage our controls—will help strengthen national security by focusing on controlling the most critical technologies, preserving the technological edge that U.S. forces enjoy on the battlefield, and strengthening our economic competitiveness. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

The Pentagon is contemplating an aggressive approach to defending its computer systems that includes preemptive actions such as knocking out parts of an adversary's computer network overseas - but it is still wrestling with how to pursue the strategy legally. – Washington Post

A former State Department contractor allegedly leaked information from a "top secret" intelligence report on North Korea to a Fox News reporter, according to federal charges disclosed Friday. – Wall Street Journal

Accused of a 15-year run as one of the world’s biggest arms traffickers, Viktor Bout is thought to be a consummate deal maker.  Now his future may hang on whether he can strike one last bargain: trading what American officials believe is his vast insider’s knowledge of global criminal networks in exchange for not spending the rest of his life in a federal prison. – New York Times

The War

After working for a year to redeem the international reputation of military commissions, Obama administration officials are alarmed by the first case to go to trial under revamped rules: the prosecution of a former child soldier whom an American interrogator implicitly threatened with gang rape. – New York Times

Obama Administration

A year and a half into his presidency, Mr. Obama appears to be a reluctant warrior. Even as he draws down troops in Iraq, he has been abundantly willing to use force to advance national interests, tripling forces in Afghanistan, authorizing secret operations in Yemen and Somalia, and escalating drone strikes in Pakistan. But advisers said he did not see himself as a war president in the way his predecessor did.  – New York Times

Josh Rogin reports: The Cable has confirmed that Michael Newbill will join the National Security Council as a director for South Asia, finally completing the U.S. administration's India policy team less than three months before President Barack Obama's first visit there – The Cable