FPI Overnight Brief: August 27, 2010

Southern Africa

The United Nations has accused Rwanda of wholesale war crimes, including possibly genocide, during years of conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo. An unprecedented 600-page investigation by the UN high commissioner for human rights catalogues years of murder, rape and looting in a conflict in which hundreds of thousands were slaughtered. - Guardian

The Security Council demanded on Thursday that all steps be taken to prevent a repeat of a recent mass rape in Congo as council members voiced open dissatisfaction at the late response of U.N. forces. - Reuters

[B]usiness leaders have been relieved to see little change in economic policy since Zuma's election victory in April last year. However, that stability has come at the cost of unrest among the president's natural allies on the left, vividly demonstrated by the bitter public sector strike that entered its ninth day Thursday, paralyzing South Africa's health and education services. – Washington Post

Afghanistan

Ten campaign workers for a female parliamentary candidate in western Afghanistan were abducted by gunmen Thursday and the Taliban claimed responsibility for two deadly attacks, one that killed eight Afghan police officers and another that killed two Spanish police trainers and a Spanish-Afghan translator a day earlier. – New York Times

A key Senate Republican on Thursday sharpened his position on negotiations with the Afghan Taliban, saying he backs "reintegration" programs but not "dividing" the country with the group – The Hill

The United States expects the Taliban to increase attacks in next month's parliamentary elections, including in Afghanistan's north where insurgents have made inroads, a senior U.S. defense official said on Thursday. - Reuters

Afghanistan, believed to be sitting on top of billions of dollars worth of minerals and energy sources, has extracted oil for the first time and plans to pump a modest 800 barrels a day, officials said on Thursday. - Reuters

The CIA is making secret payments to multiple members of President Hamid Karzai's administration, in part to maintain sources of information in a government in which the Afghan leader is often seen as having a limited grasp of developments, according to current and former U.S. officials. – Washington Post

In a sign of his growing frustration with U.S. policy, Afghan President Hamid Karzai said Thursday that President Obama's timeline for withdrawing troops was aiding insurgents and also suggested that the United States must do more to force Pakistan to stop supporting the Taliban. – Washington Post

The surge's architect, Gen. David Petraeus, is now in charge in Afghanistan. With the final combat units from President Barack Obama's Afghanistan troop buildup arriving now, Gen. Petraeus has begun conducting a great experiment to discover whether the Iraq surge tactics will work there, too. – Wall Street Journal

Central America

Central America is struggling to contain rising violence as powerful Mexican drug cartels, facing an escalating government crackdown at home, expand southward and intensify operations in neighboring nations. - Reuters

North Korea

China kept silent on Friday about a reported visit by North Korea's secretive leader, Kim Jong-il, that analysts say appears intended to line up Beijing behind his dynastic succession plans. - Reuters

An American activist imprisoned since January in North Korea was released early Friday and permitted to return to the United States, following a rescue mission by former president Jimmy Carter. – Washington Post

North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il traveled to northeastern China—his second trip in four months to Pyongyang's chief ally—to visit a school attended by his father, in a symbolic move that appeared aimed at solidifying plans for his own succession. – Wall Street Journal

Kim Jong-un, the expected heir to the North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, will appear next month at a rare meeting of senior government officials. It will be keenly watched by the international community for signs of how the transfer of power is unfolding. – The National

Russia

President Dmitry Medvedev's bill to reform the country's notoriously corrupt police force points in the right direction but faces major changes as it undergoes unprecedented public debate, lawmakers said Wednesday. – Moscow Times

The extradition of suspected arms smuggler Viktor Bout to the United States could undermine warming ties between Moscow and Washington, a Russian Foreign Ministry official said in an article published on Thursday. - Reuters

This summer Russians faced several state attempts to "filter" (selectively block) websites. And as in many other things, Russia has gone its own way with a slightly more complicated technique: regional filtering. – Economist

Douglas Southgate writes: Poor wheat harvests in Russia and Ukraine, along with devastating wildfires in Russia, have resurrected fears of a global food crisis. Some have blamed global warming for inducing a severe drought. But the real blame rests with poor agricultural performance over the long term in a region still hampered by communist experimentation. To react by banning exports, as Moscow has done and Kiev is considering, would be counterproductive. Combined with restrictions on the use of modern agricultural technologies imposed in the European Union and being proposed in the U.S., such bans really could lead to a global food crisis. – Wall Street Journal

FPI Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork writes: The jailing of Ponomarev and Schneider tells other Russians not to get involved in speaking up for their rights, and not to oppose the government.  The decision not to jail Nemtsov tells the U.S. and other democracies that there can be limits to what Moscow does…President Obama could, by stepping briefly in front of a microphone, let Medvedev and Putin know that the policy of the “reset” will not cause him to overlook these and other moves against democracy and human rights activists. – Weekly Standard Blog

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev ordered the government Thursday to suspend the clearing of a centuries-old oak forest on the edge of Moscow for construction of a toll road, a rare nod to grassroots critics who have fought the project for years. – Wall Street Journal

The leader of the United Russia party's youth wing is quitting amid criticism that his organization not only failed to shine during this summer's devastating wildfires but found themselves mired in scandal for making a fake video of members fighting blazes. – Moscow Times

Iran

The Iranian government says it will restrict the number of students admitted to humanities programs at universities, RFE/RL's Radio Farda reports.  The announcement…follows criticism of humanities studies last year by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He called the humanities a field of study that "promotes skepticism and doubt in religious principles and beliefs," and that it was worrying that almost two-thirds of university students in Iran were seeking degrees in the humanities. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Michael Weiss writes: At twenty-six, [Shiva Nazar] Ahari represents the youth generation of dissidence that ought to be supported and encouraged by the U.S. government, which, under this administration, has taken a quiescent attitude toward the victims of Iran’s repression. Not even cynics can find fault with Ahari’s activism. She’s clearly pro-West and philo-American and, unlike other senior members of the Green Revolution, she’s never lobbied on behalf of a return to the theocratic first principles of the Islamic Republic.  Since Ahari could scarcely find herself in worse circumstances, it would be nice if President Obama spoke her name in public as a belated pledge of solidarity. At the very least, it might afford her a bed to sleep in at night. – The Weekly Standard Blog

Iran has stockpiled enough low-enriched uranium for 1-2 nuclear arms but it would not make sense for it to cross the bomb-making threshold with only this amount, a former top U.N. nuclear official was quoted as saying. - Reuters

Venezuela

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Thursday mocked rumors that he was suffering from cancer as wishful thinking by his "squalid" enemies - Reuters

Venezuelan authorities found four tonnes of cocaine buried on a ranch on Thursday after stopping a plane presumably on its way from Mexico to pick up the illegal drug haul, state media said - Reuters

Japan

Ichiro Ozawa has for two decades been the kingmaker of Japanese politics, never the king. Now, in the twilight of his career, the 68-year-old lawmaker has his best chance ever to become prime minister. Yet his surprise bid for the post could mean more turmoil, paralysis, and public disaffection for the dysfunctional system he has spent years pledging to fix, further undermining the government's ability to address a deepening economic mess. – Wall Street Journal

Even by the standards of a country that has spent 20 years fretting about its economy, these are especially worrisome times in Japan. Several recent benchmarks - a succession of bad and worse news - have prompted calls for rare government intervention – Washington Post

Lebanon

If Lebanon requests help in modernising its poorly armed military, Iran is willing to help supply weapons and training, according to a top Iranian defence official quoted by a state-run news service – The National

Somalia

Hundreds of Somalis fled from Mogadishu on Thursday as fighting between hardline Islamist insurgents and government troops entered a fourth day with both sides claiming advances. - Reuters

Yoweri Museveni writes: The search for peace and stability in the Horn of Africa is not just a Somali or even an African issue; it is at the heart of the global war against extremism. African nations have sent their sons and daughters to Somalia to protect a local peace process, but also to defend the global interest. It is critical that the entire world come together to support these efforts to restore the great Somali nation and deny terrorists a base from which to threaten the world. – Foreign Policy

Caribbean

The spectacle of [Wyclef] Jean's candidacy, which brought a moment of verve to the presidential election campaign, dissipated into a vacuum.  Now, no one seems to know what's next, whether Jean will stay in the picture, and if not, what candidate may win the support of Haiti's vast dispossessed base. – Los Angeles Times

India

As the death toll mounts in this summer of discontent in the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir, government planners are turning to an old standby in their bid to calm the storm: jobs. – Los Angeles Times

Middle East

Contentious parliamentary elections, in which the Sunni governing family could lose some power to the restive Shiite majority, are scheduled for Oct. 23. Bahrain’s rulers worry that tensions between the West and Iran could provoke instability here, partly because of the close ties between the Shiites and Iran, and partly because of the American naval base, though Bahrain has said it would not allow any attack on neighboring countries from its soil. – New York Times

Pakistan

The Pakistani Taliban called the presence of foreign relief workers in this flood-ravaged country “unacceptable” on Thursday and suggested that militants could carry out attacks against members of aid groups. – New York Times

Even as Pakistani and international relief officials scrambled to save people and property, they despaired that the nation’s worst natural calamity had ruined just about every physical strand that knit this country together — roads, bridges, schools, health clinics, electricity and communications. – New York Times

As eight million Pakistanis desperately await life-saving humanitarian aid amid devastating floods, the powerful military is reminding them of their own government’s inability to tackle the disaster. It is a media campaign that risks undermining the country’s shaky democracy. – The National

Josh Rogin reports: Alarm bells went off in Washington Thursday when the Pakistani media reported that USAID chief Rajiv Shah had visited a relief camp run by a group associated with terrorists. But according to the aid agency, that's simply not the case. – The Cable

Cuba

The cash-strapped Cuban government will allow foreign investors to use state-owned land for up to 99 years in a change that is likely to bring developments of luxury golf courses to the communist island. - Reuters

Jose Cardenas writes: Clearly, fussing about with Cuba policy at this point sends the wrong message to the regime, the Cuban people, and our true friends in the region. What changes are needed today are in the Castro regime's relationship with the Cuban people. Let's hope the congressional recess passes without any unnecessary U.S. policy moves that serve only to divert the focus to Washington, instead of Havana, where it belongs. – Shadow Government

Central Asia

A major international manhunt is under way after dozens of enemies of the Tajik state broke out from prison this week, but you wouldn't know it from the official reaction.- Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

The recent ethnic violence in southern Kyrgyzstan has President Islam Karimov’s administration in Tashkent worried about the possibility of ethnic unrest in Uzbekistan. To make sure ethnic passions remain in check, Uzbek leaders have launched a wide-scale propaganda campaign. But just in case the government message doesn’t get through, officials are beefing up the Central Asian nation’s already formidable security forces. - EurasiaNet

A prominent golden statue of Turkmenistan’s former dictator has been taken down in a move further eroding the personality cult around the late Central Asian leader. - Telegraph

Iraq

Seven years after the U.S.-led invasion, Iraq's petroleum industry shows signs of living up to the potential that American planners hoped for at the start of the military operation, a potential boost to the war-ravaged country's economic recovery. – Wall Street Journal

Retired U.S. Army Col. Pete Mansoor invested nearly three years of his life deployed in Iraq, a period he calls the defining experience of a 26-year military career. But as the combat mission there officially ends, he says he doesn't feel like celebrating. – Wall Street Journal

As the U.S. declares an official end to its combat mission in Iraq on Tuesday, having cut its troops to fewer than 50,000, the outlook for the country is better than it was three years ago. And yet Amil, like the rest of Iraq, is watching with mixed emotions. In addition to hope, there is anger, disappointment at what the U.S. has achieved and a sense of plunging into the unknown. – Wall Street Journal

The withdrawal of American combat troops from Iraq will not correlate to a reduction in flights of unmanned aircraft, and in fact the flight hours will rise, according to U.S. Army officials speaking at the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International conference in Denver. – Defense News

Egypt

Businessman and head of Wafd political party, Sayed Badawi has concluded the acquisition of Egypt's biggest opposition and most outspoken newspaper, Al Dustour. – Babylon and Beyond

Colombia

A U.S.-Colombia military basing agreement that was blocked last week by Colombia's highest court is not likely to be renegotiated, Colombian officials told The Washington Times on Thursday. – Washington Times

United Kingdom

Britain's largest defense industry organization wants Prime Minister David Cameron to clarify the government's position on funding the replacements for Britain's Trident nuclear missile submarines. – Defense News

Britain faces a new wave of attacks from poorly trained but highly motivated homegrown militants, as the al Qaeda threat shifts from big, sophisticated bomb plots to acts by individuals, a report said on Friday. - Reuters

Analysis:  Drastic government spending cuts to tackle a huge budget deficit could leave Britain at greater risk of attack from militants if the security services are hit too hard. - Reuters

Israel

Palestinians torched half a dozen vehicles in East Jerusalem on Thursday and threw stones and firebombs at Israeli police after Jewish settlers approached a mosque, local residents and police said. - Reuters

Martin Indyk writes:  Now that President Obama has finally succeeded in bringing the Israelis and the Palestinians back to the negotiating table, the commentariat is already dismissing his chances of reaching a peace agreement. But there are four factors that distinguish the direct talks that will get under way on Sept. 2 in Washington from previous attempts — factors that offer some reason for optimism. – New York Times

Canada

Canadian authorities said they found and foiled a terrorist bomb-making plot by three men here—one allegedly with links to the conflict in Afghanistan and another, a pathologist who auditioned for the TV show "Canadian Idol.'' – Wall Street Journal

Australia

Tony Abbott has been accused of "dicing with death" after the country's inconclusive polls by refusing to submit details of his policy costings despite accusations there is a £450 million "black hole" in his budget. - Telegraph

Australia's opposition leader denied on Friday he was maneuvering to force the country back to the ballot box after a weekend election delivered a hung parliament, with independents holding the balance of power. - Reuters

Mexico

President Felipe Calderon proposed sweeping new measures Thursday to crack down on the cash smuggling and money laundering that allow Mexican cartels to use billions in U.S. drug profits to enrich their criminal organizations. – Washington Post

This week's massacre of 72 Central and South American migrants in Mexico highlights a paradox the government here doesn't like to talk about: While it complains about the treatment of its own undocumented workers in the U.S., Mexico can be a far worse place to be an illegal migrant. – Wall Street Journal

Tijuana's secretary of public security has chased out major drug traffickers, purged his force of corrupt cops, and helped set the stage for the return of investment and tourism. It may not be enough to save his job. Instead, Julian Leyzaola may fall victim to partisan politics. – Los Angeles Times

Mexican troops fanned out in the remote countryside near the Texas border on Thursday as they hunted the perpetrators of the worst massacre in the country's escalating drug war. - Reuters

Southeast Asia

Thai police have charged dozens of royalist “Yellow Shirts”, half of them with terrorism offences, over the seizure of two Bangkok airports in 2008, a spokesman for the movement said. – The National

Defense

Pentagon officials will announce no further military facility closures or other major budget-cutting proposals until they unveil the 2012 defense budget in early February, says DoD comptroller Robert Hale. – Defense News

As Pratt & Whitney wraps up final ground tests on the short-takeoff-and-vertical-landing version of its F135 engine for the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter, company executives continue to fire shots at the GE-Rolls Royce team fighting to keep its alternative JSF engine program alive. – Defense News

Indonesia

Islamic militants based in Indonesia's Aceh province worked with a fugitive suspected of planning the Bali bombings in an effort to unite various militant networks, court documents tabled on Thursday showed. - Reuters

Yemen

Following six days of fierce fighting, the interior ministry announced on Wednesday that the Lawdar district in Abyan province had been cleared of al Qa’eda operatives. The defence ministry claimed secessionists were fighting alongside the Islamist extremists during the clashes, repeating government claims that the two groups have been working together. – The National

Yemeni forces do not need foreign parties to take the lead in the crackdown on al Qaeda, an official said on Thursday, responding to reports that the U.S. may increase strikes on the militant group's Yemen wing.- Reuters

Germany

Germany's defense minister plans drastic troop cuts to slash government costs but his bid to end conscription threatens to blow open a damaging rift in Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling coalition. - AFP

Europe/Russia

Denmark has turned down a NATO request to send F-16 fighters to Afghanistan as it believes it has done enough for the international military mission there, the foreign minister said Thursday. - AFP

The War

The Obama administration has shelved the planned prosecution of Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, the alleged coordinator of the Oct. 2000 suicide attack on the USS Cole in Yemen, according to a court filing – Washington Post