FPI Overnight Brief: August 26, 2010

Australia

A conservative political leader has rejected key demands from three independent lawmakers who are likely to decide which party forms Australia's next government after indecisive elections. Liberal Party leader Tony Abbott, who heads the conservative opposition coalition, said Thursday that he would not allow the Treasury Department to analyze what impact his election promises would have on the national budget – Associated Press

Australia's next minority government will be under pressure to retain a proposed mining tax, with three out of four independent and Green MPs who hold the balance of power saying they supported the controversial tax. - Reuters

On the main streets and byways of Bob Katter’s outback Queensland electorate, everyone knows the man in the 10-gallon cowboy hat. But in the rest of Australia, the lawmaker who could cast a deciding vote in Australia’s cliffhanger election is virtually unknown. – New York Times

Julia Gillard was seeking to "trash the Westminster system" in a desperate bid to form minority government by seeking to hand over sensitive government information to independents, Liberal frontbencher Andrew Robb said today. – The Australian

[Tony Abbott’s Liberal-National] Coalition has won Hasluck and Brisbane, the latest AEC figures show, taking its likely seat tally to 73 [of 150]. – The Australian

China

A former assistant minister of public security linked to a major corruption case in China has been given a suspended death sentence for taking more than $1 million in bribes over six years, the Chinese news media reported Wednesday. – New York Times

The U.S. has announced the sale of new radar upgrades for Taiwan's Indigenous Defense Fighter (IDF). The announcement came during a two-day tri-service military exercise in southern Taiwan from Aug. 24-25. – Defense News

Goldman Sachs & Co., reviled in the U.S. for its role in the financial crisis, is now getting hammered in the world's No. 2 economy with a sensationalist new book accusing the investment bank of trying to destroy China. – Associated Press

Michael Mazza writes:  It seems that the White House wishes to avoid an open, honest, and public debate about China’s military modernization and intentions in Asia. Such a debate might make it more difficult for the administration to pursue a cooperative approach to relations with Beijing. - National Review Online

Four people have been detained for a deadly attack on Chinese military police last week in the far western region of Xinjiang, state media reported on Wednesday. - Reuters

Japan

Ichiro Ozawa, a scandal-ridden power broker, announced a surprise bid to challenge Prime Minister Naoto Kan's hold on power, threatening to split the ruling party and delay the government's response to the country's mounting economic woes.  Mr. Ozawa, often cited among the most influential politicians in Japan in recent decades, told reporters early Thursday he has decided to run in the Democratic Party of Japan's internal election on Sept. 14, when its lawmakers and supporters choose a new leader, and by default, prime minister. Mr. Kan is seeking re-election to the position, which he took less than three months ago. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Iraq

President Obama will deliver a prime-time Oval Office address Tuesday about the drawdown of troops in Iraq. – The Hill

Con Coughlin writes: Now is the time for Washington to hold its nerve and see the job through to the end, rather than reverting to the cut-and-run strategy that Mr. Obama appears to favor, a policy that could have serious implications not just for America's future relations with Iraq but also for its approach to other security challenges. For if Mr. Obama can order the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq in its hour of need, what's to stop the president from pursuing the same course of action in Afghanistan? – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

At least 61 people were killed and 219 wounded in coordinated bombings across Iraq over a three-hour span Wednesday morning. – Washington Post

As the White House eagerly highlights the departure of U.S. combat troops from Iraq, the small army of American diplomats left behind is embarking on a long and perilous path to keeping the volatile country from slipping back to the brink of civil war. – Washington Times

Somalia

Katherine Zimmerman writes: Despite al-Shabaab’s repeated victories over the TFG and pro-government forces, little has been done to reinforce the Somali government’s position. The AMISOM troop level is below that allowed for in its mandate — and even if the full 8,000 troops were to be deployed to Mogadishu, the troops do not have the authority to conduct offensive operations against al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab, which has the capacity to strike internationally, cannot be permitted to strengthen its position in Somalia, and the international community should provide enough support to ensure the survival and the success of the TFG. – The Corner

One day after a bloody siege by al Shabab militants, Somalia’s beleaguered government was clinging for control of a few small pockets of the shell-shocked capital, Mogadishu. – The National

Russia

An investigation has been opened into the violent dispersal by police of opposition protesters in St. Petersburg on July 31, police officials in the city told journalists, RFE/RL's Russian Service reports – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

A Russian court on Wednesday sent a leading human rights activist and Kremlin critic to jail for three days for taking part in an unsanctioned protest demonstration in Moscow on Sunday, one of the organizers of the protest said. - Reuters

Fighter jets were scrambled to intercept two Russian bombers in the Arctic as they approached Canadian airspace on the eve of a visit from Canada's prime minister to observe an Arctic military exercise, a spokesman for the prime minister said Wednesday. – Associated Press

The specter of Kaliningrad is haunting the Kremlin.  When an estimated 10,000 antigovernment protestors took to the streets in Russia's Western exclave early this year, it deeply spooked the ruling elite who worried it could be a harbinger for the country as a whole. – RFE/RL’s Power Vertical blog

City Hall closed Triumfalnaya Ploshchad on Wednesday for the construction of a 600-car underground parking garage, leaving a popular venue for opposition rallies inaccessible for the next two to three years.  But the opposition insisted that an Aug. 31 rally would go forward and invited the gay community to join. – Moscow Times

Afghanistan

The International Security Assistance Force claimed today that the high tempo of operations against the Taliban over the past three months has put a dent in morale among the Taliban ranks. Also, ISAF provides an estimate on the number of Taliban leaders and fighters killed and captured ("365 insurgent leaders and 2,386 fighters") over the past 90 days – Long War Journal

[In Afghanistan], there won’t be, according to the head of Marine operations, anything like the Iraqi “Awakening” that brought the Sunnis onto the side of what we think of as the righteous and fundamentally reordered the country’s security situation and politics. – DoD Buzz

President Nicolas Sarkozy declared on Aug. 25 that French forces will remain in Afghanistan for as long as they are needed there and enjoy the support of the Afghan people. - AFP

U.S. plans to begin drawing down forces in Afghanistan from next July are "invigorating" insurgents, Afghan officials said on Wednesday, agreeing with a blunt assessment given by the top U.S. Marine. - Reuters

The aide to President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan at the center of a politically sensitive corruption investigation is being paid by the Central Intelligence Agency, according to Afghan and American officials. – New York Times

Defense

The overwhelming majority of Marines oppose sharing sleeping quarters with openly serving gays and lesbians, an obstacle if Congress lifts the ban on gays in the military, the top Marine said Tuesday. – Washington Post

The U.S. Army will delay its Ground Combat Vehicle (GCV) program, cancelling the current Request for Proposals and issuing a new one in about two months, DoD officials said Aug. 25. – Defense News

As the U.S. Defense Department looks for ways to save billions of dollars each year, service contracts, which make up more than half of the U.S. Army's contracting dollars, will be targeted, according to a senior Army official. – Defense News

Middle East

One of Bahrain’s main opposition parties yesterday announced it will boycott the country’s parliamentary election and called for reform of the island kingdom’s political system. – The National

A Sri Lankan housemaid has returned home from Saudi Arabia with 24 nails embedded in her body after allegedly being tortured by her employer, according to officials - Telegraph

Two of the biggest opposition players in Egyptian politics have joined forces as unofficial campaigning kicks off for parliamentary polls later this year—though neither will be on the ballot.  Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog and Egypt's most prominent advocate for political change, has quietly joined forces with the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist group that is officially banned but tolerated here. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Mexico

The bullet-pocked bodies of 72 people, believed to be migrants heading to the United States who resisted demands for money, have been found in a large room on a ranch in an area of northeast Mexico with surging violence, the authorities said Wednesday. – New York Times

Stashing cash in spare tires, engine transmissions and truckloads of baby diapers, couriers for Mexican drug cartels are moving tens of billions of dollars in profits south across the border each year, a river of dirty money that has overwhelmed U.S. and Mexican customs agents – Washington Post

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces rising pressure from members of his government, including within his own Likud party, to reject any compromise with the U.S. and the Palestinians to extend a building moratorium in the West Bank. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

The resumption of Middle East peace talks has been dismissed by the Hamas leader, Khalid Meshaal, as nothing more than a public relations exercise, designed to help the US president in the run-up to mid-term elections and polish Israel’s tarnished image after its assault on an aid flotilla. – The National

Dozens of men believed to be plainclothes Palestinian security personnel broke up a gathering of activists opposed to new Mideast peace talks on Wednesday, reflecting the Palestinian leadership's sense of vulnerability as it prepares to launch negotiations with Israel next week. – Associated Press

Israel, facing new scrutiny at the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency for its assumed atomic arsenal, lobbied the agency's visiting director on Wednesday to regard Iran as the region's real proliferation risk. - Reuters

George Will writes: The biggest threat to peace might be the peace process -- or, more precisely, the illusion that there is one. The mirage becomes the reason for maintaining its imaginary "momentum" by extorting concessions from Israel, the only party susceptible to U.S. pressure. Israel is, however, decreasingly susceptible. – Washington Post

Bruce Riedel writes: The era of Israel’s monopoly on nuclear weapons in the Middle East is probably coming to an end. Israel will still have a larger arsenal than any of its neighbors, including Iran, for years if not decades. It will face threats of terror and conventional attack, but it already faces those. With American help it can enhance its deterrence capabilities considerably. It has no reason to lose its self-confidence. But to avoid the potential for all-out war not only between Israel and Iran but also between the United States and the Islamic Republic, Washington needs to act now. Only by enhancing Israel’s nuclear capability will America be able to strongly and credibly deter an Israeli attack on Tehran’s facilities. – The National Interest

United States of America

The latest U.S. government document posted by WikiLeaks is marked "secret," but it contains no new revelations, startling or otherwise. It's a CIA memo that reads like the musings of a Washington think tank, pondering what might happen if the United States began to be perceived as an "exporter of terrorism," as a result of attacks mounted abroad by homegrown radicals. The conclusion: It would not be a good thing.– Los Angeles Times

India

After a long, bruising political battle, the lower house of India's parliament on Wednesday passed a civilian nuclear liability bill that would pave the way for American and other foreign companies to join a nuclear-reactor building spree. – Los Angeles Times

Indian scientists are developing laser-based anti-ballistic missile systems called Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs). – Defense News

Josh Rogin reports: State Department sources confirm that Alyssa Ayres will soon come on board as deputy assistant secretary in the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, covering U.S. policy toward India – The Cable

Apoorva Shah writes: The barrage of rocks, tear gas, and bullets that have flown through the streets of Kashmir this summer is a consequence of political disillusionment among residents whose land has become a playground for others’ conflicts…The human toll of this summer’s violence in Kashmir should raise the urgency for a comprehensive solution to this six-decade-long problem. But as political solutions within Kashmir become more difficult to reach and détente between India and Pakistan seems daunting in the face of a hidebound Pakistani military and intelligence elite, it’s hard to see any other scenario in the near future other than a Kashmir that continues to burn. – The American

Iran

In a further clampdown on Iran’s cowed political opposition, the authorities have issued a ban on any news relating to the leaders of the protest movement that arose after the disputed re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last year, opposition Web sites reported. – New York Times

Iranian authorities are cracking down, but this time their target isn't political dissidents or drug traffickers. It's dogs. Or rather, pets in general. This week, Ayatollah Nasser Makkarem Shirazi, a powerful cleric, issued a fatwa that was later passed into law banning any advertisements about pets or alluding to the buying, selling or keeping of pets – Babylon and Beyond

French President Nicolas Sarkozy told Iran on Wednesday that failure to reach a credible agreement over its nuclear program would force world powers to mobilize to protect threatened states in the region. - Reuters

Iran showed off an improved domestically made missile on Wednesday, the latest in a string of announcements about new military hardware it hopes will dissuade enemies from attacking. - Reuters

Venezuela

Ruling-party candidates in next month's legislative elections in Venezuela claim the U.S. government is illegally funding Ronald McDonald House and other charities in Venezuela as part of a "dirty campaign" to remove President Hugo Chavez from office. – Wall Street Journal

Venezuelan soldiers fired tear gas at opposition candidates on Wednesday at the start of campaigning for legislative elections that will test support for President Hugo Chavez amid a recession and high crime. - Reuters

Pakistan

The United States is diverting some of its five-year, multibillion-dollar aid package for Pakistan to flood recovery and will reevaluate plans for the remainder because the disaster has dramatically altered the country's needs, the top U.S. aid official said Wednesday. – Washington Post

More rain threatened Pakistan on Wednesday as aid workers pleaded for more help and additional helicopters to reach hundreds of thousands of people isolated by record floods. – New York Times

Hundreds of thousands of refugees from Pakistan's devastating floods are seeking refugee in [Karachi, a] city of 18 million, exacerbating ethnic strife that has already escalated this year and threatens to destabilize the government of President Asif Ali Zardari. – Wall Street Journal

Pakistan has assured the United States it will press its campaign against insurgents inside its borders despite the extraordinary demands the devastating floods have inflicted on its military, U.S. officials said Wednesday. – Associated Press

CTP has produced several maps and charts tracking the floods and its effects across the country to illustrate the magnitude of the disaster, its ramifications on the population and the fight against militant Islamist groups, and to follow the international aid response to the crisis – AEI’s Critical Threats Project

The War

Bill Gertz reports: The FBI is working to track down several hundred American Muslims who traveled to Yemen in recent months and received training there at the hands of the al Qaeda terrorist group, according to U.S. government officials. – Inside the Ring

Georgia

With Russia guarding the borders and erecting military bases here, fear of a Georgian offensive has largely subsided in Abkhazia, which has an official population of just 216,000.  Emerging in its place, however, is a wariness of Russian cultural and economic influence and concern among the Abkhazians that their nascent statelet could be swallowed by its benefactor. – The National

Georgia accused arch-rival Russia on Aug. 25 of deploying sophisticated S-300 missile defense systems in a second breakaway Georgian region, South Ossetia, as well as Abkhazia. - AFP

Ideas

Reuel Marc Gerecht writes: Fortunately, there are powerful moderating forces within the Islamic world. Probably the three most important are: (i) Fallen radical Muslims…As more and more militants renounce their former passions—and we’ve got a rivulet among the Sunnis and an ocean among the Shiites—they develop a critique that translates well across borders and languages…(ii) The spread of democratic ideas throughout the Middle East…Among both Muslim liberals and fundamentalists, it has become the standard for challenging the status quo. Democracy among faithful Muslims is a complex and at times contradictory discussion, but the competitiveness inherent in democratic discussions has had a significant effect on how Muslims in the Middle East conceive of the idea of legitimate government…And last but not least, (iii) America’s wars in the Middle East, but especially the war in Iraq…When George W. Bush invaded Iraq he most certainly did not intend to break Al Qaeda’s back, but this war, more than anything else, has helped to neutralize the appeal of bin Ladenism, at least among the Arabs. – The New Republic

Europe/Russia

The European Union is defying David Cameron’s call for cuts to budgets in Brussels by planning an eight per cent increase in spending over the next three years - Telegraph

North Korea

North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il traveled to northeastern China Thursday—in a second, though still rare, foray outside his country this year—to visit a school attended by his father more than 80 years ago, according to South Korean officials and to local Chinese residents informed of the trip. Kim Jong Eun, Mr. Kim's third son and the heir apparent to lead North Korea, accompanied him, according to media reports in South Korea that couldn't be confirmed. – Wall Street Journal

Josh Rogin reports:  Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter landed in North Korea Wednesday, culminating months of closely held discussions about whether and how to send a high-level political figure on a mission to free an American who has been imprisoned in the cloistered East Asian country since January. – The Cable

Kosovo

When it comes to Kosovo, Serbia and the West occupy alternate realities. Serbia continues to insist Kosovo's independence is not a done deal. The West, with growing impatience, says it is.  Guido Westerwelle, the German foreign minister, will become the latest Western diplomat to urge Serbia to leave its reality behind when he travels to Belgrade on August 26 as part of a three-day Balkans tour. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Southern Africa

The United Nations knew Rwandan rebels were occupying villages in eastern Congo at the time the rebels raped nearly 200 women there, United Nations and aid officers said Wednesday, raising questions about why peacekeepers failed to move to protect villagers. – New York Times

Over the past five years, the authoritarian regime of the Congo Republic has leaned on Washington lobbyists to help with an image problem…n 2006, the Congo Republic launched a Washington lobbying campaign that has now cost about $9 million and involved more than 100 conversations and meetings with members of Congress, their staffs and African advocacy groups, according to lobbying disclosure reports.  – Washington Post