FPI Overnight Brief: August 25, 2010

Middle East

For the first time since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, CIA analysts see one of al-Qaeda's offshoots - rather than the core group now based in Pakistan - as the most urgent threat to U.S. security, officials said.  The sober new assessment of al-Qaeda's affiliate in Yemen has helped prompt senior Obama administration officials to call for an escalation of U.S. operations there - including a proposal to add armed CIA drones to a clandestine campaign of U.S. military strikes, the officials said. – Washington Post

A U.N. prosecutor investigating the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri has urged Hezbollah to hand over more of the information that Hezbollah says implicates Israel. - Reuters

Kuwait has expressed concern over an Iranian nuclear reactor on the opposite shore of the Gulf, saying it fears the fallout from possible leaks, the official news agency reported. – The National

The Popular Coalition for Supporting Gamal Mubarak launched a campaign to promote the nomination of the president's son in next year's elections. But millions of Egyptians have been wondering about the real force behind the movement. – Babylon and Beyond

Iran's Central Bank governor is calling for a cut in imports to boost domestic production as the country grapples with tougher international sanctions over its nuclear program. – Associated Press

Tornado fighter-bombers supplied by the UK to Saudi Arabia are "extremely likely" to have been used in attacks on civilians in Yemen, human rights campaigners said today. - Guardian

FPI Executive Democracy Jamie Fly writes: Bushehr is little more than a diversion from the real challenges (and real threats) of Iran’s ongoing covert nuclear weapons work. The real key to Iran’s nuclear program lies at its facilities at Natanz, Esfahan, at the factories where its centrifuges are being built, and the labs and campuses of its nuclear scientists. Bushehr should remind us, however, that as Iran develops its capabilities in the nuclear sphere, we face an increasingly small window of time before an Iranian nuclear weapon becomes a reality. – Shadow Government

A former high-ranking official in the Turkish military has broken a long-held silence over the government’s suspected involvement in extrajudicial killings, a move applauded by human rights activists. – The National

The U.S. military in Iraq said Tuesday that the number of U.S. soldiers in the country has now fallen below 50,000, a milestone accomplished ahead of the formal end of its combat mission slated for Aug. 31. – Wall Street Journal

Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal said on Tuesday that peace talks between Palestinians and Israel next week could deal a fatal blow to the Palestinian cause - Reuters

At a recent hearing, Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin warned the State Department's top refugee official that Iraqis who had worked for the U.S. military would be in increasing jeopardy during the American drawdown…Fourteen years after that dramatic operation, [Eric] Schwartz is again grappling with the resettlement of Iraqis - this time, as assistant secretary of state for population, refugees and migration. – Washington Post

House Minority Leader John Boehner will deliver a major address on national security and the Iraq war next week on the same day as President Obama. – The Hill

The U.S. troop drawdown in Iraq is a "truly remarkable achievement" and demonstrates President Obama's commitment to responsibly ending the drawn-out conflict, the White House said Tuesday. – Associated Press

U.S. officials believe al Qaeda in Yemen is now collaborating more closely with allies in Pakistan and Somalia to plot attacks against the U.S., spurring the prospect that the administration will mount a more intense targeted killing program in Yemen. – Wall Street Journal

[T]he war is not yet over for the remaining troops, who will continue to put themselves in danger on counterterror raids and other high-risk missions that aren't called combat but can be just as deadly – Associated Press

Suspected Al Qa’eda fighters were fleeing the embattled city of Loder in southern Yemen today after gunbattles and an assault by government forces in which dozens have died, the Yemeni interior ministry said. – The National

Al Qaeda's Iraqi affiliate on Tuesday claimed responsibility for recent attacks on Iraqi judges, saying it was retaliating against death sentences being given to Sunni prisoners. - Reuters

Amnesty International said on Wednesday the United States appeared to have carried out or collaborated with Yemen in attacks that killed suspected al Qaeda militants, violating international law. - Reuters

Two Lebanese men, including a senior member of Hezbollah, were killed in Beirut on Tuesday in clashes between supporters of the Shi'ite militant group and a Sunni faction, security sources said. - Reuters

Iran's parliament is preparing to discuss a bill this week that would allow men to marry additional wives without the consent of their first wife, and would tax dowries. It is called the Family Protection Bill, but it is better-known as the antifamily bill. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Asia

The commandant of the Marine Corps said Tuesday that President Obama’s July 2011 deadline to begin American troop withdrawals from Afghanistan was “probably giving our enemy sustenance.” – New York Times

India is considering deploying its nuclear-capable ballistic missiles in the North-East close to its border with China in an apparent attempt to enhance its military preparedness. – Hindustan Times

A record number of women are running in Afghanistan's critical parliamentary elections next month despite many being inundated with threatening phone calls, including death threats from insurgents. - Guardian

The Afghan Taliban on Tuesday rejected comments by the commander of NATO and U.S. forces that their progress had been reversed, saying attacks were increasing around the capital as well as in their heartland in the south. - Reuters

Afghan and international forces have killed about 40 Taliban fighters east of the Afghan capital as part of operations to provide security ahead of parliamentary elections next month, NATO said Tuesday. – Associated Press

Senior commanders call the fight for Zhari the next step of a wider campaign to pacify Kandahar, the country's second-largest city, and surrounding countryside. They argue that success in Kandahar could lead to overall victory, given that the Taliban's power base is rooted in this region. – Associated Press

Pakistan's worst floods in 80 years are increasing worries in Washington that the disaster will undermine the South Asian nation's political stability and jeopardize U.S. gains across the border in Afghanistan. – Washington Times

The immense floods that have inundated sections of Pakistan and cut roads and railways have also disrupted the main supply lines for United States and NATO military forces in Afghanistan. – New York Times

The US Treasury and the United Nations have sanctioned a top a Qaeda leader who also is Osama bin Laden's son-in-law for serving as a top financial official in the terror organization. – Long War Journal

The commandant of the Marine Corps said Tuesday that Taliban leaders may be misleading their own forces into believing that they only have to keep fighting through the middle of next year, when U.S. troops are slated to begin pulling out of Afghanistan. – Washington Post

At least 800,000 Pakistanis stranded by floods are at risk of dying of starvation or disease unless the United Nations gets more helicopters to urgently reach them, officials said on Wednesday - Reuters

Three $100 million air base expansions in southern and northern Afghanistan illustrate Pentagon plans to continue building multimillion-dollar facilities in that country to support increased U.S. military operations well into the future. – Washington Post

American taxpayers have picked up the tab for billions of dollars worth of shoddy schools, phantom health care clinics and government buildings abandoned before completion in Afghanistan, according to members of a U.S. team that arrived in Kabul on Monday to document the waste and fraud. – Washington Examiner

Declining education standards — as well as reports of growing violence and drug and alcohol use among the young, which some analysts see as related issues — are contributing to fears that Thailand’s dream of joining the ranks of the world’s most developed countries may be getting more and more elusive. – New York Times

A key Senate Republican said Tuesday that a United States victory in the Afghan war means the Taliban and al Qaeda "will never be welcomed." – The Hill

The head of the U.S. Marine Corps said Aug. 24 that a "turnover" to Afghan forces in key southern provinces will not be possible for "a few years," despite a July 2011 deadline for the start of a U.S. drawdown – Defense News

Europe/Russia

Prosecutors in Austria said Tuesday that they had filed a formal indictment against three men in connection with the killing of a Chechen whistle-blower in Vienna last year. But the prosecutors said they did not have enough evidence to charge Chechnya’s leader, Ramzan A. Kadyrov, who had earlier been implicated in the crime – New York Times

President Viktor Yanukovych has called for the Ukrainian Constitution to be reformed in order to strengthen his powers and enable him to push through potentially painful reforms.  Yanukovych's call came as Ukraine marks the 19th anniversary of its proclamation of independence from the Soviet Union. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Dozens of residents of the Siberian city of Barnaul have held a protest rally in support of suspended city Mayor Vladimir Kolganov, RFE/RL's Russian Service reports – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Oceania

Three independent legislators who could hold the balance of power in a deadlocked Australian Parliament met Tuesday behind closed doors to discuss the future shape of government here, as officials continued tallying votes for several seats that were still too close to call. – New York Times

Defense

The U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee soon will convene a session to examine Defense Secretary Robert Gates' plan to shutter Joint Forces Command. – Defense News

Robert Monroe writes: The nuclear deterrent that has kept us safe for over half a century cannot be maintained under the Obama administration's limitations. Unless the Senate supports such nuclear disarmament, it must deny ratification to New Start, which is the first step in that direction. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

The most significant breach of U.S. military computers was caused by a flash drive inserted into a U.S. military laptop on a post in the Middle East in 2008.  In an article to be published Wednesday discussing the Pentagon's cyberstrategy, Deputy Defense Secretary William J. Lynn III says malicious code placed on the drive by a foreign intelligence agency uploaded itself onto a network run by the U.S. military's Central Command. – Washington Post

WikiLeaks, the whistle-blowing website that published secret U.S. military files on the war in Afghanistan last month, said it plans to release a document from the Central Intelligence Agency on Wednesday. - Reuters

Africa

The Spanish government paid al-Qaeda terrorists £5.6 million to free two Spanish aid workers in North Africa after a nine-month kidnapping ordeal, according to reports. – Telegraph

Al-Qaeda-linked Somali militants, including at least two suicide bombers, killed at least 33 people Tuesday when they stormed a hotel in Mogadishu, Somali officials said. – Washington Post

Somali Islamist rebels pushed toward the presidential palace late on Tuesday but were repelled by heavy shelling by government troops, an army officer said on Wednesday. - Reuters

Democracy and Human Rights

A new State Department report on America's human rights record praises many of President Obama's domestic reforms in making the case to the world body for U.S. progress on human rights. – Washington Times

Editorial:  For many years, the cause of human rights has been systematically corrupted by people who cannot distinguish between the rights themselves and their own political hobbyhorses. What this report mainly accomplishes is to make the U.S government an accomplice to that corruption. – Wall Street Journal

Americas

Mexican President Felipe Calderon warned on Tuesday that more bloodshed will likely occur as his government continues its campaign to defeat violent drug cartels. - Reuters

Mexico has purchased Israeli-made unmanned drone aircraft, the government said, which may be used for spotting remote drug fields as officials fight powerful cartels. - Reuters

A ruling by Haiti's electoral council that disqualified hip-hop star Wyclef Jean from running for the presidency is final and cannot be appealed, a council lawyer said on Tuesday. - Reuters

The government moved Tuesday to take over Argentina's only newsprint maker, alleging two leading newspapers illegally conspired with dictators to control the company three decades ago and then used it to drive competing media out of business. – Associated Press

For years, the U.S. government has poured millions of dollars into Colombia's civil war and cocaine-eradication programs, sending thousands of landless peasants into the relative safety of the Ecuadorean jungle…But more and more, Colombia's war — complicated by drug syndicates and arms traffickers — is spilling across this border. And more and more, after a cross-border Colombian military raid on a guerrilla camp here in 2008, the Ecuadorean military has been beefing up its presence.  – Associated Press