FPI Overnight Brief: August 24, 2010

Middle East

The White House faces a delicate messaging task next week as President Obama seeks to bring one foreign engagement to an end while making a new bid for American influence abroad. – Washington Post

Fifty-five years after Egypt first announced its plan to build a nuclear power plant, energy authorities said this month they expect to launch an international tender for the project by the end of this year.  If everything goes according to plan, Egyptian authorities say, they will complete the country’s first nuclear power plant by 2019 in the Al Dabaa region on the Mediterranean coast. The facility is expected to cost about US$4 billion, not including operating costs and interest payments. – The National

Long accused by its critics of playing a spoiling role in Iraq, Syria is working to break the deadlock over forming a new government in Baghdad, according to Iraqi political leaders in Damascus. – The National

Jordan’s civilian nuclear programme is gaining momentum, even as negotiations with Washington stall over a nuclear agreement that would allow US firms to transfer nuclear know-how, equipment and fuel to this nation of 6.4 million people. – The National

The U.S. military said on Tuesday the number of its troops in Iraq had dropped below its August 31 target of 50,000, when the 7-1/2 year U.S. combat mission comes to an official close – Reuters

While the UAE has charged ahead with its nuclear energy programme and Egypt and Jordan are not far behind, another Arab country is quietly putting in place the framework to make it the region’s fourth nuclear-powered state. – The National

Iraq has boosted security at its oil facilities after intelligence indicated al Qaeda groups were planning attacks on pipelines, an official said Monday ahead of an end to U.S. combat operations on August 31. - Reuters

In the second of his special reports from Yemen, Ghaith Abdul-Ahad finds a population for whom the constant danger of tribal feuds is exacerbated by the presence of al-Qaida – Guardian

Tightened international sanctions meant to punish Iran for its nuclear program may be strengthening the country's hard-line elite, as blacklisted firms linked to the powerful Revolutionary Guard manage to circumvent and even profit from the embargo. – Los Angeles Times

Yemeni authorities announced on Saturday that a former Guantanamo detainee who rejoined al Qaeda has turned himself in. Ali Hussein al Taiss was a wanted “al Qaeda element,” according to Saba News Agency, the official Yemeni news service. But al Taiss surrendered to authorities and “expressed his remorse for the period he has spent in joining al Qaeda ranks and showed his readiness to cooperate in serving the country's security and stability.” – Long War Journal

A former Iranian prosecutor who for years was responsible for jailing dissidents and opposition members in the Islamic republic could now be taken to court over the 2009 killings of three opposition activists in a substandard prison, an attorney for one of the victims' families said Monday. – Washington Post

Chris Harnisch writes: The Obama administration’s strategy to combat one of the most dangerous al-Qaeda franchises in the world, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), revolves around the trust it has put in the Yemeni government to kill or capture AQAP leaders, operatives, and facilitators. – The Corner

Iran began mass-producing two high-speed variants of missile-launching assault boats Aug. 23, warning its enemies not to "play with fire" as it boosts security along its coastline. – Defense News

The chief Palestinian negotiator said Monday that he believed reaching an agreement with Israel within a year was “doable,” echoing remarks by the Israeli prime minister a day earlier that a peace agreement would be difficult but “possible.” – New York Times

Iran’s supreme leader has taken the unprecedented step of publicly rebuking his political allies after cracks emerged between the conservative and radical fundamentalists who dominate the government. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who wields ultimate power, issued a “serious warning” to the country’s senior politicians, including President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, to stop the infighting rocking the regime. – Financial Times

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has warned U.S. President Barack Obama that the Palestinians would abandon recently announced direct peace negotiations with Israel if settlement expansion continues in the West Bank. – Wall Street Journal

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has defied calls to fire one of his closest aides and appointed him envoy to the Middle East instead, suggesting that for now he may have the upper hand over his critics. – Reuters

A Saudi Arabian court has ruled that a convicted man's spinal cord should be severed so he is paralyzed as part of the kingdom's Islamic-law-oriented retribution for similar injuries he is said to have inflicted upon another man in a fight. – Washington Times

Richard Weitz writes:  Ultimately, if Iran is intent on building a nuclear weapon, it won’t do it at Bushehr or other facilities like the Natanz enrichment facility that are under IAEA supervision. Instead, it will design and build an atomic bomb at some clandestine facility such as the one exposed last September near Qom. That enrichment complex is remote and deeply buried, shielding it from foreign surveillance satellites and possible air strikes. From an Iranian point of view, this makes much more sense. – The Diplomat

Saudi officials are trying to persuade a man paralyzed in a fight in the conservative kingdom to accept compensation for his injuries and drop a demand that his attacker have his spinal cord severed, a judicial spokesman said on Monday. - Reuters

Vice President Joe Biden on Monday pledged a "long-term relationship" with Iraq even after all U.S. forces leave the country next year. – The Hill

Worries over Mubarak, a U.S. ally who has battled Islamic extremism and kept the peace with Israel, have risen and ebbed for years. The recent tension began in March when the president traveled to Germany and underwent gallbladder surgery and had a growth removed from his intestine…Since then, the president has remained at least fleetingly in the public eye, holding talks from his gold-brocaded chair with world leaders and attending an air force parade. But for many Egyptians the photo-ops are less than convincing as government handlers, rushing about like image consultants and makeup artists, prop up the stately aura of a frail 82-year-old man reportedly angry about the frequent suggestions of his demise. – Los Angeles Times

Investigators from the United Nations Human Rights Council have begun questioning witnesses of Israel's May 31 capture of a Gaza-bound boat in which nine people died, the U.N. said on Monday. - Reuters

President Obama will deliver a major address on the Iraq war next week as the final U.S. combat troops leave the country. – The Hill

Asia

The Obama administration has turned to the Central Intelligence Agency's station chief in Afghanistan to troubleshoot Washington's precarious relationship with President Hamid Karzai, propelling the undercover officer into a critical role normally reserved for diplomats and military chiefs – Wall Street Journal

The embattled government of President Asif Ali Zardari slipped further into crisis after its largest coalition partner called for a military coup to tackle corruption and failures over flooding – Telegraph

The American commander in charge of building up Afghanistan’s security forces said Monday that in the next 15 months he would have to recruit and train 141,000 new soldiers and police officers — more than the current size of the Afghan Army — to meet President Obama’s ambitious goals for getting Afghan forces to fight the war on their own. – New York Times

[Salman] Ahmad says that "as long as the Taliban pursue a strategy of violence, subjugation of women, destroying girls schools, killing musicians," he doesn't see how anyone can "reconcile with that sort of mentality and ideology. The ideology of hate, the ideology of terrorism, has no place in Islam, or anywhere else in the world, and I will continue saying that."  In the years after his precious guitar was smashed by these Taliban forerunners, Ahmad formed clandestine rock bands in Pakistan that would mix Western rock with the mystical music and poetry of Sufism to create a new kind of "Sufi rock." – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

The day after President Hamid Karzai admitted that he had personally intervened to have the aide released, the president’s official spokesman, Waheed Omer, accused international contractors of responsibility for much of the country’s endemic corruption – New York Times

Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari said it could take his country three years or more to recover from devastating floods that have left millions homeless and warned Islamic militants could exploit the crisis. - Reuters

Across Afghanistan, especially in the south and east, increasingly brazen attacks by anti-government groups have cowed many candidates for the 249 lower house seats as well as voters. Afghan election officials announced last week that 938 of the country's 6,835 polling centers will remain closed on election day because of security concerns, leaving 1.5 million of the country's 13 million registered voters unable to participate. – Washington Post

A former North Korean prime minister who was banished three years ago for pushing market-oriented reforms too far has returned to the center of economic policy, leading to speculation that the nation’s leader, Kim Jong-il, might give such proposals a second chance. – New York Times

General David Petraeus, the commander of U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, says the Taliban's momentum in various regions of Afghanistan "has been reversed." – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Josh Rogin reports:  Jimmy Carter is set to travel to North Korea very soon, according to two sources familiar with the former president's plans, in what they characterized as a private mission to free a U.S. citizen imprisoned there. – The Cable

The new Nato commander in Afghanistan has warned of tougher fighting ahead against the Taliban-led insurgency and said there would be no mass exodus of American troops next year. – Telegraph

North Korea has developed 'stealth paint' that absorbs radar waves to camouflage its warships, tanks and fighter jets from foreign reconnaissance satellites and aircraft, according to South Korean reports. – Telegraph

Afghan and Coalition special operatives forces continue to strike at the Taliban's "foreign fighter" network in eastern Afghanistan, with raids in the provinces of Nangarhar and Paktia. During recent raids in the two provinces, 14 Taliban and Haqqani Network fighters were killed, and an undisclosed number were captured. – Long War Journal

A North Korean government official has confirmed to Forbes that the country has not started official YouTube, Facebook or Twitter accounts. – The Hill

Authorities in Afghanistan, which holds elections next month, have started removing road blockades set up in Kabul to guard against attacks by the Taliban and other insurgents. – Reuters

China is moving to soften its image as the world's biggest executioner by removing the death penalty for tax dodging, fiddling receipts and smuggling endangered animals. – Guardian

The U.S. government has provided about $18 billion in civilian and military aid to Pakistan since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks made this country America's most essential, and vexing, ally. Yet according to a Pew Research Center survey released last month, half of Pakistanis believe the United States gives little to no assistance here. – Washington Post

At least 25 inmates, including alleged members of a militant Islamic group, escaped from a maximum-security prison in Tajikistan on August 23 in a series of events that left six guards dead. The fugitives were believed to be headed for the Rasht Valley, a remote area of eastern Tajikistan where Islamic militants have been active in the past. – EurasiaNet

Pakistan's president said Monday that the calamitous flooding that is wreaking havoc across his country could foment public anger and embolden Islamist militants, but he expressed confidence that his government would survive the crisis. – Washington Post

Nepal’s Parliament on Monday failed for a fifth time to select a new prime minister, in a deepening political stalemate fueled by ego and ideology that is alienating the public and crippling the government and the economy in this Himalayan nation – New York Times

Three bomb blasts killed 34 people Monday in northwestern Pakistan, authorities said. Though no one claimed responsibility for the attacks, they came at a time when government officials have been warning that Islamic militants might try to exploit the strain that this summer's catastrophic floods have put on the country's military and government by unleashing a new wave of violence. – Los Angeles Times

Europe/Russia

The seizing of BadB provides a lens onto the shadowy world of Russian hackers, the often well-educated and sometimes darkly ingenious programmers who pose a recognized security threat to online commerce — besides being global spam nuisances — who often seem to operate with relative impunity. Law enforcement groups in Russia have been reluctant to pursue these talented authors of Internet fraud, for reasons, security experts say, of incompetence, corruption or national pride – New York Times

Boris Nemtsov, a former Russian deputy prime minister and top opposition leader, warned his country is being pushed toward revolution by a new overwhelming authoritarianism. – National Post

A Moscow court is today expected to consider whether three prominent members of Russia's political opposition are guilty of “insubordination towards the police.” The absurd case underlines the extent to which freedom of assembly and of expression have been squeezed in today's Russia, even as President Dmitry Medvedev promises greater political competition. The case concerns Boris Nemtsov, perhaps the most credible leader of the opposition and a former deputy prime minister, as well as Lev Ponomaryov, a veteran human rights campaigner, and Mikhail Shneider, a prominent opposition activist. – Economist

President Dmitry Medvedev appointed the head of United Russia's Kaliningrad branch, Nikolai Tsukanov, as the Baltic exclave's next governor on Monday, and Tsukanov immediately promised to tackle sensitive local issues like unemployment and high transportation costs. But a local lawmaker said he would not back the appointment during a largely rubber-stamp confirmation vote in the regional legislature Thursday, saying Tsukanov's leadership capabilities were unknown – Moscow Times

A wave of coordinated attacks swept Dagestan after authorities dealt Islamist militants a heavy blow over the weekend by killing a local rebel leader blamed for the Moscow metro bombings. – Moscow Times

A prominent Chechen commander was pronounced dead by his brother on Monday — less than a day after the brother announced a truce with Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov, whom he had earlier accused of masterminding attempts on his brothers' lives as well as his own. – Moscow Times

Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg on Monday unveiled plans to restructure Germany’s armed forces in what is regarded as one of the most radical military shake-ups since the end of the Cold War. – New York Times

Defense

The long-awaited decision on which Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) design to buy will take a bit longer, the U.S. Navy said Aug. 23 - and that means the announcement of a choice might wait until just before year's end. – Defense News

Efraim E. Diveroli, the brash young Miami Beach arms dealer who landed a $300 million contract with the Pentagon to buy and ship munitions to Afghanistan only to have it unravel in a sprawling criminal case, was in custody again in Florida on Monday, facing new federal charges. – New York Times

Harsh V. Pant writes: It’s safe to conclude that notwithstanding the hype surrounding the NPT Review Conference held in May, the nuclear non-proliferation regime is on its last legs. The reason is simple: the changing balance of power. The most dramatic changes in the global balance of power are taking place in Asia, and it’s there that the epitaph of the non-proliferation regime is being written.  – The National

Oceania

Three seats in Australia's near-deadlocked national election remained up in the air early Tuesday, leaving Australians and investors alike to await a final count that could take 10 days or longer and a government that may not take clear form until November.  The Australian Electoral Commission said Tuesday morning that fewer than 700 votes separate the two main parties vying in each of three constituencies. Those races are expected to turn on the results from mail-in ballots that were being counted starting Monday. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

A handful of independent and Green MPs who will decide the make-up of Australia's minority government were set to begin talks on Tuesday to decide whether to support Labor or the conservative opposition's bid for power. - Reuters

Africa

Two Spanish aid workers held by al Qaeda's North African wing were freed on Monday, ending a kidnapping ordeal in the Sahara Desert that lasted nearly nine months. - Reuters

Two African nations are sending fresh troops to Somalia, in an effort to turn the tide against an insurgency that poses a growing threat to the region. The troop increases come a month after Somali militant group al Shabaab launched a bloody attack on the Ugandan capital, which the militants said was retaliation for Ugandan involvement in Mogadishu. The majority of African Union troops in Somalia—currently about 6,000—come from Uganda and Burundi. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Hundreds of mainly Ugandan troops have arrived in Mogadishu to strengthen an African Union peacekeeping force helping Somalia's government battle Islamist insurgents, an AU official said on Monday. - Reuters

An emergency official in Somalia said Monday that a new outbreak of fighting between Islamist militants and government forces has killed 13 people as a spokesman for Somalia's most powerful militia declared a "massive" war. – Associated Press

Somali gunmen disguised in army uniforms stormed a hotel popular with government officials on Tuesday and a legislator said at least 15 parliamentarians were killed. - Reuters

Striking South African state workers defied a court order to return to work on Monday and police fired rubber bullets to disperse strikers who were blocking entrances to a Johannesburg hospital – Reuters

Americas

Colombia's largest insurgent group asked the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) to help resolve the country's decades-old political struggle in a open letter published Wednesday. – Washington Times

A high-ranking Mexican official at the state-run national electric utility received a Ferrari, a luxury yacht and as much as several million dollars in exchange for lucrative contracts for two U.S. companies, U.S. federal prosecutors allege. – Wall Street Journal