Beyond Af-Pak: The War Against al-Qaeda in Yemen and Somalia

Beyond Af-Pak: The War Against al-Qaeda
in Yemen and Somalia 

Monday, April 19, 2010

Please click on the image to view video from this event.

On the evening of Monday, April 19, the Foreign Policy Initiative and the Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute hosted a panel discussion on al-Qaeda in Yemen and Somalia.  Charlie Szrom, the program manager for the Critical Threats Project moderated the panel; while Chris Harnisch, an AEI Research Analyst; Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, the director of the Center for Terrorism Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; and John Kiriakou, a staffer for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. 

Charlie Szrom opened the discussion by noting that the war against al-Qaeda does not end with the conflict in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region.  The terrorist network is comprised of several regional affiliates that are spread across the world, including al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and al-Shabaab in Somalia.  Though these groups have not achieved as much notoriety as al-Qaeda in Iraq, or the network’s central leadership, the foiled 2009 Christmas Day terror attack underscored the dangerous potential that they have to the American homeland.

Chris Harnisch told attendees that there is a substantial degree of material, personnel, and moral support given from the central leadership of al-Qaeda to the Yemeni and Somali affiliates, and vice-versa.  The Yemeni branch is comprised of 200-500 operatives, primarily from Saudis and Yemenis.  Within the group, there is no consensus on whether President Saleh should be considered an enemy to be targeted or not, and Saleh’s government, likewise, has not pursued the organization with any real determination.  Nevertheless, Harnisch concluded, the US does have a partner in Saleh in the Global War on Terror, even if he is a reluctant and imperfect one.

Al-Shabaab, meanwhile, was described as a cross between al-Qaeda and the Taliban.  The organization does control broad swaths of territory, and sets up shadow courts to enforce its ideology among the Somali people.  However, with nearly 2,500 operatives drawn from throughout the Middle East and Kenya, the organization can and does carry out sophisticated terror attacks against the Somali Interim Federal Government, and has threatened to attack the American homeland.

Daveed Gartenstein Ross emphasized the lack of comprehensive knowledge in the US government pertaining to the situation in Somalia, as federal agencies have had very little contact with Somalis since the 1993 Battle of Mogadishu.  Consequently, very few people in Washington have any in-depth knowledge of the country’s dynamics.  Ross then provided a synopsis of Somali history, from Mogadishu to the aftermath of the 2006 Ethiopian invasion, and culminating in the situation, today. 

Kiriakou dramatically outlined the deteriorating situation in Yemen: the majority of the population lives on less than $2 a day, the country is running out of oil (which supplies 75% of its national income), and its capital, Sana’a, will soon run out of drinking water.  The government focuses on its secessionist insurrection in the South, to the near-exclusion of AQAP, which has already illustrated its desire and capability to strike the United States.   Indeed, 34 known members of al-Qaeda live within two blocks of the American embassy in the capitol.  President Saleh believed that he needs to have an al-Qaeda problem to attract American attention and support for his government, so he was willing to let the problem of AQAP fester.  However, observers believe that he has recognized that AQAP represents a clear threat to his rule, and is slowly casting his lot in with the United States in the Global War on Terror. 

About the Foreign Policy Initiative

FPI is a non-profit, non-partisan, tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. FPI seeks to promote an active U.S. foreign policy committed to robust support for democratic allies, human rights, a strong American military equipped to meet the challenges of the 21st century, and strengthening America's global economic competitiveness. The organization is led by Executive Director Jamie Fly. FPI was founded in 2009 by Robert Kagan, William Kristol, and Dan Senor. Visit our website at www.foreignpolicyi.org for more information.

About the Critical Threats Project

CTP provides the public and policymakers with comprehensive, unique, and objective tracking and analysis of the primary national security challenges faced by the United States. CTP is a project of the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI), a private, nonpartisan, not-for-profit institution that is dedicated to research and education on issues of government, politics, economics, and social welfare based in Washington, D.C.CTP presents the data and analysis necessary to inform policy about the threats posed by al Qaeda and associated violent Islamist groups, as well as threats emerging from the security, political, and economic dynamics in Iran, Pakistan, the Arabian Peninsula, the Horn of Africa, and  the Levant. CTP makes its findings available through two websites, CriticalThreats.org and IranTracker.org; three daily news briefings – the Iran News Roundup, the Pakistan Security Brief, and the Gulf of Aden Security Review (focusing on Yemen and Somalia); and in-depth reports on issues affecting security in the Middle East and U.S. policy. Please visit the Critical Threats Project website at http://www.criticalthreats.org for more information.