FPI Overnight Brief: March 11, 2010

Iran

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates told the royal family of Saudi Arabia on Wednesday that the United States wanted to help build up the kingdom’s military defenses against the growing threat of Iran, but also needed its help in pressing for new United Nations sanctions on Tehran.  Defense officials traveling with Mr. Gates described his comments in meetings here with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Sultan. The officials said Mr. Gates told the Saudis that the United States was committed to protecting its allies in the Persian Gulf from Iran, which Western nations say is building up a covert nuclear arms program.  Saudi Arabia, largely Sunni Arab, has grown increasingly alarmed about the expanding influence of predominantly Shiite Iran, which has benefited from the empowerment of a Shiite majority in neighboring Iraq. As a result, the defense officials said, Riyadh is growing ever more interested in help from the United States to modernize its weapons systems.  The defense officials, who requested anonymity under the rules of a briefing for reporters, said that Mr. Gates did not discuss specific weapons, but that they included a broad range of air, naval and missile defenses.  Over all, one of the officials said, Mr. Gates reassured the Saudis of the American commitment “to trying to stitch together the architecture across the region” against Iranian aggression. – New York Times

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday that Iranian support for the Taliban in Afghanistan is "pretty limited" — so far. Gates noted that he had a public exchange of barbs with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad this week over which country is doing harm in Afghanistan. He had accused Tehran of undermining U.S. and NATO efforts by helping the Taliban. "I have talked about Iran playing a double game in Afghanistan, wanting a good relationship with the Afghan government and wanting to make our lives harder," he said. "At this point the level of their effort I think is not a major problem for us," Gates said. "The level of their support for the Taliban, so far as best we can tell, has been pretty limited. I was just trying to express the hope that it wouldn't get any worse." – Associated Press

The War

Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-MI) writes:  Trying Guantanamo detainees in America and moving them to US prisons are indefensible and dangerous proposals and must be rejected. The American people have made it abundantly clear that they do not want these detainees in our country in any way, shape or form. And with our nation facing a growing budget deficit, now is not the time to build new super-secure prisons in the United States for al Qaeda terrorists when taxpayers already paid to build one at Guantanamo…President Obama, it is time to listen to the American people and face up to the fact that your Guantanamo decision and your attempt to try terrorist suspects in America were both mistakes. You can't trade one mistake for another. – New York Post

A swarm of five US unmanned strike aircraft killed 15 Taliban fighters in Pakistan's lawless tribal agency of North Waziristan. The strike aircraft, likely the Predators or the newer, more deadly Reapers, conducted two strikes against Taliban fighters in the village of Mizar Madakhel near the Afghan border. A volley of four missiles were fired at a Taliban compound in the first strike, killing eight terrorists, AFPThe Kuwaiti News Agency reported that 15 Taliban fighters were killed in both strikes, and that more than a dozen fighters were wounded, some seriously. No senior Taliban or al Qaeda fighters have been reported killed in the attack. US intelligence officials contacted by The Long War Journal would not disclose the target of the attack. Today's airstrike is the second recorded attack in three days, and also is the second this month. The last attack, on March 8, killed five terrorists operating in a compound at a bazaar in Miramshah, the main town in North Waziristan. – Long War Journal

In a strong bipartisan endorsement of the Obama administration’s policy in Afghanistan, the House of Representatives on Wednesday soundly rejected a call to withdraw American troops by the end of the year  After a three-hour debate held to allow antiwar Democrats to air their dissent, the House voted 356 to 65 to reject the withdrawal proposal. Five Republicans joined 60 Democrats in support of pulling out; 189 Democrats and 167 Republicans were opposed.  Although the outcome was never in doubt, debate on the resolution written by Representative Dennis J. Kucinich, Democrat of Ohio, offered a preview of Congressional consideration later this year of the administration’s request for money to pay for operations in Afghanistan.  Under the proposal, Mr. Kucinich would have invoked the War Powers Act to force the withdrawal of American troops within 30 days, or by the end of the year if the president judged that a more rapid departure would be unsafe. – New York Times

Pakistan

Pakistan’s spy chief has been granted an unusual one-year extension in his job, a move that may also pave the way for a longer term for the head of the army, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who is scheduled to step down this year.  The announcement extending the tenure of Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha as director of the spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate, was formally made Wednesday by Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani. But it had been clear for weeks that General Kayani planned to keep General Pasha at his side, and that the weak civilian government would have little choice but to go along with it. The two generals have driven Pakistan’s strategic decisions in the past two years. The likelihood that they would retain their posts represented continuity, at least, in one of Washington’s most complicated, mistrustful and high-stakes relationships with an ally…The two generals have not moved Pakistan from its traditional strategic priorities, retaining India as the archenemy and keeping the Afghan Taliban as proxies against Indian interests in Afghanistan – New York Times

Obama Administration

The U.S. Embassy in Afghanistan, which may soon overtake its counterpart in Iraq as the world's biggest diplomatic mission, is overworked, underappreciated and struggling to meet the demands placed on it by President Obama's new strategy, according to the State Department's inspector general. A report released last week praised the embassy's leaders for "impressive progress implementing the Administration's plans for a massive civilian plus up to support the large increases in assistance programs." The embassy's work last year was particularly notable, the report said, because it took place amid an almost 100 percent turnover in staff, Afghanistan's troubled presidential election and the months-long White House strategy review in the fall. Nevertheless, it said, "Embassy Kabul faces serious challenges in meeting the Administration's deadline for 'success' in Afghanistan." - Washington Post

Danielle Pletka writes:  Don’t get me wrong: I know the president made some courageous choices in both Iraq and Afghanistan. And while many have caviled at his repeated emphasis on America’s exit from the two theaters, rather than underscoring the importance of victory, these are quibbles. But on the “soft” side that was ballyhooed as this president’s hallmark, things are, well, awful…Too many of these problems can be sourced back to the arrogance of the president and his top advisers. Many of Obama’s foreign policy soldiers are serious, keen, and experienced, but even they are afraid to speak to foreigners, to meet with Congress, or to trespass on the policy making politburo in the White House’s West Wing. Our allies are afraid of American retreat and our enemies are encouraged by that fear. George Bush was excoriated for suggesting that the nations of the world are either with us or against us. But there is something worse than that Manichean simplicity. Barack Obama doesn’t care whether they’re with us or against us. – The Enterprise

Iraq

Iraq’s electoral commission is expected to announce partial results of parliamentary elections by Thursday, a United Nations official said, offering an incomplete picture of the vote that will nevertheless provide the broad outlines of the country’s political landscape.  The results were initially expected Wednesday evening, but Ad Melkert, the United Nations special representative in Iraq, said he hoped the results would be released by Thursday. Iraqi officials did not immediately confirm the delay.  “We hope that as soon as possible preliminary results can be made public because Iraqis have the right to know as soon as possible the outcome of their choice of election day,” Mr. Melkert told a news conference on Wednesday.  Party officials have acknowledged that after Sunday’s voting, a relatively small number of seats may separate Iraq’s leading coalitions, a sign that negotiations to form a new government could be protracted. Although the slates of candidates led by Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki and Ayad Allawi, a former interim prime minister, appear to be doing best, officials with a predominantly Shiite Muslim coalition predicted they would come in third and perhaps second. – New York Times

After initially playing down the scope of the violence during Sunday's parliamentary elections in Iraq, the U.S. military has concluded in an internal assessment that at least 37 people were killed in 136 attacks.  U.S. officials have hailed the vote as a milestone event that proceeded with little disruption, and they disputed election-day media reports of widespread violence.  But the military has since concluded that at least 30 of Sunday's attacks, which included bomb blasts, rocket attacks and small-arms fire, killed or wounded people. A U.S. official provided the data to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity because it is at odds with the public statements of senior military officials. – Washington Post

Ideas

The State Department plans to create seven new senior positions to ensure that a public-diplomacy perspective is always "incorporated" in policymaking around the world, as well as to respond quickly to negative coverage of the United States in foreign media. In an ambitious strategy that goes beyond any previous efforts to reach out to other countries, the Obama administration "seeks to become woven into the fabric of the daily lives of people" there, its top public-diplomacy official said Wednesday.  "We must do a better job of listening, learn how people in other countries and cultures listen to us, understand their desires and aspirations, and provide them with information and services of value to them," said Judith A. McHale, undersecretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs.  Ms. McHale presented the administration's strategy, which emerged from an eight-month review of the government's programs in the field, at a hearing of a Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee. She repeatedly used the word "narrative" to describe how the United States is being depicted overseas.  "In this information-saturated age, we must do a better job of framing our national narrative. We must become more proactive and less reactive," she said.  "Increasingly, our opponents and adversaries are developing sophisticated media strategies to spread disinformation and rumors, which ignite hatred and spur acts of terror and destruction. We must be ever-vigilant and respond rapidly to their attacks against us," she added. – Washington Times

Michael Young writes:  Islamist parties have lost momentum throughout the Middle East in recent years. Despite their many differences, all have one problem in common: they offer no persuasive vision for nation-building. In Iraq’s elections last weekend, religious parties lost ground to broad-based “nationalist” lists. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood is divided over how to deal with the state. Hamas has failed in its bid at governing, and its crushing of Fatah in Gaza in 2007 created many enemies. Even Hizbollah, arguably the most successful of the Islamist groups, has dangerously antagonised Lebanon’s Sunnis in recent years, while all it offers to the Lebanese is a prospect of incessant conflict with Israel. Handing Hamas a lifeline now is a terrible idea. It would only increase Syrian and Iranian control over the Palestinians at a time when Mr Fayyad is strengthening autonomous state institutions. It would also indicate that Hamas has succeeded, when the movement has, in fact, systematically undercut Palestinian interests. Hamas may eventually have to be brought into peace talks, assuming that Israel ever makes serious territorial concessions. But that should happen only when the movement’s power is greatly diminished, not a moment sooner. – The National

Nearly fifty retired four- and three-star generals and flag officers called on Congress [yesterday] to fully fund President Obama’s International Affairs Budget request in a letter released by the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition’s (USGLC) National Security Advisory Council (NSAC).  Among the letter’s signatories are the NSAC Co-Chairs, General Michael W. Hagee, USMC (Ret.), Commandant, U.S. Marine Corps (‘03-‘06); and Admiral James M. Loy, USCG (Ret.), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard (‘98-’02). “Our military works hand-in-hand with diplomats and development experts in meeting the challenges and responsibilities we face around the world,” said General Hagee.  “It is critical that our civilian agencies are properly resourced so they can lead key elements of our national security strategy.”…In the letter, the 48 military leaders say the International Affairs Budget is “a fundamental pillar of U.S. national security and foreign policy.” – US Global Leadership Coalition

James K. Glassman writes:  Much of the public diplomacy effort in the past has focused on America's own image, on how Americans are seen by others. But today, in the war of ideas, our core task is not how to fix foreigners' perceptions of the United States but how to isolate and reduce the threat of violent extremism. In other words, it's not about us…A better way to communicate is through the generation of a wide and deep conversation. The U.S. role in that conversation is as facilitator and convener. We generate this conversation in the belief that our views will be heard -- even if U.S. government actors are not always the authors of those views. – Foreign Policy

Europe/Russia

Ukrainian lawmakers formed a new coalition around new President Viktor Yanukovych, and allowed him to consolidate power by quickly approving his choice for prime minister. The election of Mykola Azarov as premier - after he served as Yanukovych's campaign strategist in this year's presidential elections - ends the long-running rivalry between Ukraine's head of state and head of government. Azarov leads the new majority coalition "Reforms and Order," which includes Yanukovych's Party of Regions, the Communists and the party led by parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, formerly allied with the pro-Western "Orange" coalition…Before helping to run Yanukovych's presidential campaign, Azarov was first deputy prime minister when Yanukovych held the premiership between 2006 and 2007. He is seen as a staunch supporter of both Yanukovych and his Kremlin-friendly policies. On Thursday, he pledged to root out corruption and tackle the economic turmoil that has plagued Ukraine during the political wrangling of the past few years. – Associated Press

Ariel Cohen and Owen Graham write: Russian President Dmitri Medvedev traveled to Paris last week for a three-day visit and to launch a new strategic partnership with France. The new Franco-Russian embrace is marked by major arms sales, a space deal, lucrative energy contracts, and greater market access—all under the banner of a blossoming personal relationship between Mr. Medvedev and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. But this rapprochement comes at the price of European security…One can only hope that Mr. Sarkozy will use his apparent leverage to get Moscow on board with tough sanctions on Iran, to counter the dismemberment of Georgia, and to promote Russian rule of law. Paris would also be wise to remember that its gains from Franco-Russian business ties should not come at the expense of European security. That includes the security of France's newest EU brethren, the formerly communist democracies in the East whose adoption of Western ways continues to rankle Moscow. But judging from Paris's warm embrace of Moscow, the future of Russia's expanded clout in Europe has never looked better. – Wall Street Journal (Subscription Required)

Russia's strategic missile forces today launched a three-day drill expected to simulate the use of nuclear weapons, RIA Novosti reported. Russian military personnel would follow procedures in the nation's recently adopted military doctrine for dealing with nuclear and conventional conflict, said strategic missile forces spokesman Col. Vadim Koval. "The SMF are conducting command-and-staff drills on March 10-12 in line with the annual training program," he said. "A total of more than 2,000 servicemen and 150 theater- and tactical-level command-and-control centers take part in the drills," Koval added. The missile forces carried out 11 major drills and two strategic missile test-firings last year, according to RIA Novosti. – Global Security Newswire

Missile Defense

FPI Executive Director Jamie Fly writes:  There is a powerful group of disarmament advocates in Washington that has been opposed to missile defense for years and now includes some of the chief proponents of the president’s disarmament agenda. Currently leading this group is missile-defense skeptic Joseph Cirincione of the Ploughshares Fund, which is bankrolling a media offensive using other organizations — such as the Glover Park Group, Think Progress, and the National Security Network — to advance the administration’s agenda on Capitol Hill and in the press. It seems that “getting to zero” isn’t cheap. Another prominent missile-defense skeptic is Philip E. Coyle, III, a former Pentagon official who has criticized just about every aspect of U.S. missile-defense policy over the last decade. Mr. Coyle has been nominated by President Obama to serve as associate director for National Security and International Affairs in the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House. – The Corner

Defense

Tom Donnelly writes:  [T]he likelihood is that the NPR, maybe even more than the recently completed Quadrennial Defense Review, will be a wet noodle.  The point of balance where the White House’s nuclear abolitionist sentiments meet the Pentagon’s practical assessment of strategic reality is predictable: it would be shocking if there were truly deep cuts below the 1500-warhead level forecast for the Geneva arms control talks with the Russians.  And the media yammering about adjustments to the prospects of a “no first use” doctrine — a secondary issue and a policy that, even if embraced by the White House, could be reversed in the future — suggests an attempt to create a story where there isn’t much else to talk about. The larger story about the review, alas, is that, rather than looking at the very different and certainly more dangerous nuclear future in view, the administration is looking in the rearview mirror, looking at unresolved Cold-War business. – Center for Defense Studies

Americas

Haitian President René Préval pleaded Wednesday for U.S. help plugging a multimillion-dollar budget gap caused by the Jan. 12 earthquake but said he got a cool reception from congressional leaders wary of handing over cash.  Préval, who arrived in Washington on Monday night, said that his government's revenue plunged 80 percent after the earthquake and that the losses would blast a $350 million hole in Haiti's budget this year. "We are facing some urgency now. We are 1 million people living in the street," Préval told reporters and editors at The Washington Post.  The earthquake was the worst natural disaster in the Western Hemisphere in decades, killing more than 230,000 people and destroying much of Port-au-Prince, Haiti's capital and home to one-third of the country's 9 million people. The U.S. government has pledged more than $700 million in disaster aid, part of a flood of international assistance.  Préval said little of that money has gone to his government. For years, the United States and many other donors have preferred to channel funds through the United Nations and other nongovernmental organizations, citing concerns about corruption and bureaucratic dysfunction. – Washington Post

China

Willy Lam writes:  China's ongoing tussles with the United States over issues including Taiwan, Tibet and trade are in a sense nothing new. For more than two decades, Sino-US relations have periodically gone through rough patches over these and related causes of disagreement. What is new is China's much-enhanced global clout in the wake of the world financial crisis, which is coupled with a marked decline in America's hard and soft power.  More importantly, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership is gunning for a paradigm shift in geopolitics, namely, new rules of the game whereby the fast-rising quasi-superpower will be playing a more forceful role. In particular, Beijing has served notice that it won't be shy about playing hardball to safeguard what it claims to be "core national interests". – Jamestown Foundation

David Ignatius writes:  The rise of China is one of the blessed miracles of modern economic history. But Chinese leaders know they cannot repeal the economic laws of gravity. As the economist Herbert Stein observed decades ago, "If something is 'unsustainable,' that means it won't be sustained." That is surely true with the unbalanced, export-led growth that has powered China's ascent…For a country addicted to export-led growth, transitioning to a sustainable economy won't be easy. People who assume that an ever-expanding China will inexorably replace America as the world economic superpower should take a close look at the numbers. – Washington Post

Middle East

Jackson Diehl writes:  Over the years U.S. envoys from Baker to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have learned that the trick is to sidestep such broadsides, expressing disapproval without allowing the toxic settlement issue to take center stage and derail peace negotiations. After all, most Israeli settlement announcements, including this one, are pure symbolism: No ground will be broken anytime soon, and even if the homes are eventually constructed they won’t stand in the way of a Palestinian state. By that measure, Biden flunked. Interrupted in the middle of what was supposed to be a day of love-bombing Israelis with speeches and other demonstrations of U.S. support, he kept Netanyahu and his wife waiting for 90 minutes into a scheduled dinner before issuing a statement that harshly criticized the interior ministry’s announcement. Biden chose to use a word -- “condemn” -- that is very rarely employed in U.S. statements about Israel, even though he and his staff knew that Netanyahu himself had been blindsided by the settlement announcement. So much for love bombs. - PostPartisan

Arab League chief Amr Moussa said on Wednesday that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas had told him he would not enter indirect talks with Israel, only days after the Palestinian side had agreed to the contacts. The about-turn puts on hold U.S. efforts to bring together Israel and the Palestinians in so-called proximity talks. The proposed talks, the Palestinian chief negotiator said this week, were a "last chance" to keep the Middle East peace process alive. The decision came after Israel announced on Tuesday it would erect 1,600 settler homes in an area of the occupied West Bank it annexed to Jerusalem. Abbas had only agreed to the talks on condition that Israel imposed a Jewish settlement freeze. "The Palestinian president decided he will not enter into those negotiations now ... the Palestinian side is not ready to negotiate under the present circumstances," Moussa told a news conference following an urgent meeting of Arab delegates at the Arab League headquarters in Cairo. - Reuters

Horn of Africa

Islamist insurgents and government forces battled for a second day in the Somali capital after medical officials Thursday said 23 people had already been killed. Insurgents attacking from the north on Wednesday reached within a mile (2 kilometers) of the presidential place in the heart of the city before being beaten back with the help of African Union peacekeepers in tanks, residents said. The exchange of gunfire and mortars made it impossible to get an accurate death toll for Thursday's fighting because ambulances could not get to the wounded and dying….The insurgents, the government and the peacekeepers have all been criticized by human rights groups for indiscriminately firing into and shelling residential neighborhoods – Associated Press

Burma

Myanmar's military government has allowed the party of detained Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi to reopen regional branch offices that have been closed since May 2003, a party spokesman said on Thursday.  "So far as we have heard, about 100 branch offices have been reopened across the country, effective Wednesday," said Nyan Win, a spokesman for the National League for Democracy (NLD). The government closed down NLD branch offices after an attack on Suu Kyi's convoy by pro-regime elements on May 30, 2003. Scores of NLD followers were killed, according to her supporters. Nyan Win gave a guarded welcome to the government's move. "Yes, it's a positive step," he said. "I think they want us to take part in the election, but we still haven't made up our mind about this. We still need to talk it over among the top leaders, including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi." - Reuters