FPI Overnight Brief: March 9, 2010

Iran

In the Iranian desert, at a sprawling industrial site ringed by barbed wire and antiaircraft guns, a shift in the enrichment of uranium is producing global jitters because it could shorten Iran’s path to the acquisition of nuclear weapons.  It is also illustrating one of the peculiarities of uranium enrichment, a version of the rich getting richer, really fast. The tricky process accelerates as it moves ahead. “The higher the concentration, the easier it gets,” said Houston G. Wood III, a professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering at the University of Virginia who specializes in nuclear enrichment. The process is, as scientists like to say, nonlinear…A practical illustration of nonlinearity is that Iran — or any other nuclear hopeful — needs increasingly few centrifuges to make uranium 235 increasingly potent. For instance, one industry blueprint features 3,936 centrifuges for enriching up to 4 percent, 1,312 centrifuges to 20 percent, 546 centrifuges to 60 percent and just 128 centrifuges to 90 percent — the level needed for a bomb. The reason is that “you’re moving a lot more material at lower levels of enrichment,” said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a private group in Washington that tracks nuclear proliferation and disclosed the blueprint. “It’s the reduction of the material” that makes the process gradually easier. – New York Times

Michael Jacobson writes:  In the coming weeks, the United States and its allies will attempt to push additional Iran sanctions through the UN Security Council. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has indicated that "the United States and like-minded countries" could also impose at least some additional sanctions on their own. Although stronger sanctions are certainly needed to deter Iran on the nuclear issue, they alone are unlikely to pressure Tehran into changing its behavior. Just as important are efforts to plug the gaps and loopholes in the current sanctions regime. – Washington Institute for Near East Policy

The Heritage Foundation has prepared 10 policy proposals to undermine the Iranian regime, and bolster the democratic opposition.

Iran said on Tuesday it hoped China would not give in to pressure to agree to new sanctions that the United States and its allies hope to win U.N. approval for over its nuclear program. "China is a great country which enjoys enough power to pursue its own decisions independently without being pressured by America," foreign minister spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said at a news conference in Tehran. "Of course our expectations from such a big country is the same ... to pursue its foreign policies independently and just observe its own national interests," he said, citing Iran's close relations with China. China's Foreign Minister said on Sunday new sanctions on Iran would not solve the stand-off over its nuclear program, which Western powers fear will allow Tehran to develop a nuclear weapon. Iran says it is only interested in electricity. - Reuters

Iraq

Early estimates from a range of Iraqi parties on Monday predicted a coalition led by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki would take the lead in the parliamentary election, though official results were not expected for a few days.  A win by Mr. al-Maliki could signal Iraqis' rejection of the religious parties that have dominated the country since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. The prime minister has been trying to distance himself from his party's religious roots and portray himself as more of a nationalist…Turnout for Iraq's second election for a full parliamentary term was 62 percent of about 19 million eligible voters, the election commission said. That is lower than the last full parliamentary election in December 2005, in which roughly 76 percent of eligible voters turned out…Abbas al-Bayati from Mr. al-Maliki's State of Law coalition said early information from the coalition's representatives showed the coalition's list did well in Baghdad and in the Shi'ite south. Baghdad accounts for 70 seats in parliament. But one seat is mandated as Christian and another for minorities, meaning 68 are up for grabs. The results are likely to produce three other main blocs. Following Mr. al-Maliki's coalition are expected to be the former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's Iraqiya alliance and the religious Shi'ite Iraqi National Alliance. It is not clear which of those two will come out ahead.  – Associated Press

Editorial:  President Obama deserves credit for resisting his own calls in 2008 for a quick American withdrawal. U.S. forces are considered by all sides to be honest brokers and guarantors of stability. So it was unfortunate to hear Mr. Obama, with the polls barely closed and no votes counted, promptly declare the election makes it possible that "by the end of next year, all U.S. troops will be out of Iraq. Too much blood and treasure have been spent there to make the mission hostage to a political calendar. The nature of America's engagement will change in Iraq, but it needs to be sustained and robust. Imagine if the GIs had left Germany eight years after World War II or abandoned the DMZ in Korea prematurely….Free Iraq also represents a great U.S. strategic opportunity. As Turkey turns away from Europe (in part after having been turned away) and Iran pushes for regional hegemony, Iraq can now become a strong U.S. ally in the region if we don't abandon the field. A strong presence in Iraq gives the U.S. important leverage against a rogue regime in Tehran bent on acquiring a nuclear weapon. We heard for years that toppling Saddam Hussein was a mistake because it empowered Iran. Now that Iraq is emerging as a unified democracy, the government in Baghdad can be a counterweight to Iran without the brutality and threat to the region that Saddam represented. Even as the number of U.S. troops declines, a sustained U.S. commitment will serve Iraq, the larger Middle East and American strategic interests. – Wall Street Journal

Michael Rubin writes:  If President Obama wishes Iraq to succeed, it is crucial that he gear U.S. policy toward strengthening the system of governance in Iraq, rather than base U.S. relations on personalities. Indeed, if Talabani steps down, he can pave the way for a new generation of leader—perhaps one less tainted by corruption—to take the helm. Talabani can play a crucial role as an elder statesman and, indeed, cap off a career by ensuring a smooth transition while he still can. – The Enterprise

Christian Whiton writes:  Iraq took another major stride Sunday in the elections it held. But the potential benefits to the U.S. from progress there is being squandered by the Obama administration, which remains wedded to a policy of forced estrangement. Rather than engage in vigorous diplomacy to create a partnership with Iraq that could alter the region dramatically for the better, team Obama seems focused instead on having as little to do with Iraq as possible. It still sees Iraq only through the lens of domestic politics, as it did in the 2008 presidential election. Even some Democrats on Capitol Hill are beginning to worry. – Fox Forum

The War

Indonesian counterterrorism forces stormed an Internet cafe and a nearby house on the outskirts of Jakarta on Tuesday, killing three suspected terrorists and arresting two others. Counterterrorism officials said security forces were targeting Dulmatin, a senior operative for Jemaah Islamiyah, the Southeast Asian terrorist network with links to Al Qaeda responsible for a string of bombings in Indonesia, including the 2009 twin bombings of the Marriot and Ritz-Carlton hotels that killed seven people and injured 50.  Dulmatin is also believed to be one of the masterminds of the 2002 Bali nightclub bombings that killed 202 people, mostly foreign tourists…Tuesday’s raid came a week before President Obama is due to arrive in Jakarta for a two-day visit…The United States government has offered a $10 million reward for Dulmatin’s capture.  – New York Times

Walid Phares writes: The confrontation in the sub Indian continent between al Qaeda, the Taliban and their allies on the one hand and the three democracies they target, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, on the other hand must be reevaluated in terms of international cooperation against the Jihadi threat. A regional system should be established to integrate the struggle against all Jihadi forces in the subcontinent. There needs to be a separation between the ethnic and territorial questions from the fight against Terrorism. Once that distinction is made the possibilities of internationalization of counter terrorism will be high. Jihadists based in any country of the subcontinent must not be given legitimacy by any Government on the ground of a local ethnic issue. Jihadi forces must be confronted collectively, while diplomacy and international mediations assist in solving the local problems. The West can help all players in the subcontinent coming under internationalization of the struggle against Jihadi terror. But India has enough international credibility to help the West and other democracies in building an international basis for this counter-Jihadi platform. – Counterterrorism Blog

A man has been brought to the United States from Nigeria to face charges that he provided money to a Somali terrorist group — and that he received military training from that group.  Federal prosecutors in Manhattan unsealed an indictment on Monday accusing the man, Mohamed Ibrahim Ahmed, of conspiring to provide material support to a foreign terrorist organization, Al Shabab, which has declared its intent to harm the United States. Mr. Ahmed, 35, is also charged with providing that support, conspiring to receive training from a foreign terrorist organization, and receiving the training.  Mr. Ahmed was transferred to United States custody by Nigerian authorities on Saturday. He wore dark blue prison clothes during a brief detention hearing on Monday before Debra C. Freeman, a federal magistrate judge in Manhattan. Communicating with the help of an Arabic interpreter, he indicated that he understood the charges against him. He is to be arraigned on Tuesday; a lawyer representing him, Sabrina Shroff, said that he would plead not guilty.  – New York Times

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Monday that recent military offensives against the Taliban in southern Afghanistan had gained momentum but that a reconciliation effort proposed by Afghan President Hamid Karzai was unlikely in the near term to cause senior Taliban leaders to lay down their arms.  Such defections will not happen until senior insurgent leaders begin to "realize that the odds of success are no longer in their favor," Gates said in a joint news conference with the Afghan president.  Karzai has proposed a major conference this spring to begin the process of reconciliation with dissident ethnic and political leaders, including the Taliban…Although Gates seemed less sanguine than Karzai about the immediate prospects for reconciliation, he said that as U.S., Afghan and NATO forces pushed the Taliban out of havens in the south and east, it was likely that some Taliban leaders would feel pressure to switch allegiances and support the Afghan government. – Washington Post

Foreign Policy has produced a summary of recent high-profile Taliban arrests and deaths in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Middle East

Calling Washington’s ties to Israel “unshakable,” Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. opened talks with Israeli leaders on Tuesday, part of a concerted American effort to restart Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and keep Israel focused on sanctions against Iran’s nuclear program rather than unilateral military action.  On a five-day visit to the Middle East, Mr. Biden is also expected to meet Palestinian and Jordanian leaders and give a speech at Tel Aviv University expressing American solidarity with Israel — a theme that was apparent from the beginning of his discussions here.  Mr. Biden met Tuesday with President Shimon Peres and wrote in a guestbook at the president’s residence that “the bond between our two nations has been and will remain unshakable. Only together can we achieve lasting peace in the region.”  In a conversation with Mr. Peres in front of reporters, Mr. Biden reinforced the point, saying: “There is absolutely no space between the United States and Israel in terms of Israel’s security. None.”  Mr. Biden was meeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later. George J. Mitchell, the administration’s Middle East envoy, announced Monday in Jerusalem that Israel and the Palestinians had agreed to start indirect negotiations and that he would be back next week to continue structuring those talks. – New York Times

Elliot Abrams writes:  What has the engagement of Syria actually produced, besides mockery in Damascus? Depression in Beirut, where Sunnis, Christians, and Druze only a few years ago defied Syria, but now see an American policy that appears willing to abandon them. Incredulity in Baghdad, where our willingness to engage Syria while it helps jihadists blow people up in Iraq must seem incomprehensible. Resistance in Jerusalem, which only three years ago blew up a North Korean-supplied nuclear reactor Assad was building along the Euphrates and must see our continuing blindness to Syria’s actual conduct as stubborn—and dangerous. What is to be done? First, the United States should acknowledge that engagement has failed and end it. No more high-level visits, no ambassador, no WTO. If the Obama administration insists on crawling forward, the Senate should not confirm the nominee for ambassador, and Congress should by legislation prevent any further weakening of our economic sanctions against Syria. Second, the United States should loudly and frequently condemn continuing Syrian human rights violations; there are fish in this barrel and we should start shooting them. Third, we should raise in the United Nations Syria’s continuing violations of Security Council resolutions 1559 and 1701 (barring violations of Lebanon’s sovereignty and arms supplies to Hezbollah). None of these steps will change Syrian policy; that will only happen if and when the regime in Iran, Assad’s mainstay, falls. But they will restore to U.S. policy the element of self-respect and respect for facts that is now missing. – The Weekly Standard

Mideast rivals Israel and Syria on Tuesday each announced ambitions to develop nuclear energy, with Israel facing the prospect that its plan could bring new attention to its secretive nuclear activities.  The countries laid out their hopes at an international conference in Paris on civilian nuclear energy…The announcements raise the prospect that the countries' nuclear programs could come under the microscope of international inspectors to ensure that they don't cross the forbidden line into weapons programs. Iran, for example, has come under intense pressure to show its nuclear program is peaceful. Iran and North Korea, whose nuclear program has also drawn international scorn, were not invited to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development conference. – Associated Press

Taiwan

China now has better fighter jets than Taiwan, according to a military report by the island's defense ministry as the air force on Monday renewed its bid to obtain new F-16s from the United States. Of the three types of fighter jets in Taiwan's air force, only the F-16A/Bs have a slight edge over the Chinese aircraft, the report by the defense ministry found, the Liberty Times newspaper said Monday. The island's Indigenous Defensive Fighters (IDF) and French-made Mirage 2000-5s were both inferior to the Russian-made Su-30s deployed by China, it said. The report came as Taiwan's air force command renewed its bid to procure more F-16s from the United States. "As the Chinese communist air force continues with its military buildup and the military balance has gradually tipped towards the other side, the air force will strive to purchase F-16 C/Ds," it said in a statement. - AFP

China

China on Tuesday warned the United States against any future arms sales to Taiwan, including F-16 fighter jets the island has been pushing for in hopes of upgrading its air defense capabilities. Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said China is firmly opposed to U.S. sales of weapons to Taiwan, the self-ruled island that the communist government in Beijing regards as part of its territory and has vowed to conquer by force if necessary. Asked to comment on reports that Taiwan is pushing to buy F-16s from the United States, Qin said Beijing hoped the U.S. would "take China's position seriously and respect China's core interests and major concerns." – Associated Press

Gordon Chang writes:  ‘The Arctic belongs to all the people around the world as no nation has sovereignty over it.’ So said Chinese Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo, in comments relayed by the official China News Service on March 5 that essentially staked Beijing’s claim to the North Pole. Of course, China, lacking an Arctic coast, has no recognizable right to any portion of the roof of the world. The five Arctic littoral states—Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia and the United States—do, however, and their overlapping claims remain unresolved. This all means that Admiral Yin’s statement has put China in the game, as he has effectively challenged all five nations. And not only has Yin staked a claim in the Arctic—it’s clear he wants China’s stake there to be significant. ‘China must play an indispensable role in Arctic exploration as we have one-fifth of the world’s population,’ he argued. – The Diplomat

Josh Rogin reports: When top Obama administration officials went to Beijing last week, they had a broad agenda for discussion, including Iran, climate change, and North Korea. What did the Chinese want to talk about? Taiwan, Taiwan, and Taiwan.  Several China experts close to both sets of officials said that Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg and National Security Council Senior Director Jeffrey Bader went to China with the understanding that they would have substantive discussions on some key issues of U.S. interest, but the Chinese side used the opportunity to try to bargain for an end to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, something Beijing has wanted for decades and now feels bold enough to demand.  "It was all about Taiwan," said Bonnie Glaser, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), "The message that the Chinese are giving us is ‘We've had enough; we're fed up. We've been living with this issue of U.S. arms sales for too long and it's time to solve it.'"  - The Cable

Japan

Gideon Rachman writes:  As it adapts to Japan’s new circumstances the Hatoyama government has, almost unwittingly, initiated a debate about the value of Japan’s alliance with the US. Some western observers in Tokyo muse that perhaps Japan is once again following its historic policy of adapting to shifts in global politics by aligning itself with great powers. Before the first world war the country had a special relationship with Britain. In the inter-war period Japan allied itself with Germany. Since 1945, it has stuck closely to America. Perhaps the ground is being prepared for a new “special relationship” with China? – Financial Times

Korean Peninsula

North Korea has recently created an army division in charge of newly developed intermediate-range missiles capable of striking U.S. forces in Japan and Guam, a South Korean news agency said Tuesday. The report came as North Korea stepped up its war rhetoric against the U.S. and South Korea after the allies started their annual drills aimed at improving their defense capabilities. The North's People's Army recently launched a division supervising operational deployment of missiles with a range of more than 1,860 miles (3,000 kilometers) that it had developed in recent years, Yonhap news agency reported citing an unidentified South Korean government source. The missiles could pose a threat to U.S. forces in Japan, Guam and other Pacific areas that are to be redeployed in time of emergency on the Korean peninsula, Yonhap said. The report, however, didn't provide further details such as how many missiles the new division possesses and where they are positioned. South Korea's Defense Ministry said Tuesday it couldn't confirm the Yonhap report. However, a ministry document published last year showed that the North deployed a new type of medium-range missile believed to be the same as one it displayed during a military parade in 2007. If confirmed, the division's launch could suggest that the North has succeeded in developing more medium-range missiles since 2007 and it needed a bigger unit to manage them, said Ohm Tae-am of the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in Seoul. – Associated Press

Yemen

Yemen's president, facing growing unrest in southern provinces even as violence elsewhere fades, has offered to hold talks with southern separatists and hear their grievances, state media said Tuesday…"We say to them: Come talk with your brothers in the authority, and we will talk with you. We extend the hand of dialogue without (you) having to resort to violence or blocking roads or raising the flag of separation," President Ali Abdullah Saleh said in an address at a military academy…The offer followed repeated clashes between government troops and southern separatists that left a trail of dead and wounded on both sides in recent weeks, as protests escalated and authorities rounded up scores of southern activists. Diplomats say previous offers for dialogue have not been followed by concrete action to address southern complaints that Sanaa neglects the region and treats southerners unfairly, including in property disputes, jobs and pension rights. - Reuters

Africa

The United Nations peacekeeping mission in eastern Congo provided food, fuel and logistical support to a Congolese colonel overseeing soldiers accused of gang rapes, massacres and other abuses, months after U.N. human rights investigators included him on a list of the army's most abusive commanders and in further internal warnings.  The U.N. decision to support Col. Innocent Zimurinda and other commanders on the list has been part of the mission's backing of Congolese military operations targeting a notorious rebel group. The 10-year-old U.N. peacekeeping mission, deployed to keep an elusive peace following two devastating Congolese wars, is the most expensive in the world and receives a quarter of its budget from the United States. In October, a top U.N. investigator cited "credible evidence" that Zimurinda had led a massacre of civilians that included the gang rape of 10 women, some of whose breasts were hacked off. In November, U.N. officials said the mission would halt support to units implicated in human rights violations, after U.N. lawyers had warned that support of abusive commanders could leave the mission vulnerable to charges of complicity in war crimes. But in rare interviews here, Zimurinda and one of his deputies said they were still receiving supplies in December and January. A U.N. spokesman, Kevin Kennedy, said he could confirm that supplies already "in the pipeline" had continued to flow as the mission waited for legal guidance from U.N. headquarters, and he said of Zimurinda that "there may have been units under his sector command that received support." – Washington Post

Officials and human rights groups in Nigeria sharply increased the count of the dead after a weekend of vicious ethnic violence, saying Monday that as many as 500 people — many of them women and children — may have been killed near the city of Jos, long a center of tensions between Christians and Muslims.  The dead were Christians and members of an ethnic group that had been feuding with the Hausa-Fulani, Muslim herders whom witnesses and police officials identified as the attackers. Officials said the attack was in reprisal for violence in January, when dozens of Muslims were slaughtered in and around Jos, including more than 150 in one village.  Early Sunday, the attackers set upon the villagers with machetes, killing women and children in their homes and ensnaring the men who tried to flee in fishnets and animal traps, then massacring them, according to a Nigerian rights group whose investigators went to the area. Some homes were set on fire.  The latest attacks were “a sort of vengeance from the Hausa-Fulani,” said the Rev. Emmanuel Joel, of the Christian Association of Nigeria in Jos. After the January attacks, “the military watched over the city, and neglected the villages,” he said…The police said Monday that they had made 95 arrests, including a number of Hausa-Fulani. – New York Times

The U.S. government and an international human rights group called Tuesday for Nigeria to investigate and prosecute those responsible for the deaths of more than 200 unarmed people in renewed violence between Christians and Muslims. Human Rights Watch also asked Acting President Goodluck Jonathan to provide police and military protection for those in the small villages surrounding Jos, a central Nigerian city that has become the fault line for religious violence in the region. Those who survived attacks Sunday in three mostly Christian villages to Jos' south said security forces never provided them any guards, even though Jos itself has remained under a dusk-til-dawn curfew since violence in January left more than 300 dead, most of them Muslims. "It's time to draw a line in the sand," Human Rights Watch researcher Corinne Dufka said in a statement Tuesday. "The authorities need to protect these communities, bring the perpetrators to book and address the root causes of violence." – Associated Press

Americas

FPI Director Robert Kagan and Aroop Mukharji write:  More than reflecting the immediate desires of the people, a successful democracy must also rest on strong institutional and legal foundations that are above any one man. Especially in a nascent democracy, the integrity of institutions is as important as the will of the people. The Colombian constitution is only 20 years old, and it was already changed four years ago to allow Uribe to run for a second term. Had he been in office four more years, Uribe would have ended up appointing most of the supreme court and the top generals. In effect, a third term would have paved the way for Uribe to build a government around himself…The effect of a third Uribe term would have extended beyond Colombia. Democracy is being undermined across South America, where hyper-presidencies and constitutional change have become commonplace. Uribe would have strengthened a trend begun by Chávez, joined by Ecuador's Rafael Correa, Bolivia's Evo Morales and attempted in Honduras by Manuel Zelaya. Instead, Colombia has pushed back against this wave of autocracy and struck a blow that should resonate. Tempted by easy constitutional change, Colombia chose instead to set a model for durable and peaceful democratic transitions of power.  Uribe is the ultimate hero of this story. Whatever his personal desires, he allowed the court to do its job without interference. Whatever his accomplishments, including defeating terrorists and giving Colombians hope, his greatest gift to his people will be a society and political system based not on the power and appeal of an individual but on the rule of law. – Washington Post

Burma

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Monday he sent a letter to Myanmar's junta chief to voice concern about the credibility of this year's nationwide election, the country's first in 20 years. Ban said he wrote to Senior General Than Shwe 10 days ago "expressing my concern about this lack of progress" on democratic reforms and emphasizing the importance of ensuring that this year's vote is "most credible, inclusive and transparent."…Ban urged the junta to empty the country's jails of political dissidents so they can take part in a nationwide election planned for this year. "All the political prisoners, including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, (should be) released as soon as possible, so that all of them can participate," he told reporters in New York. "That will make the election an inclusive and credible one." The election, a date for which has yet to be revealed, has been widely derided as an attempt by the junta to make the country appear democratic, with the military pulling the strings behind a civilian-fronted government. - Reuters

Horn of Africa

The French Navy has captured 35 suspected pirates in three days of operations off the coast of Somalia — the biggest haul in the two years since EU naval ships started patrolling the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean. In operations over the weekend the Nivose, a French frigate, seized four mother ships and six skiffs. In one raid on Sunday, French and EU forces used helicopters and fired warning shots to stop and capture a mother ship and two accompanying vessels. The prisoners are expected to be flown to Kenya, which is already prosecuting about 100 pirates on behalf of Western nations with forces in the area. French naval commanders praised the action by the Nivose. “The pirates are learning that we are not a soft touch,” said a spokesman in Paris. – Times of London

Defense

More than eight years since Boeing first tried to supply new airborne tankers to the Defense Department, the company appears to have finally won the tanker competition Northrop Grumman announced today that it will not bid on the KC-X tanker and it will not file a protest that might delay the program any further. The announcement came from the top. “We reached this conclusion based on the structure of the source selection methodology defined in the RFP, which clearly favors Boeing’s smaller refueling tanker and does not provide adequate value recognition of the added capability of a larger tanker, precluding us from any competitive opportunity,” said CEO Wes Bush. “We continue to believe that Northrop Grumman’s tanker represents the best value for the military and taxpayer – a belief supported by the selection of the A330 tanker design over the Boeing design in the last five consecutive tanker competitions around the globe. Regrettably, this means that the U.S. Air Force will be operating a less capable tanker than many of our Allies in this vital mission area.” Bush also said the company, mindful of the furor over the last bid protest, will not file one. “While we feel we have substantial grounds to support a GAO or court ruling to overturn this revised source selection process, America’s service men and women have been forced to wait too long for new tankers,” he said in his statement. - DoDBuzz