FPI Overnight Brief: March 4, 2010

Iran

The United States is circulating a draft of new, tougher sanctions against Iran that concentrate on the banking, shipping and insurance sectors of Iran’s economy and is now waiting for China and Russia to signal that they are willing to start negotiating over the measures, United Nations Security Council diplomats said Wednesday.  The proposed sanctions would both broaden the scope and intensify three previous rounds of sanctions enacted since 2006 in an effort to persuade Iran to halt uranium enrichment and negotiate the future of its nuclear development program.  The diplomats said the proposed sanctions called for an outright ban on certain transactions with Iran, whereas the existing sanctions called on United Nations members to exercise “vigilance” or “restraint” in interacting with Iran in some areas of weapons trade, shipping and banking. The focus is on the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which runs a vast array of Iranian businesses, while the oil industry is not included, diplomats said.  The proposed sanctions seek to expand other aspects of those already in place, including the list of banks singled out, adding at least the country’s central bank to Bank Melli and Bank Saderat, which were listed before.  The new sanctions would also expand the list of individuals facing a travel ban and assets freeze for their work in the nuclear program. Sanctions to date, which run to about six pages, have singled out companies and individuals involved in the nuclear and missile development programs or in efforts to help to finance them. They include a ban on arms exports. – New York Times

The Obama administration, still struggling to win China's pivotal backing for a new round of United Nations sanctions against Iran, is increasingly worried about gaining the support of some other members of the U.N. Security Council, particularly Brazil, Turkey and Lebanon, according to U.S. and European officials. Officials involved in the diplomacy fear that China's stated opposition to tough new sanctions, if reinforced by other players, could weaken any U.N. penalties against Tehran. Though Brazil, Turkey and Lebanon hold temporary seats and can't veto sanctions—unlike permanent council members including China—they could make it harder for the U.S. to get agreement by sustaining the opposition campaign. Senior U.S. diplomats have intensified discussions in recent weeks with leaders in China, Turkey, Brazil and Lebanon in a bid to push a sanctions vote at the U.N. on Iran by next month. But on Wednesday, Brazilian officials publicly rebuffed the U.S. during Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit to the capital, Brasilia. "It is not prudent to push Iran against a wall," President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told reporters ahead of their meeting. Afterward, foreign minister Celso Amorim said sanctions "could be counterproductive." Turkish and Lebanese officials have made similar comments in recent weeks. – Wall Street Journal

An analysis released Wednesday concludes that the higher enrichment level would give Iran's rulers a bigger head start if they choose to go for a bomb. A stockpile of 20-percent-enriched uranium could be converted to a bomb's worth of weapons-grade fuel in about a month, the nonprofit Institute for Science and International Security said. Despite the diplomatic assault, the prospects for securing international support for tough sanctions against Iran remain uncertain. An attempt by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to win Brazil's backing appeared to fizzle Wednesday; after a meeting with Clinton in Brasilia, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told a news conference it was not wise "to push Iran into a corner." – Washington Post

The U.S. and Europe said Wednesday they share U.N. fears that Tehran may be secretly working on developing nuclear missiles, expressing support for new sanctions if Tehran continues to defy Security Council demands…An unusually strongly worded statement delivered by Spain on behalf of the EU to the IAEA's 35-nation board criticized Tehran on a wide range of issues linked to concerns that its nuclear program may be a front for clandestine efforts to make atomic warheads. "The EU shares the agency's concerns about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile," the statement said. Beyond making the same point, U.S. chief delegate Glyn Davies said the IAEA is justified in being concerned that Tehran--accused of repeatedly concealing suspicious nuclear activities or revealing them only to pre-empt being found out--"about the possible construction in secret of other new nuclear facilities in Iran." – Associated Press

At least six human rights advocates were reported to have been arrested in Iran on Wednesday, dampening hopes that the government was easing its campaign of arrests ahead of the Iranian New Year on March 21.  In another signal of continued government pressure, Fatimeh Karroubi, the wife of the opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi, wrote in a public letter that pro-government forces had demonstrated outside their apartment building in northern Tehran on Sunday, pelting the building with tomatoes and eggs.  The Iranian Committee of Human Rights Reporters reported on its Web site that at least five activists had been arrested in Tehran and one in the southern province of Khuzestan. Another report said that two students, in Shiraz and Kermanshah, were jailed after raids on their homes on Tuesday.  Hundreds of Iranians were jailed earlier this year to thwart the opposition’s efforts to revive last year’s mass protests in time for Feb. 11, the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. Hopes that the government might be ending its campaign, though slight, were raised in the past week as more than a dozen prisoners were released on bail. – New York Times

Iraq

Three bombings in Iraq's Diyala province targeting government and medical buildings killed at least 33 people Wednesday morning, raising fears about deteriorating security days before Sunday's parliamentary elections. Iraqi police officials said at least 55 people were wounded in the blasts. The initial explosion, a car bomb, targeted an Iraqi police station about 9:45 a.m. in a western district of Baqubah, the provincial capital, according to Maj. Ghalib Aativa, a police spokesman. The detonation ripped through a nearby building and reduced it to rubble. Minutes later, a suicide bomber in a car detonated explosives near the main provincial building, which has been the target of numerous attacks in recent years. The blast destroyed the office of former prime minister Ibrahim al-Jafari's political party. Jafari, a Shiite, is a candidate in the elections. Shortly afterward, as the provincial police commander was walking into the city's main hospital to check on wounded police officers, a suicide bomber on foot detonated explosives near the main gate that leads to the emergency room. – Washington Post

The deadly suicide bombings in Iraq on Wednesday highlight the central quandary facing President Obama as he tries to fulfill his campaign pledge to end the war there: Will parliamentary elections, scheduled for Sunday, throw the country back into the sectarian strife that flared in 2004 and delay the planned American withdrawal?  Senior Obama administration officials maintained in interviews this week that Mr. Obama’s plan to withdraw all American combat troops by Sept. 1 would remain on track regardless of who cobbles together a governing coalition after the election. Under the plan, no more than 50,000 American forces would stay behind, mostly in advisory roles…But administration officials also acknowledged that the bigger worry for the United States was not who would win the elections, but the possibility that the elections — and their almost certainly messy aftermath — could ignite violence that would, at the least, complicate the planned withdrawal. – New York Times

A failed effort by the United States to neutralize a powerful Shiite militant group in Iraq has left in place a dangerous force whose attacks on American troops threaten to complicate the U.S. drawdown, according to American and Iraqi officials.  The group, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, kidnapped an American defense contractor last month, and U.S. officials say its members appear to be forming alliances with other Shiite militias to attack Baghdad's Green Zone and U.S. military bases with rockets. Until this year, the group's leader, Qais al-Khazali, was in U.S. custody. His release came after negotiations with American and Iraqi officials that left the United States hopeful that Khazali would renounce violence and steer his men toward the political system, removing his group from the long list of threats facing U.S. forces. But the episode appears to have only increased the clout wielded by Khazali, a onetime deputy to Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr who has become the leader of one of the most organized and lethal Shiite militias in Iraq, one with close ties to Iran. The failed attempt at reconciliation also serves as a cautionary tale at a time when the United States is trying to neutralize insurgent groups not only in Iraq but also in Afghanistan and elsewhere. – Washington Post

A politician widely accused of running death squads might not be expected to have an easy time running for public office. But this is Iraq. In a nation sadly inured to years of sectarian bloodletting, Hakim al-Zamili not only has a place on a prominent Shiite election slate, but stands poised to win a place in the Parliament, as early voting began Thursday morning for the infirm, people with special needs and members of the military and the police…Mr. Zamili’s new political role has heightened concerns that for all the talk of cross-sectarian alliances among some Shiite and Sunni factions, Iraq may be unable to firmly break with its troubled past.  The embrace of his candidacy “sends the worst possible message to loyal Iraqis,” said one American official who was involved in a fruitless effort to convict Mr. Zamili at a high-profile trial in 2008. He spoke on the condition that he not be identified because he was not authorized to comment on Iraqi political developments. – New York Times

The War

Al Qaeda's terrorism network in North Africa is becoming increasingly active and attracting more recruits, threatening to further destabilize the continent's already vulnerable Sahara region, U.S. defense and counterterrorism officials said. The North African faction, which calls itself al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, is still small and largely isolated, numbering a couple of hundred militants based mostly in the vast desert of northern Mali. But signs of stepped-up activity and the group's advancing potential for growth worry analysts familiar with the region. The rapid rise of the al Qaeda group in Yemen — which spawned the attempted attack on an airliner on Christmas — is seen by U.S. officials and counterterrorism analysts as evidence that the North African militants could just as quickly take on a broader jihadi mission and become a serious threat to the U.S. and European allies. The Mali-based militants have yet to show a capability to launch such foreign attacks, but are widening their involvement in kidnapping and the narcotics trade, reaping profits that could be used to expand terrorism operations, officials and analysts said. – Associated Press

16 Republican Senators wrote to President Obama:  Terrorists now know exactly what our interrogation methods and limitations are, and based on that knowledge they can train and prepare themselves to successfully resist interrogation efforts.   The restrictions which have been put in place by E.O. 13491 handcuff the IC and have created an atmosphere of uncertainty where members of the Intelligence Community will not conduct any interrogations for fear of prosecution.  As the DNI has made clear, even the newly formed High Value Detainee Interrogation Group (HIG) will use only FBI interrogators and rely on personnel from the CIA and DIA to provide intelligence support only.  This seems to limit the IC even further to use only those interrogation methods approved by the FBI.  The decision to limit our interrogators will lead to lost intelligence.    By removing the restrictions of E.O. 13491 we can give the IC the tools it needs to prosecute this war and also prove to members of the IC that we have faith and confidence in their ability to collect intelligence necessary to combat al-Qaeda. - Senator Ensign’s (R-NV) office

John Yoo writes:  I believe, as I explain at great length in Crisis and Command, that the Constitution's grant of executive power to the President gives him the ability to respond quickly and decisively to emergencies. So yes, once the United States was attacked by al Qaeda on September 11, 2001, the President had the immediate authority to respond militarily to prevent future attacks on the country. Even scholars, such as John Hart Ely, who believe that the Declare War Clause requires that Presidents receive the approval of Congress before they can wage war, agree that there must be an exception to respond to attacks on the United States. This requires us to read into the Declare War Clause an unwritten exception, one that does not make textual sense when read in light of other portions of the Constitution, for example Article I, Section 10, which specifically allows states to "engage in war" without the permission of Congress if "actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not permit of delay." Why would the Framers be so specific about allowing a defense to attacks for states, but not for the Declare War Clause. I have argued that it is better to read the Declare War Clause as not requiring Congress to pre-approve all uses of force, but to understand it as Congress's power over the legal status of a conflict. Congress has plenty of other powers that it can and has used to control war, most importantly its authority over the shape and size of the military and its funding of wars. – Washington Post

High drop-out and low recruitment rates have hampered NATO efforts to boost security forces to control insurgents in southern Afghanistan, the U.S. general leading the effort said on Wednesday. Lieutenant-General William B. Caldwell, who is directing an effort to increase the size of the Afghan army and police to 300,000 by 2011, said drop-out rates for the police stood at 25 percent and at 18 percent for the army. The rate for the best police unit, the paramilitary Afghan National Civil Order Police, was 60-70 percent, Caldwell told reporters. "This is absolutely unacceptable," he said. Training Afghan soldiers and police to take over security is critical to the U.S. and NATO strategy in Afghanistan. The sooner Afghans are capable of securing the country, the sooner foreign troops can withdraw, commanders say. But the strategy hinges on finding enough recruits and training them rapidly. While new pay scales had helped push recruitment rates since December to more than 7,000 a month, the number of recruits from among ethnic Pashtuns in southern provinces, where the Taliban insurgency is fiercest, remains only 2-3 percent of the total. "We are not satisfied with the number of Pashtuns coming into the army from the south," Caldwell said. - Reuters

Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-TX) writes:  Intelligence collection is, without a doubt, serious business. Yet the Obama administration and the Democratic leadership in Congress continue to make it harder to collect the intelligence we need. Over the past year, the Obama administration released classified memos detailing interrogation techniques despite the appeal of five former CIA directors not to do so. They also appointed a special prosecutor to reinvestigate those who participated in the CIA interrogation program and launched ethics investigations against Justice Department lawyers whose legal opinions they did not like, emphasizing the danger of taking risks to all. And, of course, Pelosi, when questioned about the briefings she received on the interrogations, responded by accusing the CIA of lying.  The reflexive action of some in Washington is to blame and accuse the very people we count on to keep us safe. It’s unfortunate, irresponsible and dangerous. – Politico

The U.S. and its allies are working to create a new American-led military command in southern Afghanistan, setting the stage for a large-scale offensive into the Taliban stronghold of Kandahar. Senior military officials say the new command will manage all military operations in Helmand province, including the continuing campaign in Marjah. The plan would allow the existing British-led command in southern Afghanistan to focus on the Kandahar campaign…As with Marjah, senior U.S. personnel are publicly telegraphing the Kandahar campaign, which will likely start this summer. A senior White House official said last week that the Marjah campaign—the coalition's largest offensive since 2001—was a "tactical prelude" to a substantially bigger assault on Kandahar. "Bringing security, comprehensive population security, to Kandahar city is really the centerpiece of operations this year," the official said.  – Wall Street Journal

With his white turban, untrimmed beard and worn army jacket, the man known uniformly here by his nom de guerre, Col. Imam, is a particular Pakistani enigma. A United States-trained former colonel in Pakistan’s spy agency, he spent 20 years running insurgents in and out of Afghanistan, first to fight the Soviet Army, and later to support the Taliban, as Pakistani allies, in their push to conquer Afghanistan in the 1990s.  Today those Taliban forces are battling his onetime mentor, the United States, and Western officials say Colonel Imam has continued to train, recruit and finance the insurgents. Along with a number of other retired Pakistani intelligence officials, they say, he has helped the Taliban stage a remarkable comeback since 2006. In two recent interviews with The New York Times, Colonel Imam denied that. But he remains a vocal advocate of the Taliban, and his views reveal the sympathies that have long run deep in the ranks of Pakistan’s military and intelligence services.  Despite Pakistan’s recent arrest of several high-level Taliban commanders, men like Colonel Imam sit at the center of the questions that linger around what Pakistan’s actual intentions are toward the Taliban. – New York Times

The Counterterrorism Strategy Initiative of the New America Foundation has released an interactive map detailing Predator drone strikes in Pakistan.

Pakistan

Investigations into the murder of Benzair Bhutto took a new turn as Pakistani officials said that they are searching for four military personnel who had disappeared just before the assassination of the former prime minister.  Interior ministry officials told DawnNews that the missing soldiers were retired army personnel who were among the eight army soldiers related to the main accused and a proclaimed offender in the case, Ibad Ur Rehman. The interior ministry officials disclosed that investigators are facing difficulties in determining the exact status of these soldiers and so far no record had been provided. The four other soldiers are still serving the army. These four army personnel had never been mentioned in the legal proceedings before an anti-terrorist court in Rawalpindi. This is the first time that the investigators are probing into the possibility of army soldiers’ involvement into the assassination of the former prime minister. - Dawn

China

China’s official military budget will rise by just 7.5 percent in 2010, a government spokesman said on Thursday, a rate that is about half the increase in recent years and the first single-digit rise in military spending since 1989. The announcement by Li Zhaoxing, a spokesman for the National People’s Congress, China’s legislature, gave no explanation for the slowdown. Some analysts speculated, however, that China’s huge economic stimulus program and other efforts to address unemployment and welfare had eaten into monies that in a normal year would go toward the nation’s rapid military buildup.  Speaking at a news conference before Friday’s opening of the legislature, Mr. Li said that the government has always tried to limit military spending, and had “set the defense spending at a reasonable level to ensure the balance between national defense and economic development.”…A budget report submitted to the legislature said the government had earmarked 531.1 billion renminbi , or about $77.9 billion, for the military in 2010, an increase of about $5.4 billion from actual spending last year.  Military spending in 2009 had been forecast to expand by 14.9 percent over the 2008 total, but Reuters reported that spending grew at a slightly greater rate because the military spent about $2 billion more than anticipated. – New York Times

Three Chinese dairy officials were sentenced Wednesday to up to five years in prison after a Shanghai court found them guilty of producing and selling dangerous products, state media reported. Wang Yuechao, the 47-year-old deputy general manager and registered representative of Shanghai's now-closed Panda Dairy Co., was sentenced to five years in prison after the company was found to have knowingly sold milk containing dangerous levels of the industrial chemical melamine, news reports said. The reports said two others were sentenced to jail, former general manager Hong Qide for four and a half years and former deputy general manager Chen Dehua for three years, for their roles in producing and selling tainted milk, some of which had been recalled months earlier but resold. The officials were also fined up to $58,400 each. All denied responsibility, said state media. None of the officials were reachable. The Shanghai district court where the trial took place declined to comment Thursday. Problems in Chinese milk in recent years have served to underscore quality concerns about the nation's food supply, as well as highlight how company and government officials are sometimes reluctant to publicly recall hazardous products. – Wall Street Journal

Company executives, trade groups and diplomats said Xue's [“industrial espionage”] case, which is now in its seventh month, and two similar ones involving an American auto engineer and an Australian mining executive appear to be part of a broader effort by China over the past few years to use everything at its disposal -- the courts, the regulatory system, trade law and even hacking -- to promote its own "national champions." The boldness of the new policies, foreign companies said, speaks to a self-confidence that has emerged as a result of China's strong and speedy recovery from a global economic crisis that developed countries are still struggling with. "When the Chinese government's economic growth objectives depended on money, jobs, best practices and technology transfers from foreign direct investment, they welcomed us," said Robert Ness, a Beijing-based lobbyist representing U.S. technology firms.  But now that some of China's domestic industries are mature, Ness said, "we are all waking up to the fact that in China the concept of 'open markets' is not a value like it is in the West. It is a means to an end." – Washington Post

Defense

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, laid out new principles Wednesday for how to use the military in meeting contemporary threats, saying that overwhelming force can be counterproductive if used recklessly.  In a careful recalibration of well-known principles set forth years ago by a predecessor, Gen. Colin L. Powell, Admiral Mullen said the military “must not try to use force only in an overwhelming capacity, but in the proper capacity, and in a precise and principled manner.”  Speaking at Kansas State University, he pointed to new rules restricting the use of combat force in Afghanistan, where civilian deaths caused by American troops and American bombs have outraged the local population and made the case for the insurgency. That kind of restraint, at the insistence of the field commander there, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, has been criticized in some quarters as reneging on the so-called Powell Doctrine, which favored overwhelming force to achieve unambiguous victories.  Even when the forces brought into combat are clearly superior, as in the huge assault on the Taliban stronghold of Marja in southern Afghanistan that began Feb. 13, there can be a difference from assaults of the past, Admiral Mullen suggested.  At Marja, he said, “We did not prep the battlefield with carpet bombing or missile strikes. We simply walked in, on time. Because, frankly, the battlefield isn’t necessarily a field anymore. It’s in the minds of the people.” – New York Times

The Admiral’s remarks may be viewed and read here.

The Pentagon's upcoming study on gays in the military is biased, some Republican lawmakers already contend, because it assumes Congress will repeal the 1993 law known as "don't ask, don't tell." Republicans are likely to use that argument as they try to erode the credibility of the planned review, which Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates envisions as the first comprehensive look at the 17-year-old policy. Leading the assessment are the Defense Department's general counsel, Jeh Johnson, and the U.S. Army Forces Europe commander, Gen. Carter Ham. Testifying before a House Armed Services subcommittee for the first time since being named to lead the study Wednesday, they promised a thorough and objective assessment of the "don't ask, don't tell" policy. – Associated Press

The Pentagon will buy fewer F-35s than planned if program costs keep rising, says a senior U.S. defense official.  "If there is [additional] cost growth, then we will have to reduce the buy," Robert Hale, Pentagon comptroller, said March 3 during a Precision Strike Association-sponsored conference in Arlington, Va. "I don't see us getting additional funding" above the $708 billion in the Obama administration's 2011 defense spending proposal. – Defense News

Turkey

A U.S. congressional vote on how to define the 1915 slaughter of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, expected Thursday, is turning into a game of brinksmanship between the White House and Ankara. In previous years, Congress has attempted to pass a resolution to recognize the Armenian events as genocide. Such a resolution would inflame Turkey and has brought vows from past U.S. administrations that they would block the bill, a nod to Turkey's role as a key ally of Washington in the Middle East…Two delegations of Turkish lawmakers have been in Washington this week, lobbying the committee to block the move. "There would be consequences," if the vote passes, said Suat Kiniklioglu, a legislator and deputy chairman of external affairs for the ruling Justice and Development party. "Turks find it very offensive to be equated with Nazis." "We are working well with the U.S. in a number of areas—in Iraq, in Pakistan, Afghanistan, on the Middle East peace process, Iran and Syria. In all these areas, if this passes through the Congress there would be an impact," said Mr. Kiniklioglu, speaking by phone from Washington. Turkey has the second-largest armed forces in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and is a key U.S. ally in the region. – Wall Street Journal

Europe/Russia

Dutch anti-Islamist leader Geert Wilders scored major gains in local authority polls Thursday, making him a serious challenger for power in a June national election, preliminary results showed. In the first test of public opinion since the collapse of Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende's coalition government last month, Wilders's Freedom Party (PVV) led in the city of Almere and was second in The Hague. The results came on top of an opinion poll showing that the PVV, which campaigns against Muslim immigration as its main platform, would win the most seats -- 27 in the 150-member Dutch parliament -- in the June 9 election. That would make it tough for Balkenende's Christian Democrats, projected to win one seat less, to forge a strong coalition without Wilders. Months of talks between parties, and the resulting policy vacuum, could threaten a fragile economic recovery and cast doubt on the scope of planned budget cuts. The popularity of Wilders, who compares Islam to fascism and the Koran to Adolf Hitler's book "Mein Kampf," has dented the image of the Netherlands as a country that has often portrayed itself in the past as a bastion of tolerance. - Reuters

Korean Peninsula

A North Korean firing squad publicly executed a factory worker for sneaking news out of the reclusive communist country via his illicit mobile phone, Seoul-based radio said Thursday. The armaments factory worker was accused of divulging the price of rice and other information on living conditions to a friend who defected to South Korea years ago, Open Radio for North Korea reported on its Web site. The man, surnamed Chong, made calls to the defector using an illegal Chinese mobile phone, the broadcaster said, citing a North Korean security agency official it did not identify. The report didn't say when the phone calls were made. The execution took place by firing squad in late January in the eastern coastal city of Hamhung, according to Open Radio for North Korea, a broadcaster specializing in the isolated country. The station broadcasts into North Korea, which tightly controls news. – Associated Press

Americas

Four days after a powerful earthquake here, a show of force has emerged across parts of Chile’s affected areas. After lawlessness struck nearby Concepción, with some stores being set on fire, President Michelle Bachelet’s government has tried to bring order to areas still struggling to restore basic services, like electricity and water.  In towns like Arauco and Cañete, where the quake knocked out power and most communications, the streets are pitch black at night, except for the dim lights from military and federal police trucks positioned at important streets. The authorities are strictly enforcing a curfew from 8 p.m. to 6 a.m., and an even stricter one in Concepción, from 6 p.m. to noon.  In many cases, they appear to be doing so professionally, without malice. Even so, vehicles caught out at night are met with teams of soldiers raising their rifles and demanding that drivers get out of their vehicles. – New York Times

Japan

The Japanese government has approached United States officials with a tentative proposal for resolving a festering dispute over an American air base in Okinawa, the Japanese news media reported on Thursday.  The proposal would modify a 2006 deal to relocate the Futenma Marine Corps air station, a busy helicopter base, from a crowded city in southern Okinawa to a less populated area in the island’s north. Under the new proposal, the base would be moved to the same location but would be smaller and have a diminished impact on local residents and the environment, according to the reports in major Japanese newspapers.  The reports described the diplomatic contacts as informal, early attempts to sound out whether the plan might be acceptable to the United States, which has irritated many Japanese officials by insisting that the government honor the original agreement. – New York Times

Southeast Asia

Terrorists may be planning attacks on oil tankers and other large ships in the Malacca Strait, the Singapore Shipping Association said Thursday, citing an advisory from the Singapore Navy. The Singapore Navy's Information Fusion Centre "received an indication that a terrorist group is planning attacks on oil tankers in the Malacca Straits," it said in the advisory, which was reviewed by Dow Jones Newswires. "This does not preclude possible attacks on other large vessels with dangerous cargo."…More than 50,000 vessels pass annually through the Malacca Strait, a vital link connecting the Middle East and Europe to Asia. It runs between Malaysia and the Indonesian island of Sumatra. U.S. and other Western governments have expressed concern that terrorists groups linked to al-Qaeda may hijack an oil tanker and use it as a "floating bomb." – Wall Street Journal

Obama Administration

John Bolton writes:  Those favoring the halo-surrounded path of humility [in international relations] argue that our strength is too prideful and is actually a source of many current challenges, and that less strength and more humility will reduce those challenges. This is certainly the predominant view in Europe, and seemingly also now prevails in Obama-era Washington. The more realistic view is that American weakness, not our strength, is provocative, as the Europeans should better understand after almost sixty-five years of sheltering under the American umbrella. A United States infused with humility works right up until they - and we ourselves - need real protection. It is realism's virtue never to forget that lesson. – American Security Council Foundation