FPI Overnight Brief: March 3, 2010

U.S. commanders say they are unsure about who is responsible for the persistent violence in Iraq, underscoring the challenge they face trying to keep a lid on it amid parliamentary elections this weekend. While security has improved significantly across Iraq in recent years, in the weeks leading up to the March 7 vote, U.S. commanders have reported an increase in low-level violence: kidnappings, assassinations, and mortar attacks against Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone, the seat of government power…U.S. and Iraqi successes cracking down on organized insurgent groups have caused the groups to splinter into an ill-defined web of smaller, often independent, groups with widely divergent motives, ranging from the ideological to the purely material, according to American military officials. "There is definitely less clarity as to who the enemy is," says a U.S. Special Forces officer in Baghdad. "The big-time players aren't there anymore. The organized terrorists aren't there anymore." – Wall Street Journal

An Afghan intelligence official said Tuesday that the Pakistani militant group Lashkar-i-Taiba orchestrated the deadly attack that targeted two guesthouses in the capital last week.  The assessment, if true, could signal a departure for the group, which has long focused on fighting India over the disputed region of Kashmir. India blames the militant organization for the siege that killed 165 people in Mumbai in November 2008. Afghan intelligence spokesman Sayed Ansari said investigators had concluded that Lashkar was involved in the recent attack based on evidence that it was carried out by a team of suicide bombers who spoke Urdu, a Pakistani language, and who were searching for Indian victims. The Afghan Taliban had previously asserted responsibility for the assault, which left 16 people dead, within hours of its start.  The claim by Afghan intelligence could not be verified Tuesday, and it contradicts the conclusions of other observers. A U.S. military intelligence official told reporters Monday that he believed the Haqqani network, a Pakistan-based Afghan militant group, was behind the attack. Indian officials have said they suspect that the two groups worked in concert to stage the raid. – Washington Post

The president of the U.N. Security Council said on Tuesday it was ready to tackle proposals for new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, while U.S. diplomats worked to persuade China that action is needed. Gabon's U.N. Ambassador Emanuel Issoze-Ngondet, president of the Security Council for March, said the Iranian nuclear issue was not on the agenda of the 15-nation panel this month, but council members might still hold a meeting on it. "We think the question could come to the table" in March, Issoze-Ngondet told reporters through an interpreter. "But right now we are waiting. We're following the process that's ongoing. We're waiting for the right time to bring the Security Council to deal with it." Speaking on condition of anonymity, Western diplomats told Reuters the United States, Britain, France and Germany have prepared a draft proposal -- which they hope China and Russia will support -- for a fourth round of sanctions against Iran for defying U.N. demands that it stop enriching uranium. - Reuters

One day after Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told the UN in Geneva that President Ahmadinejad's June election was "an exemplary exhibition of democracy and freedom," Caspian Makan, the fiancé of slain Iranian icon Neda Agha Soltan, announced today that he will join other world-famous dissidents as a speaker at next Monday's Geneva Summit for Human Rights, Tolerance and Democracy, co-organized by UN Watch, Freedom House, Ibuka and more than 20 other human rights NGOs. Images of Neda's bloody killing in June at the hand of the Basij paramilitary force turned an international spotlight on the brutality of the Iranian government crackdown against peaceful protesters. The Tehran regime banned prayers for Neda in the country's mosques, arresting anyone who held a vigil for her. Mr. Makan was then arrested and detained at Evin Prison in Tehran. He was beaten and pressured to sign a false confession. Since his release, Mr. Makan has been an outspoken dissident for freedom in Iran, spreading Neda's story and message around the world. – Geneva Summit

Laura Rozen reports:  [S]ources in and out of the administration are saying Russia may not feel it needs to sign a new agreement soon. And perhaps not in time for the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty review conference that the Obama administration is hosting in New York in May.  There are a number of issues holding up a new treaty but the primary overarching concern is that Russia may not feel it needs to sign a new agreement, a Washington nonproliferation hand who asked for anonymity said. As the U.S. has its domestic political dimension to START in terms of ratification, so too does Moscow. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir “Putin may not be so eager for [President Dmitri] Medvedev to achieve a foreign policy success,” the foreign policy hand said.  “They are haggling, fighting internally, and trying to figure out how to get more water out of a stone,” a former senior U.S. official knowledgeable about Russia told POLITICO. “Also, wondering when the next shoe will drop -- i.e., what country will announce that it is also a site for US missiles/interceptors. Also, thinking that the President is weak and may not be able to get this damn treaty thru Congress, so there is no rush to agree -- especially if it's not likely to get thru before the NPT Review Conference” in May. - Politico

With great fanfare and rigid security, China on Wednesday launched its annual exercise in participatory democracy, socialist-style: the opening of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Congress, a 2,252-member body that advises Communist Party leaders on how to run the nation.  How much attention the leaders pay the congress is the topic of much outside speculation, and not a few jokes. But as its members streamed into Beijing for two weeks of meetings, the government ratcheted up security in the capital and turned the nation’s media onto their deliberations in a manner befitting a national spectacle.  The C.P.P.C.C., as the congress is called in English, is one of two major political bodies meeting this month. The second and more important group, the unelected 3,000-member legislature called the National People’s Congress, convenes its two-week session on Friday. Together, the “liang hui,” or two meetings, are the year’s major political event.  If past meetings are any indication, the fortnight will be a hodgepodge of sober debate, extended evening parties and frenetic lobbying by groups attracted by the presence of 5,000 politicians in a single place. – New York Times

The Orange coalition of Western-leaning political factions in Ukraine’s Parliament disintegrated Tuesday, in what could be the first stage in an effort to unseat Prime Minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko.  Ms. Tymoshenko, who led the coalition, immediately labeled the dissolution illegal, and vowed to continue to lead the “democratic team.”  She has so far rebuffed calls for her resignation from Viktor F. Yanukovich, who defeated her in a bitterly contested presidential election last month. But the collapse of the majority coalition in Parliament, which Ms. Tymoshenko led, could seriously undermine her ability to hang on, analysts said. – New York Times

A court in East Timor convicted and sentenced 24 rebels Wednesday to up to 16 years in prison over the attempted assassinations of the fledgling democracy's president and prime minister. Another four defendants were acquitted following a seven-month trial on charges of conspiracy and attempted murder that ended last month. President Jose Ramos-Horta nearly died of gunshot wounds received in an attack in his Dili compound on Feb. 11, 2008, and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao narrowly escaped unharmed from an ambush of his motorcade later that day. The defendants were mostly former soldiers and police who became rebels and fugitives after factional rivalries within East Timor's security forces erupted into violence in 2006, killing dozens and toppling the then government. – Associated Press

The U.S. aid that poured into Indonesia after the 2004 tsunami paid handsome dividends for its donor, polishing America's image and leading some government officials to view disaster relief as a pillar of public diplomacy in a wary world. But as the U.S. gears up to help earthquake-ravaged Chile, it appears any public relations benefit from the effort will be more modest. Latin American diplomats and private experts say that although Chileans will respond with gratitude, the larger region's strained ties with the Obama administration are unlikely to improve…The region "expects a certain amount of aid from the United States and the wealthy countries," said one diplomat from a generally pro-American country who spoke on condition of anonymity. "People are grateful. But will it change their foreign policy? No." The tens of millions of dollars U.S. officials have poured into Haiti since its devastating earthquake Jan. 12 have been a plus for the United States, Shifter said. Yet the region's complicated feelings about the United States have also been clear. – Los Angeles Times

Michael O’Hanlon writes: I am beginning to hear worries at the working level about the scheduled changing of basic command arrangements in 2012 between U.S. and South Korean forces on the Korean peninsula.  If the plan is implemented, the long-standing system whereby a U.S. general would command both countries' armed forces in any wartime scenario against North Korea is to be dissolved. Instead, a new approach would have each country in effect command its own military units (while trying to coordinate closely, of course). This means that South Korea would have much greater direct control over operations than it would have now. The concern is that, for a number of practical reasons, 2012 may prove to be too soon for this change.  If those concerns are warranted, Washington and Seoul should be willing to delay the date of transfer of operational control, or "opcon." But to my mind, the basic concept of dividing command never made sense and perhaps should even be repudiated. It violates the basic principle of unity of command. – Los Angeles Times