FPI Overnight Brief: March 1, 2010

Kenneth Anderson writes:  The Predator drone strategy is a rare example of something that has gone really, really well for the Obama administration. Counterterrorism “on offense” has done better, ironically, under an administration that hoped it could just play counterterrorism on defense—wind down wars, wish away the threat as a bad dream from the Bush years, hope the whole business would fade away so it could focus on health care. Yet for all that, the Obama administration, through Predator strikes, is taking the fight to the enemy. And, let’s face it, in dealing with terrorist groups in ungoverned places in the world, we have few good options besides UAVs. Drones permit the United States to go directly after terrorists, rather than having to fight through whole countries to reach them…Obama deserves support and praise for this program from across the political spectrum. More than that, though, the drone strikes need an aggressive defense against increasingly vocal critics who are moving to create around drone warfare a narrative of American wickedness and cowardice and of CIA perfidy. Here the administration has dropped the ball. It has so far failed to provide a robust affirmation of the propositions that underwrite Predator drone warfare. – The Weekly Standard

With frantic rescue efforts under way, a rising death toll and isolated outbreaks of looting, the Chilean president on Sunday issued an order that will send soldiers into the streets in the worst-affected areas to both keep order and speed the distribution of aid.  After huddling in a crisis meeting with her cabinet, President Michelle Bachelet called the damage caused by Saturday’s magnitude-8.8 quake “an emergency unparalleled in the history of Chile.” She said the death toll had reached 708 and suggested it would probably grow in the days ahead.  The police fired water cannons and tear gas to disperse hundreds of people who forced their way into shuttered shops in the southern city of Concepción, which was devastated. But law enforcement authorities, heeding the cries of residents that they lacked food and water, eventually settled on a system that allowed staples to be taken but not televisions and other electronic goods.  Ms. Bachelet later announced that the government had reached a deal with supermarket chains to give away food to needy residents.  Her aides also called on residents not to hoard gas or food, both of which were being bought up in huge amounts by residents fearful of shortages.  – New York Times

A few months ago, building on genuine if not universal popularity, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki appeared poised to win a second term as Iraq’s prime minister. Now, as Iraqis prepare to vote in parliamentary elections on March 7, his path to another four years in office has become increasingly uncertain, his campaign erratic and, to some, deeply troubling. Far from consolidating power in the authoritarian manner that has plagued Iraq’s history, Mr. Maliki risks losing it through the ballot box. In a region where the traditional exit from power has been “the coup or the coffin,” as one Western diplomat here put it recently, the election has become a crucial test of Iraq’s post-invasion democracy, and of Mr. Maliki’s own fate…Even his own supporters acknowledge that Mr. Maliki now appears isolated, imperious and impetuous, his re-election prospects hurt by events out of his control and by others of his own making…Mr. Maliki, who turns 60 in June, could yet prevail. According to politicians and polls conducted by parties and American officials, though not released publicly, Mr. Maliki’s coalition will very likely win the largest plurality of the new Parliament’s 325 seats. But it is unlikely to be anywhere near a majority. – New York Times

Iran has dramatically shifted its public tone toward the United Nations' nuclear watchdog, dropping its previous deference while harshly criticizing the agency's latest report and its new director-general as an incompetent and biased lackey of the West. On Sunday, Iran's supreme leader and highest authority, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, lashed out at the International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors Iran's nuclear program and adherence to the international Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, in a move that could signal a further deterioration of cooperation between the agency and the Islamic Republic. "The IAEA reports indicate this international body is not independent," Khamenei told Iranian diplomats in Tehran. "The IAEA should not bow to pressure from America and some other countries because such unilateral actions will harm the reputation of the IAEA and the United Nations." – Los Angeles Times

As President Obama begins making final decisions on a broad new nuclear strategy for the United States, senior aides say he will permanently reduce America’s arsenal by thousands of weapons. But the administration has rejected proposals that the United States declare it would never be the first to use nuclear weapons, aides said…As described by those officials, the new strategy commits the United States to developing no new nuclear weapons, including the nuclear bunker-busters advocated by the Bush administration. But Mr. Obama has already announced that he will spend billions of dollars more on updating America’s weapons laboratories to assure the reliability of what he intends to be a much smaller arsenal. Increased confidence in the reliability of American weapons, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. said in a speech in February, would make elimination of “redundant” nuclear weapons possible. “It will be clear in the document that there will be very dramatic reductions — in the thousands — as relates to the stockpile,” according to one senior administration official whom the White House authorized to discuss the issue this weekend. Much of that would come from the retirement of large numbers of weapons now kept in storage. – New York Times

FBI surveillance video made public Sunday reveals details of a Chinese espionage operation to obtain secrets from the Pentagon through a group of Americans who spied for China.  The rare video footage was the high point of a multiyear investigation into Chinese espionage carried out by a ring of military intelligence agents operating from Guangzhou, China. The tape, made public by CBS' "60 Minutes," was recorded in 2007 with two cameras hidden in a rental car during the investigation of Pentagon analyst Gregg W. Bergersen. The video reveals Bergersen pocketing a wad of about $2,000 in cash from Kuo Tai-shen, a Taiwanese-born spy for the People's Republic of China. – Washington Times

Since arriving to a hero’s welcome just days ago, the former chief international nuclear watchdog and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Mohamed ElBaradei has taken on the country’s leadership in the way you might expect of a career diplomat: using delicate language and a nonconfrontational approach…His message as he dominated the media landscape was a call for the people of Egypt to press their government for more political freedoms, a provocation in a nation where dissent is hardly tolerated and where a viable political opposition has not been allowed to grow. His point was this: Without amending the Constitution to allow fully free elections, Egypt could not improve any of the deep social and economic problems that had been allowed to fester under the governing party.  “My goal is that there wouldn’t be one savior for Egypt,” Dr. ElBaradei said in a three-hour television interview shortly after he arrived. “My goal is for Egypt to save itself. Help me in order to help you. If you want this country to change, then every one of you must participate to show his desire.”  It is hard to say where Dr. ElBaradei’s head-first plunge into Egyptian politics will lead. He has given voice to the frustration with Egypt’s political, social and economic stagnation in a way that had not been seen since a brief, measured political thaw in 2005. But his early support appears to be primarily among intellectuals and young people, and analysts have questioned whether he will be able to broaden that appeal. – New York Times