FPI Overnight Brief: February 24, 2010

Iran

The Obama administration, having failed in its first year to reach an entente with Iran, will toughen U.S. policy by applying unprecedented pressures on that regime as it continues its quest to become a nuclear power…The first target likely will be Iran's banks. Building on steps taken during the second term of the George W. Bush presidency, the Treasury Department likely will designate Iran's central bank as a terrorist-supporting entity…"The Iranian central bank is implicated in promoting the regime's proliferation efforts and terrorist activities throughout the region. Given the sensitive nature of this institution's activities, it would be a logical target of the Treasury Department designation efforts," said Avi Jorisch, a former policy adviser on terrorist financing at the Treasury Department and the author of "Tainted Money."…Other prospects include trying to persuade European Union banks to bar transactions with Iran in euros. – Washington Times

Emile Hoyakem writes: An important episode is playing out right now: Iraqis will go to the polls on March 7 to elect a new national assembly. The manner, outcome and aftermath of this election will vindicate, or disprove, the relative optimism about the trajectory of the country. So far, compared to the sectarian violence and horrors that engulfed the country only a few years ago, the campaign is proceeding relatively freely and peacefully. According to recent American and Iraqi polls seen by the Iraqi journalist Hussain Abdul-Hussain, the list headed by the current prime minister Nouri al Maliki and known as “State of Law” is expected to come first and win around 80 of the 325 seats in the Iraqi assembly. The list of Iyad Allawi, a former prime minister who heads a multi-sectarian list that originally included the disbarred candidate Saleh al Mutlaq as well as other prominent Sunni figures, would come second with approximately 70 seats. The Iraqi National Alliance (INA), the list that groups the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, the Sadrist movement, and other Shia organisations, would come third with around 60 seats. – The National

The EU is preparing tough sanctions against Iran's energy and financial sectors, according to a confidental list of proposals drawn up for EU foreign ministers and obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE. The measures, aimed at forcing Iran to back down in the nuclear dispute, would have a dramatic impact on the economy… The proposals aren't just aimed at expanding existing sanctions such as trade embargos for military and nuclear products and travel bans for Tehran's bomb builders. For the first time, the EU is envisaging a program that targets the entire Iranian economy. In order to maximize the impact, the experts are recommending measures to hit the energy and financial sectors, where the regime is particularly vulnerable, the document says. – Der Spiegel

Saeed Kamali Dehghan writes:  Last night the BBC Persian service broadcast for the first time a very disturbing video of the attack by the Basij militia and riot police on Tehran University's campus just two days after the stolen election last June. The attack was one of the seminal events of Iran's post-election unrest in which the police broke locks and then bones as they rampaged through the dormitories, carted off more than 100 students and killed five… The riot police behaved so brutally that even some of the Basij tried to stop them, as the video shows. Students were harassed verbally and physically when forced to lie on the ground. Some were bleeding profusely but the police continued to attack them. This was the point when five students were killed by being beaten with electric batons on their heads… Although news of the university campus attack circulated over the internet, many Iranians had not heard about until this video emerged and provided indisputable evidence. It also shows why, with so much brutality to hide, the regime is afraid of letting journalists report from Iran. - Guardian

Defense

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has notified Congress of plans to allow women to serve aboard submarines, a Defense Department official said Tuesday. Letters of intent were sent Monday to Congress, which has requested briefings on the matter, said the official, who asked not to be identified. There will be no vote on the matter in Congress. The change was recommended by the chief of naval operations and the secretary of the Navy in addition to Gates, the official said, adding that there was no opposition to the move among Navy leaders. A phased approach is being considered under which officers -- who already have separate living quarters -- would be the first to go co-ed, followed by crews, with the women bunking together, the official said. Crew space would have to be modified prior to that happening, the official added. The submarines expected to carry women initially would be the larger ones -- nuclear-powered, missile-carrying submarines known as SSBN and SSGN, the official said. Women joined the crews of the Navy's surface ships in 1993, but officials had previously cited limited privacy and the cost of reconfiguring the vessels in arguing against their joining sub crews - CNN

Baker Spring writes:  The Obama Administration has proposed an FY 2011 defense budget that is inconsistent with U.S. security commitments and the Administration's own Quadrennial Defense Review. Under the Administration's current budget outline, total defense spending would decline from $722.1 billion (4.9 percent of GDP) in FY 2010 to $698.2 billion (3.6 percent) in FY 2015. Inadequate funding will lead to shortfalls in manpower levels, modernization, operational capacity, strategy, and/or force structure, thereby exposing the American people and U.S. friends and allies to an unacceptable level of risk. – Heritage Foundation

Josh Rogin reports:  As the Obama administration finishes up negotiations over the lynchpin of its strategy of hitting the "reset button" on U.S. relations with Russia, the "New START" nuclear arms reduction treaty, the big lingering question on everyone's mind is: Will the Senate actually be able to ratify the deal?  Senior Democratic senators, who strongly support the new treaty, aren't so sure.  "It's going to be hard to get it ratified," said Senate Armed Services Committee chairman Carl Levin, D-MI, in a Tuesday interview with The Cable. Levin said he hadn't done a vote count, but wasn't confident the treaty will get the 67 votes needed to make it the law of the land.  "I'm not even sure we'll get a referral from the Foreign Relations Committee," Levin added, promising to at least hold hearings on the issue.  Meanwhile, senior Senators such as Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl, R-AZ, Senate Armed Services ranking Republican John McCain, R-AZ, and Sen. Joseph Lieberman, I-CT, have been sending the administration public warnings about what they don't want to see in the agreement and have been using private methods to pressure the administration on the issue as well. – The Cable

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, who has long called European contributions to NATO inadequate, said Tuesday that public and political opposition to the military had grown so great in Europe that it was directly affecting operations in Afghanistan and impeding the alliance’s broader security goals. “The demilitarization of Europe — where large swaths of the general public and political class are averse to military force and the risks that go with it — has gone from a blessing in the 20th century to an impediment to achieving real security and lasting peace in the 21st,” he told NATO officers and officials in a speech at the National Defense University, the Defense Department-financed graduate school for military officers and diplomats.  A perception of European weakness, he warned, could provide a “temptation to miscalculation and aggression” by hostile powers. The meeting was a prelude to the alliance’s review this year of its basic mission plan for the first time since 1999. “Right now,” Mr. Gates said, “the alliance faces very serious, long-term, systemic problems.” – New York Times

Secretary Gates’ speech can be read here.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s recent speech on the NATO Strategic Concept can be seen and read here.

The top generals from the Army and the Air Force expressed deep concern on Tuesday about moving rapidly to lift the ban on openly gay service members, saying it could make it harder for their forces to do their jobs while fighting two wars.  The comments by Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the Army chief of the staff, and Gen. Norton A. Schwartz, the Air Force chief of staff, may provide political cover for members of Congress who oppose President Obama’s call for repealing the policy known as “don’t ask, don’t tell.”  “I do have serious concerns about the impact of repeal of the law on a force that’s fully engaged in two wars and has been at war for eight-and-a-half years,” General Casey told the Senate Armed Services Committee. “We just don’t know the impacts on readiness and military effectiveness.”  In a separate appearance before the House Armed Services Committee, General Schwartz cautioned that there was little research on how the policy change might affect Air Force personnel deployed for combat, surveillance and support missions around the world.  “This is not the time to perturb the force that is, at the moment, stretched by demands in Iraq and Afghanistan and elsewhere without careful deliberation,” General Schwartz said.  – New York Times

Richard Weitz writes:  With respect to the current negotiations, the ideal solution would have been to defer the missile defense issue to negotiations on the next Russian-U.S. nuclear treaty, but the premature revelations about the Romanian and Bulgarian deployments have made this more difficult. As a result, the Obama administration is now faced with a tough balancing act. It must negotiate language in the current treaty talks that registers Russia's concerns about the inherit link between strategic offense and strategic defense. But it must do so without accepting binding constraints that would cause more than one-third of the U.S. Senate to oppose the new agreement. – World Politics Review

Colin Clark reports:  The Marines are using Ospreys to help set up ambush kill boxes as they hunt the Taliban around Marja, a source familiar with the issue tells us. This may help put paid to the criticism that Ospreys are basically really fancy flying buses. If they are being used where lead is flying and playing a key combat role it’s pretty hard to disregard them, unless you can also disregard assets like Bradleys and Strykers. – DoD Buzz

The War

John Yoo writes:  Barack Obama may not realize it, but I may have just helped save his presidency. How? By winning a drawn-out fight to protect his powers as commander in chief to wage war and keep Americans safe… Without a vigorous commander-in-chief power at his disposal, Mr. Obama will struggle to win any of these victories. But that is where OPR, playing a junior varsity CIA, wanted to lead us. Ending the Justice Department's ethics witch hunt not only brought an unjust persecution to an end, but it protects the president's constitutional ability to fight the enemies that threaten our nation today. – Wall Street Journal

The capture of a second high-level leader of the Afghan Taliban by Pakistani authorities has raised the prospect that Pakistan's powerful intelligence agency, long accused by the U.S. of ties with Islamist extremists, has begun to turn on an organization it once cultivated. But U.S. officials who work closely with Pakistan said they remain unsure if the recent Inter-Service Intelligence operations against the Taliban are a sign of real change in ISI strategy or short-term posturing. "That's the question the whole intelligence community is asking right now," said a senior U.S. military official who works on Pakistan issues. "Is this a success or is this calculated?" Another U.S. official was cautiously optimistic. "No one's ignoring their past with the Taliban, but no one's ignoring Pakistani cooperation either," the official said. "It's one step at a time, and right now, the steps are moving in the right direction." – Wall Street Journal

Across the unforgiving terrain of Afghanistan, American combat forces have come to rely on satellites as well as their rifles and body armor to carry out missions effectively, and to stay alive.  But American units have found that satellite signals are weakened and even blocked outright by the breathtaking peaks and backbreaking valleys of Afghanistan — making it hard to pinpoint the troops’ location, navigate on patrol, identify friend from foe in battle or call in bombs and artillery when under attack. So the top officer of the military’s Strategic Command, which is better known for control of the nation’s nuclear arsenal, has ordered up what might be called a “satellite surge” to increase the coverage and accuracy for GPS devices in the war zone. The constellation of operational satellites that allows GPS devices to work is being expanded over the next year or two to 27 from 24. – New York Times

Among allied forces fighting in Afghanistan, few countries have deployed a bigger share of their armed forces than Denmark, and fewer still have taken higher levels of casualties. But the small Scandinavian country is emerging as an unlikely example of how to maintain public support for the war.  The popularity of the international campaign in Afghanistan has fallen across Europe and in the U.S. On Tuesday, the Dutch government set a June 9 date for general elections, nearly one year ahead of schedule. The move followed the unraveling of Netherlands' coalition government last weekend after it failed win support to extend the mandate of the nation's 1,600 troops in Afghanistan, presaging a likely withdrawal this year…Amid this shift, the Danes have largely maintained public support for the effort, selling the mission as a humanitarian effort rather than simply protection against a terrorist threat, and building consensus among political parties. They have reaped the benefits of a largely supportive media and the country has, to some degree, rediscovered its pride in an active military…[T]hroughout a difficult 2009, polls consistently showed around a half of Danes surveyed by TNS Gallup believed Danish troops should be in Afghanistan; only one-third said they didn't. In NATO nations such as the U.K., Germany and Netherlands, meanwhile, polls reveal over half wanting troops back home. – Wall Street Journal

Over the past two months, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency has captured four senior leaders of the Afghan Taliban, including Mullah Omar's deputy who served as the head of the top shura, the leader of a regional shura, and two shadow governors. These captures, combined with the US-led offensive in Helmand which will expand into Kandahar and the Afghan East later this year, have given rise to reports of the potential collapse of the group. The Afghan Taliban's leadership council and its regional shuras and committees have weathered the capture and death of senior leaders in the past. The Taliban have a deep bench of leaders with experience ranging back to the rise of the Taliban movement in the early 1990s. On prior occasions, younger commanders are known to have stepped into the place of killed or captured leaders. It remains to be seen if the sustained US offensive and possible future detentions in Pakistan will grind down the Taliban's leadership cadre. This report looks at the Afghan Taliban's top leadership council, the Quetta shura; its four regional military councils; the 10 committees; and existing as well as killed or captured members of the shura. – Long War Journal

Afghan civilians will today begin to pour into the district cleared by British troops in a pivotal phase of the operation to banish the Taleban. Teachers and civil servants, together with foreign engineers, will begin to try to cement the military gains of Operation Moshtarak by winning the trust of locals. Over the coming weeks, thousands of farmers will be given alfalfa seed, maize and summer vegetables to help them to move away from poppy growing. Local government will set up bases in villages that have not seen an official for decades. The moves will be signalled today by Gulab Mangal, the Governor of Helmand province, as he announces the end of the military offensive in Nad Ali district and the beginning of the civilian phase to follow it. – Times of London

A U.S. drone aircraft fired two missiles into Pakistan's North Waziristan region on the Afghan border on Wednesday, killing at least three militants, Pakistani intelligence officials and residents said. The strike targeted a stronghold of the Haqqani network, a major Taliban faction attacking Western forces across the border in Afghanistan. A similar strike last week in the same area killed a son of Jalaluddin Haqqani, the leader of the group. - Reuters

Europe/Russia

The Dutch government on Tuesday set June 9 as the date for general elections, nearly one year ahead of schedule, following the collapse of the center-right government in a dispute over the country's engagement in Afghanistan. Queen Beatrix, the ceremonial head of state, accepted the resignation of 12 cabinet officers from the Labor Party who quit the coalition Saturday when the left-leaning party refused to comply with a North Atlantic Treaty Organization request to keep Dutch troops in the southern Afghan province of Uruzgan. Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende will remain in office as head of a minority cabinet until the elections, but is empowered to deal only with issues that can't be delayed, the queen's office said in a statement. – Associated Press

The car bomb that exploded in the Northern Ireland city of Newry Monday night highlights the resurgence in activity of Irish Republican splinter groups determined to wreck the province's fragile peace process with an increasingly sophisticated use of explosives. But analysts say that despite the upsurge in attacks, there is little likelihood of a return to the full-blown violence that plagued the province at the height of the Troubles.  Monday's 225-pound bomb went off in a car near the front security gates of the courthouse of Newry, a town near the border with the Republic of Ireland. Warnings were received by authorities giving 30 minutes' notice of the blast, but the device exploded just 17 minutes later. Local police said it was a "sheer miracle" no one was killed or hurt. – Wall Street Journal

President-elect Viktor F. Yanukovich of Ukraine, who tried during the campaign to shed his reputation as an obedient Kremlin ally, intends to make his first foreign trip after taking office to Brussels, not Moscow, officials said on Tuesday. Mr. Yanukovich, whose inauguration is on Thursday, is scheduled to visit the headquarters of the European Union next Monday for meetings with senior officials. He is to hold talks with the president of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy; the president of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso; and others. Later in the week, he is likely to go to Moscow to see President Dmitri A. Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin. Mr. Yanukovich’s decision to travel to Brussels seems intended to send a message to the country that he is serious about bolstering relations with Europe and that he will not be beholden to Russia. It may also help in his effort to appeal to voters who supported his opponent, Prime Minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko. – New York Times

Ideas

US Air Force Col. Stewart Archer writes:  The State Department is neither organizationally ready nor culturally capable of handling the vast responsibilities of soft power. Handing it carte blanche funding would squander resources and potentially retard the progress made by the military in foreign assistance. Before we rush to "demilitarize diplomacy" and allocate billions for soft power, it's only prudent we examine the distinct organizational challenges and cultural shortcomings that reign at Foggy Bottom. – Defense News

Turkey

As investigations into alleged coup plots hatched in the ranks of the Turkish military reach former generals long thought to be untouchable by civilian law and oversight, the country is split between those who see the latest developments as part of a process of democratisation and those who accuse the government of humiliating the armed forces in an effort to get rid of its most powerful domestic opponent. – The National

Analysis:  Turkey's Islamist-rooted ruling party has dramatically upped the stakes in its showdown with the secularist establishment by detaining more than 50 current and former military commanders.  The detentions have electrified Turkey as the most sweeping move to date by the Islamist-rooted AK to redefine the Turkish republic by challenging the traditional dominance of the military as its protector. That protection to date has included the military's toppling of four governments since 1960 in the name of safeguarding the republic's Kemalist secular identity. Ozgur Ogrit, a correspondent for "Hurriyet Daily News" in Istanbul, says it is impossible to predict what will happen next. "This is uncharted territory for Turkey because, since last month, everyday you see the same phrase in the headlines: for the first time in Turkey, for the first time in republican history, for the first time this general came to give testimony, or this general was arrested, or a secret room of the military was inspected," Ogrit says. "I don't think anyone in Turkey can tell you where we are going to go from here." – Radio Free Europe

China

Eric Follath writes:  Beijing's leaders are behaving like the masters of the world, as aloof as if they could walk on water. The Dalai Lama says he prays every night for the enlightenment of the Chinese. He dreams of the rebirth of Chinese virtues like modesty and a sense of proportion. He can dream on. – Der Spiegel

Frank Ching writes:  China should abandon its hard-line policy toward Tibet and instead work to attract Tibetan exiles to return to their homeland. It must begin by stopping the ridiculous caricature of the Dalai Lama as a terrorist and a separatist. Castigating the Dalai Lama, who continues to enjoy the respect, indeed the reverence, of most Tibetans will simply perpetuate Chinese policy failures. – China Post

Americas

For the first time, U.S. officials plan to embed American intelligence agents in Mexican law enforcement units to help pursue drug cartel leaders and their hit men operating in the most violent city in Mexico, according to U.S. and Mexican officials.  The increasingly close partnership between the two countries, born of frustration over the exploding death toll in Ciudad Juarez, would place U.S. agents and analysts in a Mexican command center in this border city to share drug intelligence gathered from informants and intercepted communications. – Washington Post

The diplomatic row over the Falkland Islands deepened dramatically after Argentina announced that it would take its protests over British oil exploration to the United Nations today. At the Rio Group summit in Mexico yesterday, Buenos Aires won unprecedented support from other Latin American states for its demand that the UK stop drilling in waters near the islands. Argentina’s Foreign Minister is to meet the UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki Moon. A resolution is also set to be tabled in the UN General Assembly condemning Britain for allowing Ocean Guardian to begin drilling 60 miles north of the islands after Argentina annouced new shipping controls. Desire Petroleum, which is operating the rig, has said that the drilling will take about a month. Further exploration is likely by other companies. David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, insisted that the exploration was fully within international law. But ministers admit privately that the UK has been preparing for a diplomatic confrontation with Argentina for months. – Times of London

Latin American leaders meeting in Mexico have agreed to form their own interest bloc without the United States and Canada. Mexican President Felipe Calderon proposed creating the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States at the Rio Group summit on February 23 in Playa del Carmen, Mexico. The heads of the group's 23 member states supported the idea. The new organization is dedicated to the defense of democracy and human rights, and to the fostering of cooperation. But few other details have been established, and setting it up is likely to take years. The leaders will assess their progress at a summit next year in Venezuela, and in 2012 in Chile. In Washington, State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said the United States doesn't feel that the creation of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States is antagonistic toward the United States or Canada. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

The Cuban political prisoner Orlando Zapata died in hospital yesterday, 85 days after he went on a hunger strike. A spokesman for Havana's Hermanos Ameijeiras hospital, where the 42-year-old political prisoner was transferred from a smaller clinic near his prison in the eastern province of Camaguey earier this week, said Zapata died at 1:00 pm (1800 GMT). "Indignant" dissidents blamed the Government for the death of Mr Zapata, who was jailed in 2003 and deemed a prisoner of conscience by Amnesty International. He had been on a hunger strike to protest prison conditions that he blamed for his deteriorating health. Oswaldo Paya, the leader of the Christian Liberation Movement dissident group, said the movement was “not seeking martyrs." He said that Mr Zapata had died "defending the freedom, rights and dignity of all Cubans". – Times of London

Southeast Asia

Thailand's anti-government "red shirts" on Wednesday announced plans to hold mass rallies from mid-March in a bid to force the dissolution of parliament and new elections. The United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), which backs ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, will rally in the capital in what is expected to be its first lengthy demonstration since violent protests last April. Jatuporn Prompan, one of the UDD's leaders, said protesters would gather in the provinces and around Bangkok on March 12 before merging on March 14 at Sanam Luang, an open area in the capital traditionally used for political rallies. Another UDD leader, Nattawut Sakeua, added: "We want the government to dissolve parliament and let people vote. If we get a million people and the government remains stubborn, we will meet to review our strategy." Analysts doubt it can bring a million demonstrators to the capital and are skeptical even that turnout would topple the government. But the protest will be another setback for an unstable coalition hamstrung by internal disputes and an intractable five-year political crisis that most analysts believe could drag on for years and continue to squeeze foreign investment. - Reuters