FPI Overnight Brief: February 23, 2010

A senior member of al Qaeda's Yemen wing who the Yemeni government said it killed has emerged on an internet forum, threatening to carry out attacks in the United States. Yemen declared an open war on al Qaeda on its territory last month after the group's regional off-shoot claimed responsibility for a failed bomb attack on a Detroit-bound plane in December that grabbed the world's attention. "Today, you have attacked us in the middle of our household, so wait for what will befall you in the middle of yours ... We will blow up the earth from beneath your feet," Qasim al-Raymi, the wing's military commander, said in an article posted earlier this month on a website used by Islamist militants. Yemen said in January it had killed six regional militant leaders in air strikes, but al Qaeda later denied this, and other senior members Sanaa had said were dead, such as deputy leader Saeed al-Shehri, have since re-emerged on websites used by Islamist militants. – Reuters

Hajji Zaman Ghamsharik, the Afghan warlord accused of helping Osama bin Laden escape from the Americans at Tora Bora, had so many enemies that his assassination on Monday came as no particular surprise. What was a surprise was the manner of Hajji Zaman’s death: by a suicide bomber wearing an explosive vest, who killed him and 14 others as they gathered at a ceremony to distribute land to returning refugees at a village in his tribal stomping grounds near the eastern city of Jalalabad...Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan are usually quick to take responsibility for suicide bombings. Not in this case; when asked about Hajji Zaman’s killing, the usually garrulous Taliban spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid, said he did not know who did it. – New York Times

Chris Harnisch writes:  The U.S. State Department made the grudgingly painful yet correct decision to cut humanitarian aid to Somalia, and it must continue to ward off the pressure and criticism thrown its away by the United Nations.  Unfortunately though, the suffering of the Somali people will continue and the U.S. will remain at risk until the Obama administration recognizes the severity of the threat posed by al Shabaab and develops a comprehensive strategy to mitigate that threat.  – The Weekly Standard Blog

U.S. Special Operations Forces ordered an airstrike that killed at least 27 civilians in southern Afghanistan and the soldiers may not have satisfied rules of engagement designed to avoid the killing of innocents, Afghan and coalition officials said Monday.  The airstrike Sunday hit a group of minibuses in a remote part of the south near the border between Uruzgan and Daykundi provinces. The area is hundreds of miles from Marjah, where the largest allied offensive since 2001 is now in its second week. But the airstrike nonetheless illustrated one of the major problems for coalition forces as they try to win over civilians in Marjah and across Afghanistan: figuring out who is a civilian and who is an insurgent—and not killing the civilians. – Wall Street Journal

America's top military officer, after returning from a trip to the Middle East, said he was worried about the "unintended consequences" of an attack on Iran's nuclear program. Speaking to reporters at the Pentagon on Monday, Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Iran's path toward building a nuclear weapon was an overarching concern from all the countries he visited. Those countries include Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. "Let me be clear: We owe [Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates] and [President Obama] a range of options for this threat. We owe the American people our readiness," Adm. Mullen said. "But, as I have said many times, I worry a lot about the unintended consequences of any sort of military action. For now, the diplomatic and the economic levers of international power are, and ought to be, the levers first pulled." – Washington Times

Richard Grenell writes:  Team Obama has spent the year dithering and hoping that doing nothing would allow the opposition inside Iran time to peacefully bring down Ahmadinejad's government. But while the Obama team nervously talks among themselves, they have missed the opportunity to make the Internet available to the thousands of student protesters inside Iran or to implement harsh sanctions on the government that could push Ahmadinejad over the cliff and deliver the fatal blow to his presidency. The Obama administration should cease making the old, tired claim that American involvement would undermine the opposition by playing into the hands of Ahmadinejad's re-cycled message that this is an American CIA coup on his presidency…The lack of Obama leadership and assistance to the opposition inside Iran is now prohibiting the fall of a dictatorship on the brink.  – Huffington Post

FPI Executive Director Jamie Fly writes:  In sum, Iran is laying the groundwork required to eventually pursue a weapons capability on relatively short notice (the Institute for Science and International Security estimates that they would now only need six months using the LEU they have produced at Natanz) to produce enough HEU for a weapon. Thursday's IAEA report implies that they may not require significant additional work to produce the warhead itself. This timeline, of course, assumes they are not already producing LEU or highly enriched uranium (HEU) at a covert facility. Although some experts may quibble with the terminology, it appears that an incremental breakout is underway. The Iranians are methodically preparing the capabilities needed to produce a weapon, all the while suffering few consequences. – Shadow Government

Tom Mahnken writes:  Given the enduring importance of nuclear weapons in U.S. national security, the administration's request for additional funding for the U.S. nuclear weapons infrastructure is a welcome development…In the end, however, the administration's budget request is but a partial solution. The United States is the only nuclear power that is not modernizing its arsenal, and neither the administration nor Congress shows any inclination to change that fact. The newest weapons on the U.S. arsenal were designed decades ago, and the expertise to design new ones represents a critical shortfall. Absent modernization, the United States will eventually face the prospect of unilateral nuclear disarmament. – Shadow Government

Stephen Schwartz writes:  Americans should pay attention to the unfortunate outcome of UN-EU-OSCE rule in the Balkans, since the abdication of global responsibility proposed by the Obama administration is predicated on a greater world-wide role for these increasingly-discredited international organizations. Kosovo’s independence should be guaranteed, to defeat radical Islamists who have returned to the Balkans as a theatre for their malign operations, as well as to hold the line against Russian scheming in the region. America made a promise to the Kosovars, and the Kosovars believe that America keeps its promises. The Kosovars should not see their hope in our integrity disappointed. It's time for EULEX to go home. – The Weekly Standard Blog

A British oil rig started drilling in disputed waters off the Falkland Islands on Monday, as Argentina tried to rally support from Latin American nations for a diplomatic statement backing Argentina's claim to the islands and criticizing the U.K. for violating Argentine sovereignty...If Britain finds large amounts of oil, relations could get stickier. Following a three-month journey from Scotland, the oil-drilling rig Ocean Guardian sank its initial well Monday, said a spokesman for Desire Petroleum PLC, one of four small exploration companies that have contracted the rig to drill as many as 10 wells. Analysts say excitement in the investor community is mixed with caution. "It's reasonably high risk, since we have no commercial discoveries out there," said Peter Hitchens, an analyst at brokerage firm Panmure Gordon.  – Wall Street Journal