FPI Overnight Brief: February 5, 2010

The War

Sen. Kit Bond wrote to President Obama: Some have tried to use Abdulmutallab’s sudden cooperation as a justification for prosecuting this foreign terrorist in an Article III court, but I believe this development supports an opposing view. Because we treated him in this fashion, we followed Miranda and advised him of his right to remain silent, losing five crucial weeks for obtaining imminent threat information. Miranda is issued when statements from the accused are needed to obtain a conviction, but in this case we did not need his own statements as the chemical evidence he was wearing and over 200 witnesses would ably suffice; hence, the decision to Mirandize made no sense on a practical or strategic level. Additionally, Abdulmutallab’s family was key in gaining his cooperation, and in most cases the suicide bomber does not have a moderate Islamic family willing to work with the United States; in fact, the opposite is most often the case (as with the suicide bomber that killed seven CIA officers in Khost, whose wife applauded her husband’s actions). – Senator Bond’s Office

[I]t has been more than a week since officials began investigating rumors that the leader of the Pakistan Taliban succumbed to wounds from a missile strike by an American drone aircraft…Mr. Mehsud has been reported dead once before, last year, only to turn up alive and begin launching brazen attacks on Pakistan's cities. His forces are battling Pakistani soldiers in the country's northwestern mountains; in Afghanistan, he aided December's al Qaeda suicide bombing that killed seven U.S. Central Intelligence Agency employees. His death would mark a major victory in the fight against the Taliban and al Qaeda, with whom he is closely linked, say U.S. and Pakistani officials. "We won't know for certain until the Taliban want us to know," said Rustam Shah Moh mand, a former Pakistani official who spent much of his career in the tribal areas of Pakistan, where Mr. Mehsud operated and may have perished. – Wall Street Journal

The Obama administration is seeking billions in budget increases to target terrorism threats from abroad, especially Pakistan and Yemen, with boosts for surveillance and attack drones, special-operations forces and a new military cybercommand. The focus is on regions that have served as insurgent sanctuaries, where U.S. counterterrorism officials say the next attack against America is likely being planned. Pentagon aid to Pakistan would balloon to $1.2 billion in 2011, aimed at bolstering its war on internal militants. And military funding to target al Qaeda could double in Yemen, where the U.S. spent more than $6 million last year just on aerial surveillance provided by drones, according to internal documents obtained by the Associated Press…The boost in Pentagon funding would also target a wider array of enemies, from al Qaeda and allied militant networks and dangerous nation-states, to sophisticated computer hackers and homegrown insurgents armed with dirty bombs. – Associated Press

The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, whose gloomy assessment of the war last summer prompted the White House to boost troop levels, said Thursday that conditions are no longer deteriorating and predicted further improvements this year. "I am not prepared to say that we have turned the corner," Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal told a group of U.S. reporters during a NATO conference here. "I'm not prepared to say we are winning. I am prepared to say we are very much engaged, and I'm confident we're going to see serious progress this year."…Asked why he thought the situation had improved, McChrystal said he could not point to specific measurements, but rather a general sense that security was better in some areas and that the mood among Afghan leaders was more optimistic. – Washington Post

The U.S. military has reprimanded an unusually large number of commanders for battlefield failures in Afghanistan in recent weeks, reflecting a new push by the top brass to hold commanders responsible for major incidents in which troops are killed or wounded, said senior military officials. The military does not release figures on disciplinary actions taken against field commanders. But officials familiar with recent investigations said letters of reprimand or other disciplinary action have been recommended for officers involved in three ambushes in which U.S. troops battled Taliban forces in remote villages in 2008 and 2009. Such administrative actions can scuttle chances for promotion and end a career if they are made part of an officer's permanent personnel file. The investigations are a departure for the U.S. military, which until recently has been reluctant to second-guess commanders whose decisions might have played a role in the deaths of soldiers in enemy action. Disciplinary action has been more common in cases in which U.S. troops have injured or killed civilians. – Washington Post

The way the Taliban use Pakistan’s tribal areas to launch cross-border attacks inside Afghanistan is perhaps the most contentious issue between Pakistan and the United States. But the problem is hardly contained to Pakistan’s lawless tribal areas. Gaping holes in security checks along the border also remain at heavily trafficked crossings, like this one, in Baluchistan Province, where, American officials say, the Taliban’s leaders have taken refuge, out of reach of American and NATO forces...Taliban fighters — anyone, really — can cross and smuggle weapons and drugs, underscoring the challenge to the American war effort in Afghanistan, for which the border presents a much firmer barrier, as Pakistan does not allow NATO or American military forces to cross. – New York Times

The Taliban have said they will not enter into any "deal" with the Afghan government or the West to bring peace to Afghanistan, and their fighters will continue to die to achieve a victory they say is around the corner. At a conference in London last month, Afghan President Hamid Karzai invited the Taliban to a peace council and set out plans to lure fighters down from the hills in return for cash and jobs. But in a statement posted on the Islamists' website on Thursday, the Taliban vowed to "collude" with no one. - Reuters

British troops have launched helicopter advances in Afghanistan's southern Helmand province to prepare the battlefield for a major NATO operation, the British military said on Friday. The British operations are on the outskirts of Marjah, a warren of desert canals held by the Taliban, which U.S. Marines say they intend to seize soon in what will be one of the biggest assaults of the eight-year-old war. British and Afghan troops were carrying out "shaping operations" in Helmand's Nad Ali district as part of an initial phase of Operation Moshtarak, or "together," a large assault which will seize the entire district, the British military said. Nad Ali includes Marjah, which the U.S. Marines describe as the last major Taliban-held bastion in the south of the province, Afghanistan's most violent region, which produces most of the country's illegal opium crop that helps fund the insurgency. - Reuters

Yesterday's attack that killed three US soldiers who were traveling in a convoy in northwestern Pakistan was carried out by a suicide bomber, and was not caused by a remotely detonated roadside bomb as first reported. The suicide attack suggests that the Taliban, who took credit for the attack, had inside information on the presence of US troops in the convoy. The three US soldiers, who have been described variously as Special Operations Forces and civil affairs troops training Pakistan's paramilitary Frontier Corps, were killed when a suicide bomber driving a car rammed into their convoy as it traveled to the opening of a girls' school in the district of Lower Dir…The attack indicates that the Taliban received intelligence on the convoy's movements and knew exactly which car to hit. The suicide bomber stalked the convoy and appeared to know which car was carrying the American soldiers. – Long War Journal

Iran

Australia recently blocked several export shipments to Iran because of concern the cargo may have been destined for Tehran's nuclear weapons programs, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said Thursday. The bans were ordered by the defense minister under laws aimed at preventing the proliferation of material that could be used in weapons of mass destruction. Mr. Rudd declined to say what the material in the shipments was, or give details about when they were blocked. The Australian newspaper first reported the blocked shipments and said one of them was understood to include pumps that could have been used to cool nuclear power plants. The report said there were up to three other shipments - one more than Mr. Rudd mentioned - but that no details were known about them. – Associated Press

Iran has been using delaying tactics instead of taking action to resolve the dispute over its nuclear program, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said on Friday. Westerwelle told Deutschlandfunk radio that Iran would be judged by its actions and not by its words, and that only a serious return to negotiations would prevent further measures such as sanctions being imposed on the Islamic Republic. "For the past two years Iran has repeatedly bluffed and played tricks," Westerwelle said. "It has played for time and of course we in the international community cannot accept a nuclear-armed Iran." - Reuters

Jamsheed Choksy writes: For years Iran's people have been saying that their leaders should be held accountable. They urge the West to freeze the political and religious elites' assets in foreign banks, cut-off IRGC-owned companies from the global economy, and restrict the despots' freedom to travel outside Iran. Iranians at home and abroad suggest knowingly that Iran's leaders will begin to conform to global expectations if internationally-administered justice awaits them. If Iran's global menace and domestic violence are to be curbed, then the U.S. and the world will have take on the Iranian leaders directly. Targeting is one key to success; enforcement on economic and legal fronts is the other. - Forbes

Claudia Schwartz writes: Since the demonstrations are now as much about the mullahs' regime as they are about June's fraudulent elections, empowering the opposition is not just a moral obligation but a strategic one. The Legatum Institute's Prosperity Index ranks Iran's personal freedom at 101 (out of 104 countries), surpassing only Zimbabwe, Jordan, and Pakistan. Despite this poor assessment, the Prosperity Index has attracted tremendous interest inside Iran. The second highest number of visits to the Prosperity Index website from any country since December has been from Iran (out of 171 countries), suggesting that the Iranian people know all too well the difficult conditions they are in, and want to find a better life for themselves. Western support of Eastern European dissidents during the Cold War is an example of the strategic gains that can be brought from supporting opponents of tyrannical regimes. – Standpoint

Democracy and Human Rights

Shadi Hamid and Steven Brooke write: It is safe to say that the Bush administration’s project to promote Middle East democracy failed. It failed because it was never really tried. With the exception of a brief period in 2004 and 2005 when significant pressure was put on Arab regimes, democracy promotion was little more than a rhetorical device. But lost in the shuffle is the fact that one of the strongest rationales for the “freedom agenda” — that the way to defeat terrorism in the long run is by supporting the growth of democratic institutions — hasn’t necessarily been proven wrong, nor should it be so readily discarded due to its unfortunate association with the wrong methods and messengers. But this is precisely what seems to have happened. – Policy Review

The European Union says a new Internet decree in Belarus is a "step in the wrong direction" at a time when Brussels is scrutinizing Minsk's record on issues like free speech and freedom of the press. The EU says President Alyaksandr Lukashenka's decree of February 1 appears to contravene standards set out in the so-called Eastern Partnership -- an initiative aimed at improving ties between the EU and its eastern neighbors…But critics are crying foul. They say the decree, which is due to go into effect on July 1, is a poorly disguised attempt to shut down opposition media on the Internet during the campaign for the next presidential election in early 2011. Indeed, the decree calls on all Internet providers in Belarus to store data on the Internet use of individuals for a full year and to hand that information over to law-enforcement agencies upon request. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Pakistan

A bomb tore through a bus carrying Shiite Muslim worshippers in the southern Pakistani city of Karachi on Friday, killing at least 11 people, officials said. Karachi has seen a number of attacks aimed at minority Shiites in recent weeks, including one that killed dozens at a procession for a religious holiday and sparked subsequent riots. Extremists from Pakistan's Sunni Muslim majority have been blamed. – Associated Press

Defense

Mackenzie Eaglen writes: Ultimately, the persistent underfunding of defense plans cannot be solved without a sustained commitment by Congress to increase the core defense budget at a rate that takes defense cost inflation, which outpaces the general economy, into account. Adequately funding Pentagon plans would stop the bleeding in many defense modernization programs. The steady erosion of modernization plans only makes it more expensive to purchase new equipment when the older systems have worn out. To address these concerns, the Congressional Budget Resolution should grow the defense budget at least 5 percent above inflation in FY 2011 and beyond in order to address the Pentagon's underfunded plans and remedy many cuts from last year's inadequate defense budget. This would allow more robust procurement, increased build rates, greater economies of scale, enhanced contractor competition, and a healthier defense industrial base. – Heritage Foundation

Watch Rep. Buck McKeon’s remarks on defense spending at Heritage from yesterday here.

A small, experimental jet intended to demonstrate a UAV's ability to operate off aircraft carriers just might see operational action, according to two top U.S. Navy officials. The aircraft is the X-47B, being developed by Northrop Grumman under the Navy Unmanned Combat Air System (N-UCAS) program. Roughly $2 billion has been added by the Pentagon over the next five years to give the program a major boost. Most of that money, said Rear Adm. Bill Burke, was at the behest of the new Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). "What we think it ought to do is deliver some sort of capability," Burke, the Navy's QDR director, told reporters Feb. 4 at the Pentagon. "It would be a real program; it wouldn't be a demo. We'd like it to be able to deliver kinetic effects or do [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] missions for us." - Defense News

Google has turned to the National Security Agency for technical assistance to learn more about the computer network attackers who breached the company’s cybersecurity defenses last year, a person with direct knowledge of the agreement said Thursday. The collaboration between Google, the world’s largest search engine company, and the federal agency in charge of global electronic surveillance raises both civil liberties issues and new questions about how much Google knew about the electronic thefts it experienced when it stated last month that it might end its business operations in China, where it said the attacks originated. The agreement was first reported on Wednesday evening by The Washington Post. By turning to the N.S.A., which has no statutory authority to investigate domestic criminal acts, instead of the Department of Homeland Security, which does have such authority, Google is clearly seeking to avoid having its search engine, e-mail and other Web services regulated as part of the nation’s “critical infrastructure.” – New York Times

Missile Defense

Romania’s top defense body approved an American proposal to base missile interceptors there, the country’s president said Thursday in a hastily arranged announcement. The president, Traian Basescu, said in a statement that Romania, a former Warsaw Pact member and now part of NATO, was prepared to negotiate with the United States to accept ground-based interceptors as part of an antiballistic missile defense system. He said it could be working by 2015. While the participation of Poland and the Czech Republic in the missile shield had been well known, the possibility that Romania would join them was not. Romania made its announcement as Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates was in Turkey for a NATO meeting. – New York Times

China

Vietnam is pushing hard behind the scenes to bring more foreign players into negotiations so that China will have to bargain in a multilateral setting with all Southeast Asian nations that have territorial claims in the South China Sea. This goes against China’s preference, which is to negotiate one on one with each country. In other words, Vietnam wants all parties at the same table to stave off China, the behemoth. This strategy of “internationalizing” the issue is one that smaller Asian countries like Vietnam may adopt more often as they wrangle with the Chinese juggernaut on many fronts. The thinking is: As China’s political power in the world expands, smaller nations will gain leverage over China only if they force it to negotiate in multilateral forums. – New York Times

Editorial: Two dangers arise from [the] loss of Western self-confidence [in Sino-American relations]. One is of trying to placate China. The delay in Mr Obama’s meeting with the Dalai Lama in order to smooth his visit to China in November gave too much ground, as well as turning an issue of principle into a bargaining chip. America needs to stand firmer. Beefing up the deterrent capacity of Taiwan, which China continues to threaten with hundreds of missiles, is in the interests of peace. Mr Obama should therefore proceed with the arms sales and European governments should back him. If American companies, such as Boeing, lose Chinese custom for political reasons, European firms should not be allowed to supplant them. On the other hand the West should not be panicked into unnecessary confrontation. Rather than ganging up on China in an effort to “contain” it, the West would do better to get China to take up its share of the burden of global governance. Too often China wants the power due a global giant while shrugging off the responsibilities, saying that it is still a poor country. It must be encouraged to play its part—for instance, on climate change, on Iran and by allowing its currency to appreciate. As the world’s largest exporter, China’s own self-interest lies in a harmonious world order and robust trading system. – The Economist

This week's trial of the former judicial chief of Chongqing, part of the massive crackdown on organized crime in one of China's biggest cities, exposes the challenges the central government faces in its push to reform a corruption-plagued legal system. Wen Qiang, the 55-year-old former head of Chongqing's justice department and deputy police chief, stands accused of taking millions of dollars worth of bribes over the course of his career in exchange for providing a protective umbrella over the city's gangsters, including his sister-in-law, who has already been sentenced to 18 years in prison for running illegal casinos. Mr. Wen, the highest-ranking official to be snared in the Chongqing crackdown, has also been charged with raping a university student and luring young women into prostitution. The problem of judicial corruption threatens to undermine public confidence in the legal system just as China pushes to further develop the rule of law. Foreign companies often avoid the country's court system altogether in favor of arbitration, typically conducted outside China. In court Wednesday, Mr. Wen admitted to receiving money but said it was offered as gifts and not in return for favors. – Wall Street Journal

Minxin Pei writes: Today, flush with $2.3 trillion in hard currency, China no longer has the same need of foreign capital and its government has readjusted its economic policy accordingly. Because state-owned enterprises are both national champions and political patronage machines (the Communist Party can reward its loyalists with lucrative appointments in these state-owned firms), Beijing’s policy now clearly favours them over both domestic and foreign capital. As for Google, it has committed a double offense. Its search technology poses a clear and present threat to the party’s regime security, while its capacity to dominate the Internet search business would deprive China of its own national champion, Baidu (which, although a private business, is easier to control). Google’s senior management may have learned a thing or two about dealing with a one-party regime through its unhappy foray into China. It’s unclear, though, whether other Western firms have learned anything at all at Google’s expense. – The Diplomat

Iraq

A suicide attacker detonated a car bomb Friday alongside a crowd of Shiite pilgrims walking to a holy city south of Baghdad, killing at least 27 people and wounding 60, Iraqi police officials said. Shiite pilgrims have been targeted by several bombings in recent days, and Friday's attack struck during the culmination of a pilgrimage in which hundreds of thousands walked to the city of Karbala to mark a Shiite holy day. The blast occurred shortly after noon just east of one of three main entrances to Karbala, a police official said. At least 60 were wounded in the explosion, he added. Two mortar rounds hit the same area after the car bomb exploded, the official said, adding that the death toll was likely to rise. – Associated Press

Israel

With an inadvertent bit of shorthand, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton set off a buzz in diplomatic circles on Wednesday, and may have offered a glimpse into how the Obama administration hopes to revive the stalled peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. Answering a question at a news conference about how the talks might be revived, Mrs. Clinton said, “Of course, we believe that the 1967 borders, with swaps, should be the focus of the negotiations over borders.” Such a concept is not new. For a generation of Middle East peacemakers, Israel’s borders before the Arab-Israeli war are the obvious starting point for negotiations over the shape of a Palestinian state. But Mrs. Clinton’s mention of them went farther than the Obama administration’s standard script on the Middle East: that the positions of Israel and the Palestinians can be reconciled…In particular, Mrs. Clinton’s reference may appeal to the Palestinians, who have long declared that the 1967 borders should be the basis for negotiations. The United States is trying desperately to persuade the Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas, to return to the bargaining table. – New York Times

Georgia

Residents of South Ossetia, the tiny separatist enclave at the center of the August 2008 war between Georgia and Russia, petitioned United States Senator Richard G. Lugar on Thursday to warn against supplying the Georgian government with weapons, saying they could be used against civilians. The petition is a response to a staff report released in late December by Mr. Lugar’s office, which calls into question Washington’s decision to stop providing weapons to Georgia after its brief war with Russia. The report, titled “Striking the Balance: U.S. Policy and Stability in Georgia,” says that the policy has left Georgia “under a de facto arms embargo” that contributes to regional instability. The report stops short of recommending the resumption of arms supplies, but highlights the quandary Washington has faced for 18 months, as it seeks to improve its relationship with Moscow without abandoning a commitment to help Georgia join NATO, a process that involves upgrading its military. Under current conditions, the report says, “Georgia will not only have difficulty providing for its own territorial defense needs, but remain susceptible to the internal strife and external manipulation that often accompany such national insecurity.” - New York Times

Obama Administration

Helle Dale writes: It is perfectly understandable that President Obama has decided not to travel to Madrid. Snubbing Brussels sends an important message that Washington is less than impressed with the EU’s leadership. He must though be careful not to undermine the broader relationship with Europe as a whole, especially the ties with European nation states. For many reasons, there is a real impression emerging in Europe that Obama does not see himself as an Atlanticist. For Russia, China, and Iran among others, a divided transatlantic alliance is music to their ears, and will only weaken American leadership in the world. – The Foundry

European leaders are getting a dose of reality about the limits of President Obama's patience with their long-established diplomatic traditions, as his administration seeks to change nearly two decades of U.S.-European Union summit protocol. Mr. Obama's disappointment with European allies during his first year in office, culminating in his decision to skip a long-planned May summit in Madrid, should not come as a surprise, diplomats and analysts said. In spite of unusual enthusiasm on the Continent about his 2008 election, they said, Europeans have delivered much less than the new president expected on Afghanistan, climate change and other items high on Mr. Obama's agenda. Many Europeans have had their own hopes dashed, officials on both sides of the Atlantic said. After eight often testy years dealing with President George W. Bush, they thought Mr. Obama would change the world to their liking, but now realize that any American president will act in his country's interests first. – Washington Times

Europe/Russia

Want to ensure a bigger draw for your lackluster candidate? In Ukraine, just contact Vladimir Boyko and he'll rent you a crowd. Mr. Boyko says his company, Easy Work, has assembled a database of several thousand students and can mobilize them on a day's notice to turn up at demonstrations anywhere in Kiev, stand for hours at a time, and cheer or jeer on cue. "We'll do business with any political party. Ideology doesn't matter to us," says the 21-year-old Web-design major at Kiev Polytechnic Institute. "It matters even less to most students," he adds, grinning. "They have become tired of politicians. They will rally only for money."…The rent-a-crowd business, though not illegal, is taboo in Ukraine. Politicians deny using it, and many people in the business prefer the benign Russian term sobrat tolpu, which means to gather a crowd. But it has prospered amid disillusionment with the Orange Revolution, the massive peaceful uprising that overturned a tainted 2004 election result and ushered in the country's pro-Western leadership. – Wall Street Journal

Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has called for a second Orange Revolution if her opponent rigs a weekend presidential runoff that is almost certain to have a lasting impact on the country. The fiery Orange Revolution heroine made her call after outgoing President Viktor Yushchenko today enacted a new law scrapping the requirement for a quorum of observers from both sides to approve counts at each polling station in the February 7 vote. The legislation was initiated and pushed through parliament on February 3 by the party of pro-Moscow candidate Viktor Yanukovych, Tymoshenko's rival for president. An angry Tymoshenko lashed out at the measure at a news conference today, calling it a "death warrant" for Ukraine's democracy. She said parliament had bypassed committee hearings and used other "unprecedented" violations of legislative procedure. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Korean Peninsula

President Barack Obama said he’ll keep North Korea off the U.S. government’s list of states that sponsor terrorism. North Korea “does not meet the statutory criteria” for inclusion on the list, that automatically imposes sanctions, Obama wrote in a letter to congressional leaders yesterday. Former President George W. Bush removed North Korea in 2008 after the communist state agreed to inspections of sites suspected of being part of the regime’s nuclear program. It had been designated as a state sponsor of terrorism since 1988. Last June, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the administration was considering re-designating North Korea after it conducted nuclear and missile tests earlier in the year. – Bloomberg News

North Korea said Friday it will free an American missionary who entered the country on Christmas Day to protest human rights abuses. State media in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, said the government decided to "leniently forgive" Robert Park, 28, of Tucson, Ariz., because of his "sincere repentance of his wrong doings." North Korea did not say when it would release Park. Park walked from China into North Korea across the frozen Tumen River carrying letters calling on leader Kim Jong Il to step down and to close the country's gulag of labor camps for political prisoners. – Washington Post

A senior Chinese Communist Party official will visit Pyongyang next week in what appears to be a move to press North Korea to return to stalled nuclear disarmament talks, a South Korean news agency said on Friday…The moves comes as pressure is mounting on North Korea to end its year-long boycott of international nuclear talks and win rewards that can prop up its broken economy. - Reuters

Nearly two months after the seizure [in Thailand] of a charter plane carrying 35 tons of weapons shipped from North Korea, the mystery remains as to where the rockets and other armaments were headed. Iran, Sri Lanka and the United Arab Emirates were reportedly listed on the flight plan; the former Soviet republic of Georgia was cited as the charter company's operations base; and the captain has said that Kiev, Ukraine, was the destination. This week, Iran denied that it was the intended recipient, according to wire reports, arguing that it had no need for the weaponry because it has its own arms industry, which makes rockets, tanks, jet fighters, light submarines and missiles. Predictably, North Korea is not talking. – Los Angeles Times