FPI Overnight Brief: February 4, 2010

Marc Thiessen writes:  The mishandling of Abdulmutallab’s questioning is an intelligence failure of massive proportions. And it highlights the problem with the Obama administration’s approach to terrorist interrogation. The administration’s approach is built on a law-enforcement model unsuited for the challenges of the war on terror. Here is why: In law enforcement, interrogators generally question terrorists after an attack (or in the case of Abdulmutallab, an attempted attack) has occurred; their goal is to extract a confession in order to secure a conviction. In such circumstances, patience is a virtue. The wheels of justice turn slowly, and interrogators have all the time in the world to build rapport with the criminal, or use the plea bargaining process to get him to talk. But in a time of war, speed is of the essence. Interrogators must get information from the terrorist quickly, before an attack occurs. Their goal is not to secure a conviction; it is to stop the terrorists from striking in the first place. In such circumstances, patience is not a virtue; patience can be deadly. And time is on the side of the terrorist withholding the information. – The Daily Caller

The commentary panel of Fox News Channel’s program Special Report w/Bret Baier weighs in on this and other topics in the Wednesday evening online show.

David Ignatius writes:  In their joint operations against Taliban militants hiding in the tribal areas, the United States and Pakistan seem to have embraced a classic bit of battlefield advice: Don't get mad, get even.  Since the beginning of 2010, the United States has stepped up the pace of its Predator strikes, with quiet Pakistani support. These attacks appear to have killed Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud, top lieutenant Qarimullah Hussain, who trained Taliban suicide bombers, and other key members of the insurgency, a senior administration official said Tuesday.  Though the Predators launch their Hellfire missiles from the lofty altitude of 10,000 feet, make no mistake: This is an intense and unrelenting campaign of assassination. It continued Tuesday with a fusillade of at least 17 missiles in North Waziristan, in an apparent assault on senior al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters. – Washington Post

Morgan Roach writes:  al-Qaeda’s strength in Africa is expanding.  Cells in northern Africa are spreading southwards to Nigeria, eager to recruit impressionable Muslims to join their international terror network.  In the wake of January’s violent clash between Christians and Muslims in the diverse city of Jos, al-Qaeda’s immediate reaction was to equip and train young Muslims for jihad. According to the Washington Post, Abdelmalek Droukdel, leader of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) announced that al-Qaeda is prepared to provide training, manpower, munitions, and various other resources to push Nigeria’s young men into jihad.  Considering the high levels of poverty and limited governance throughout the country, many Nigerians are left susceptible to extremist activity.  While roughly 40 percent of Nigeria’s 149 million citizens are Christian and 50 percent are Muslim, the two religions are geographically divided with the Muslims residing in the northern part of the country and the Christians in the south. – The Foundry

Last month, an official told the Daily Telegraph that [Britain] "has the greatest concentration of active al Qaeda supporters [in the West]," posing a threat to Britain and "the rest of the world.”…So why is this particular front in the war on terrorism proving such a challenge? Haras Rafiq, a British Muslim who founded a think tank to combat Islamic extremism, worries that a big share of the blame goes to his own government. For decades, he says, Britain tolerated plotting by domestic Islamic radicals as long as they targeted other countries, often ones in the Middle East. "We gave them freedom to preach violence and extremism -- [as long as] they were preaching it abroad and not in the U.K. They used that freedom to take over community organizations, mosques, TV stations," he says. "They've been building capacity for their viewpoint." He describes the radicals' techniques as strikingly reminiscent of those of 20th-century communists and fascists. The Islamists have also mimicked the Irish Republican movement by using ostensibly non-violent political groups to covertly radical ends. – Foreign Policy

A bomb on a parked motorcycle exploded early Wednesday on the outskirts of the holy city of Karbala, killing at least 20 Shiite pilgrims and wounding around 90 others, officials said.  he blast was the latest in a string of attacks this week that have targeted pilgrims making their way to an important Shiite religious observance in Karbala, raising fears of a spike in attacks when the pilgrimage culminates Friday. The bomb exploded at about 11 a.m. in an area known as Ibrahimia, near the east entrance —one of three— into Karbala, the official said. The city is located 50 miles south of Baghdad. – Associated Press

Throwing up a challenge to the increasingly violent tactics of Iran’s ruling elite, the country’s two leading opposition figures are urging protesters to defy the government and take to the streets in an antigovernment rally on Feb. 11.  The government announced on Tuesday that it would execute nine protesters; two were hanged last week. The prosecutor also asked Wednesday for the death sentence for a 24-year-old protester, having charged him with moharebeh, or waging war against God, for “throwing rocks during protests,” the news agency ISNA reported. The statements by the two opposition leaders, Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hussein Moussavi, appeared to reflect a unanimous decision to stand fast in the face of the brutal treatment of protesters by the government.  The statement from Mr. Karroubi, posted Wednesday on his Web site, called for free elections, the release of political prisoners and an end to what he described as a police state created since the June 12 presidential election. He renewed his accusation that the results of the election were “engineered,” and dismissed claims that he was seeking a compromise with the government.  – New York Times

Discussions amongst world powers over imposing possible sanctions on Iran will complicate the situation and might make it harder to find a diplomatic solution, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said on Thursday.  Speaking to reporters during a visit to France, Yang said he wanted to see more direct talks between Iran and the international community over Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Western powers are pushing for a fourth round of U.N. sanctions against Iran to try to force it to enter into negotiate over its nuclear ambitions. However, China, which buys a lot of oil from Iran, appears unwilling to slap more restrictions on Tehran, complicating the chances of getting a broad agreement within the United Nations Security Council. - Reuters

A senior Chinese official said on Thursday that China would not bow to pressure from the United States to revalue its currency, which President Obama says is kept at an artificially low level to give China an unfair advantage in selling its exports.  The official, Ma Zhaoxu, a Foreign Ministry spokesman, said at a regular news conference here that “wrongful accusations and pressure will not help solve this issue.”  Mr. Ma was reacting to remarks on trade that Mr. Obama made on Wednesday when he met with Democratic senators in Washington. Mr. Obama stopped short of saying China manipulates its currency, but his words on China’s economic policies were harsh — the United States, he said, has “to make sure our goods are not artificially inflated in price and their goods are not artificially deflated in price; that puts us at a huge competitive disadvantage.” – New York Times

Ilan Berman writes:  There's an old saying, familiar to historians and foreign policy practitioners, that "geography is destiny." A modern twist to this rule is that demography is no less decisive.  Russia is finding this out the hard way. Over the past several years, under the direction of former President (and current Prime Minister) Vladimir Putin and his handpicked protege, Dmitry Medvedev, Russia may have re-emerged on the international scene with a vengeance. But behind all of the Kremlin's contemporary geopolitical bluster, the successor state of the once-mighty Soviet Union is caught in a demographic and socioeconomic death spiral.  – Washington Times

John Bruton writes:  To be heard and taken seriously in the U.S., the EU needs to present a united front. It needs to have something meaningful and strong to say. It must be prepared to be critical, if necessary. That requires prior work at home, among the 27 EU members, to establish a common position on the message to convey. The member states need to put Europe's general interests first and avoid competing with one another to develop special relationships with the U.S. at the expense of other EU members. What is be done now? The new EU president, Herman Van Rompuy, may be able to put things right. Though the 2010 meeting was due to take place in Europe, it is more important to maintain the regular rhythm of EU-U.S. summits than it is to maintain the established rotation. So perhaps, exceptionally, Van Rompuy and the European leaders could offer to come to the U.S. this year at a time that fits everyone's busy agenda. – Washington Post