FPI Overnight Brief: February 1, 2010

Iran

Iran's top judge said on Monday he would not succumb to political pressure from hardliners to carry out more executions against anti-government protesters, saying any such decision would be based on the law. Iran hanged two people last week in connection with unrest that erupted after last year's disputed June presidential vote. The hangings were condemned by human rights groups and the West, which Iran accuses of backing the opposition.  "These demands (by hardliners) are political in nature and are against the law and Sharia," Larijani was quoted as saying on the judiciary's official website Dadsara. Some hardliners, including an influential cleric, have urged the judiciary to execute more opposition supporters to end the demonstrations which continued on-and-off despite a government crackdown and a wave of arrests. - Reuters

Israel

A top Hamas militant leader found dead in his Dubai hotel room on Jan. 20 was a key link in smuggling operations ferrying Iranian weapons to Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip, and replacing him could take months, current and former Israeli security officials said on Sunday. Hamas has accused Israel of assassinating Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, 50 years old, and vowed revenge. Mahmoud al-Zahar, one of the movement's top Gaza-based leaders, warned Israel in an interview on Saturday with Al Jazeera that "Hamas can hit all Israeli targets abroad—anytime, anywhere." - Wall Street Journal

Japan

Laura Rozen reports:  As the diplomatic fallout from Beijing over the $6.4 billion U.S. arms sale to Taiwan is still being measured, rival Asian power Japan has emerged as an increasingly important player in international negotiations on Iran, U.S. officials and foreign policy experts said.  As a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, with an avowed interest in nuclear disarmament, and a veteran Japanese diplomat at the helm of the UN atomic watchdog agency, Japan has found its role on international negotiations with Iran elevated with a push from the Obama administration, in particular as U.S.-Chinese relations are going through an extended adjustment period.  Japan’s strong relations with both Washington and Iran have also led it to take on a key behind the scenes role in trying to negotiate a possible nuclear fuel swap deal between the West and Iran, regional expert sources said, although there were differing accounts of how promising such efforts have been. - Politico

China

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton called on China Friday to overlook its short-term interest in Iranian oil and consider the long-term implications of a Persian Gulf arms race as it decides whether to support stepped-up international sanctions against Iran. "As we move away from the engagement track, which has not produced the results that some had hoped for, and move forward toward the pressure and sanctions track" in efforts to stop Iran's nuclear program, Clinton said, "China will be under a lot of pressure to recognize the destabilizing impact that a nuclear-armed Iran would have in the Gulf, from which they receive a significant percentage of their oil supplies."..."We understand that right now it seems counterproductive to you to sanction a country from which you get so much of the natural resources your growing economy needs," Clinton said. "But think about the long-term implications." - Washington Post

China's suspension of military exchanges with the U.S. in retaliation for a $6.4 billion arms sale to Taiwan heightens the risk of friction between Beijing and Washington at a time when they are already at loggerheads over a host of security and economic issues.  China announced the freeze on military exchanges Saturday, and summoned the U.S. ambassador to Beijing for a formal complaint, following the Obama administration's announcement Friday that it is proceeding with the sale of antimissile systems, helicopters and other arms to Taiwan...[R]elations are likely to get rockier before any improvement, as the Obama administration appears increasingly frustrated by Beijing's refusal to budge on a range of sensitive subjects, from Iran to currency policy to climate change. Further raising the temperature, President Barack Obama is expected to meet soon with the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan spiritual leader Beijing denounces as a separatist for his efforts to win greater autonomy for the Himalayan region. - Wall Street Journal

The War

Pakistan is investigating reports that the leader of the Taliban in the country died from wounds sustained in mid-January in an airstrike carried out by a U.S. drone aircraft, Pakistani officials said Sunday. Rumors of Hakimullah Mehsud's death have been swirling for days, and officials had been largely dismissive of the reports. But on Sunday, the state-owned Pakistan Television Corp., citing unnamed officials, said Mr. Mehsud had succumbed to wounds sustained in the Jan. 15 airstrike and was recently buried in one of the Taliban-dominated tribal areas that border Afghanistan. The report didn't say exactly when he died...The Jan. 15 missile strike that may have killed Mr. Mehsud hit a compound in a village on the border between South Waziristan and the neighboring North Waziristan tribal area.  - Wall Street Journal

Stephen F. Hayes writes: The failure to obtain more from Abdulmutallab is all the more significant because intelligence officials are conducting fewer interrogations today than at any time since the 9/11 attacks. There are three reasons: (1) The administration has dramatically changed U.S. interrogation policy, sources say, and there is widespread confusion about what is permissible; (2) the HIG, which is supposed to conduct interrogations, does not yet exist; and (3) there are fewer terrorists to interrogate because the administration prefers to kill them with drone strikes rather than capture them on the ground.  The administration never misses a chance to make the last point—indeed, President Obama mentioned it in his State of the Union address. But you cannot interrogate a dead terrorist, which makes it all the more imperative that you get everything you can from any terrorists you do capture. - Weekly Standard

As part of President Obama's plan to dramatically increase the size of the Afghan National Army, the first contingent of additional U.S. troops has arrived and begun taking over the training of new Afghan recruits, hoping to build up the local force to 134,000 battle-ready soldiers in 10 months. - Washington Post

Defense

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has ordered the Air Force and Navy to study what future joint weapons system, available 20 years from now, will be able to surveil an enemy target, survive any electronic interference, and then deliver precision strikes from platforms that either penetrate the foe's defenses or are launched from a distance. That study's results will help Gates shape the Pentagon's requests for funding in the global strike area beginning with the 2012 budget, according to a draft of the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), the final version of which will be released Monday. The congressionally mandated review, done every four years, "clarifies the secretary's priorities" and communicates his "intent for the next several years of the department's work," according to the document...Nations such as China, Iran and North Korea have sophisticated air defense systems that could defeat U.S. manned and unmanned aircraft, and the QDR describes an Air Force and Navy initiative to develop a joint battle concept "to defeat adversaries equipped with anti-access and aerial denial capabilities." - Washington Post

The Obama administration's 2011 defense budget avoids the controversial weapons cuts of last year, according to a draft copy, and continues to shift modest amounts of money to weapons programs such as helicopters, unmanned planes and Special Operations units that are in heavy use Afghanistan and Iraq. The more than $700 billion budget will be released Monday with a congressionally mandated review of defense spending. That review calls on the Pentagon to focus more attention on wars in which enemy forces hide among the populace and use roadside bombs and hit-and-run ambushes to attack U.S. troops. The Quadrennial Defense review also predicts a future dominated by "hybrid" wars, in which traditional states will fight more like guerrillas and insurgents will arm themselves with increasingly sophisticated technology, such as antitank weapons and missiles. - Washington Post

President Obama's pledge to lift the military's ban on openly gay service members this year seems at best headed for extremely close votes in the House and Senate, according to Congress watchers.  The president's proposal needs 218 votes in the House. A bill to repeal the policy known as "don't ask, don't tell" has fewer than 190 co-sponsors. What's more, a number of Democrats representing conservative districts, led by House Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton of Missouri, are set to buck the president and vote against repeal. In the Senate, senators who support the ban could filibuster the 2011 defense authorization bill if it contains a repeal, giving opponents of the ban an uphill task of gathering 60 votes. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the top Republican on the Armed Services Committee, has announced that he opposes a change, allowing conservatives to rally around a war-hero senator. - Washington Times

Russia

Police detained up to 100 anti-Kremlin protesters, including leading opposition figure Boris Nemtsov, in central Moscow Sunday, despite an appeal by rights group Amnesty International to let the rally go ahead. Hundreds of people gathered to protest against what they say is a long-running Kremlin campaign to dismantle the constitutional right to peaceful protest, one of the few avenues open to Russia's weak and fragmented opposition.  Nemtsov, a former deputy prime minister, is leader of the opposition group Solidarity and one of the toughest critics of the Kremlin and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.  At a similar rally in December, police detained 82-year-old Soviet-era activist Lyudmila Alexeyeva, prompting a rebuke from the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama.  - Reuters

Fears are spreading from the Baltic to the Black Sea that Russia may be on the move again. According to experts, Moscow has put out feelers to some half a dozen Western European nations in bids to acquire advanced military hardware. If it bears results, the potential multibillion-dollar Russian shopping spree would be the first of its kind since the end of the Cold War. By far the biggest splash has been made by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin when he used a visit to Paris last November to publicly place an order for a state-of-the-art French warship. But Russia has not lavished its attention on France alone. Advances have also been made to the Scandinavian nations, Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands for what experts say are a variety of advanced weapons platforms.  - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Missile Defense

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reaffirmed on Jan. 29 Washington's willingness to cooperate with Moscow on plans to field a ballistic missile defense system in the Eastern Mediterranean, as she emphasized the importance of European security to the Obama administration. "We are engaged in productive discussions with our European allies about building a new missile defense architecture that will defend all of NATO territory against ballistic missile attack," Clinton said to a packed hall at the Ecole Militaire staff college here.  "Missile defense, we believe, will make this continent a safer place. That safety could extend to Russia if Russia decides to cooperate with us. It is an extraordinary opportunity for us to work together to build our mutual security. We are very serious about cooperating with Russia to develop missile defenses that enhance all of Europe including Russia." Clinton's speech was billed by U.S. officials as an important policy statement.  - Defense News

Yemen

Yemen's government on Sunday rejected a cease-fire offer from the country's northern rebels and issued a fresh demand calling on the militants to pledged not to attack neighboring Saudi Arabia...On Saturday, the leader of the country's northern rebels, Abdel-Malek al-Hawthi, said he is ready to accept the government's original conditions for a cease-fire. That announcement came days after the militants declared a unilateral cease-fire with Saudi Arabia. Both declarations appear to signal an attempt by the rebels to seize on international pressure to end the conflict.  Yemen's Supreme Defense Council on Sunday rejected that offer, but added that it was ready to halt military operations "under a certain framework."  The council said in a statement the rebels must first comply with the government's original cease-fire offer from September, which demanded the militants disarm, release captured soldiers and property, remove roadblocks, withdraw from strategic positions and abide by the constitution. The government added a sixth condition Sunday: The militants must also vow not to attack Saudi Arabia.  - Wall Street Journal

A Yemeni provincial opposition politician thought to be active in a southern separatist movement was gunned down in south Yemen, his party and local residents said on Monday. The Yemeni Socialist Party said Saeed Ahmed Abdullah bin Daoud was shot dead on Friday in the southern town of Zanjibar in Abyan province, adding on its website that the province was in "an unprecedented state of disorder."  Zanjibar residents said bin Daoud, a member of the Socialist party's leadership committee in the town, was also involved with separatists seeking independence from the central government. - Reuters

Iraq

A female suicide bomber laden with explosives blew herself up on Monday among Shi'ite pilgrims on the outskirts of the Iraqi capital, killing at least 41 people, security officials said. Iraq is trying to leave years of bombings, killings and sectarian slaughter behind as it moves to cement security gains made in the last two years and revamp an oil sector that gives Iraq nearly all of its revenues. The bombing took place as thousands of Shi'ite Muslims flooded the streets for the start of an arduous trek to the southern city of Kerbala, 80 km (50 miles) southwest of Baghdad, for the religious rite of Arbain. - Reuters

Caribbean

Editorial: In a country scarred by endemic corruption and waste, relief funds and projects need to be carefully monitored. Those who know Haiti well note that in the years before this latest disaster, civil order had already begun to take root. President René Préval is far more capable than his predecessors, although we wish he would be a lot more visible to his own people and a lot more assertive. Haiti needs strong and honest leadership...It will take a lot of money, creativity, and vigilance and sustained commitment to rebuild Haiti — from Haitians and from the world. There are smart people thinking about how to do it. And that is a start. - New York Times

John Bolton writes:  In a disaster’s immediate aftermath, the biggest problems are logistical: getting food, medicine, shelter and sanitation equipment rapidly to the affected areas, and the most important variables are time and distance. Delegating response to international organizations like the UN, rather than local groups, is a prescription for failure. For those countries that are too poor to have adequate disaster response capabilities, regional organizations like the African Union and ASEAN should be better prepared.  But make no mistake about it: the United States is the default humanitarian world leader because no alternatives are visible well into the future. Who else? The UN? The European Union? The “BRIC” countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China? Forget it. America will take the lead, and we will also take the criticism. Our only grim satisfaction will come if there is an American decline, as some believe inevitable, and many hope for. The rest of the world will miss us when we’re gone.  - New York Post

Five days after suspending medical evacuations of critically ill Haitian earthquake victims, the U.S. government said Sunday evening that it planned to resume them "in the next 12 hours."  "Patients are being identified for transfer, doctors are making sure that it is safe for them to fly, and we are preparing specific in-flight pediatric care aboard the aircraft where needed," said White House spokesman Tommy Vietor in a statement.  He said that Florida is identifying facilities to receive the patients and that some evacuees might be sent to other countries.  Why the evacuations were suspended is unclear as various government authorities have provided different explanations. - Wall Street Journal

Somalia

At least eight civilians, including a woman and a 4-year-old child, were killed when insurgents and government soldiers pounded each other's positions with mortars in the Somali capital overnight, a witness said Monday. Osman Guled said he and other elders on Monday removed the bodies from the rubble of their homes in northern Mogadishu to prepare them for burial. Mr. Guled said the fighting lasted 1½ hours on Sunday evening. "Most of the artillery fire hit houses," he said. Ahmed Daud Dahir, a commander with the presidential guard, said the insurgents lobbed more than six mortars at the presidential palace but no one there was wounded. President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed wasn't in the palace during the attack because he is neighboring Ethiopia for an African Union leaders meeting. - AP

Obama Administration

The Obama administration is quietly working with Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf allies to speed up arms sales and rapidly upgrade defenses for oil terminals and other key infrastructure in a bid to thwart future military attacks by Iran, according to former and current U.S. and Middle Eastern government officials. The initiatives, including a U.S.-backed plan to triple the size of a 10,000-man protection force in Saudi Arabia, are part of a broader push that includes unprecedented coordination of air defenses and expanded joint exercises between the U.S. and Arab militaries, the officials said. All appear to be aimed at increasing pressure on Tehran. The efforts build on commitments by the George W. Bush administration to sell warplanes and antimissile systems to friendly Arab states to counter Iran's growing conventional arsenal. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are leading a regionwide military buildup that has resulted in more than $25 billion in U.S. arms purchases in the past two years alone. - Washington Post