FPI Afternoon Round-Up: December 29, 2009

Iran

Abbas Milani writes: “This weekend's bloody protests during the holiday of Ashura culminate a pattern of persistence and perseverance on the part of the opposition. There can now be little doubt about the movement's staying power. Western countries dealing with Iran must now recognize that the specter of this democratic movement hovers over every negotiation. Sunday's protests might have even ended the regime's delusions that it can once again cow the population into submission.” – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: “Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei clearly is betting he can defeat the opposition Green Movement with brute force. In the past week, security forces have attacked peaceful mourners at the funeral of dissident Ayatollah Ali Montazeri and violated the tradition of restraint associated with the Ashura holiday. The predominant chant in the streets, meanwhile, has shifted to ‘death to Khamenei’ or ‘death to the dictator.’ More street protests can be expected when the movement's new martyr, Ali Habibi Mousavi Khamene, is commemorated. In short, Iran's political crisis now looks like a battle to the death between the regime and its opposition. No one on either side in Tehran is talking about compromise.” – Washington Post

Editorial: “In solidarity with ordinary Iranians who are risking so much, the minimum leaders of freedom loving countries ought to do is keep their Teheran-based ambassadors home beyond the Christmas/New Year holidays. Moreover, why should we not see one Western leader after another interrupt their own vacations to personally speak out in support of the Iranian people's campaign to transform their political system?” – Jerusalem Post

“The speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Ali Larijani, rebuked American and British officials for their ‘disgraceful comments’ about the demonstrations, according to the state-run PressTV. The criticisms of Iran’s action were ‘disgustingly vivid that they clarify where this movement stands when it comes to destroying religious and revolutionary values,’ he said.” – New York Times

Editorial: “Even during war, Iranian governments have honored the prohibitions against violence during a two-month period surrounding Ashura. Tehran’s current rulers have proved again that their only belief is in their own survival. On Sunday, the police opened fire on a crowd of protesters, reportedly killing at least 10 people, and arrested hundreds more. Government forces are also believed to be behind the assassination of Ali Moussavi, nephew of the opposition leader Mir Hussein Moussavi, the leading candidate in June’s fraudulent presidential election. On Monday, opposition Web sites reported that several opposition figures were detained, including former Foreign Minister Ibrahim Yazdi; Emad Baghi, a human rights activist; and three of Mr. Moussavi’s top aides.” – New York Times

“Diplomats are concerned about an intelligence report that says Iran is trying to import 1,350 tons of purified uranium ore from Kazakhstan in violation of U.N. Security Council sanctions. Such a deal would be significant because Tehran appears to be running out of that material, which it needs to feed its uranium enrichment program. A summary of the report obtained by the Associated Press on Tuesday said the deal could be completed within weeks. It said Tehran was willing to pay $450 million, or close to €315 million, for the shipment.” – AP

Afghanistan

“The Afghan government said Tuesday it had reached a consensus to hold parliamentary elections this spring over the objections of international organizations and Western governments who fear a repeat of the fraud that tainted last summer’s presidential vote.” – New York Times

“The killing of at least nine men in a remote valley of eastern Afghanistan by a joint operation of Afghan and American forces put President Hamid Karzai and senior NATO officials at odds on Monday over whether those killed had been civilians or Taliban insurgents. In a statement e-mailed to the news media, Mr. Karzai condemned the weekend attack and said the dead had been civilians, eight of them schoolboys. He called for an investigation.” – New York Times

China

Wei Jingsheng writes: “Last week, a moderate reformist in China, Liu Xiaobo, was sentenced to 11 years in prison by the Chinese government for the mere act of organizing and signing a petition, Charter 08, calling for political reform and the basic human rights much of the world already enjoys. The message was clear for all those who sought restraint from a newly powerful China that now sits prominently at the tables of global governance: Since you made a fuss about releasing Mr. Liu after his arrest, we will punish him even more severely. In no uncertain terms, that will let you know that not only don’t we care what you think, but we don’t have to.” – New York Times

“In a report that underscores the depth of official corruption in China, auditors discovered that 234.7 billion yuan ($34.3 billion) disappeared from public funds in the first 11 months of this year, state media reported. Cases involving 67 senior officials and 164 others were handed over to judicial authorities.” – Wall Street Journal

Minxin Pei writes: “The question is: what kind of great power is China?... for the foreseeable future, China will be, at best, only an economic superpower by virtue of its role as one of the world’s greatest trading powers….Its geopolitical and military influence, meanwhile, will remain constrained by internal fragilities and external rivalry.  While China will always have a seat at the table on the global stage, its willingness and capacity to exercise leadership will most likely disappoint those who expect Beijing to behave like a superpower. It’s not that China doesn’t want to be a superpower. The simple truth is that it is not, and will not be one.” – The Diplomat

India

“India got closer to deploying a nuclear-powered submarine by mid-2010 after the Russian Navy formally inducted the Akula-II class attack submarine `K-152 Nerpa' on Monday. The over 12,000-tonne Nerpa is to be leased to Indian Navy for a 10-year period under a secret contract inked between India and Russia, along with the $1.5 billion package deal for refit of aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov and 16 MiG-29K fighters in January 2004.” – Times of India

Russia

Sergei Karaganov writes: “Russians…emphasize their ‘hard power,’ including military force, because they know that they live in a dangerous world and have no one to hide behind. In addition, because of the country’s comparative lack of ‘soft power’ — social, cultural and economic attractiveness — it stands ready to use the competitive advantages (that is, its resource wealth) available to it. Internal political developments in Russia are also pushing the country in a different direction from the West. Quite simply, Russia is moving away from democracy. This emerging values gap is not an insurmountable obstacle to geostrategic rapprochement. But coupled with mutual irritation, which is particularly strong in Russia, closing the gap is becoming much harder.” – Moscow Times

The War

Editorial: “Apparently the fellows in al Qaeda took as a personal insult Secretary of Homeland Anxiety Janet Napolitano's comment Sunday that their role in the foiled Detroit airliner bombing wasn't clear but would be investigated.…The terrorist organization put out a pointed statement not only claiming responsibility but also mocking the U.S.'s ability to stop them….What this means is that we have to think more broadly about jihad and the potential recruitment of terrorists anywhere in the world, including inside the United States. We and our European allies have to revisit the problem of fiery imams using mosques as recruitment depots for airline suicide bombers.” – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: “Suppose that, in several London universities, Right‑wing student societies were allowed to invite neo-Nazi speakers to address teenagers. Meanwhile, churches in poor white neighbourhoods handed over their pulpits to Jew-hating admirers of Adolf Hitler, called for the execution of homosexuals, preached the intellectual inferiority of women, and blessed the murder of civilians. …Jihadist Islamism is also a murderous ideology, comparable to Nazism in many respects.… Yet because it arises out of a worldwide religion – most of whose followers are peaceful – politicians and the public sector shrink from treating its ideologues as criminal supporters of violence. Instead, the Government throws vast sums of money at the Muslim community .…This policy – supported by all the main political parties – does not seem to be working.” – The Telegraph

Venezuela

“Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez said in a New Year's message the ‘illusion’ around President Barack Obama was over and rich nations had left the world on the verge of ecological disaster….Chavez initially sought to foster good ties with Obama, shaking his hand and giving him a book at a regional summit. But he has been increasingly critical of late, saying Obama failed to curb ‘imperialist’ policies in Afghanistan and Iraq, and was tolerant toward a coup leader in Honduras. ‘Let's not kid ourselves: the Obama illusion has finished, and the shameless interventionism of the American administration shows that,’ wrote Chavez.” – Reuters

Western Europe

“The Greek government has pushed the country to the brink of national bankruptcy, threatening the whole euro zone as a result. But the elite believes that other members of the EU's currency union will pay up -- despite widespread inefficiency and corruption.” – Der Spiegel