FPI Overnight Brief: December 11, 2009

Pakistan

A high-ranking Al Qaeda figure reportedly was killed Thursday in a U.S. drone aircraft attack in north Pakistan. The attack, first reported by NBC News, was officially denied by Pakistani officials, though sources told Fox News that neither Usama bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahiri were among those killed. Pakistani media report six militants were killed in the attack, including four foreign fighters, a classification in the tribal areas that typically refers to Al Qaeda. The attack was part of the expanded use of Predator drones recently authorized by the White House, sources told Fox News, though the drone attacks, which began during the Bush Administration, never have been officially confirmed because of political sensitivity in Pakistan. – Fox News

Five Americans from the Washington, D.C., suburbs developed Internet contacts with al Qaeda operatives and were preparing to go to Pakistan's lawless tribal areas to join a militant-training camp when they were arrested this week, Pakistani officials said Thursday. The men -- who are students in their 20s -- appear to have come together as members of a youth group at the Islamic Circle of North America Mosque in Alexandria, Va., said Imam Johari, a member of the executive committee for the Coordinating Council of Muslim Organizations for the Washington area. Pakistani authorities arrested the men Monday in the Pakistani garrison town of Sargodha at a house belonging to the family of one of the men. U.S. and Pakistani officials struggled Thursday to square the image of committed terrorists with that of typical students, busy with books and deadlines. – Wall Street Journal

Afghanistan

Stephen J. Hadley writes: President Obama has embraced a strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan that deserves bipartisan support. Its success is crucial to the security of our nation and that of our allies. The Obama administration's just-completed review seeks to deal with a situation that has further deteriorated this year. Equally important as more troops is the strategy of using these troops to provide security for the Afghan people, operating space for the accompanying "civilian surge" and an opportunity for Afghans to build their own governmental and security institutions. It will take time and great effort, but we can succeed by convincing friends, foes and our own forces that we are committed to success and will not fail; motivating and enabling the Afghan government and people to accept greater responsibility for their future; and helping Pakistan in its effort to put down its own Taliban threat and control its territory. – Washington Post

Obama Administration

President Barack Obama accepted the Nobel Peace Prize Thursday with an embrace of armed might in the service of a "just war," a sharp change in emphasis from his past rhetoric criticizing the foreign policy of the Bush years. The address set a new tone for his young administration, which been accused by foreign-policy hawks of being too accommodating to overseas powers and too quick to seek favor abroad. Mr. Obama made a muscular defense of American action against enemies, and recognized the existence of "evil" in the globe and the inherent fallibility of human impulses -- core principles of a more traditionally conservative foreign policy. – Wall Street Journal

FPI board director Robert Kagan blogs: Wow. What a shift of emphasis. Something about this Afghan decision, coupled perhaps with events in Iran, has really affected his approach.  I don't know what to say about an "Obama doctrine," because based on this speech, I think we are witnessing a substantial shift, back in the direction of a more muscular moralism, a la, Truman, Reagan. The emphasis on military power, war for just causes, and moral principles recalls Theodore Roosevelt's phrase, "the just man armed." There is something much more quintessentially American and traditional about this speech, compared to most of his rhetorical approach throughout the year. It's always dangerous to draw too many conclusions from a speech, but this is a big one. – Politico

Iran

Danielle Pletka writes:  The word "inevitable" has crept into most discussions of sanctions on Iran; even the Russians have used it. National Security Adviser Jim Jones says that the "window is closing" for Iran to accept the international community's offer to begin enrichment abroad and avoid international censure. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton memorably warned Iran last April of "crippling sanctions" if Tehran persisted in its illicit nuclear program. But there is one word we don't hear in connection with possible Iran sanctions: effective. With the Islamic Republic getting closer and closer to enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, only a game-changing set of coordinated and punitive economic and political measures can force the regime to make unpalatable choices. But that will require America and her allies to toss the old sanctions playbook and explore new ideas. – Wall Street Journal

The United Nations says more than 4,200 Iranians world-wide have sought refugee status since Iran's controversial June presidential vote and bloody street violence. This provincial Turkish town -- near the famed carved-rock dwellings of Cappadocia that harbored outcasts in millennia past -- is home to 543 Iranians seeking asylum. After sometimes spending weeks hiding in and hopping between safe houses, Iranians have turned up in countries as far away as Australia, Canada and Sweden. They typically seek refugee status. "What good can a lawyer do in Iran if she is in jail?" says Nikahang Kousar, an Iranian political cartoonist in Toronto who formed an "underground railroad" of sorts to advise and assist other Iranians trying to leave Iran… Iran's refugee exodus is exacerbating a brain drain that has stunted the country's development for years. Mr. Dabashi, the Columbia professor, says he has fielded hundreds of inquiries from students in Iran wanting to study overseas -- more than 20 times the rate of previous years. "It's mind-boggling how many extremely accomplished young people are trying to come abroad," he says. – Wall Street Journal

The United States will not sit silently by and ignore what happens on the streets of Tehran, the U.S. deputy assistant secretary for Iran at the State Department said Thursday. John Limbert, who was among diplomats held hostage by radical students at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran 30 years ago, told CNN's Christiane Amanpour, "We believe as we have always believed that the Iranian people deserve decent treatment from their government." His comments came on the same day that U.S. President Barack Obama, during a lecture in Oslo, Norway, after he received his Nobel Peace Prize, declared the world is bearing witness to the struggle for rights and justice in countries such as Iran. The president, in a departure from his prepared remarks, said, "These movements of hope and history, they have us on their side." He used the word "us," while the text of his speech said, "hope and history are on their side." – CNN

Iran's intelligence minister has denounced senior clerics who support the opposition, saying they stand against the Islamic republic's leadership. Iran's state-run news agency said Heydar Moslehi singled out influential Iranian cleric and former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, during remarks to pro-government clerics in the city of Qom on Wednesday… Intelligence Minister Moslehi says prominent clerics "who rose against the supreme leader" have infiltrated top leadership ranks.  He warned those who criticized the government would no longer be within a "safe margin."  Moslehi added authorities would investigate allegations that former President Rafsanjani's son was involved in the post-election unrest. – Voice of America

Defense

As it mobilizes for an Afghanistan troop buildup, the US Army will have to delay plans to allow war-weary soldiers more time at home between combat tours, the chief military officer said Thursday. Admiral Mike Mullen acknowledged that while the Marine Corps will reach in 2010 the Pentagon's goal of increasing "dwell time" to two years at home for every year deployed, "it'll take a couple more years to do that" for the army. Senior commanders have struggled to ease the strain on the army and the marines amid rising rates of depression, divorce and suicide believed to be fueled by repeated deployments. – AFP

Tibet

As President Barack Obama prepares to accept the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo, the Dalai Lama told Sky News he believes the award is "a little early" and cautioned the U.S. president against relying too much on his advisers. The exiled Tibetan leader won the Nobel prize 20 years ago for his peaceful opposition to Chinese rule in his country…. The Dalai Lama told Sky News: "I think if you are realistic, it may have been a little early but it doesn't matter, I know Obama is a very able person. Sometimes these individual persons rely on different advice from different people so like former President Bush junior, as a human being I really love him, really wonderful person, very honest, very truthful. "But I think due to his advisers' views, some of his policies have been a disaster." Obama declined to meet the Dalai Lama during a recent visit to Washington, with observers pointing out it may have been awkward to do so just before the president travelled to China. – SkyNews

Denmark will oppose Tibetan independence and carefully consider China's reaction before inviting the Dalai Lama again, Copenhagen said Thursday in a diplomatic note to Beijing. "Denmark is fully aware of the importance and sensitivity of Tibet-related issues and attaches great importance to the view of the Chinese government on these issues," the note said. "Denmark takes very seriously the Chinese opposition to meetings between members of the Danish Government and the Dalai Lama, and has duly noted Chinese views that such meetings are against the core interest of China, and will handle such issues prudently. "In this regard, Denmark reaffirms its One-China Policy and its unchanged position that Tibet is an integral part of China. Denmark recognises China?s sovereignty over Tibet and accordingly opposes the independence of Tibet." – AFP

Iraq

Awash with oil, Iraq is poised to ink several mega oil deals that will vault it into the top ranks of world oil producers, but the war-shattered country is back to grappling massive power shortages after a brief respite. Peak winter consumption of electricity due to heaters being run has resulted in what appears to be a near collapse of the public power supply - those without generators to light their homes are only getting a few hours of electricity per day… Years of war, sanctions and underinvestment have severely degraded Iraq's power grid and plants. Intermittent electricity, especially in the searing heat of the Iraqi summer, is a source of endless anger for Iraqis who live on top of the world's third largest oil reserves. – New York Times

North Korea

President Obama's envoy to North Korea said Thursday that his journey to Pyongyang produced no commitment that the North would return to international talks aimed at ridding the country of nuclear weapons. But Stephen W. Bosworth, after a three-day visit that marked the first high-level contact between the Obama administration and the government of Kim Jong Il, said his conversations had established a "common understanding" of the need for negotiations… In the past, the United States has often rewarded North Korea with food, fuel or diplomatic concessions in return for refraining from bad behavior. This time, though, Obama administration officials have maintained that they would offer North Korea no rewards for merely "going back to doing something that it had previously committed to do." – Washington Post

Australia

Australia's prime minister threatened legal action against Japan on Friday if it does not stop its research whaling program that kills up to 1,000 whales a year. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's comments came as the Australian Broadcasting Corp. quoted Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada as saying in an interview that Japan has no plans to halt its killing of whales in the Antarctic. "We don't accept Japan's premise for those terms of so-called scientific whaling," Rudd told Australia's Fairfax Radio Network. "If we cannot resolve this matter diplomatically, we will take international legal action. I've said that before — I'm serious about it." – The AP

Japan

Fred Hiatt writes: U.S.-Japan relations are in "crisis," Japan's foreign minister told me Thursday -- but I would guess that few Americans have noticed, let alone felt alarm. As China rises, Japan's economy has stalled, and its population is dwindling. The island nation -- feared during the last century first as a military power, then as an economic conqueror -- barely registers in the American imagination. But Japan still matters. And despite the "crisis" set in motion by the electoral defeat of the party that had ruled for half a century, the United States has more to fear from Japanese defeatism -- from its own uncertainty about whether it still matters -- than from the assertiveness of its new government. – Washington Post