FPI Afternoon Round-Up: December 9, 2009

Afghanistan

“The U.S. general in charge of the Afghanistan war assured lawmakers Tuesday that an additional 30,000 troops, combined with changes in the overall war strategy, would trigger a demonstrable change on the ground before U.S. forces start to come home in 18 months. ‘By the summer of 2011, it will be clear to the Afghan people that the insurgency will not win, giving them the chance to side with their government,’ Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal said.” – Washington Post

“The American commander in charge of training the Afghan security forces said Wednesday that there had been a recent wave of recruits for the Afghan Army, most likely because of a pay increase that he said put salaries close to those of Taliban fighters. The commander, Lt. Gen. William B. Caldwell IV, said that an Afghan soldier in a high-combat area like Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan would now make a starting salary of $240 a month, up from $180. General Caldwell said that the Taliban often paid insurgents $250 to $300 a month.” – New York Times

Pakistan

Tarek Fatah writes: “A military coup is unfolding in Pakistan, but, this time, there is no rumbling of tanks on the streets of Islamabad. Instead, it seems the military is using a new strategy for regime change in Pakistan, one that will have adverse consequences for Western troops deployed in Afghanistan. A year after rogue elements of Pakistan's intelligence services disrupted Indian-Pakistani peace talks by staging the Mumbai massacre, the democratically elected government of President Asif Zardari is facing a putsch from within its ranks, engineered by the men who run Pakistan's infamous military-industrial complex. The men who wish to replace Mr. Zardari represent the religious right-wing backers of the Taliban and al-Qaeda, adding a new obstacle in Barack Obama's war effort in Afghanistan.” – Globe and Mail

Richard Miniter and Sebastian Gorka write: “On Friday, the Obama administration cleared the way for more drone attacks from the skies of Pakistan. Yet that can't be the extent of the new strategy for dealing with the tribal areas of Pakistan, where many terrorists hide. No one favors invading Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Lands. Even Pakistan's own army has foundered there. But both the Bush and Obama administrations have overlooked another option: engaging the tribes that inhabit both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border. With the help of a handful of US Special Forces, the tribes could drive al Qaeda and Taliban terrorists from their hideouts and defeat them.” – New York Post

Simon Tisdall writes: “Immensely problematic though Afghanistan has become, Pakistan is emerging as a far bigger, potentially more dangerous challenge to western security interests, officials and analysts in Kabul say. The west's central dilemma is how to obtain Islamabad's full support in ‘degrading’ al-Qaida, Taliban and other militant Islamist groups on both sides of the Durand line – the British-designated de facto Afghan-Pakistani border – without fatally undermining the Pakistani government's legitimacy in the eyes of its own people.” – Guardian

Iran

Abbas Djavadi writes: “Iran's President Mahmud Ahmadinejad believes and acts on the expectation that the reappearance of the Hidden Imam is imminent, and that U.S. efforts in the Middle East are primarily focused on preventing his return. Ahmadinejad and his supporters believe the best preparation for the Mahdi's reappearance is the consolidation of an absolutist regime that brutally suppresses all real and potential opposition, from moderate and reformist pro-regime forces to nationalist and democratic individuals and groups.” – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Editorial: “Witnesses also report students chanting: ‘This government is fascist, it must stop at some point.’ Through their statements, the disillusionment of Iran’s youth with the Islamic regime is clear….Guns, tear gas and the images of bleeding protesters can only be maintained for so long before the slow-turning wheels of government grind to a halt as the dissatisfaction of the people mounts. And while Iran’s leadership may point the finger at meddlesome outsiders as it struggles to maintain control, it’s accusations are unfounded…. this political movement is wholly Iranian; and so too must be its conclusion.” – The National

Ian Black argues: “Europeans tend to feel that Obama’s ‘outreach’ to Iran went too far too fast without seeing any return. That perception will affect their responses to the president’s promised policy ‘reassessment’ at year’s end. So will detailed work on sanctions and their effect on the internal situation in Iran. What is unlikely to change in Europe is adamant opposition to any military action, by the United States or Israel.” – Daily Star

Editorial: “Student protests Monday against the Iranian regime, and against the vicious representation captured in cellphone videos, bear one message for Iran’s leaders and another for President Obama. The regime - which has come to resemble a military junta more than a clerical theocracy - continues to deny the import of the protesters’ resistance. President Obama need not do the same. Even while continuing to pursue a negotiated resolution of the conflict over Iran’s nuclear program, Obama ought to express Americans’ solidarity with the democratic movement in Iran. The students there, playing on the meaning of Obama’s name in Persian (‘he’s with us’), have been chanting to him: Either you are with us or you are with them. The right choice could not be more obvious.” – Boston Globe

Iraq

“Only last week, Baghdad's residents were told that violence is at the lowest level since 2003. But the war is not over. The Sunnis who started fighting the Americans six years ago have lost, yet refuse to give up. Tens of thousands of former guerrillas, known as ‘Sons of Iraq’, were integrated into the security forces over a year ago, but in recent months no more insurgents have been enticed into joining the legitimate political process. Instead, the remnants of the once-mighty insurgency are intent on paralysing the Shia-dominated government. They have done so fairly successfully. Government buildings across the city emptied even before the last explosion was heard on Tuesday. Civil servants live in such fear that the sound of a car backfiring is sometimes enough to clear a ministry.” – The Economist

China

E. Perry Link writes: “A year ago, on the 60th anniversary of the unveiling of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 303 Chinese announced ‘Charter 08,’ a citizens' manifesto calling for constitutional democracy, human rights, rule of law and tripartite separation of powers in government. It was the first public statement in the history of the People's Republic of China to call for an end to one-Party rule….Eventually more than 10,000 people inside China signed on to it, and countless others who read it feared to sign….The record of the Charter's first year has left its drafters in fairly high spirits. Some may have lost books, computers and bank accounts—and one is in jail. But, as Zhang Zuhua writes on the Internet, ‘the overall response has been much better than we imagined.’” – Wall Street Journal

Alexandra Harney argues: “But if the goal of traditional industrial policy is to invest in companies and turn them into global dynamos, China has a long way to go. More than half of Chinese exports are made by companies with significant foreign investment. Although Lenovo and Haier have made laudable strides overseas, Beijing has yet to produce a truly international brand along the lines of Japan's Sony or Toyota. And it has struggled to consolidate its automotive, steel, aluminum, and coal-mining industries.” – Foreign Policy

Martin Wolf argues: “First, whatever the Chinese may feel, the degree of protectionism directed at their exports has been astonishingly small, given the depth of the recession. Second, the policy of keeping the exchange rate down is equivalent to an export subsidy and tariff, at a uniform rate – in other words, to protectionism. Third, having accumulated $2,273bn in foreign currency reserves by September, China has kept its exchange rate down, to a degree unmatched in world economic history. Finally, China has, as a result, distorted its own economy and that of the rest of the world. Its real exchange rate is, for example, no higher than in early 1998 and has depreciated by 12 per cent over the past seven months, even though China has the world’s fastest-growing economy and largest current account surplus.” – Financial Times

North Korea

“North Korea on Wednesday acknowledged for the first time that it has domestic cases of Influenza, raising international concern that the virus may spread rapidly among its impoverished population. The report by the North's Korean Central News Agency said nine people have contracted the H1N1 virus. Seoul officials said they have relayed a message to the North offering aid to help fight the new flu.” – Yonhap News

John Park and Drew Thompson argue: “As long as Pyongyang allows Chinese investments to continue, Beijing will encourage more companies to trade with North Korean partners. Beijing’s goal is to keep the North Korean regime afloat. It is also seeking greater access to resources and to increase its influence over Pyongyang….Unfortunately, if China continues to prioritise friendly commercial relations with North Korea and Iran, it will threaten its own long-term security. A chronically proliferating North Korea would provoke Japan to reassess the need for a nuclear deterrent, while a nuclear-armed Iran could destabilise the Gulf and global energy markets.”– Financial Times

Japan

“A rift between the United States and Japan over the future of a military air station on Okinawa widened Tuesday, as Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada told Japanese media that talks on relocating the base have been suspended. The report offers additional evidence that the newly elected government of Japan is uncomfortable with the military footprint of the United States. Most of the 36,000 U.S. military personnel in Japan are based on the southern island of Okinawa.” – Washington Post

Australia

“Australia is becoming China's mine shaft and its pantry, and that didn't just spare Australia from the grip of the global recession, which crumpled so many other developed countries: It changed the relationship between China and Australia, one of the United States' most loyal allies. ‘The global financial crisis has confirmed we are economically dependent on China, not the U.S.,’ Carr said Monday at the Macquarie Asia-Pacific Infrastructure & Transportation Conference in Hong Kong. In many ways, the mutual dependency that Australia and China now share is far healthier than the codependency between the U.S. and China. The Australia-China trade enlarges the economic pie for both nations.” – Forbes

Philippines

“The Philippine government and an Islamic separatist group are on a ‘fast track’ to signing a peace deal that would end a decades-long conflict, the Malaysian hosts of the talks have said. Othman Abdul Razak, the Malaysian facilitator, said negotiators hope to secure a deal with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front [MILF] by March or April.” – Al Jazeera

Europe/Russia

“Production jobs have been moving out of Europe for years. But as the Daimler decision last week to move C-Class production to the US shows, the process is accelerating as the dollar becomes weaker. Companies from Airbus to ThyssenKrupp are opening factories in America to improve their bottom lines.” – Der Spiegel

Greece

“Greece has been warned by a top European Central Bank policymaker that it has a year to bring public finances back under control or risk having its bonds disqualified for use as collateral by banks borrowing ECB liquidity. The comments by Axel Weber, Germany’s Bundesbank president, intensify the pressure on the new Socialist government in Athens following revelations that its budget is in a far worse shape than previously feared.” – Financial Times

France

“Faced with swelling unease over the place of Muslim immigrants in France, President Nicolas Sarkozy called Tuesday for tolerance among native French people but warned that arriving Muslims must embrace Europe's historical values and avoid "ostentation or provocation" in the practice of their religion.” – Washington Post

Ideas

Bjorn Lomborg writes: “Media organisations in wealthy countries regularly send forth reporters to find ‘victims of global warming’. In dispatches from the Pacific Islands, Bangladesh, or Ethiopia, journalists warn of impending calamity. Global warming is the most horrific challenge facing these regions, we are told. Its resolution is vital. But seldom do we hear from the local people who are said to be in danger. These people are not voiceless; we just pay no attention to what they say….Campaigners for carbon-emission reductions highlight the melting snow and ice of Mount Kilimanjaro. But we need to pay as much attention to the people living in the mountain’s shadow.” – The National