FPI Overnight Brief: December 1, 2009

Afghanistan

President Obama will outline Tuesday his intention to send an additional 34,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan, according to U.S. officials and diplomatic sources briefed Monday as Obama began informing allies of his plan. The new deployments, along with 22,000 troops he authorized early this year, would bring the total U.S. force in Afghanistan to more than 100,000, more than half of which will have been sent to the war zone by Obama. The president also plans to ask NATO and other partners in an international coalition to contribute 5,000 additional troops to Afghanistan, officials said. The combined U.S. and NATO deployments would nearly reach the 40,000 requested last summer by U.S. Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the coalition commander in Afghanistan, as part of an intensified counterinsurgency strategy. – Washington Post

The revised strategy for Afghanistan that President Obama will announce Tuesday is expected to focus new resources on training Afghan security forces and shoring up the central government, an approach certain to revive a debate about the possibilities and the limits of nation-building. From Somalia, Cambodia, East Timor and the Balkans in the 1990s to Iraq today, world powers have at best a mixed record when it comes to establishing functional, stable governments in countries devastated by war. The efforts have been long and costly, tangible results often hard to measure, and support for a prolonged involvement difficult to maintain. – Washington Post

Afghan officials hope President Barack Obama's address on Afghanistan won't be weighted too heavily on an exit strategy — even though that's the message many Americans and Democrats in Congress want to hear. If he talks extensively in his speech Tuesday night about winding down the war, Afghans fear the Taliban will simply bide their time until the Americans abandon the country much as Washington did after the Soviets left 20 years ago. That move plunged the nation into civil war and paved the way for al-Qaida and the Sept. 11 attacks. Similarly, in neighboring Pakistan, too much talk of a finite U.S. troop presence gives commanders little reason to help fight Afghan militants — the very people they might eventually need to embrace as allies if the international community fails to secure Afghanistan and the Taliban retake Kabul. – The AP

The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday set aside a lower court's ruling that had ordered the release of photographs showing American soldiers abusing prisoners in Iraq and Afghanistan. The high court's action, which had been expected, occurred after the U.S. Congress recently approved a provision to exempt the photographs from disclosure, a measure that President Barack Obama signed into law. The justices sent the case back to a U.S. appeals court in New York for further consideration in light of the new law and the recent certification by Defense Secretary Robert Gates that release of the photographs would endanger American soldiers. – Reuters

Iraq

The civilian death toll in Iraq fell to its lowest level in November since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion as bombings receded, defying predictions of a spike in violence before an election next year, officials said today. Eighty-eight civilians were killed this month in violence, Health Ministry data showed, the first time the monthly bodycount has dropped below 100."These statistics are the lowest since the invasion," said an Interior Ministry official, asking not to be identified. – Reuters

More than six and a half years after the United States-led invasion here that many believed was about oil, the major oil companies are finally gaining access to Iraq’s petroleum reserves. But they are doing so at far less advantageous terms than they once envisioned. The companies seem to have calculated that it is worth their while to accept deals with limited profit opportunities now, in order to cash in on more lucrative development deals in the future, oil industry analysts say. – New York Times

Kosovo

Nearly two years after the newest country in the world declared independence, outside powers are still firmly in control. About 14,000 NATO troops are on hand to keep the peace, a decade after their arrival to protect Kosovars from annihilation by next-door Serbia. With just 2 million people in Kosovo, that's more than twice as many foreign soldiers, per capita, as are currently deployed in the NATO-led coalition in Afghanistan. The economy is a basket case, with a 45 percent unemployment rate. Most people are dependent on foreign largess… And yet, in spite of its problems and growing pains, Kosovo is cited by many diplomats as a credible model of nation-building, a sign -- relevant to the current debate over Afghanistan -- that a determined effort by foreigners can help to build a country from the ashes. After years of ethnic conflict, security and stability are taking root. Predictions that independence would lead to revenge killings by the ethnic Albanian majority against ethnic Serbs, who make up an estimated 7 percent of the population, proved overblown. Early next year, NATO is expected to draw down its forces by one-third. – Washington Post

North Korea

North Korea has sharply raised the value of its currency, its first such move in 17 years, in an apparent bid to tackle inflation and curb black market trading, sources said Tuesday… The exchange rate for new currency is 100 to 1, in which the old denomination of 1,000 won is replaced by the new 10 won, the sources said, speaking on strict condition of anonymity. According to the North's fixed exchange rate before the adjustment, a U.S. dollar was equal to 135 North Korean won. The drastic revaluation disturbed the local market, the North Korean sources said.  "Many citizens in Pyongyang were taken aback and in confusion. Those who were worried about their hidden assets rushed to the black market to exchange them with yuan or U.S. dollars. The yuan and the dollar jumped," one of the sources said. – Yonhap

Russia

The United States is about to lose a key arms-control tool from the closing days of the Cold War -- the right to station American observers in Russia to count the long-range missiles leaving its assembly line. The end of full-time, on-site access will likely ignite complaints in Congress, with insiders from both parties arguing over whether the George W. Bush or the Obama administration is responsible. Republicans are worried by the previously undisclosed agreement between the Obama administration and the Kremlin in October, which formalizes the inspectors' departure this Saturday. This, they warn, would cripple Washington's ability to police Moscow's compliance with agreed reductions in its nuclear arsenal. – Washington Times

Ivan Krastev writes: Obama himself is largely viewed in Russia as the American Mikhail Gorbachev, but Russians are less impressed than other Europeans have been with Obama's brilliance and rock-star popularity. They remember the Gorbi-mania that conquered the globe at the moment the Soviet Union was about to crumble. Russians are tempted to view Obama's global reformism and his progressive agenda as an expression of American weakness and not as an expression of America's regained strength and legitimacy…First, it means that Russians will not be in a hurry to respond to the positive signals coming from Washington, and any perception of Washington weakness will diminish Moscow's willingness to cooperate even in areas of common interest and common concern. It is not Obama's deference but his strength that can persuade the Kremlin to cooperate with Washington. Simply put, to persuade Russians to join him, Obama must first demonstrate that he does not need them. He needs a clear victory, whether against the Taliban in Afghanistan, Iran's nuclear ambition or Beijing's habit of devaluing its currency. Obama must show strength for the "reset" policy to succeed. – Washington Post

Honduras

The United States split with some of its Latin American allies Monday over whether to recognize the results of Honduras's presidential election, with Washington commending the balloting but Brazil saying the vote will not erase the stain of a coup. The winner, Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo, a conservative businessman, has promised to promote reconciliation in this impoverished country, which was thrown into turmoil when the military exiled President Manuel Zelaya on June 28. But many Hondurans consider it unlikely that their internationally recognized president will be allowed to serve out the remainder of his term, which ends in January. Zelaya's return had been the goal of an aggressive campaign by the U.S. government and the rest of the hemisphere. But Honduran and U.S. officials concede that the Honduran congress is likely to vote Wednesday against reinstating Zelaya, who had alarmed many here by embracing Venezuela's anti-American president, Hugo Chávez. – Washington Post

Iran

Iran’s most senior cleric denounced the role of the volunteer militia force known as the Basij in the crackdown against protesters, saying the force’s actions were against religion and “in the path of Satan.” The cleric, Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, condemned the force in a statement posted on an opposition Web site, mowjcamp.com, decreeing that “the assailants have acted against religion and must pay blood money” to those who were wounded or to their families. It was the harshest criticism of the militia to date by the ayatollah, who has sided with the opposition leaders. The Basij militia has played an instrumental role in the crackdown; the opposition has said that at least 73 people have been killed since the post-election protests began in June. – New York Times

Iran has given the Revolutionary Guards Corps command over naval operations in the oil-rich Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz as part of a strategy to block access to vital sea lanes in the event of a war, according to a US intelligence study. The military reorganization launched in 2007 transfers responsibility for the Gulf from the regular navy to the elite Guards' naval force, which has an arsenal of small, high-speed boats and cruise missiles, said the study by the US Office of Naval Intelligence. – AFP

Five British sailors were being held hostage by Iran last night after they were snatched from their racing yacht in the Gulf. They were seized last Wednesday by the crew of an Iranian naval vessel in a troubling echo of the kidnap of 15 Royal Navy personnel in 2007… It appears that the high-tech yacht was swept towards Iran by strong winds after its propeller was damaged. – Daily Mail

Japan

Yukiya Amano, a disarmament negotiator for the only nation attacked with nuclear weapons, faces immediate tests from a defiant Iran and provocative North Korea as he takes over the International Atomic Energy Agency today from Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei. Amano, 62, handled nuclear proliferation issues for Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs for three decades. He joined the IAEA’s 35-member board of governors in September 2005 and was elected the agency’s director general in July… “Iran seems to be saying its last ‘goodbye’ to ElBaradei and saying ‘hello’ to Amano,” said Takehiko Yamamoto, a professor of international relations at Waseda University in Tokyo. “There’s a tough road ahead of Amano, with his first and major task being to beef up the agency’s inspections of Iran’s nuclear sites and shoot down the country’s ambitious nuclear armament plans.” – Bloomberg

The Japanese government has decided to compile a fresh stimulus package this week to combat the effects of deflation and recent fluctuations in the currency markets, Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said Tuesday after a regular cabinet meeting. The package will include a second extra budget for this fiscal year to support the economy, but the size of the budget is yet to be made public. The government will also change regulations to create fresh demand within the economy, the finance minister said, but did not elaborate further. – Dow Jones

Syria

On Thursday Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said Syria was not fully co-operating with his investigation into uranium particles, found in the eastern desert at a site that Israel and the US claim was a secret nuclear reactor. Syria insists that the facility, which was destroyed in an Israeli air strike more than two years ago, was a conventional military base and that any uranium found there must have come from Israel’s bombs. In his statement to the IAEA’s board of directors in Vienna, Mr ElBaradei said Damascus had “not provided the co-operation necessary” to support its claim, either through documents or by granting access for follow-up inspections. – The National

Venezuela

Venezuela said Monday it will liquidate two banks owned by businessman Ricardo Fernandez and temporarily shut two others, intensifying a showdown between President Hugo Chávez and a billionaire long considered a close ally. Mr. Fernandez, who made an estimated $1.6 billion largely through government contracts, was seen by many Venezuelans as the epitome of the crony capitalism they say has flourished under Mr. Chávez. It is unclear why the government moved against him. Some analysts here believe Mr. Chávez wants to be seen as tough on corruption amid an economic downturn. Others suggest the arrest and bank closures represent a behind-the-scenes battle over this oil-rich state's lucrative spoils. – Wall Street Journal

Somalia

Somali pirates have seized a Greek-flagged oil tanker near the Seychelles, more than 1300km off the coast of Somalia, Greece’s coastguard has said. The 300,294-dwt Maran Centaurus was sailing from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia to the Gulf of Mexico with a crew of 28 when it was seized early yesterday. “About nine armed pirates attacked the tanker and seized it, 700 miles off the Somali coast, near the Seychelles,” said a coastguard official. – The National

Cuba

Renowned Cuban umpire Nelson Diaz defected to the United States on Sunday, The Associated Press reported on Monday. The Spanish-language newspaper El Nuevo Herald originally reported that Diaz arrived in Miami on Sunday with his wife and two daughters. Diaz worked the 2008 Olympics and the '06 World Baseball Classic and was slated to work the '09 Classic in Japan, but Cuban baseball officials told him he couldn't go because he couldn't be trusted. – MLB.com