FPI Bulletin: Changing Course in North Korea and Additional Resources
With the death of dictator Kim Jong-Il, the so-called "Hermit Kingdom" faces an uncertain future. Unfortunately, the White House's initial response has been to preserve–rather than challenge–the status quo with Pyongyang.
North Korea is a pariah state that has violated its international obligations to build nuclear weapons, proliferated nuclear and/or missile technologies to state sponsors of terror like Iran and Syria, and menaced America's longstanding allies in Northeast Asia. Rather than placate Pyongyang, the White House and Congress should work with international partners to increase diplomatic and economic pressure on the North Korea, with the aim of further isolating and weakening the rogue regime.
The following op-ed by FPI Executive Director Jamie M. Fly, as well as other suggested readings below, may be helpful to policymakers and lawmakers in understanding–and taking advantage of–the emerging opportunities created by North Korea's inner turmoil.
Seeking Instability – FPI Executive Director Jamie Fly – The Weekly Standard Blog – December 23, 2011
In response to press reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il died, the White House issued a statement on December 18th that said, “we remain committed to stability on the Korean peninsula, and to the freedom and security of our allies.” So, with the North Korean regime at perhaps its weakest point in decades, the Obama administration’s inclination is to maintain the status quo—or, in their words, “stability.
This is the Obama administration at its worst—unwilling to use developments, such as changing circumstances on the ground, to the United States’ advantage.
North Korea made its intentions clear after the president’s initial outreach in 2009, testing a long-range missile test just as the president was delivering a major speech on nonproliferation in Prague. A month later, North Korea conducted a nuclear test.
Despite its obsession with engaging rogue regimes, until recently, the administration generally gave North Korea the cold shoulder after its 2009 actions, developing a strategy of "strategic patience" with the North.
While less attention was probably what Pyongyang deserved after years of visits from Bush administration envoys desperate for a deal, the regime eventually lashed out, sinking a South Korean navy warship in March 2010 and shelling a South Korean island in November of the same year.
Shortly before Kim Jong Il’s death, reports emerged that the administration had been conducting secret negotiations with the North Koreans to trade food aid for assurances regarding Pyongyang’s illicit nuclear weapons program as well as a potential moratorium on missile tests. The plans, which would have reversed longstanding U.S. policy to avoid trading humanitarian aid for security concessions, resulted in more meetings between U.S. and North Korean officials, with a State Department official even telling reporters after Kim Jong Il's death that “we’re going to have to keep talking about this.”
But with the transition of power in North Korea to Kim Jong Eun and the generals, these negotiations should be put on hold.
The simple truth of the matter is that the only outcome that will guarantee U.S. and allied interests is regime change in Pyongyang. Unfortunately, successive administrations have been unwilling to state this obvious fact and have instead kicked the problem down the road, attempting to manage the situation rather than solve it.
But Kim Jong Il’s death and the ensuing uncertainty about North Korea's future presents perhaps the best opportunity in decades to tackle the problem head on.
Every economic and diplomatic tool in the U.S. arsenal should be deployed against the regime immediately. Leadership regime assets should be targeted, as should North Korea’s remaining banking links to the outside world. Efforts by the United States and its allies to prevent the proliferation of sensitive materials should be increased. Washington should inform Beijing that we are increasing strategic consultations with our allies South Korea and Japan given the uncertainty in the region and that China will be left out of these conversations unless they support our goal of resolving the North Korea problem once and for all.
Put simply, seeking “stability” is the wrong approach. Promoting instability in North Korea is the only way to ensure a better future for the North Korean people and American interests.
- It’s Time for the Lights to Come on In North Korea – FPI Policy Analyst Evan Moore – The Commentator – December 21, 2011
- North Korea: The Goal Is Regime Change – FPI Executive Director Jamie M. Fly – National Review Online’s The Corner – November 24, 2010
- Pressuring Pyongyang – FPI Executive Director Jamie M. Fly, Christian Whiton, and Carolyn Leddy – The Weekly Standard Blog – May 1, 2009
- Japan Needs a North Korea Reset – Michael Auslin – Wall Street Journal Asia (subscription required) – December 23, 2011
- Kim Jong Il: Road to ruin – Nicholas Eberstadt – Los Angeles Times – December 21, 2011
- Is There Any Way To Help the People of North Korea? – Tom Malinowski – The New Republic – December 21, 2011
- Breaking the Kim Dynasty – Editorial – Wall Street Journal – December 20, 2011
- The World's Most Repressive State – Melanie Kirkpatrick – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) – December 20, 2011
- ‘The Great Successor’– John Bolton – Wall Street Journal – December 20, 2011
- Containing the Young Kim – Sung-Yoon Lee and Sue Terry – Wall Street Journal Asia (subscription required) – December 20, 2011
- The Death of Kim Jong Il and North Korea’s Broken Dynasty – Nicholas Eberstadt – Foreign Affairs’ Snapshots – December 20, 2011
- Death in the DPRK – Michael Magan – Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government – December 20, 2011
- Is a Third-Generation Monster North Korea’s Destiny? – Editorial – Washington Post – December 19, 2011
- How the US Can Capitalize on Kim Jong-Il’s Death – Michael Mazza – The Daily Caller – December 19, 2011
- What Obama Should Tell China as Transition Unfolds in North Korea – Michael Auslin – FoxNews.com – December 19, 2011
- Channeling Havel in Korea – Charlie Szrom – National Review Online’s The Corner – December 19, 2011
- Tackling Pyongyang’s Proliferation Trade – Carolyn Leddy – Journal of International Security Affairs – Fall 2010
- It's Time for a Political War on Pyongyang – Christian Whiton – Wall Street Journal Asia (subscription required) – September 26, 2010
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