CNN Cites FPI Policy Director Robert Zarate's Research on Iran's & North Korea's Nuclear Programs

In "Deal or Dud: How Will History Judge Iran Agreement?" CNN.com's Tim Lister writes:

(CNN) -- The agreement reached between the international community and Iran over its nuclear program may be just a starting point, an interim deal to provide the space and mutual confidence for a more comprehensive agreement. But it breaks three decades of rancor and enmity between the United States and Iran, and just may be the first stepping stone toward a rapprochement of historic significance. The challenge now is to build on it. History is littered with great achievements set down on paper that have crumbled to dust -- overtaken by events or a fast-changing international landscape, by deception or because they were inherently flawed.

[...]

Writing in Foreign Policy magazine this week, Robert Zarate and Daniel Blumenthal recall that "North Korea used a series of quid pro quo agreements with the United States and partner countries to obtain sanctions relief or other sweeteners in return for promises to freeze or roll back elements of its nuclear weapons-making program -- promises that Pyongyang eventually broke."

North Korea ultimately abandoned the Framework and detonated its first nuclear device in 2006. Nor did its behavior in terms of proliferation activities and hostility toward South Korea improve.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has been at pains to stress the intrusive verification regime that accompanies this deal.

"It's a question of having the verification and the intrusive inspections and the insights in the program and the commitments that can be held accountable so that you are in fact creating a fail-safe mechanism," Kerry told CNN's State of the Union Sunday.

Robert Zarate, Policy Director of the Foreign Policy Initiative, is among those yet to be convinced. In a paper for the Non-Proliferation Policy Education Center this year, he argued that U.S. policy-makers essentially ignored intelligence on Iran and North Korea's nuclear programs that would have demanded a tougher response. By the time reality dawned, the danger was all the greater.

The same accusation was leveled at Neville Chamberlain in 1938.

Read the whole thing.

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